Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 132350
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
550 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 537 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Forecast seems reasonably on track for the snow this evening. Am
considering sliding the snowband slightly further southwest based
on the trends in the HRRR model and actual snow band location as
it`s beginning to form now over the sandhills. Any shifting of the
snow band further southwest would probably be rather minor at
only a 10 to 15 mile shift. Will continue to watch radar trends
and make possible adjustments to our snow forecast as we head
through the evening. Overall the 1-2 inches in the primary band
through the heart of our forecast area from northwest to southeast
looks good with some isolated 3 inch amounts possible. A south
wind at 5 to 15 mph averaging around 10 mph is light enough to not
have much of an impact.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Forecast is still mainly on track with a few nudges made. I
increased POPS and snow amounts a bit as there seems to be
increasing agreement in short term models. We could even see a few
three inch reports, but this depends on where the mid-level jet
streak axis winds up being with the associated low-amplitude wave.
The bulk of any snow should be late evening and early overnight.
Lows tonight will be in the 11-14 range early and will rise
overnight as anticipated as a warm front approaches. Our quick
break from the cold still on track for Sunday with highs in the
mid 30s to lower 40s, but I went a bit more pessimistic for highs
and with with CONSshort.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Arctic air make another return with more snow possible with the
cold push, with possibly some brief sleet in transition from rain
to snow. Snow amounts do not look like a whole lot, but wind
chills could be pushing -30 Monday morning. Wind chills look like
they will be in the -15 to -20 range Tuesday morning. Another
modest warmup is on the way toward the end of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday)
Issued at 537 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

The main concern will be the accumulating snow with most of it
falling this evening/tonight between 7pm and 2am. Visibility will
likely bounce around as the snow intensity varies but should
range from around 1/2 mile up to around 3SM through most of the
event. Ceilings will also fall with the snow into at least low end
MVFR and possibly into IFR range at times. Everything improves
as the snow ends and we near dawn.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wesely
SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Wesely



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