Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 062122
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
322 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

The main forecast concern during this period is the snowfall
forecast for tonight and tomorrow.

The latest guidance has been relatively consistent, showing
relatively small changes to the overall snow forecast for tonight.
Snow totals were reduced during the day yesterday and held steady
with this morning`s forecast. The latest higher-res model
solutions show the main corridor for accumulating snowfall of an
inch to two inches in north central Kansas and in the Nebraska
counties nearest the Kansas border. Elsewhere, including the tri-
cities, some light snow with small accumulations are possible.
However, this system could have a sharp cut off from snow to no
accumulation across south central Nebraska.

As for timing, the chances for snowfall will steadily increase
after midnight, moving from west to east across the area...mainly
along and south of the Kansas/Nebraska border. The majority of
snowfall accumulation is expected Wednesday morning between 6am
and noon, tapering off to the south into eastern Kansas by
Wednesday afternoon.

Temperatures will be cold, highs will struggle to get into the low
to mid 20s during the afternoon. Winds will be northerly between
10-20 mph...keeping wind chill values in the single digits and
teens through the day.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

While snow was the big concern in the short term, the cold is
overall the main concern of the forecast.

Cold arctic air will continue to plague the region through at
least the end of the work week. While it will be cold and well
below normal Thursday and slightly colder Friday morning, the
northerly winds Thursday morning will make wind chill temperatures
dangerously cold. Wind chill values Thursday morning will be
between -10 and -15 degrees. Be prepared to bundle up and avoid
spending long periods of time outside early Thursday. Friday
morning will also be cold, but with the upper ridge moving
overhead, winds will be light and the wind chill values are not
expected to be quite as low as on Thursday morning. Highs on
Thursday will be in the teens and low 20s, and Friday will be
slightly warmer with highs in the 20s. Lows both Thursday and
Friday morning will be in the single digits across the area.

Northwesterly flow will continue through much of the remainder of
the forecast. The next system will approach the area Saturday, but
the cool dry air in place will keep the better chances for
precipitation east of the area. That being said, due to
discrepancies, there are some small chances Saturday night into
Sunday over the north. Watch this forecast period as it evolves
through the rest of the week. Temperatures will be briefly warmer
on Saturday, in the 30s and low 40s before the cold air with this
system moves back in. Highs on Sunday look to be in the 20s and
30s.

As we move into next week, the cold doesn`t seem to stop. After
surface high pressure moves overhead Sunday night into Monday, the
next front dives southward...bringing another cold shot of air to
the region. Currently the guidance indicates that the front will
move through late Monday...so Monday could be more moderate with
highs in the 30s and low 40s, but Tuesday could be colder. Current
forecast for Tuesday shows temps slightly colder than Monday, but
if the GFS/EC pan out...highs could be back in the teens for mid
next week. Stay tuned as this is 7 days out and it will change.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Clear skies are present across much of the Nebraska/Kansas this
afternoon, which will quickly change this evening as higher clouds
then eventually mid and low clouds move in with the next storm
system. Right now the chances for ceilings to drop into MVFR will
be possible towards morning...after 09z into the early morning
hours. The other main concern is the chance for snow. Currently
the majority of the snow is expected to be south and west of both
KEAR/KGRI, but a period of light snow cannot be ruled out at
either terminal. Winds will be breezy from the northwest today,
decreasing during the overnight hours.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Billings Wright


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