Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 251739
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1239 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

A very nice comfortable day in progress. Updated high temps using
bias corrected GFS LAMP. This lowered highs svrl degs over parts
of N-cntrl KS where rain fell and skies were cloudy most of the
morning.

Updated sky/pops thru tonight to decrease cloud cover and remove
all mention of precip from the fcst. The low-lvl jet and moist
tongue will remain out to the W. Updated HWO to remove mention of
thunder as well.


UPDATE Issued at 820 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Svrl minor updates have already been published. The most obvious
was to significantly increase cloud cover and POPs. Also decreased
fcst climb in temps where rain is occurring over N-cntrl KS. Also
lowered the chance of thunder as there have only been a couple
cloud-to-ground strikes in the last hr.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

The pattern aloft featured fairly progressive zonal flow across
our region. Similar to 24 hours ago, convection initiated to our
west and south with storms on the periphery of our southern
counties early this morning and this activity should wane near or
shortly after daybreak.

The daytime hours are looking dry for the most part. Surface high
pressure across central and eastern Nebraska will shift east of
the Missouri river and winds will transition southerly by evening.
Have kept temperatures fairly conservative and seasonal for highs
today, averaging in the upper 80s. Convective models offer varying
solutions on pcpn potential tonight, with some suggesting better
chances along our eastern zones in the warm air advection, while
others suggest high plains convection may roll in towards our
western areas after dark, and yet other models suggest conditions
will remain dry. In the end have opted to maintain just slight
chances for storms thru the overnight hours.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Expect there to be northwest flow across the area through the
period. There are several waves that move through the northwest
flow and each bring a chance for some thunderstorms. Models have
some different timing with the waves and they then produce
different timing on precipitation. Temperatures should be a few
degrees either side of normal for this time of year.

The first wave that moves through the area will be Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Afternoon and evening will be the best chances for
precipitation and further north will have a better chance as well.
Wednesday morning there will be some lingering thunderstorms, but
the next wave moves in Wednesday night.

For Thursday through Saturday there are numerous waves that move
through the area and bring chances for thunderstorms. Timing the
waves that far out is a bit of a challenge. It will not be raining
all of the time, but there are some chances for thunderstorms.
Saturday night into Sunday the upper level ridge drifts a bit to
the east and have a dry forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Significant Wx: None

Fcst Confidence: High all elements all time periods.

This Afternoon: VFR SKC. SE winds 8-15 kts.

Tonight: VFR. Should see some patches of 25K ft cirrostratus (CS)
invade from the W. There is an outside chance for a few altocu
around 13K ft. SE-SSE winds under 10 kts.

Tue thru 18Z: VFR with patches of 25K ft CS. S-SSE winds 8-12
kts.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelley
SHORT TERM...Fay
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Kelley



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