Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 161722
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1122 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 227 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Potentially record-setting warmth is the the main topic of interest
today. The area will be directly under the ridge axis by late this
afternoon. As a result, I bumped up temperatures across the area by
a 2 to 3 degrees for this afternoon. New record high temperatures
at Hastings and/or Grand Island seems like a pretty good bet at
this point. See the climate section below for more information.
Mostly clear skies and light westerly winds gradually becoming
southwesterly will also contribute to a beautiful day...especially
for mid-February!

The warm temperature-wise will translate to low RH values as
well. Luckily, the light winds (5-10 mph) should mitigate any
significant fire weather concerns.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Above normal temperatures will continue through the extended periods
with the next chance for precipitation arriving in the Sunday night
and Monday morning time frames.

The workweek will end with record or near record high temperatures
Friday with highs forecast right around 70 degrees. Current records
for February 17th stand at 71 degrees for Grand Island and 74
degrees for Hastings. An upper ridge axis across the northern and
central plains shifts east Friday afternoon with a cool front
advancing south during the afternoon and evening. Weekend
temperatures will drop back into the 60s for highs in the slightly
cooler air, but still well above normals for this time of year which
are closer to 40 degrees. Will need to monitor the potential for low
cloud cover across our southeast counties Saturday/Saturday night in
association with an upper low crossing the southern plains as
southerly lowlevel flow increases heading into Sunday.

The pattern becomes more amplified late in the weekend and early
next week as upper trough moves into the Rockies and then emerges
onto the plains. Moisture and lift increases ahead of the
approaching system Sunday night with chances for rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms returning to the forecast. Model precipitable
water values average three quarters of an inch which are roughly
three standard deviations above normal for this time of year. How
much rain we see is still a bit up in the air as the the system
splits with a low progged to close off well to our south in the
southern plains while the northern stream tracks across the northern
plains. Currently the heavier rainfall looks to impact locations to
the south and east of us. Once this system moves past Monday, the
pattern aloft transitions more zonal with dry and mild weather
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

VFR conditions expected to prevail at both terminals. Light
westerly winds are expected today and tonight. A front will begin
to move through the area by mid morning/afternoon Friday and will
cause winds to become northwesterly, but still light. Only a few
high clouds are expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 235 AM CST Wed Feb 16 2017

Records for February 16th and 17th for Grand Island and Hastings

February 16th Record Highs
Grand Island.....73 degrees in 1921
Hastings.........69 degrees in 1981

February 17th Record Highs
Grand Island.....71 degrees in 1981 & 1970
Hastings.........74 degrees in 1981

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Billings Wright
CLIMATE...Mangels



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