Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 191739
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1239 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS.  THE PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUED TO FEATURE A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS.  AT THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS IN PLACE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES/DAKOTAS.  SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AND SPREAD NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO
OUR CWA.  ACCORDING TO SHORT TERM MODELS...THE AREA OF STRATUS IN A
SOMEWHAT NARROW BAND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT TO THE NORTH AND EAST
THIS MORNING...LINGERING UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST AND ERODING.  NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AS WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10
MPH.  ALSO EARLY THIS MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WORKED SOUTH INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND IF MODEL TRENDS HOLD...THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD APPROACH OUR NORTHERN ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT WEAKEN AS
THEY SHIFT EAST AND HAVE ONLY WENT WITH SILENT POPS FOR NOW.

ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS ERODE BY MID DAY...WE ARE LOOKING FOR MORE SUN
THAN CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
UPSWING AS HEIGHTS START RISING ALOFT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD NORTH FM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  H85 TEMPS RISE ABOUT 5C
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY INTO THE LOW 20S CELSIUS...WITH RESULTANT MAX
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S.  THESE READINGS WILL BE
EDGING CLOSER BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WHICH ARE IN THE UPPER 80S
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS WEST OF OUR CWA ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND AIDED BY A PROGRESSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TRY TO WORK
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER DARK. WITH EACH MODEL
RUN...CHCS FOR STORMS LOOK LESS AND LESS FOR OUR AREA WITH THE
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING BEFORE MOVING IN.  THIS BEING SAID...CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT JUST AN ISOLATED STORM. ALTHOUGH CHCS LOOK
MEAGER...IF A STORM MOVES IN OR DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT IN THE WAA...A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF GOOD
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

FOR THOSE COOLER-WEATHER LOVERS...IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT ALL
GOOD THINGS MUST COME TO AN END...AS NEARLY THIS ENTIRE 6-DAY
PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FEATURE HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SOMEWHERE
IN THE 90-100 DEGREE RANGE WITHIN THE CWA...AND WITH PLENTY OF
HUMIDITY MOST OF THE TIME AS WELL AS SUMMER RETURNS WITH FULL
FORCE. FOCUSING ON THE HEAT INDEX SITUATION...NEARLY THE ENTIRE
CWA IS FORECAST TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY REACH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
100+ DEGREES ON EACH AFTERNOON BETWEEN SUNDAY-TUESDAY...WITH
PRIMARILY KS ZONES MAKING ANOTHER RUN AT 100 HEAT INDEX ON THURS-
FRI FOLLOWING A POTENTIAL BRIEF RESPITE FROM THIS HIGHER-END HEAT
ON WEDNESDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...FOR ESSENTIALLY THE FIRST TIME
THIS SUMMER A GOOD CHUNK OF PRIMARILY THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA IS
ALSO LOOKING TO REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
VALUES OF 105+ HEAT INDEX ON SUNDAY-TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
GREATEST-OVERALL COVERAGE OF 105+ TARGETING COUNTIES MAINLY
ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 ON MONDAY-TUESDAY. HAVE OBVIOUSLY KEPT
HEAT INDEX CONCERNS GOING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND
UNLESS THINGS TREND DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES IN FUTURE
FORECASTS...AT LEAST PARTS OF THE CWA ARE LOOKING LIKE
INCREASINGLY-LIKELY CANDIDATES FOR THE FIRST HEAT ADVISORY
HEADLINES OF THE YEAR AS THIS TIME FRAME DRAWS NEARER. NOW ALL
THIS BEING SAID...THERE ARE STILL A FEW CAVEATS THAT COULD KEEP
BOTH TEMPS/HEAT INDEX FROM REACHING FULL POTENTIAL...ONE BEING
MORE WIDESPREAD/LONGER-LASTING DAYTIME CLOUD COVER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...AND THE SECOND BEING THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW DISRUPTING THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE A BIT. ALTHOUGH
NEITHER ONE OF THESE CANDIDATES ARE OBVIOUS PLAYERS AT THIS
POINT...THEY BEAR CLOSE WATCHING AS THESE SORT OF THINGS COULD
EASILY TEMPER FORECAST TEMPS/HEAT INDEX BY 5+ DEGREES.

SPEAKING OF CONVECTIVE CHANCES...HAVE REALLY MADE ONLY FAIRLY
MINOR CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH MEANS THAT (AT LEAST
FOR NOW) ANY LOW-END 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE CONFINED TO ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN NEXT FRIDAY. NOW THAT BEING SAID...THIS
DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN THAT OTHER PERIODS MAY NEED FUTURE
CONSIDERATION FOR SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AS DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL ONE LOOKS AT...ARGUMENTS COULD BE MADE FOR INCLUDING SLIGHT
POPS IN SOME AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND ALSO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT (MAINLY PER GFS). HOWEVER...GIVEN
THAT THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC SITUATION INVOLVES A LARGE-SCALE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT LEAST HAVING A FAIR DEGREE OF INFLUENCE ON
THE LOCAL AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...MEANING THAT FORCING SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SUBTLE MOST OF THE TIME IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND RESULTANT CAPPING...THIS IS PROBABLY NOT
THE KIND OF PATTERN WHERE YOU WANT TO THROW A PLETHORA OF POPS AT
THE FORECAST AS IT WILL PROBABLY BY DRY THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.
PUT ANOTHER WAY...ALTHOUGH MANY PERIODS FEATURE AT LEAST TOKEN 10
PERCENT POPS (NOT ZERO)...ONLY 20+ HIGHER POPS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY A
FORMAL RAIN CHANCE IN FORECAST PRODUCTS. AS FOR STRONG-SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME...OBVIOUSLY IF/WHEN STORMS
ARE ABLE TO BREACH STRONG CAPPING...THERE WILL BE TIMES WHERE HIGH
INSTABILITY VALUES COULD PROMOTE AT LEAST A BRIEF THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
AVERAGING 25KT OR LESS SHOULD KEEP A MORE ORGANIZED...WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THREAT AT BAY. GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY/LOW CONFIDENCE IN
STORM DEVELOPMENT LET ALONE SEVERE WEATHER...AGREE WITH THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IN ABSTAINING FROM EVEN TOKEN 5 PERCENT SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ON THE DAY 2-3 OUTLOOKS FOR NOW.

NOW THAT THE BIG-PICTURE ISSUES OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD HAVE BEEN
COVERED...HERE IS SOME MORE DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR CHUNKS...

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE ALOFT INVOLVES
SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES AS THE PARENT MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO EDGES NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHENS A BIT. ALTHOUGH
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGES OF THIS RIDGE AXIS...WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS SHOULD LARGELY KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY...AND HAVE KEPT OUT
POPS FOR NOW...WITH SUPPORT FOR THIS LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
DAYTIME HOURS FROM THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
FIELD. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST ALONG WITH
DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD KICK UP SOUTHERLY WINDS A BIT ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE CWA...AND HAVE DAYTIME WINDS
GENERALLY AIMED 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.
THESE BREEZES WILL AT LEAST TAKE SOME EDGE OFF THE INCREASED
HEAT...AS HIGHS ARE AIMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA...WITH FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES MOST FAVORED TO
REACH/SLIGHTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES. AS FOR HEAT INDEX
CONCERNS...NOT SURE IF THE AREAL EXTENT/DURATION OF 105+ WILL BE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FUTURE ADVISORY HERE.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SLOW-BUT STEADY MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
CONTINUE AS THE LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY
AND INCREASINGLY-DOMINATE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL CONUS
AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN NM AREA. KEPT THE DAYTIME
HOURS VOID OF POPS...ALTHOUGH ITS WORTH NOTING THE LATEST
NAM/ECMWF RUNS INITIATE LATE-DAY CONVECTION ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WITHIN/NEAR THE FAR WESTERN CWA. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE ADVERTISED
SLIGHT CHANCE 20S AREA-WIDE...SO FELT IT PRUDENT TO KEEP THESE
GOING FOR NOW GIVEN AT LEAST LIMITED MODEL SUPPORT. TEMP-
WISE...ALL THINGS CONSIDERED THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE MOST
OPPRESSIVE DAY OF THE WEEK AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO ACTUAL
HIGHS...AIMING FOR UPPER 90S MOST AREAS AND NORTHEAST ZONES MOST
FAVORED TO STAY IN THE MID-90S ALBEIT WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE
70S. THE NET RESULT IS A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF 105+ HEAT
INDEX FOR MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD MORE
INTO CO...WHICH ACTUALLY TURNS FLOW MORE NORTHERLY OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THIS POTENTIALLY ALLOWS A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND A WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE AREA...AND MAYBE
SPARK SOME STORM CHANCES MAINLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN 20-30
POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. DESPITE
THE INVADING COLD FRONT...THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A RATHER
HOT/HUMID DAY AND HAVE HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING MID-90S NORTH TO
UPPER 90S SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY MINIMAL AS THE
LARGE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SPIN CLOCKWISE ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES REGION. KEPT THESE PERIODS DRY FOR
NOW...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAN GFS. IN THE WAKE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
OVERALL-COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK IF YOU WANT TO CALL IT THAT...WITH
HIGHS ONLY AIMED UPPER 80S FAR NORTHEAST TO MID 90S SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DAYTIME...THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN PRETTY
DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS TIME RANGE ON FLATTENING THE RIDGE A BIT
AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS EAST ALONG THE US-
CANADA BORDER. OPTED TO STAY PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST HERE AND LEAVE THURS-THURS NIGHT DRY WHILE KEEPING LOW
POPS FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY. GIVEN
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THESE 2 DAYS...TEMPS LOOK
TO EDGE UPWARD AGAIN INTO ABOVE NORMAL TERRITORY...AND HAVE
PRELIMINARILY AIMED HIGHS ON THURSDAY INTO THE LOW-MID 90S MOST
AREAS...AND THEN MORE-SO UPPER 90S ON FRIDAY IN SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT /ESP EARLY SUN MORNING/ IS NOT THE
HIGHEST...AFTER THE PAST TWO MORNINGS HAVING MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP. DIDNT GO MVFR AT THIS POINT...BUT DO HAVE SCT015/6SM
GOING...WILL SEE HOW NEXT MODEL RUNS TREND. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PATTER WILL BRING CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE TERMINAL AREAS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADO



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