Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGID 030913
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
313 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE TWO
SHORT WAVES WILL MERGE INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ADVANCE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
OVERTAKE THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
AXIS WILL CLEAR OUR AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE
PERHAPS PROMOTING SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR EXTREME
SOUTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A SOLUTION
SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND SREF-
MEAN. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-30% POPS ACROSS OUR
EXTREME SOUTH 12-18Z WEDNESDAY. FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM
OUR SOUTH SUGGEST THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION RATES AND RESULTANT ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE VERY
LIGHT...LIKELY NO MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.

GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PRESENT DRY
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS DURING THE WEEKEND WHICH IS WHEN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH SUGGEST A WEAK UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE WILL CLEAR THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE
IS VERY LOW THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT FROM THIS FEATURE
AND THUS...WENT AHEAD WITH THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

A COLD BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY...THUS PROMOTING HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS A SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE A WARMING
TREND...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS IN THE
20S AND 30S LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS 00Z TAF ISSUANCE...THE BIGGEST CHANGE IS
THAT CONFIDENCE HAS WANED A BIT REGARDING BOTH THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE FIRST 6-9 HOURS...ALONG
WITH CEILING DROPPING AS LOW AS IFR AND VISIBILITY AS LOW AS MVFR.
ALTHOUGH AM NOT COMPLETELY RULING OUT ANY OF THESE 3 THINGS FROM
HAPPENING...THE CONFIDENCE IS JUST NO LONGER HIGH ENOUGH TO
ADVERTISE A PREVAILING MENTION OF -FZDZ...IFR CEILING AND MVFR
VISIBILITY. HOWEVER...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
PREVAILING MVFR CEILING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...BEFORE TENTATIVELY AIMING FOR A RETURN TO VFR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE AREA GETS DEEPER BEHIND AN INVADING COLD FRONT.
SPEAKING OF THIS COLD FRONT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN WIND
TRENDS...AS INITIALLY BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING
GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND BRIEFLY BECOMES MORE WESTERLY BEFORE A STOUT
COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE SUSTAINED NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 25KT/GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME
PASSING SNOW FLURRIES DURING THE DAY...BUT APPEAR INCONSEQUENTIAL
ENOUGH TO OMIT FROM THE TAFS. LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF
VALID PERIOD...THE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT HOURS COULD FEATURE A BRIEF
ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
NEXT ISSUANCE.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.