Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 220858

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
358 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Today...Outstanding day for late October with highs in the mid to
upper 70s under clear skies. The wind will be southerly and a bit
breezy in the afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens up
between a high plains trough and a southeastern CONUS sfc high.
Expect elevated/near critical fire danger across our western zones
where dewpoints and RH values will be lowest. See fire weather
section for more information.

Tonight...Decided to go slightly cooler than the superblend in our
typically cooler areas of Ord and Lexington, leaning more on
MET/MAV guidance. Clear and dry weather will continue.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Primary forecast concern through the long term lies with Tuesday
thunderstorm chances.

Overall there hasn`t been much change in the forecast at the start
off the forecast period, Sunday and Monday. Models are in pretty
good agreement showing zonal flow on Sunday, with a broad/lower
amplitude ridge over the Rockies, set up between areas of low
pressure over the far northeastern CONUS and off the coast of the
Pac NW. Sunday night through Monday night, dry conditions remain in
the forecast as that upper level ridging slides east across the
Plains. At the surface, Sunday starts off with a cold front
continuing to push south through the area, likely still over far
southeastern portions of the area at sunrise. N-NE winds are
expected through the daytime hours, with diminishing winds later in
the day as surface high pressure builds into the region from the
northwest. During the day on Monday, southerly winds return, the
surface high is pushing off to the east and low pressure is
organizing to our west. The cooler air mass looks to bring mid 60s
to lower 70s for highs both Sun/Mon.

Tuesday/Tuesday night brings the next chance for precipitation to
the area, and is the only chance through the rest of the period
(Friday). Models aren`t in too bad of agreement showing an upper
level shortwave disturbance moving through eastern Colorado during
the morning hours, then sliding through the Central Plains during
the afternoon/evening. Surface low pressure accompanying the system
looks to slide right across the CWA, with it and its frontal
boundaries being the focus for shower/thunderstorm development.
While some isolated activity will be possible anytime after midday,
the better chances look to be late in the afternoon and into the
evening hours. With the continued southerly winds continuing into
Tuesday, models continue to show the potential for a narrow axis of
60 degree dewpoints to work their way back far enough north to
result in several hundred (possibly near 1000) j/kg of CAPE. If that
amount of moisture is able to work its way back in, while deep layer
shear isn`t the greatest, couldn`t rule out some thunderstorms being
on the strong/marginally severe side. At this point will keep
mention in the HWO at strong, want to see how models trend with the
potential. Current model timing/location of features also shows the
better chances for precip would be across the eastern half of the

Dry conditions return to the forecast for the remainder of the
period Wed-Fri, with models in good agreement showing upper level
ridging returning in the wake of Tuesday`s system. At this point not
expecting significant swings in temperatures, with forecast highs
remaining in the 60s/70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

VFR conditions are expected with clear skies throughout the TAF
forecast period. Light winds tonight could be a bit breezy out of
the south southeast during the day on Saturday. There could be
some strong low level wind shear as we head into Saturday evening,
primarily from KGRI and points to the east.


Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Lowered dewpoints slightly and increased winds this afternoon
compared to the superblend output. Believe that we will be closer
to MET/MAV values during peak heating. These adjustments get us
right to our fire weather headline thresholds of 20 RH and 20G25
MPH winds across our west/northwestern counties for a brief hour
or two. Thinking is that if going with a more worse case
scenerio only briefly gets us to thresholds, then will be best to
hold off on fire weather headline at this time, but can certainly
not rule out a brief period of critical fire weather conditions in
a few isolated western locations this afternoon.




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