Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 230930
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
430 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

The short term discussion will be sent out shortly.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

The long term continues to indicate an active pattern with chances
for thunderstorms everyday. Currently, the potential for severe
weather exist for several days this week. However, there is still
some uncertainty due to the fact these events could ultimately
change certain mesoscale features which will in turn result in a
constantly evolving process this week. It will be best to
consistently monitor the forecast daily for changes that will be
inevitable.

Troughing will be noted over the western CONUS through the beginning
of the long term, and southwesterly flow aloft will be noted over
the forecast area during which several low-amplitude shortwaves will
eject out over the Central Plains. The pattern will change Friday as
the trough moves over the Central Plains.

Tuesday: A surface low will be noted over western parts of the
central plains, and the track will really help determine our severe
potential. Nevertheless, a boundary will be draped over the
forecast area Tuesday, and ample CAPE will be in place around 4000
to 5000 J/kg as dewpoints reach the mid to upper 60s. The overall
shear will be strong, and the environment will be conducive to
support supercells. Confidence is high for the chance of large hail
(2+ inches in diameter). There is also a chance for tornadoes to
develop as well. These will primarily be the main threats but one
cannot rule out damaging winds later as these storms progress. There
is still some uncertainty in the placement of the front and the
surface low. Nevertheless, I still think the environment will be
favorable for severe weather across the forecast area beginning
Tuesday afternoon, especially near and long the boundary which
should be draped across the forecast area Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday and Thursday: Both of these days have the potential for
severe weather across the forecast area. Again, ample CAPE will be
in place both days. The overall environmental shear is stronger
Thursday, but both days could potentially support supercells.

Thunderstorms are possible later in the week as well. Confidence for
severe potential dwindles beyond Thursday. Temperatures will be
above normal throughout he long term.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Ceilings are a big dice roll as a line of storms rolls in from the
west overnight. Numerical models have had a rough time trying to
figure out ceilings for the past several days, and tonight is no
exception. Needless to say, there is low confidence in the ceiling
forecast, but moderate confidence in the timing of the squall line
as it moves through. Severe weather is not anticipating as the
general trend is for weakening convection.


&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...Guerrero
AVIATION...Heinlein



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