558
FXUS63 KGID 101737
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1237 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a slight risk of severe storms this afternoon through
  this evening across the area. Damaging wind gusts and large
  hail will be the main threats.

- There is a marginal risk of severe storms Friday afternoon and
  evening in advance of a cold front. Large hail and severe wind
  gusts will be the main threats but an isolated tornado is
  possible.

- Heat index values today will range from around 90 to near and
  slightly above 100 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Today and tonight...

A shortwave trough is moving near/over south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas. Storms are moving southeastward
across portions of the area aided by a low-level jet. The initial
line of storms is across southeastern portions of the area, but
another area of storms is moving into northwestern portions of the
area. Winds will increase out of the south by this afternoon with
another shortwave expected to move over the area. Temperatures today
will heat up into the upper 80s to around 100 degrees. Heat index
values will get up to near or slightly above 100 degrees across much
of the area. Very high CAPE and low-level lapse rates will be
present today. Wind shear will be lacking with values up to around
30 knots. The whole area has been outlooked in a slightly risk of
severe weather per the SPC day 1 outlook. The main timing for severe
weather looks to be mid/late afternoon through the evening hours.
Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the main threats with
these storms. Low temperatures tonight will range from the low 60s
to low/mid 70s.

Friday through Saturday night...

An upper trough will be over the area on Friday which will enhance
upper lift. A cold front will also be moving southward towards the
area. Fairly high moisture and instability will be across the area
on Friday with fairly low wind shear. South central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas are in a marginal risk of severe
storms per the SPC day 2 outlook. Afternoon and evening will be the
main time frame for severe weather concerns. The main threats with
these storms will be large hail and severe wind gusts, although an
isolated tornado is possible. Cooler temperatures are expected
behind the front on Friday with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Low
temperatures Friday night will range from the upper 50s to upper
60s. An upper trough will extend from Canada southward to the
Midwest and central/southern Plains on Saturday. The surface high
will be across the area with high temperatures in the upper 70s to
mid 80s with light and variable winds. Low temperatures Saturday
night will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Sunday through Wednesday...

Temperatures will start to warm up on Sunday with highs in the mid
80s to low 90s. Low temperatures Sunday night will be in the low/mid
60s to upper 60s. The warm up continues on Monday with highs in the
upper 80s to mid 90s. Lows Monday night will be in the low/mid 60s
to the low 70s. An upper trough will be over the northern and
central Plains on Tuesday. A cold front associated with this trough
will move southward towards the area. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will increase beginning on Tuesday as a result of the
approaching trough and cold front. High temperatures on Tuesday will
range from the mid 80s to mid 90s. The cold front will push through
the area Tuesday night with lows in the mid/upper 50s to the
mid/upper 60s. A surface high will be across the area on Wednesday
with high temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s. Rain and storm
chances (around 15% to near 40%) will continue on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Somewhat active period for both KGRI and KEAR the next 18-24
hours as a shortwave trough moves into and across the area
through Friday.

In the very near term...next few hours...KEAR/KGRI are in
between early morning and late day weather systems, so VFR
conditions are forecast. However, winds will remain gusty
out of the south/southeast with gusts up to 25kts.

Tonight, convective will fire to the west and north and
drift into the area during the mid/late evening hours.
Included a Prob30 for the evening six hour period, but
there will likely be at least 1-2 hours of pretty sustained
precipitation, though am not quite confident to add that
to prevailing group at a specific time. Whatever precipitation
occurs will likely linger in the post-midnight hours.

The stronger south winds this afternoon will start to make
a gradual turn with time.

The area some signs of low-level wind shear but it may be
tied to convective elements so did not include it either.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz