Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 240534
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1234 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.

SOFTWARE UPGRADE THIS MORNING SO WE ARE MISSING SOME MODEL DATA AND
AM GETTING A LATE START BUT OTHERWISE THE SYSTEM UPGRADE HAS
RESULTED IN NO MAJOR ISSUES.

STARTING WITH THE BIG PICTURE ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER
AIR DATA SHOWING A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY WITH WEAK
TROUGHING IN THE EAST...WEAK RIDGING CENTRAL AND A NEGATIVE TILTED
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DECENT HEIGHT FALLS NOTED
WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH AT 500 MB OF 50 TO 70 METERS IN THE LAST 12
HRS. CAN ALSO SEE ANOTHER WAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE LOCATED NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE STRETCHED
FROM WEST CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE FRONT THAT
PASSED SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY WAS HUNG UP NEAR THE OK/KS
BORDER. VISIBLE IMAGERY NOTED LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING BUT THESE HAVE MOVE NORTHEAST AND/OR DISSIPATED
SINCE THEN LEAVING THIN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CWA.

THE PATTERN SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LEAD WAVE MOVING IN THIS
EVENING AND THE PRIMARY WAVE MOVING OVER THE CWA TOMORROW MORNING
AFTER SUNRISE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 03
AND 09Z AND PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE MUCAPE
VALUES COULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG. RESPECTABLE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF 40-50 KT AT THAT TIME. CHECKING PERCEPTIBLE WATER
VALUES...THEY ARE A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR TSTMS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA DUE
TO ITEMS NOTED ABOVE ALONG WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS KANSAS AND A LOW LEVEL JET THAT REALLY GETS GOING IN THE
04-09Z TIMEFRAME WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE AREA FROM THIS JET OVER
NORTHERN KS. SO ELEVATED TSTMS...SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

INSTABILITY WANES OVER THE REGION AFTER 09-12Z. BUT WITH MAIN
SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST DRAGGING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS US...CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. IF THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS AS
PREDICTED...SHOULD SEE DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO CHECK FIRE WEATHER ISSUES FOR OUR
SOUTHWEST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS AND RH COULD APPROACH RED
FLAG CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS MOVED TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING AND
THE PRECIPITATION IS OUT OF THE AREA AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER AGAIN...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
AND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THERE IS COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON WEDNESDAY...THEN COOLER
STILL ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL
BE BACK AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO
THE UPPER WAVE. HAVE WENT WITH RAIN AND SNOW SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND FREEZING.

WARM ADVECTION STARTS BACK UP ON FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW
TO WARM AND WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN
TO THE 60S FOR SATURDAY AND INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE NUDGES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND THERE IS GOOD WARM ADVECTION.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONLY BE A LITTLE COOLER FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD LIES WITHIN THE FIRST
12 HOURS. ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
AREA...AND SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR AT
LEAST A LITTLE WHILE LONGER...BUT BETWEEN THAT ACTIVITY PUSHING
NORTH AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST...EXPECT AT
SOME POINT THIS MORNING THERE TO BE SOME AFFECT ON THE TERMINAL
AREAS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...AND KEPT A VCTS MENTION
GOING...WITH JUST A TEMPO MENTION OF -SHRA. WILL SEE HOW THINGS
EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. ALSO
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUED THAT MENTION.
CONDITIONS DO LOOK TO IMPROVE NEAR/AFTER MIDDAY...WHEN THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THINGS EAST OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

SITUATION MARGINAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA.
LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL MEET CRITERIA BUT RH VALUES WILL BE CLOSE.
PART OF THE DIFFICULTY LIKES WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WITH BIG
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS 24 HOURS OUT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND HOPE PICTURE BECOMES A LITTLE MORE CLEAR
TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ082.

KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ005-017-018.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...EWALD
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADP
FIRE WEATHER...EWALD


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