Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 221020
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
420 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER ON THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND EVEN A LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE FOG AS
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE HELD PRETTY STEADY ALONG HWY 81 AND OVER OUR
OTHER EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THIS HAS LARGELY KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN OUR EAST UP OVERNIGHT TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK. THE CLOUDS CLEARED FOR AT LEAST A TIME ACROSS
WESTERN COUNTIES PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 281 ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL AND AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AND
CONCERN FOR A PROBLEM IS WHERE WE CLEARED...HAD THE TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW FREEZING...AND THEN HAD CLOUDS AND A LIGHT MIST MOVE
BACK IN. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT A LIGHT ICY FILM MAY FORM AS A
RESULT OF THE FREEZING FOG. THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR THIS
EXISTS FROM HASTINGS AND CLAY CENTER...TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SMITH CENTER AND PHILLIPSBURG AREA. SO FAR THE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ICING AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
HELD STEADY TO SLOWLY RISEN AS THE THICKER CLOUDS AND LIGHT MIST
MOVED BACK IN. HOWEVER...ANY FOG/MIST RELATED ICING IS STILL OUR
PRIMARY CONCERN TO WATCH OUT FOR THIS MORNING. SEVERAL PHONE CALLS
TO AREA COUNTIES HAVE CONFIRMED THAT AS OF 4 AM ANY DENSE FOG WAS
RATHER LOCALIZED AND THUS HAVE NOT ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE FOG MAY THICKEN AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE NEAR SUNRISE...RESULTING THE
POTENTIAL NEED OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

TODAY...OVERALL MOST FORECAST MODELS EVENTUALLY DISPERSE THE FOG
AND PUSH THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE QUICKER WE CLEAR OUT THE WARMER WE
WILL GET TODAY. WESTERN AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT SOONER...POSSIBLY NOT
LONG AFTER SUNRISE...WHILE EASTERN AREAS MAY BE SOCKED IN THE
FOG/LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THEREFORE...THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY HITTING THE LOWER 60S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME.
EVEN EASTERN ZONES SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON
TO HELP LIFT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS
OVERHEAD.

TONIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS TRY TO PUSH BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 281. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

PATTERN: THE BITTER COLD HAS BACKED OFF BUT ANOTHER PERIODS OF
AMPLIFICATION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE MORE SURGES OF SERIOUS
COLD THIS WEEK. IT IS LOOKING MILDER AS WE HEAD INTO DEC...BUT STILL
SEE NO DECENT PRECIP EVENTS IN THE OFFING IN THIS PREDOMINANT NW
FLOW/ZONAL FLOW.

ALOFT: REAMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROFS
OVER THE CNTRL USA SUN WILL CARVE OUT A NEW LONGWAVE TROF. THE NRN
ROCKIES TROF WILL MOVE THRU HERE SUN EVE. NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN ITS
WAKE THRU THXGVG DAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL RACE THRU HERE
TUE NIGHT. THIS TROF WILL DELIVER ANOTHER BLAST OF BITTER COLD.
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE E PAC AMONG THE LAST 2
RUNS OF GLOBAL MODELS BEGINNING AND THIS HAS FCST IMPLICATIONS HERE
PERTAINING TO HOW LONG ARCTIC AIR REMAINS. IF A CLOSED LOW REMAINS
OFF THE COAST...THEN THE WRN USA RIDGE WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AND THE
COLD WILL HANG ON LONGER THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IF IT OPENS UP
AND TRIES TO MOVE ONSHORE...THEN THE RIDGE WILL BE SHOVED E THU-FRI.
A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL THEN ARRIVE HERE SAT. THE 00Z GFS IRONICALLY
IS THE COLDER SCENARIO...BUT THE 18Z RUN IS IN THE EC CAMP.

SURFACE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THRU AT DAYBREAK SUN AND
DEEP LOW PRES WILL FORM ON THE FRONT AND HEAD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WRN USA HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN MON. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL DIVE
SE TUE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WED WITH A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRES SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION THXGVG DAY. THIS HIGH WILL CONT INTO
THE SE USA FRI-SAT WITH A PAIR OF WEAK LOWS TRACKING E THRU SRN
CANADA. ONE OF THESE COULD SEND A COOL FRONT THRU HERE SAT.

FCST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THRU TUE AND HIGH WITH A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
MID-WEEK...BUT THE TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS IS
LOW CONFIDENCE.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

SUN: AM COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION /CAA/. BECOMING WINDY.

VARIABLE CLOUDS AND WHILE THE FCST IS ESSENTIALLY DRY...BELIEVE WE
MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF A BRIEF SHWR OR A FEW SPRINKLES.
THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE NAM AS WELL AS THE SIGNALS ALOFT SUGGEST A
NARROW LINE COULD DEVELOP.

NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40-45 MPH ALONG AND W OF HWY 281. NOT
BUYING THE NAM WINDS. ITS MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SUPPRESSED TO
INACCURATE LEFTOVER SNOW COVER.

SUN NIGHT: A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IT WILL PROBABLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHWRS/FLURRIES PRIMARILY N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES. EXPECT ANOTHER BURST OF WIND IN RENEWED CAA. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A GUST OF 50 MPH SOMEWHERE N OF I-80.

MON: ANY LEFTOVER FLURRIES DEPART WITH ANOTHER BLUSTERY/CHILLY DAY
THOUGH NOT OF THE BITTER COLD FLAVOR WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. NW WINDS
WILL GUST 40-45 MPH.

TUE: INCREASING CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN. WE MAY NOT BE
CLOUDY ENOUGH.

TUE NIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES BUT
IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET.

WED: CONSIDERABLY UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS. THE 00Z/GFS LOOKS WAY TOO
WARM WITH ITS FLATTER LESS-AMPLIFIED LOOK ALOFT.

THXGVG DAY: WE ARE PROBABLY NOT COLD ENOUGH. THERE IS ROOM TO THE
DOWNSIDE. WATCH FOR FUTURE FCSTS TO TURN COLDER. THE CONSENSUS OF
THE 00Z GFS/EC/GEM OFFER HIGHS 20-27F ALONG AND N OF HWY 6.

FRI: DRY. NOT AS COLD.

THEREAFTER WE HAVE BEEN SEEING PERSISTENT SIGNS IN THE MODELS THAT A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPS IS COMING IN EARLY DEC. THE MADDEN JULIAN
OSCILLATION /MJO/ IS ENTERING PHASE 3 AND FCST TO MOVE INTO PHASE 4.
THIS IS NOT THE ONLY INPUT INTO THE PATTERN...SO NO GUARANTEES ON
THIS...BUT PHASES 3-4 ARE CORRELATED WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND YESTERDAY`S CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK HAS IT.

THE MAJOR PROBLEM IS THE DRYNESS. NW FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW DO NOT
SUPPORT ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP HERE. SO EXPECT WE WILL TRANSITION
FROM COLD AND DRY TO MILD AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE AVIATION FORECAST IS LOADED WITH CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM
DUE TO A LOW STRATUS BANK THAT JUST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT HAS BEEN
MEANDERING AROUND BETWEEN KGRI AND KEAR. KGRI IS SOCKED IN UNDER THE
LOW CLOUDS WHILE KEAR IS JUST WEST OF THE CLOUD SHIELD. THESE LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN
SLIDE FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AFTER DAY BREAK. IN
ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS...KGRI COULD ALSO SEE VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS. THE WIND WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AND WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY


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