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000
FXUS63 KGID 141622
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1122 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1121 CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

THE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE LAST
12 HRS. IT LIES ROUGHLY FROM NEAR IMPERIAL-PHILLIPSBURG KS-KANSAS
CITY. EXPECT FRONT TO LIFT N. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACHING COOL
FRONT IS OVER THE PANHANDLE BACK TO NEAR DENVER.

IMPORTANT MESOSCALE PARAMETERS:

MLCAPE 2000-3500 J/KG.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR 25 KTS.
LCL HGTS 6-8K FT.
2-7 KM SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION: PARALLEL TO THE COOL FRONT.

0-3 KM SRH WILL BE E OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE E OF THE
FCST AREA BY THE TIME TSTMS ERUPT. THE SUPERCELL COMPOSITE
PARAMETER WILL ALSO BE GREATEST E OF THE WARM FRONT AS WELL.

BOTTOM LINE...MODERATE SHEAR...DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...AND SHEAR
ORIENTATION PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN OUTFLOW DOMINANT
MULTICELL TSTMS THAT WILL TEND TO ORGANIZE INTO LINES. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS UP TO 70 MPH /POSSIBLY
HIGHER/. INSTABILITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...BUT LIMITED SHEAR WILL
LIMIT THE LARGEST HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS.

IF FOR SOME REASON THE COOLER/DENSE AIR PREVAILS...AND THE WARM
FRONT REMAINS OVER PART OF THE FCST AREA...SAY FROM ORD-GRAND
ISLAND-HEBRON...THEN LCL HGTS WILL BE LOWER AND SHEAR WILL BE
HIGHER AND WE`LL NEED TO WATCH FOR SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL
OVER THE ERN FRINGE OF OUR FCST AREA. SINCE SUNSHINE IS OCCURRING
N OF THE FRONT...THIS IS A GOOD SIGN THAT THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT N
AND CLEAR THE FCST AREA.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

OFF TO A BIT OF SLOW START DUE TO MONITORING RADAR THRU 830 AM.
THERE WERE A COUPLE OF NEAR-SVR STORMS THAT TRACKED FROM NEAR
HANSEN E ALONG THE HAMILTON-CLAY COUNTY LINE. WE SAW 50 DBZ UP TO
32K FT.

THE MRNG SHWRS/TSTMS WERE WARM FRONT GENERATED. THE HEAT WILL NOW
FOLLOW.

FCST HOURLY TEMPS WERE RUNNING WAY TOO WARM IN THE RAIN-COOLED
AREAS. SO SOME MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE. CLEARING IS
HEADING E PER VIS SAT SO TEMPS SHOULD ROCKET UP. ALSO ADJUSTED
POPS AS SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE NEARLY CLEARED THE FCST AREA. POPS WERE
ALSO BLENDED WITH MULTIPLE HI-RES MODELS FROM 23Z-06Z TO COVER
TSTMS EXPECTED TO ERUPT.

FURTHER EVALUATION OF THE SITUATION WILL BE ON-GOING AND WE`LL
PROBABLY HAVE MORE IN AN AFD LATER THIS MRNG. 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE
SURPRISINGLY MOIST UP TO 850 MB. HOWEVER...WITH HIGHS OF 94-104F
AT 5 PM...SFC TEMP/DWPT SPREADS WILL STILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL
DRYING BELOW CLOUD BASES THAT DEVELOP.

BASED ON BEST-VERIFYING HIGH TEMP GUIDANCE WE WILL PROBABLY BE
RAISING HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGS IN THE TRI-CITIES AREA PENDING
FURTHER EVALUATION BEFORE NOON.

SLGT RISK CONTINUES FOR LATE THIS AFTN-EVNG.

PLEASE FOLLOW LATEST UPDATES FROM THE SPC VIA THEIR OUTLOOKS AND
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS...AND ALL FUTURE STATEMENTS/WATCHES/WARNINGS
FROM THIS OFFICE.

SKYWARN: BE ALERT FOR ACTIVATION IN THE 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CENTERS AROUND THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERE.

THE FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS THEY TRACK
EAST. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THESE STORMS AND
TRACKS THEM ALL THE WAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA GENERALLY ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 80/HWY 6 CORRIDOR. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT ALL
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE EITHER DECAYED OR BE EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE HIGH CIRRUS LEFT OVER FROM THE
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL THIN AND WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE TODAY HELPING TEMPERATURES SKY ROCKET. AN INCREASING
SOUTH WIND IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY...WHICH WILL INCLUDE ALL OF
OUR FORECAST AREA EXCEPT MAYBE OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES WILL ALSO
HELP TO GIVE TEMPERATURES A BOOST. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 90 IN OUR FAR NORTH AROUND ORD TO OVER 100 ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

THERE IS GOOD FORECAST MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUALLY OVERCOME AN ELEVATED CAP
AND INITIATE ALONG A SFC FRONT THAT WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. MLCAPE
VALUES ALONG THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 2000 TO 4000 J/KG MAKING
FOR A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. 0-6KM WIND SHEAR WILL BE MORE
MARGINAL AT 25 TO 35 KTS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
INSTABILITY...AT LEAST MARGINAL SHEAR...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR SEVERAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EXPECT INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE AFTER 4 PM WITH THE
GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE 5 PM TO 10 PM TIME FRAME.
REDEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR HIGHWAY 30
FROM MERRICK COUNTY DOWN INTO GRAND ISLAND AND KEARNEY...AND THEN
SOUTHWEST INTO GOSPER AND FURNAS COUNTY. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE PRETTY FAST AS YOU HEAD SOUTHEAST OF
THIS CORRIDOR INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND
WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH. WIND IS A BIG CONCERN DUE TO THE INVERTED V
FORECAST SOUNDING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH THE OBVIOUSLY
HIGH CAPE. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO GENERALLY
WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HIGHER LCL HEIGHTS. THE LIMITED TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA PRIMARY FOR THE KEARNEY
AND GRAND ISLAND AREAS AND POINTS NORTHEAST WHERE LCL HEIGHTS WILL
BE THE LOWEST AND THERE MIGHT BE SOME BACKING OF THE SFC WIND BY
EARLY EVENING...BUT AGAIN THIS IS ONLY A LIMITED THREAT WITH THE
PRIMARY THREATS TODAY BEING BIG HAIL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WINDS.

THE CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TONIGHT AND AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 MAY ALSO SEE SOME ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND NOSES INTO OUR NEBRASKA ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE MAIN FEATURES WITH SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE FINER DETAILS. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD AND EACH HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THIS IN MIND THERE ARE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EVERY PERIOD FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT. THE QUESTION IS WHERE THIS FRONT WILL BE AND WHEN THE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR THAT IT IS DRAPED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGH
PLAINS START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
WAVE AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS ROUND WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS A BREAK ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
INTO THE AREA. THE BREAK IS SHORT LIVED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO THE EAST THE STORMS
SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST
AREA AGAIN. MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH A
LITTLE VARIATION UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK THROUGH KGRI EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL SINK TO AROUND KGRI BY MID AFTERNOON AND
THEN STALL OUT RESULTING IN FAIRLY LIGHT AND SHIFTY WINDS. WILL
STILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
REDEVELOP.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB