Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 142358
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
558 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 538 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Regarding snowfall, am not very impressed by the current radar
trends or by the recent runs of the HRRR. It is looking like most
of south central Nebraska will see little if any snowfall this
evening and a dusting might be the extent of it. Further south
across north central Kansas there is still some hope of getting a
little light snowfall accumulation, but a half inch may be on the
high end. All in all, snow this evening is not looking to be a
big deal. The cold air that this front brings down will be the
more significant and lasting impact the next few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Forecast still largely on track as an arctic front is about to
slam the Central Plain. Radar already showing the light
precip moving into the CWA from the north, so the earlier as
indicated by the previous shift is warranted. As stated, some
flurry/light snow activity is headed our way with this arctic
push, with the surface possibly cooling down fast enough to
outpace the cooling of the elevated warm layer, potentially giving
us a very brief period of sleet or even freezing rain as we go
from sprinkle/rain potential to flurry/snow potential. The cold
front will barrel south quick enough to taper off our snow chances
rather quickly and less than half an inch is expected on the
Nebraska side. Most precip should wrap up shortly after 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Went with CONSshort for lows tonight/highs Monday, with highs in
the single digits and teens for Monday and Tuesday with a modest
warmup in store as the week further progresses and the upper ridge
edges east. We have another shot at Rain/Snow over the weekend
in advance of yet another amplified longwave trough approaching,
which will introduce yet another shot of cold air toward the very
end of the long term and beyond. We cannot seem to break this
persistent cold pattern as fast as we had once thought it would.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 538 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

The cold front will swing through this evening turning the winds
to northerly and they should be a bit gusty especially later
tonight and right through Monday. Ceilings will be a bit tricky
this evening and could briefly see some MVFR conditions, but
not expecting IFR at this time. Any snow should be light and
primarily just a dusting if we see some.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM Monday to noon CST Tuesday for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM Monday to noon CST Tuesday for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wesely
SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Wesely



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