Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 271545
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1045 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

HAVE MADE VARIOUS "LITTLE" UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF TODAY:

1) GIVEN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION
FILLING IN BEHIND THE STRONG...ROUGHLY 996 MILLIBAR SURFACE LOW
CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE TRI-CITIES...HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS AN
OVERAGE OF 4-6 DEGREES TODAY. BARRING SOME UNEXPECTED SUN...MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHWEST IS LIKELY TO REMAIN STUCK IN THE MID 40S
TO NEAR 50...WITH WARMER MID TO UPPER 50S MORE COMMON IN FAR
SOUTHERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

2) ATTEMPTED TO REFINE PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) AS MUCH AS
POSSIBLE...AS THE CURRENT LULL IN THE DRY SLOT OVER MOST OF THE
CWA IS EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS WRAP
BACK SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND THE LOW MAINLY OVER NEB ZONES. OVERALL
THOUGH...ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD AVERAGE LESS THAN
ONE-QUARTER INCH FOR MOST PLACES.

3) REMOVED ANY CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...BUT LEFT AN ISOLATED CHANCE GOING IN FAR EAST-NORTHEAST
COUNTIES WHERE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COULD WRAP NORTHWEST INTO
COUNTIES NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. SHOULD ANY STORMS DEVELOP IN OUR
NORTHEAST CWA (BETTER CHANCES ARE EAST OF US)...SMALL HAIL AND
MAYBE EVEN A BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD SIGHTING PROBABLY CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT GIVEN THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. THIS IS FAR FROM A LIKELY SCENARIO THOUGH.

4) LINGERING FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE MAINLY OVER
SEPARATE...NARROW CORRIDORS OF 3+ INCH RAINFALL THAT TARGETED BOTH
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AND
WELL-PUBLICIZED FLOODING OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS IMPACTING THE
EASTERN NUCKOLLS/WESTERN THAYER AREA. AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS
(FLWGID) WERE EARLIER EXTENDED THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN TOUCH WITH LOCAL OFFICIALS REGARDING
WHETHER OR NOT FURTHER EXTENSIONS ARE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SURFACE LOW HAS BEEN DRIFTING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS WINDS
FROM THE EAST WHILE THE WESTERN PART HAS NORTH WINDS.

THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
TODAY. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AS WELL. EXPECT THERE TO BE SHOWERS AND MAINLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. IT PROBABLY WILL NOT
RAIN ALL DAY...BUT THERE WILL BE PRECIPITATION AROUND THE AREA.
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPE SO EXPECT MOSTLY SHOWERS...BUT
THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE AT TIMES. WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION AROUND THE AREA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A LITTLE
COOLER. ONE OF THE MAIN QUESTIONS FOR THE DAY IS AS THE LOW DRIFTS
TO THE NORTHEAST...WILL THERE BE ANY CLEARING IN THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE MODELS TRY TO LIFT THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH AND AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS HAVE THE PRECIPITATION MOVE OUT WITH A LITTLE CLEARING...BUT
SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS TRY TO LINGER PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS
A LITTLE LONGER. IF THAT IS THE CASE...THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE.

AS WE GET INTO TONIGHT BOTH THE UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW DRIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE NIGHT. THERE
IS NO CAPE TONIGHT SO HAVE JUST KEPT SHOWERS. THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME CLOUDS LINGERING AND ONLY THE FAR SOUTH MAY HAVE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE MID AND LONG TERM IS THAT IT IS WET!

MID-TERM (THURSDAY - FRIDAY):
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST WITH WEAK
RIDGING BUILDING IN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS
DRY DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THINGS QUICKLY CHANGE BY THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS ON THE HEELS OF THE CURRENT ONE.
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND MOVE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH. THE NAM AND
ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING...MOVING THE PRECIPITATION IN
QUICKER THURSDAY NIGHT...THAN THE GFS WHICH HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL
CLOSER TO FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST WITH THE QUICKER
NAM/EC AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.
THIS WILL KEEP NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN
THE PRIME LOCATION FOR PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE AS A LACK OF SUNSHINE AND RAIN WILL
DOMINATE THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE 50S BY FRIDAY.

LONG-TERM (SATURDAY - TUESDAY):
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
RAINY...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE GUIDANCE ON IF SOME AREAS
OF KANSAS WILL DRY OUT OR STAY WET DURING THE DAY. CURRENTLY THE
FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION IS AROUND 1-2 INCHES FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES...IF
MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...FLOODING COULD BECOME A CONCERN.
A WET PERIOD A COUPLE WEEKS AGO AGGRAVATED BY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE KEPT THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MOIST...MORE SO
THAN THE EVENT IN MID-APRIL. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...THUNDER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED.

THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AND IS PICKED UP IN THE
UPPER FLOW AND MOVES EAST WHILE A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW/TROUGH
SPINS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SUNDAY COULD BE RAINY FOR A BIT
WHILE THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT...BUT THEN SHOULD DRY OUT
BRIEFLY. IT WILL BE BRIEF THOUGH...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES APPROACH AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN A SIMILAR
PATTERN TO WHAT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
OVERTAKE THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. SIMILAR TO EARLY IN THE
WEEK...THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE RAIN...WITHOUT MUCH
THUNDER.

WITH RAIN DOMINATING THE LONG-TERM PORTION...TEMPERATURES ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL...IN THE 50S WITH SOME
LOW 60S POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS MORNING
THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS WITH IFR CEILINGS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER...BUT THAT IS SUCH A SMALL CHANCE HAVE
LEFT IT OUT.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AVIATION...JCB



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