Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KGID 270910

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
410 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Issued at 410 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Updated forecast to include areas of 3/4 mile fog on the edge of
the stratus (generally from Kearney westward). Visibility could be
locally dense at times, although it probably won`t be long
lasting at any one location.

Also included drizzle for a few hours this morning southeast of a
line from Smith Center to Aurora.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Low stratus and patchy fog will gradually clear out this morning as
a shortwave currently centered over eastern KS moves out and mid-
level ridging briefly builds into the area. Mostly sunny to
partly cloudy skies should allow temperatures to reach near 60
degrees today.

The dry conditions of Monday will be relatively short-lived
though, as far western parts of the CWA could see light rain by
Tuesday morning associated with warm air advection ahead of a
potent low spinning over the Four Corners region. There is once
again a possibility that some locations see fog develop prior to
dawn on Tuesday. Stronger easterly winds may inhibit fog
development a bit, but since rain will hold off until later
Tuesday, I still opted to include patchy fog for a few hours prior
to 7am Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Overall the extended periods are shaping up to be more wet than dry.
Beginning on Tuesday, an upper low pressure system will be oriented
in the south central Rockies. Ahead of this system, isentropic lift
will increase across the Central Plains with rain gradually
spreading east from the high plains across our region. Models are
pretty consistent with a widespread rain event unfolding by Tuesday
afternoon/night and continuing through Wednesday night or early
Thursday as the upper low pressure crosses the plains states.
Precipitable water values average three quarters of an inch through
the middle of the week which are roughly two to three standard
deviations above normal for this time oF year and the potential
exists for some areas to see decent spring rainfall amounts. A
little cold air works south on the back side of the system Thursday
but general model consensus is that this will be a liquid event.

Late Thursday into Friday will see a lull in precipitation in
between systems, then in a progressive pattern, another upper low
presure system is progged to emerge from the Rockies and cross the
plains over the weekend bringing additional chances for rain.
Extended models are trending farther south with the track of this
next system with the forecast drying out on Sunday as the system
reaches the southern plains.

Temperatures will remain on the cool side on days with widespread
cloud cover and precipitation, with readings rather seasonal


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Ceilings and visibilities continue to fall tonight. Expecting
ceilings to fall into the IFR range, but don`t currently think
that visibilities will fall much farther than they already have. I
decided to keep the lowest visibility at 3SM overnight for both
locations. HRRR and SREF both keep the lowest visibilities just
west of the TAF sites, so if anything, KEAR will have a better
chance for visibility in the 1-2 mile range.

Ceilings will gradually improve tomorrow morning as cloud cover
slowly breaks up. Winds remain light and variable through the
majority of the period as well.




SHORT TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.