Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGID 251134
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
534 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

WE START OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANDING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HANG ON TO SOME STRATUS A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT OUR INITIALIZED
SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES AND I HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -165 TO -20
RANGE FOR THURSDAY...WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHS IN THE TEENS
FOR MOST AREAS. WE MAY MAKE IT TO AROUND 20 IN OUR SOUTH. I USED
THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS IS DEPENDING ON WIND
SPEEDS STAYING UP A BIT. GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES SOME AREA IN OUR
NORTHEAST NOT BREAKING INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS...AND THIS MAY
VERY WELL HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEED DROPS AND WE GET A
LITTLE MORE SKY COVER HANGING AROUND.

THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER DIVE.
WIND SPEED COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP WIND
CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
NEARER...MAYBE AS CLOSE AS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND
TO DROP OFF QUITE A BIT AND WITH ANTICIPATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WE COULD WIND UP BEING BELOW ZERO FOR A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE CWA. ORD COULD REALLY TANK TO NEAR
-10. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING COLDER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND. I BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION. WE MAY HOLD NEAR ZERO IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE
WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND SPEED.

NUMERICAL MODELS ALL TEND TO KEEP US DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.

A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND CONGRUENT WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE. THIS SETS UP A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR US WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND IMPULSES OF
ENERGY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US MORE
THAN ONE ROUND OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. FOR NOW...THE CURRENT TRACK
WOULD PLACE MORE SNOW CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AS WE ALL
KNOW...THINGS MAY TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE
3 TO 5 DAYS AWAY. I DID BUMP UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT
CONSIDERABLE QPF FOR US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THIS STILL
LOOKS AT LEAST LIKE A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SITUATION
...BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME TIME BEFORE THIS ARRIVES AND WE SHOULD
GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS WITH TIME.

I WENT CLOSER TO CONSRAW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO MONDAY
...WHICH WAS GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY WHICH BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM INITIALIZED
GRIDS. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING
SNOW ON THE GROUND. I DO NOT SEE AN END TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON...WITH WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
INTO EARLY MARCH UNDER THIS CONSISTENTLY COLD PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THU MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TODAY: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DESCEND FROM 10K FT
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 18Z WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
VFR SPRINKLES...AND POSSIBLY SOME RA/SN SHWRS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. THE CERTAINTY OF PRECIP
REDUCING THE VSBY TO MVFR OR LOWER IS NOT AS HIGH AS EARLIER. SO
WHILE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR SN...CONFIDENCE IS
NO LONGER HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE A LOW VSBY IN THE TAF. WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS AS WE MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM OBS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N AND GUST 35-42 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: STRONG N WINDS CONT BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE BEGINNING
06Z. MVFR CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SCT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.