Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 010516
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1216 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ALOFT: NW FLOW WILL CONT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU TOMORROW...WITH
A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE W AND A TROF OVER THE ERN USA. A
SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING THRU AND DEAMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVER SRN
ALBERTA/SASK/MT. THIS TROF WILL TURN SE INTO THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT
AND BRUSH BY THE FCST AREA IN A DAMPENED FASHION TOMORROW AM. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROF THAT WILL BE OVER SRN SASK/MT.

SURFACE: ANOTHER COLD FRONT WAS SINKING INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES. THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO THE FCST AREA.
RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOWED IT WAS QUASI-STATIONARY FROM BBW-ODX-GRI-
AUH-JYR. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHEN THIS FRONT WILL RESUME ITS PROGRESS TO
THE S...BUT IT COULD BECOME MOBILE FROM TSTM OUTFLOWS ONCE THEY
DEVELOP. EITHER WAY...THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY CONT S AND INTO THE
SRN PLAINS TOMORROW.

THIS AFTERNOON: WE ARE MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS TO DEVELOP
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. LOW-LVL FGEN IS OCCURRING IN THE
PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY. MLCAPE IS CURRENTLY 2000-3000
J/KG ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT...AND BACKED LOW-LVL WINDS HAVE
INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 40-50 KTS. 0-3 KM SRH IS 100-250 J/KG.
SO SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE "IF" TSTMS INITIATE.

AS OF 20Z THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF CU ON VIS SATELLITE. SO NOTHING IS
IMMINENT.

TONIGHT: THE FCST HINGES ON TSTM DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS UNCERTAIN IN
TIME AND LOCATION. CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW DUE TO THE PLETHORA
OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS.
CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM THE 15Z SREF QPF PROBABILITIES ARE THAT
TSTMS WILL INITIATE OVER NE NEB NEAR THE TERMINUS OF THE 35-45 KT
LOW-LVL JET. THESE STORMS SHOULD THEN CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS THAT
TRACKS E OF THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...SOME TSTMS ON ITS WRN FRINGE
COULD AFFECT PARTS OF S-CNTRL NEB. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A FEW TSTMS
COULD ERUPT OVER WRN NEB/SW SD...WITH THEIR DYING REMNANTS MOVING
THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...M/CLOUDY.

WED: CLEARING WITH TEMPS EASING BACK CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL. SHOULD
SEE FEW-SCT STRATOCU FORM WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

WE HAVE NOTED THAT THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE HRW-NMM AND ARW ARE FCSTG
A FEW TSTMS OVER N-CNTRL AND NE NEB LATE. HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL CREATE A CAP AND THERE WILL NOT BE ANY DISCERNABLE
FORCING. SO IT`S DOUBTFUL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. SO THE FCST IS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS RATHER TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING WEAK UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEMS INTO OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE SMALL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...GENERALLY
LESS THAN 50/50...MANY AREAS COULD END UP BEING DRY OR SEEING VERY
LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS IS TYPICAL WITH MORE ISOLATED JULY
CONVECTION THE FEW TO SCATTERED AREAS THAT DO SEE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
END UP GETTING SOME APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS WHILE THEIR NEIGHBORS LOOK
ON WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE PRIMARILY TO MARGINAL SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES. HOWEVER...SEVERAL STRONG STORMS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY IN THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME WHEN A SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING
THROUGH BRINGING WITH IT A SLIGHTLY BETTER COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL
AREAS...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...JCB


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