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000
FXUS63 KGID 090600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1200 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

TEMPERATURES OVER THE DEEPEST SNOWPACK ARE DROPPING A BIT FASTER
THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...THEREFORE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS
BEEN EXTENDED IN AREA TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

BEEN A COLD AND SNOWY END TO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE
END OF THE SNOW IS IN SIGHT.  WHILE ONE PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG WITH FAVORABLE JET POSITIONING AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT BROUGHT QUITE A RANGE IN SNOWFALL LAST EVENING
THROUGH THIS MORNING...ANOTHER HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY EAST OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THIS
DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO WRN KS/SWRN NEB...WITH SNOW INCREASING
ITS COVERAGE OVER THE WRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. NOT EXPECTING THIS
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE SNOW TO BRING NOTABLE ACCUMULATIONS
LIKE LAST NIGHT...BUT AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OR SO CERTAINLY NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME LOCATIONS. HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE
WINTER WEATHER ADV RIDE AS IS UNTIL ITS EXP AT 6 PM. THANKFULLY
THE WIND HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE TO BLOW AROUND THIS VERY DRY FLUFFY
SNOW...A WEAK PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA. WINDS ARE SWITCHING TO
THE NW...BUT SPEEDS REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST CAME THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH
POPS AND TEMPS. WITH THIS LATEST BATCH OF SNOW TAKING ITS SWEET
TIME MOVING EAST...INSERTED SOME HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE ERN CWA
FOR THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME. ONCE THIS PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
AND ITS ACCOMPANYING PRECIP PASS TO THE EAST...THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS DRY.

EXPECTING SKY COVER TO DIMINISH WITH TIME TONIGHT...AND WITH THE
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED AND NEW SNOW...DID DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS.
CURRENT FORECAST IS CALLING FOR SINGLE DIGITS ON EITHER SIDE OF
ZERO...WITH THE COLDER LOWS IN THE ODX/LXN AREA AND SINGLE DIGITS
ABV ZERO IN THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR SRN 3 KS COUNTIES. BIGGEST
CONCERN IS THAT TEMPS MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH...ESP FOR LOCATIONS
WHICH SAW THE MOST SNOW IN THIS EVENT. EXPECTING THE NW WINDS
OVERNIGHT TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...BUT THE FORECAST COMBO
OF TEMPS/WINDS DID RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES COLDER THAN -10
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH COLDER THAN -15 FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
ACROSS FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA /ROUGHLY LXN TO ST PAUL TO
OSCEOLA/...FORECAST CALLS FOR WIND CHILL VALUES OF NEAR/BELOW
-20...SO AM GOING WITH A WC ADV FOR THOSE COUNTIES. EVENING CREW
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW TEMPS BEHAVE THIS
EVENING...ESP ONCE THE CLOUDS START TO CLEAR...ITS POSSIBLE AN
EXPANSION OF THIS ADV MAY BE NEEDED.

PRETTY QUIET CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR MONDAY...WITH CONTINUED COLD.
WILL SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN...ESP COMPARED TO TODAY...AND WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. DID LOWER HIGHS
A BIT...MAINLY OVER THE AREAS WHICH HAS THE DEEPER SNOW COVER.
LOOKING AT LOWER TEENS TO NEAR 20 ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN ALL
SUGGEST AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT A 70-100KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK IS NOW EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE
PORTIONS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 00Z-12Z
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THIS JET STREAK
PERHAPS PROMOTING ENOUGH OF A THERMALLY DIRECT CIRCULATION AND
RESULTANT OMEGA OVER THE NORTHERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL PLAINS. IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT THIS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD CLIP OUR EXTREME NORTH/NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT POPS INTO THE FORECAST. THERE ARE ALSO
INDICATIONS...FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...OF A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER IT APPEARS ANY APPRECIABLE OMEGA SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...THUS THE DRY FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND
AS WELL.

IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL LOSE ITS GRIP
ON OUR REGION DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS FOR THE MOST PART. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
WEDNESDAY...WHEN A TEMPORARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR MAY PROMOTE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA...A MUCH QUIETER UPCOMING 24 HOURS IS IN STORE AVIATION-
WISE...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY...AND IN
FACT VERY LIMITED CLOUD COVER. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...SPEEDS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WILL ONLY AVERAGE
AROUND 10KT AS DIRECTION TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. THEN ON MONDAY EVENING...SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL
PICK UP A BIT WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 20KT IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE
PERIOD...MAINLY AFTER 03Z...AS WINDS ALOFT WITHIN THE LOWEST 1500
FT AGL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 40+ KNOTS.
HOWEVER...WITH THIS STILL WELL-BEYOND 18 HOURS AWAY...WILL HOLD
OFF ON A FORMAL MENTION IN THE TAF AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST
TRENDS IN MODEL DATA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH