Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 250600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
100 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FAIRLY QUIET DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD. 12Z SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
IN ADDITION TO RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A STOUT MID LEVEL WARM POCKET OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD WHICH WOULD
TYPICALLY CAP OFF ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS BEING
SAID...AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO IN ADVANCE OF
A WEAK VORT MAX. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THIS
CONVECTION HOLDING ON AND SPREADING EAST THROUGHOUT THE LATER
EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT...WILL HOLD ONTO SMALL POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEAT TOMORROW. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 100
DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE KANSAS COUNTIES WITH UPPER 90S SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...WE
SHOULD APPROACH HEAT INDICES IN THE 105+ RANGE. AS A RESULT...WILL
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND ALL THE NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE FOR
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOW 60S FOR LOWS.

RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION IN
MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS PUT AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF TSTMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CONTINUOUS PCPN IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...WILL LEAVE THESE CHANCES IN DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BIGGEST CONCERN IS LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO...WIND WILL EVENTUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT...AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN NORTH AND MOSTLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ063-064-074>077-083>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...HEINLEIN


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