Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

028
FXUS63 KGID 241941
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
241 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

At 19Z, scattered thunderstorms have pushed east of our forecast
area and are primarily across eastern parts of Nebraska. Severe
weather chances are limited at best today, but cannot rule out a
rogue storm or two that could possibly produce hail near the size
of a nickel or perhaps wind gusts around 40 mph. Otherwise, skies
should gradually clear from west to east through tonight, and
mostly clear skies are expected Sunday across the forecast area. A
cold front will stall out tonight across the forecast area, and
eventually push east of the local area tomorrow morning. Behind
the front, a cold airmass will produce temperatures below normal
for this time of year with highs only reaching the upper 60s to
lower 70s Sunday afternoon. In addition, wind speeds will be
strong behind the front with speeds of 15 to 25 mph expected from
the northwest during the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Overall the long term is quiet weather-wise. The most noteworthy
item is the potential for frost Sunday night...albeit a low chance
at this time. The atmosphere appears to be a little too dry for
actual frost to develop. However...based purely on
temperatures...patchy frost is possible across low lying areas and
valleys across south central Nebraska...or basically some areas
mainly west/northwest of the Tri- Cities.

Then there is the potential for thunderstorms later in the week.
Confidence is low thunderstorms will develop, but there certainly is
the possibility for some isolated thunderstorms to develop.
Needless to say, but confidence for severe weather potential is
very low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

The two terminals will be split between VFR and MVFR conditions
essentially. KEAR could flirt with MVFR conditions for ceilings...but
will likely stay in VFR throughout this TAF period.
KGRI...however...will be in MVFR conditions through at least late
this afternoon before ceilings increase. Also...KGRI could go in
and out of lightning near the terminal for weak thunderstorms...but
I felt it was not worth mentioning since it could likely be hit or
miss.

Otherwise...there is a window of opportunity for low level wind
shear tonight as the front stalls out over the Central
Plains...and wind speeds go light and variable at the surface.
This window is from roughly 08Z to about 13Z. I left this out of
the TAF right now because it appears to fall right around minimum
requirements. Since it barely meets LLWS requirements...and its
still 12+ hrs out...felt this could be omitted from the TAF for
now. Confidence is too low it actually comes to fruition seeing
the wind speeds could increase behind the front sooner tomorrow
than what is currently forecast. That being said...it is worth
mentioning now in this discussion...and perhaps adding to
subsequent TAFs later today.


&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Guerrero
LONG TERM...Guerrero
AVIATION...Guerrero



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.