Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGID 282324
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
624 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

ALOFT: AN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN WAS IN
PLACE OVER N AMERICA...WITH A +2 SD RIDGE/SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER
THE W AND A -2 SD TROF/LOW OVER THE E. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NNW-N
FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU 6 PM/MON. A SHORTWAVE TROF WAS
MOVING THRU THE RIDGE OVER ALBERTA. THIS TROF WILL DIVE SSE AND
MOVE THRU HERE TOMORROW WITH ESSENTIALLY NO IMPACT ON OUR WX DUE
TO A LACK OF MOISTURE.

SURFACE: A VERY WEAK COOL FRONT HAS EXITED E AND S OF THE FCST AREA.
IT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON TEMPS. WEAK NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES WILL CONT
S...SETTLING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE SRN PLAINS
TOMORROW.

AS FOR THE FCST...MOSTLY CLEAR THRU TOMORROW. JUST SOME OCCASIONAL
PATCHES OF 20-25K FT CIRROSTRATUS DRIFTING THRU THAT COULD
TEMPORARILY TURN THE SKY P/CLOUDY. LIGHT WINDS AND COMFORTABLE
DWPTS/HUMIDITY. TEMPS ARE BASICALLY CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS
FCST AND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

SMOKE PLUME: SATELLITE SHOWS A RIBBON OF SMOKE ALOFT ORIGINATING
FROM A FOREST FIRE OVER CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN. IT CAN BE SEEN IN THE
ERN HORIZON. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A LOT MORE DIFFUSE SMOKE OVER
WRN CANADA. IT IS PROBABLE THAT SOME OF THIS WILL CONT TO CIRCULATE
DOWN INTO THE REGION. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE THE COLORS
OF SUNRISES/SUNSETS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

PRECIPITATION-WISE: FOR THOSE WHO PERUSED THIS DISCUSSION
YESTERDAY...OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE "BIG PICTURE"
THINKING...ALTHOUGH A FEW FORECAST PERIODS HAVE "DRIED OUT" LATE
IN THE WEEK...AT LEAST FOR NOW. IN THE MORE IMMEDIATE
TERM...CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY
IF NOT THE ENTIRE CWA WILL REMAIN VOID OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY...BEFORE THE FIRST "OFFICIAL"
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OF THE WEEK MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE CONTINUED HINTS IN SOME MODELS
(ESPECIALLY THE GFS) THAT AT LEAST LIMITED...SPOTTY WEAK
CONVECTION COULD AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN ZONES RIGHT AWAY MONDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH AM STILL SKEPTICAL ENOUGH OF THIS MONDAY NIGHT
RAIN POTENTIAL TO FOREGO A FORMAL MEASURABLE POP...DID ACKNOWLEDGE
THIS SLIM POTENTIAL BY ADDING A "SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES" TO
MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...SOMETHING
FOR NEXT FEW SHIFTS TO WATCH TO SEE IF THIS SPRINKLE POTENTIAL
NEEDS MAINTAINED...REMOVED OR RAMPED UP. LOOKING BEYOND TUESDAY
NIGHT...VARIOUS...CURRENTLY-LESS-THAN- LIKELY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES PERSIST WITHIN THE CWA WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
THURSDAY DAYTIME STILL LOOKING LIKE THE OVERALL GREATEST RAIN
CHANCE OF THE WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD 30-40 POPS. BEYOND THURSDAY
NIGHT...ANY PREVIOUSLY-ADVERTISED SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY-
SATURDAY DAYTIME HAVE BEEN REMOVED...BUT THE "NEW" FORECAST
PERIODS AT THE VERY END NOW FEATURE SOME LOW-CONFIDENCE 20-30
PERCENT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THAT
BEING SAID...WANT TO AGAIN STRESS THAT THOSE WITH SATURDAY EVENING
INDEPENDENCE DAY INTERESTS SHOULD DEFINITELY NOT GET TOO CONCERNED
YET ABOUT THESE RAIN CHANCES...AS THEY CARRY A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY AND ARE FAR FROM A SURE THING. QUITE HONESTLY...IT
WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY BEFORE WE CAN START
STANDING BEHIND THE INDEPENDENCE DAY/EVENING FORECAST WITH A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE SO STAY TUNED.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS...REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
THINKING FROM YESTERDAY AT ALL. RIGHT OFF THE BAT TUESDAY
NIGHT...FAIRLY MEAGER INSTABILITY APPEARS TO KEEP ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT QUITE MINIMAL WITH ANY STORMS. FOR THE WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...IT BECOMES A BIT HARDER TO SAY...AS
THE PRESENCE OF LIKELY SOMEWHAT HIGHER INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR THAT LOOKS TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SOMEWHAT
ABOVE AVERAGE IN STRENGTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...COULD HELP
FOSTER AT LEAST SOME LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THAT THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL OUT IN THE DAY 4-5 RANGE...WE WILL
CONTINUE THE SAME APPROACH LOCALLY THAT THE LATEST SPC DAY 4-7
OUTLOOK TAKES...MEANING ESSENTIALLY "PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW" TO
HANG YOUR HAT ON ANY PARTICULAR TIME FRAMES FOR SEVERE.

TEMPERATURE-WISE: CERTAINLY NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FEW
FORECASTS HERE...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS STILL EXPECTED TO
SEE HIGHS AVERAGE SOMEWHERE IN THE 80S ON MOST OF THESE
DAYS...EXCEPT FOR 90S BEING MORE LIKELY ESPECIALLY NEAR/SOUTH OF
THE STATE LINE ON TUES-WED AND SAT-SUN. THE OVERALL-HOTTEST OF
THESE 6 DAYS STILL APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY...WHEN EVEN THE MAJORITY
OF NEBRASKA ZONES ARE AIMED INTO THE LOW 90S...WITH THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA LIKELY FLIRTING WITH 100. FRIDAY IS THE EARLY
CANDIDATE TO BE THE OVERALL-COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT...WITH MOST NEBRASKA ZONES ONLY LOW-80S.
INDEPENDENCE DAY SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE MID-UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE CWA WITH ANY 90S MOST LIKELY IN KS...WHICH IS RIGHT ON
PAR WITH SEASONAL NORMALS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS ON MOST NIGHTS
SHOULD AVERAGE SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S.

WRAPPING THINGS UP AS USUAL WITH A QUICK LOOK AT SOME DAY-TO-DAY
DETAILS...

MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT: IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE CWA REMAINS
UNDER FAIRLY SHARP NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...TO THE EAST OF AN
EXPANSIVE/LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER UTAH. AS COVERED IN THE
PRECIP PARAGRAPH ABOVE...MODELS SEEM TO BE BECOMING MORE
SUGGESTIVE OF SOME WEAK...ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN CWA MAINLY POST-MIDNIGHT ALONG THE NOSE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH HAVE NOT FULLY BOUGHT INTO THIS ENOUGH TO ADD
A FORMAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCE...DID THROW IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES FOR NOW.

TUESDAY DAYTIME: ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS DRY...THIS
MAY ALSO BE A BIT QUESTIONABLE...AS SOME WEAK CONVECTION FROM
MONDAY NIGHT COULD CONCEIVABLY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BUT
FOR NOW DID NOT FEEL COMPELLED TO "RUIN" THE GOING DRY FORECAST
PENDING STRONGER CONVECTIVE SIGNALS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...QUITE
POSSIBLY THE WARMEST/HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT: THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST "MORE
OBVIOUS" RAIN CHANCE OF THE WEEK...AND HAVE MAINTAINED SOME 20-40
POPS CWA-WIDE...BUT HIGHEST IN THE NORTH IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
THE RESPONSIBLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY REGION.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY THE MAJORITY OF THESE 24 HOURS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING TUESDAY NIGHT DISTURBANCE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOME
TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE 20 POPS FOR NOW IN VARIOUS AREAS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THESE 24 HOURS (ESPECIALLY THE DAYTIME)
STILL LOOK TO FEATURE THE OVERALL HIGHEST CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN POTENTIAL OF THE ENTIRE WEEK...AS BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF/GFS AGREE THAT A FAIRLY POTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE WILL
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A MODEST-TO-
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-SATURDAY DAYTIME: ALTHOUGH OF COURSE TO EARLY TO
"GUARANTEE" SO...THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL EVIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST CWA-WIDE THROUGH THIS 36-HOUR TIME FRAME...AS
THINGS TEMPORARILY STABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF THE THURSDAY SYSTEM.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY DAYTIME: OBVIOUSLY PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...BUT BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THAT ONE OR
TWO MORE WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD PASS THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND THUS HAVE SOME LOW-END 20-30 POPS RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THOUGH...IT IS FAR...FAR TOO EARLY TO
GET TOO CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLY INTERFERING WITH
SATURDAY EVENING ACTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

WIND SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE SUN SETS. ONLY
SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS/SMOKE EXPECTED AS THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE MUCH OF ANYTHING ELSE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.