Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 151722
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1222 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

WE HAD A COOL FRONT SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...WHICH HAS TURNED OUR WINDS TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND
WILL MAKE FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
60S.

TODAY...EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA IN A FAVORABLE WARM AIR
ADVECTION ZONE AND A BAND OF ADVANCING LOW CLOUDS SLIPPING INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT LITTLE ELSE AND
THEREFORE...FELT THAT ISOLATED SPRINKLES WERE A BETTER FORECAST
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING THAN ACTUAL POPS FOR RAIN OR THUNDER. THERE
IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS ONE CAN SEE BY MUCAPE VALUES OF A
LITTLE OVER 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...WE HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO TAP INTO
THIS INSTABILITY LAYER ALL NIGHT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND THE
BETTER FORCING HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
MAKING THUNDERSTORMS UNLIKELY. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE PULLED
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING AND WILL JUST
GO WITH SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND THOSE
THAT SEE RAIN WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ENOUGH TO MEASURE. MOST FORECAST
MODELS HAVE THE SPRINKLES OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MID
MORNING...BUT THEY COULD LINGER THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. THE LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...LIKELY TRACKING SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY 1 PM. MOST OF THE WARMING TODAY WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AFTER THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT WHEN WE SHOULD SEE
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

TONIGHT...THERE IS REALLY NOT GOING TO BE MUCH GOING ON TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. A SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS PRIOR TO DAWN ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

TAKING A BROAD OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE NOTED FROM 24 HOURS AGO. IF WE HAD TO MAKE ONE FORECAST MESSAGE
CLEAR HERE IT WOULD BE: THERE ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW MORE
SUMMER-LIKE DAYS IN STORE. STARTING WITH THE BIG PRECIP
PICTURE...THIS MEANS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK-WEEK SHOULD
SEE PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST REFLECTS
VARIOUS...FAIRLY LOW-CONFIDENCE 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY TIME FRAME. FOLLOWING
ANOTHER PERIOD VOID OF NO PRECIP MENTION (AT LEAST FOR NOW) FROM
THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHAT SHOULD BE THE OVERALL-BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ENTERS THE PICTURE
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE PARENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM/S DEPARTURE. THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE ENTIRE
FORECAST ARE CENTERED ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ARE ONLY IN THE 40-50
PERCENT RANGE THUS FAR GIVEN THE USUAL UNCERTAINTIES THAT FAR OUT.
HOWEVER...BARRING NOTABLE FUTURE CHANGES IN HOW THIS EARLY-
WEEKEND SYSTEM EVOLVES/DEPARTS...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH FOR
THIS FAR OUT IN TIME THAT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SHOULD AGAIN
BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST FOR NOW HAVE LINGERED SOME SLIGHT
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST 1/4 OF THE CWA SAT
NIGHT ALTHOUGH THIS IS PROBABLY ON SHAKY GROUND.

AS FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES THIS WEEK...CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IS THE BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE IT. AT LEAST FOR
NOW...THERE ARE NO SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES/NOT EVEN FOR 5
PERCENT THRESHOLDS/ASSIGNED TO THE CWA BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER IN THE DAY 2-3 TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THAT BEING SAID...IF
ANY CONVECTION DOES MANAGE TO FLARE UP DURING THAT MID-WEEK
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURS TIME FRAME...ITS HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY A HAIL THREAT
BASED ON MODEL DEPICTIONS OF SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR. THE ISSUE
RIGHT NOW IS...THERE IS JUST SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER OR NOT
CONVECTION ACTUALLY DEVELOPS IN THE FIRST PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD
THAT BOTH POPS AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES NEED TO BE PLAYED
CONSERVATIVELY. PUT ANOTHER WAY...WE KIND OF NEED TO TAKE TUES
NIGHT-THURS ONE DAY AT A TIME AS IT GETS CLOSER TO SEE IF SOME
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAY IN FACT MATERIALIZE. LOOKING BEYOND
MID-WEEK UNCERTAINTY INTO THE SOMEWHAT MORE CONFIDENT PRIMARY
PRECIP CHANCE CENTERED ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS SYSTEM CLEARLY HAS
BETTER-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT...BUT THERE
ARE STILL PLENTY OF QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH INSTABILITY MAY BE
THERE TO WORK WITH (ESPECIALLY IF THE MAIN EVENT OCCURS
OVERNIGHT)...SO AGAIN ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WE ARE STILL IN WAIT AND SEE MODE REGARDING ANY OFFICIAL
ADVERTISING OF A LEGITIMATE THREAT.

SWITCHING GEARS TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
THE WED-SAT TIME FRAME IS LIKELY GOING TO FEEL BE A LOT MORE
REMINISCENT OF LATE SUMMER/EARLY-FALL THAN THE NOTABLY-COOL
STRETCH OBSERVED LATE. IN FACT...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THIS LATEST
FORECAST PACKAGE REFLECTS GENERALLY A 1-2 DEGREE INCREASE IN BOTH
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES DURING NEARLY EVERY PERIOD...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MORE UPWARD NUDGES WITH TIME.
FOCUSING ON DAILY HIGHS...TUESDAY IS CURRENTLY SLATED TO BE THE
COOLEST OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD MAINLY DUE TO CONCERNS OF POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...AND THUS AM ONLY AIMING FOR UPPER 60S-LOW
70S RANGE WITHIN MOST OF THE CWA. THEN FROM WED-SUN...A DECENT
UPWARD JUMP TO A NEAR AND EVEN AT-TIMES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
REGIME SHOULD COMMENCE...AND HAVE HIGHS ON MOST OF THESE DAYS
AIMED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE UPPER 70S AND MID 80S (COOLEST NORTH-
NORTHEAST AND WARMEST SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS USUAL). AT LEAST FOR
NOW...FRIDAY IS THE LEADING CANDIDATE FOR THE WARMEST/MOST-SUMMERY
DAY OF THE WEEK...AND HAVE AT LEAST MID-80S ADVERTISED ALL AREAS
AND EVEN SOME UPPER 80S SOUTHWEST.

BEFORE GOING INTO A BIT MORE DAILY DETAIL...ITS WORTH MENTIONING
THAT AT LEAST A FEW NIGHTS/MORNINGS THIS WEEK COULD FOSTER SOME
DEGREE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE. BASED ON THE LATEST SREF VISIBILITY PROBABILITIES...BOTH
TUES/WED NIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY THE BEST CANDIDATES FOR MAYBE
REALIZING SOME FOG ISSUES ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS COULD BE A BIG
FACTOR IN MODULATING ITS DEGREE OF IMPACT. GIVEN THE OFTEN-
FICKLE/TOUGH TO PREDICT NATURE OF FOG FORECASTING VERY FAR IN
ADVANCE...WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ANY FORMAL FORECAST MENTION
DURING THESE PERIODS WHILE ACKNOWLEDGING THAT FUTURE FORECASTS MAY
HAVE TO INTRODUCE FOG MENTION IF IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY WITHIN 12-24
HOURS OUT.

BRIEFLY TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT METEOROLOGICAL FEATURES/EXPECTATIONS
IN 24-36 HOURS BLOCKS:

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...FAIRLY UNCHANGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DOMINATES THE MID-UPPER LEVEL SITUATION OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...FLOWING BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE SOUTHEAST CANADA TROUGH AND
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS RIDGE. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN A DRY DAY
ALTHOUGH A FEW MODELS SPIT OUT SOME VERY PATCHY QPF/LIKELY MODEL-
GENERATED LIGHT DRIZZLE/UNDER WHAT COULD BE A RATHER SOLID BLOCK
OF LOWER STRATUS BASED AROUND 850 MILLIBARS GRADUALLY
OVERSPREADING THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST. AT ANY
RATE...HAVE KEPT THE DAY VOID OF PRECIP MENTION WHILE MAINTAINING
SOME LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE
PASSING DISTURBANCE. AS OUTLINED ABOVE...HIGH TEMPS COULD BE
HEAVILY MODULATED BY WHETHER OR NOT THIS POTENTIALLY EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS...AND IF IT DOES EVEN UPPER 60S MAY BE
OPTIMISTIC. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO TREND MORE TOWARD CLOUDY
THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AS WELL. DAYTIME BREEZES GENERALLY 10-15 MPH
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS A BIT AS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD A BIT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
LOW-CONFIDENCE POPS CONTINUE. DURING THE DAY...ONLY HAVE SOME
SLIGHT 20 PERCENT SHOWER/STORM MENTION MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST 1/4
OF THE CWA...WHILE AT NIGHT 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES EXPAND TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE AREA BUT ESPECIALLY SOUTH. SHOULD THE LOW LEVEL
JET HELP FIRE UP STORMS DURING THIS TIME...AS OUTLINED ABOVE SOME
SEVERE THREAT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THE HEART OF THE PARENT RIDGE AXIS
TRANSLATES EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...TRANSITIONING FLOW
FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE ZONAL AND PROVIDING HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED MAINLY ON A CONTINUATION
OF POSSIBLE WED NIGHT CONVECTION...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA DURING
THE DAY WHILE LEAVING THURS NIGHT DRY.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF SPATIAL ORIENTATION
AND TIMING REMAIN SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...THE MAIN STORY HERE IS
THAT SOME SORT OF LARGER SCALE MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SLIDE
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK-MODEST SURFACE COLD
FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...KEPT THE DAY DRY...WARM AND SOMEWHAT
BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH...BEFORE THE POTENTIALLY DECENT SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY DAYTIME...AS ALREADY OUTLINED IN THE
OPENING LONG TERM PARAGRAPH...BARRING CONSIDERABLE TIMING CHANGES
FEEL THAT THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME ESPECIALLY BEYOND SATURDAY
DAYTIME CARRIES A REASONABLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY.
HOWEVER...SATURDAY DAYTIME COULD SEE A DECENT COVERAGE OF
LINGERING CONVECTION MAINLY IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES. ITS WORTH
NOTING THAT EVEN THOUGH BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...BY THIS TIME THEY DIFFER CONSIDERABLY
FROM EACH OTHER IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL AIR PATTERN...SO AS USUAL
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY YET TO HAMMER OUT HERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT AS THE SURFACE HIGH IS SETTLING INTO THE
AREA. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING TO THE EAST IN THE MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING AS THE HIGH DEPARTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...JCB


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