Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 200558

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1258 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

With lingering light showers in northern Kansas departing by late
morning, temperatures have rebounded quickly. Sufficient mixing
from aloft brought down relatively dry air and occasional gusty
winds leading to lower dewpoints across the area helping temps to
warm up a couple degrees more than anticipated. Diurnally driven
cumulus have also developed but should dissipate once the sun

Tuesday brings our next chance for severe weather mainly for
southwestern portions of the area. With a marginal risk in place
and a slight risk just on the fringe of the CWA. An isolated
thunderstorm or two may develop in the vicinity of the triple-
point with more spotty shower development possible along the warm
front as it drifts northward before stalling out just south of

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Wednesday looks to provide the best potential for severe storms
over the next several days with much of the area in a slight
risk for severe weather. A cold front is forecast to move across
the area late afternoon into the evening hours. This will serve as
the primary lifting mechanism for storms late afternoon and
evening. With 2500-3500 j/kg of MUCAPE and 35-40 kt of bulk shear
in place strong to severe storms are possible if they develop
before the front exits our area to the east.

Thursday the front stalls out and lifts back into the area
providing support for additional thunderstorms. At least
marginally severe storms are possible. Although a few model
differences exist, am generally expecting the front to remain
stalled out across the area through the day Friday with additional
rain showers and thunderstorms possible.

Saturday through Monday look to be much cooler with highs in the
70s and low 80s across the area. Isolated chances for showers are
possible Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Confidence is actually pretty high in VFR conditions through the
period, with mainly just a few passing mid-high clouds through the
first half and then perhaps somewhat enhanced mid clouds during
the evening, likely tied to thunderstorm development to the south.
Speaking of thunderstorm potential, while the chance of storms at
both KGRI/KEAR is not truly "zero" during the late
afternoon/evening hours, the greater potential currently appears
to reside at least 25-50 miles off to the south. Thus will not
even carry a generic "vicinity" (VCTS) mention for now, but this
will need monitored very closely because any storms that fire in
the general region could become severe. Otherwise, surface winds
should not be much of an issue with sustained speeds largely
at/below 10kt (unless thunderstorm outflow comes into play). Wind
direction is a little uncertain especially during the afternoon,
but in general the first half of the period will prevail westerly
while especially the final 6 hours should flip around to easterly.
Toward the extreme end of the period around 06Z some low level
wind shear (LLWS) could start to become an issue, but this will be
addressed in later issuances if necessary.




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