Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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128
FXUS63 KGID 090522
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1122 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH HANGS ON OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL BE LIGHTER. THERE WILL BE A RATHER
NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S EAST TO NEAR 40 SOUTHWEST. THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ALOFT: NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WITH LONGWAVE TROFS OVER THE E PAC AND
ERN N AMERICA...WITH A RIDGE OVER WRN N AMERICA. IT WILL REACH IS
PEAK AMPLITUDE TONIGHT-TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...GRADUAL
DEAMPLIFICATION. CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NW PAC THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL FORCE THE E PAC TROF
ONSHORE SAT AND IT`S FCST TO ARRIVE HERE SUN. THE PAST 2 EC/GFS/GEM
RUNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ONLY MINOR SPREAD AND AGREE
WITH THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 12Z/7 AND 00Z/8 UKMET ARE ON THE
FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

SURFACE: THE STATIONARY FRONT (WRN END OF THE COLD ERN USA AIR MASS)
WILL BE BANKED UP AGAINST THE ROCKIES TUE EVE. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
E INTO CNTRL NEB/KS TUE NIGHT AS A PAIR OF CLIPPERS DIVES SSE ALONG
IT. THE FIRST WILL RACE BY WED FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT THU NIGHT. WE
THEN SHOULD SEE AN ARCTIC AIR MASS BRIEFLY INFILTRATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT AS THE FRONT SURGES BACK S. ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN SAT. SUN
SOME TYPE OF WEAK LOW WILL FORM NEARBY...BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE
TOO STABLE FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

A FEW DAILY DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT: COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES ALONG AND N OF I-80. MOISTURE
IS DECENT...BUT LIFT IS NOT AS FORCING IS NIL.

WED: CLEARING FROM THE W AS THE FRONT MOVES IN.

THU: CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN.

FRI: WE MAY NEED SOME FLURRIES IN THE FCST EVENTUALLY.

FRI NIGHT: CAA.

SAT: SHORTWAVE RIDGE. WE MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. THE LAST 2 RUNS OF
EC MOS OFFER HIGHS OF 21F AND 20F AT GRI.

SUN: DOESN`T LOOK PROMISING FOR MUCH PRECIP. FORCING IS POTENT BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT.

TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL...EXCEPT SAT WHICH IT LOOKING COLDER OR POSSIBLY
EVEN MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL.

FOR WARM WX FANS...NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ARE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. WE
ARE PAST THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COLDEST PART OF WINTER (BASED ON THE
LONG-TERM AVERAGE). HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN WE WON`T SEE
PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE TERMINAL AREAS LATE
TONIGHT. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE SOME LOWER
CLOUDS...BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...JCB



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