Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 170607
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
107 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD PUSHED SOUTH THRU NEBRASKA INTO
EASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.  THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT AVERAGED 1 TO 3MB AND A PERIOD OF STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPED WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES IN DEEP MIXING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FM MT AND AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES...WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH FOR A TIME.  THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM ONTO THE PLAINS REGION. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
FRIDAY MORNING WITH MIXING AGAIN AROUND H85. THE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS FARTHER EAST ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTN AND WIND
SPEEDS AGAIN WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. H85 TEMPS DROP ABOUT 7C FROM
TODAY TO FRIDAY AND HIGHS FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS IN 60S. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND A
RELATIVELY COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACES ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE A FROSTY
START TO THE WEEKEND SATURDAY MORNING...AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM NEAR 30 ACROSS THE NORTH...TO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THAT SAID...AFTER ANY FROST MELTS
AWAY...EXPECT A SEASONAL START TO THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THEREAFTER...THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EXPECTED JUST ABOVE EVERY
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A WEAK DISTURBANCE UNDERCUT THE RIDGE SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY...BUT OTHER THAN BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...LITTLE EFFECT WILL BE REALIZED LOCALLY WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE.

LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO TRANSITION
EASTWARD...COULD SEE A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE LOCAL AREA...BRINGING WITH IT THE
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. GIVEN THE FACT THERE IS SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE ABOUT THIS TIME FRAME...KEPT THE CHANCE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK
THAT WAS GENERATED BY THE BLENDED FORECAST. IN ADDITION TO
SHOWERS...IF THIS SYSTEM IS EVENTUALLY REALIZED...COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ADDED TO THE FORECAST...AS WHILE INSTABILITY
IS VERY LIMITED AND ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 200-300 JOULES...CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THIS PERIOD. THAT
SAID...OPTED NOT TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING AS OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW THAT FAR
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND SOME LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THROUGH AROUND DAWN. THE WIND AT THE SFC WILL BE LIGHT
BUT EXPECT GUSTY 35KT NORTHWEST WINDS A FEW HUNDRED FEET UP. THE
SFC WIND WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP AND BECOME GUSTY NOT LONG AFTER
SUNRISE. THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS COMING DOWN OUT OF SOUTH
DAKOTA...BUT MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THESE LOW CLOUDS BREAKING UP
PRIOR TO REACHING KGRI/KEAR. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW LOW
CLOUDS THIS MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...WESELY



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