Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 081734

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1134 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 228 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Aloft: 00Z 500 mb analysis depicted a broad trof over the CONUS
with its axis from WI-IA-KS. WNW flow will prevail thru dawn
tomorrow with heights rising about 120 m. There is a weak trof
moving into Nrn CA at this time. It will cont E with its leading
edge reaching the Neb Panhandle/CO by daybreak Thu.

Surface: Strong arctic high pres was nosing down into the region
from Wrn Canada. Its Srn ridge axis will drift E thru the fcst
area tonight...with light return flow developing after midnight.

Today: Sunny and cold. High temps will be about 20F below normal.
Normal highs range from upr 30s over S-cntrl Neb to mid 40s over
N-cntrl KS. Used consensus of all guidance for highs which
offered 19F at Ord to 21F in the Tri-Cities and low-mid 20s over
N-cntrl KS.

Unfortunately...winds will be highest when temps are coldest
today (this morning). Wind chills will be -8 to -15F thru 11 am.
Gusts of 20-25 kts are likely from Grand Island N and E but will
diminish this afternoon.

Tonight: Clear to start. Multi-layered clouds begin to invade
from the W by midnight as the Wrn trof approaches.

Tough to know how cold to go. Winds will become calm or light/
variable as the ridge axis moves thru. Given no snow on the ground
and increasing clouds...played it conservative and kept temps all
slightly above zero...basically continuity with the prvs fcst.
MET/MAV MOS both take Ord down to -2 and -3F respectively. So it
could end up a little colder N and W of the Tri-Cities. Have low
temp occurring at 3 am with a modest rise toward dawn.

Used regional NBM for low temps.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Overall the extended periods will continue to feature cold
weather with temperatures below normal for this time of year, with
Saturday looking like the warmest day with most areas in the 30s.
There are also a few chances for snow and/or flurries in a
progressive pattern.

Friday will be dry and cold, still under the influence of the
arctic airmass. The surface ridge axis will slide east of the
Missouri River through the day but we don`t see the arctic air
dislodge until Friday night/early Saturday.

Saturday, temperatures recover in the moderating airmass. Models
have trended farther north with precip chances in lift in
favorable jet position and warm air advection/isentropic lift
(295K surface). Better chances for precip favors northern
Nebraska, however did include flurries for our northern counties
into the first part of the day.

The forecast Sunday turns more interesting as this is where our
highest precipitation/snow chances exist. The GFS is the most
robust in generating snow across our region, primarily for South
Central Nebraska. A progressive shortwave trough is progged to
cross the plain with decent isentropic lift indicated with this
system, and again lift is enhanced with the upper jet streaks. The
ECMWF favors northern half of Nebraska with snow track, while the
SREF is actually similar to the GFS. This system will be something
to keep an eye on for weekend travelers as there is the potential
for some light snow accumulations with this fast moving system.

Heading into next week, temperatures look to warm a few degrees
from Sunday ahead of the next approaching cold frontal boundary,
but will need to monitor trends if we have snow cover. Another
arctic cold front crosses the plains Monday night ushering frigid
air aboard gusty north winds. Snow chances return along a
frontogenetic band with this system and the cold air settles in
for a couple of days.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Surface high pressure will
slide eastward over the area through the forecast period. Breezy
northwesterly winds will become light and variable before becoming
southeasterly Friday morning. Skies will be clear throughout most
of the day, but high clouds will move in tonight with mid-level
clouds moving in towards morning.




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