Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 200508
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1208 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Temperatures this afternoon have surged into the 70s and 80s
across the area, which is nearly 30 degrees above normal for mid
March.

This evening the front will slide southeastward through the area
which will cause winds to become west to northwesterly. Overnight
a second surge of cold air advection will build as winds become
northerly. Highs tomorrow will be about 20 degrees cooler than
today...but still well above the low 50s normal for the first day
of Spring.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

This is an active period with various chances for precipitation.

On Monday night a weak disturbance will slide southeastward over
the Northern Plains and will cause a chance for precipitation
across the region during the overnight hours into early Tuesday
morning. With temperatures dropping during the overnight hours,
there could be a brief period of a rain/snow mix, but this would
be short lived and am not expecting any snow accumulation.

On Tuesday with the reinforced cool air...highs will be in the
40s...which is slightly cooler than normal. Another weak
disturbance will bring a chance for precipitation Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Again the main precipitation chance will be rain,
but a mix transitioning to snow may be possible during the early
morning hours Wednesday.

Highs on Wednesday will again be cooler than normal with highs in
the 40s and cloudy skies.

As upper level ridging slides eastward, southwesterly flow aloft
will return for Thursday. In the warm, moist advection regime,
temperatures will warm and precipitation potential will again
increase for Thursday through the end of the week. A surface low
develops ahead of the upper low digging into the four corners
region. Various guidance currently have this upper low lifting
northeast out of the four corners region early Friday. This will
pull the associated surface low and front through the Plains then.
Ahead of this, temperatures on Thursday will return back into the
above normal 60s and 70s with breezy southerly winds. There will
be a chance for thunderstorms Thursday night as instability
increases in the warm moist advection over Kansas and southern
Nebraska. The front will move through south central Nebraska and
north central Kansas early Friday, with a chance for preciptiation
behind the front Friday and Friday evening. Temperatures will
cool behind the front, but they currently look to stay above
freezing. This looks to be the best chance for a potentially
meaningful rain...with amounts more than a quarter inch possible.

Saturday and Sunday will be above normal again with highs in the
60s as a brief amplified ridge moves overhead. The next chance for
precipitation looks to be just after this forecast period as
another wave moves across the Plains Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the forecast period.
Surface winds should gradually switch from north to northeast
during the daytime with low pressure to the south continuing to
sink south, and high pressure to the north.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Ewald



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