National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KGID 060533
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1132 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

THE FCST NOW HAS PATCHY FOG FROM HEBRON/GENEVA DOWN INTO N-CNTRL
KS. WHERE DAYTIME STRATUS DISSIPATED...VISIBILITIES ARE DROPPING.
HEBRON AND BELOIT ARE DOWN TO 5 MI. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE
INCREASING OVERNIGHT...SO WE ARE CONSERVATIVE.

OTHERWISE...A FINE NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT S WINDS.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 854 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST...CONTINUE TO THINK WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FAIRLY
MINIMAL...SO WENT AHEAD AND TRENDED DOWN LATEST FORECAST LOWS
SEVERAL DEGREES TO COME IN BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH 01Z RAP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS
FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK OVER OUR AREA...ONLY MAXING
OUT AT AROUND 55KTS NEAR 28000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM
KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED MID
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...AS WELL AS
INCREASED MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
FROM THE PACIFIC ALONG THE MID LEVEL JET AXIS. ALL THAT BEING
SAID...MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY
LACKING. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS
FROM THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WEST/SOUTHWEST INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD
ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN ALL
SUGGEST MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A RESULTANT LACK IN
OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND SUCH CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA WILL
SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA BY 06Z...WITH THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. RESULTANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WHEN
COMPARE TO LAST NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S FORECAST
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD THEN
PROMOTE A WARMER DAY ON THURSDAY WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS LIE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE
START AND END OF THE PERIOD...AND TEMPERATURES.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOWS MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...THE CWA SITS UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
GULF COAST AND A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COAST. DURING THE
THURS EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT
THAT WESTERN CONUS DISTURBANCE IS THE FEATURE OF INTEREST...AS IT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST...AND TOGETHER WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OVER CENTRAL CANADA...LOOK TO RESULT IN A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES N/NE TOWARD ONTARIO BY 12Z
FRIDAY. THE 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY PRESENT THE FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CWA...AND OVERALL THERE
HASNT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS...NOT BAD AGREEMENT BUT THERE REMAIN DETAILS TO BE WORKED
OUT. ONE OF THE FIRST QUESTIONS THAT ARISES IS WHEN DOES PRECIP
ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE CWA...MOST MODELS ARE TRENDED TOWARD THE
POTENTIAL CREEPING INTO FAR NWRN PORTION OF THE CWA ARND
MIDDAY..WITH THE ECMWF ON THE SLOWER SIDE. DECIDED TO INSERT JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP PRIOR TO 18Z...WITH POPS RAMPING UP FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS INCREASED LIFT ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE CWA. AT THIS
POINT...THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SC NEB...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR KS POST
00Z...THOUGH HOW MUCH WILL LINGER INTO THAT PERIOD REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN. DID BUMP UP POPS...MAINLY IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA ALREADY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MODEL TIMING NOT
IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE FRONT IN A SW/NE ORIENTATION
ROUGHLY HALFWAY THROUGH THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TRUCKING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...AND SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF
THE CWA NEAR MIDDAY...USHERING IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE
REGION. SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS OVER
30 MPH EXPECTED. WITH COLDER AIR ALSO ADVECTING IN FROM THE
NORTH...THINKING THAT HIGHS FOR THE DAY /CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH/ WILL BE MET EARLY ON...PERHAPS
NEAR MIDDAY...WITH STEADY/FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. PRECIPITATION TYPE CERTAINLY ISNT CLEAR CUT AT THIS
POINT...WITH RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED TO START
OFF...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM N TO S...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT TIMING IS NOT HIGH. AT THIS POINT THINKING THAT
THE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY SNOW. AS FAR AS
ACCUMULATIONS GO...THE TIMING OF THE TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW
/OR LACK OF/ IS OBVIOUSLY GOING TO PLAY A BIG PART...BUT AT THIS
POINT HAVE TOTALS IN THE HALF INCH TO 1 INCH RANGE.

HAVE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BETTER FORCING
HAVING SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS STILL
OVER AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...AND
IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO GET THE COLDER AIR OUT...SO HIGHS ON
SATURDAY CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE MID 30S EAST /CLOSER TO THE SFC
HIGH/ AND MID 40S FURTHER WEST /WHERE WARMER AIR ALOFT IS STARTING
TO WORK IN/.

THEN COMES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...THESE TWO DAYS ARE
THE WARMEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME BROAD
RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BRINGING ALONG A NICE INCREASE
IN TEMPS ALOFT /PERHAPS UP TO 15C AT 850MB/. COMBINED WITH MORE
SUNSHINE...AND THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED SW/WRLY COMPONENT DEVELOPING
WITH THE WINDS...HAVE HIGHS IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS IN THE FORECAST.
A READING NEAR 70 NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE
SW...BUT NOT GOING QUITE THAT HIGH YET.

A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY ARISES IN THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS TO SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE
PLAINS. SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH
TIMING/LOCATION...SO DIDNT GO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS BOTH DAYS IS NOT HIGH...IF THE SYSTEM STAYS
CLOSER TO THE LATEST ECMWF RUN...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
LOWERED. PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

THRU 12Z: VFR SKC INITIALLY THEN SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS INVADE. S
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

THU: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS GRADUALLY BECOMING A CIG AROUND 25K
FT. S WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 32 KTS 18Z-22Z.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

THU EVE: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS DESCENDING TO 20K FT. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN NEAR 06Z. DAYTIME GUSTINESS ENDS AND
WHILE THERE COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 23 KTS...EXPECT
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS. LLWS COULD BE A PROBLEM BUT IT HAS
NOT BEEN INCLUDED YET DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT. THE 18Z/00Z NAM
HAVE IT. IF WE SEE IT IN THE 06Z CYCLE...WE WILL INCLUDE IT WITH
THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HALBLAUB