Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 180535

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1235 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Issued at 609 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Will be letting the red flag warning expire at 7 pm. Lexington was still
hitting the wind and RH criteria at 6 pm, but expect RH values
will quickly increase by 7 pm as the sun sets.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Second day in row to start off with plenty of stratus and fog
around, once again it was slow to dissipate for some. A narrow
axis running from just southwest of Hastings, up through Grand
Island and into Nance County was very stubborn, with Hast/GI just
getting sun in the last hour, while part of Nance/Merrick are
still stuck under the clouds. At the surface, an area of low
pressure has been gradually pushing east across the area,
accompanied by a cold frontal boundary which is about halfway
through the CWA. Gusty southerly winds affecting the eastern half
of the CWA, with gusty northwest winds just now starting to work
into the west. Plan on cancelling a portion of the RFW, between
the lingering cloud cover messing with temps/dpts and the
boundary through the area, eastern portions of the RFW will be let
go. The chances of even western areas actually hitting criteria
are not high, but with the warmest temps occurring now and gustier
winds starting to build in, will keep it going. 3 pm temps range
from the upper 60s where that stratus was, to the lower 80s on the
fringes of the CWA.

Dry conditions remain in the forecast for tonight/tomorrow, as the
generally zonal flow aloft continues across the Central Plains.
At the surface, this area of low pressure/front will continue
pushing east this evening, with high pressure building in across
the region during the day tomorrow. Will be a pleasant, cooler day
tomorrow, with winds in the afternoon around 5-10 MPH and highs in
the mid 60s to near 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Main concern in the long term period lies with mid-week
precipitation chances.

Tuesday night, models are in good agreement showing upper level
flow turning more southwesterly, as a low amplitude shortwave
disturbance is pushing through the Rockies. A few models try to
bring some light QPF into far northwestern areas very early Wed
morning, but will continue to keep the forecast dry unless there
is more support. Overall there hasn`t been any significant changes
in the 12Z models with the timing/location of this disturbance,
bringing it through the area mainly during the daytime hours on
Wednesday. One minor change was that things may not clear the CWA
as quickly, lingering a bit into the evening, and did add 20 PoPs
to eastern portions of the CWA. Models continue to show
instability concentrated south- southeast of the area, and kept
the thunder mention out. Expecting a bump down in highs for
Wednesday, with upper 50s north to mid 60s south current in the

For the remainder of the long term period, Thursday through
Sunday, the forecast continues to be a dry one. Models are in
good agreement that once this mid week disturbance slides east,
northwesterly flow/ridging takes its place. Expecting a gradual
warm up through the end of the week, with 70s for the upcoming


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

General overview:
Confidence is actually quite high in VFR visibility/ceiling for a
change, as we finally get a respite from the dense fog and/or low
ceilings that plagued the terminals the previous two mornings.
Confidence is also high it remains rain-free, with only gradually
increasing mid level cloud cover especially very late in the
period. About the only real concern involves low level wind shear
(LLWS) right away this morning. Read on for details...

Surface winds and LLWS:
While the majority of the period will feature light breezes (10kt
or less), things are a touch more interesting right away early
this morning, as a "secondary cold front" of sorts races across
the area, accompanied by a healthy surge of stronger winds
slightly above the surface. Although sustained surface speeds
through these next 5 hours or so should largely average around
12kt or less, don`t be surprised to see a brief spike up to
around 20kt with higher gusts. Regarding LLWS, although it is
admittedly a bit marginal for formal mention, will maintain this
through 11z to account for a rapid increase in northwest winds
within the lowest 1,000 thousand feet, creating roughly 30kt of
shear magnitude between the surface and this level.




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