Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 230528

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1228 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Tonight moisture transport will increase from the south allowing
the development of drizzle and light rain showers. Feel the best
chance for precipitation will be after midnight, spreading
northward towards morning. Cannot rule out scattered light precip
during the day tomorrow, but better chances will be present
Thursday night into Friday.

With the warm moist flux, temperatures are expected to be warmer
tomorrow...but with low stratus around and some light precip
possible in the east think temperatures could struggle some and
did decrease them slightly towards eastern Nebraska.

Thunderstorms may be possible during the late afternoon and
evening Thursday, but feel the best chances will be west of the
forecast area before the frontal passage. By Friday morning the
front will be on its way southeast across the area and
precipitation along and behind the front look to be the best
chances for meaningful precip for this storm system. Thunderstorms
may be possible ahead of the system, but do think they will
largely be fairly benign. The dry slot looks to stay off to the
south, so the precipitation potential is relatively high at least
for some accumulation.

As the front moves through Friday, temperatures will cool
significantly behind it. There are some discrepancies among the
guidance as to how cool it will get behind the
currently keeping it above freezing for the most part. That being
said, a brief mix in of snow is possible on the back side.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

The remainder of the forecast stays active, with multiple chances
for precipitation. Another upper disturbance will move through
Sunday night and could bring precip to mainly Kansas, but some
areas of south central Nebraska could be impacted. High pressure
will build in behind the wave on Sunday night/Monday morning, but
the next system will approach for Tuesday and Wednesday. There are
discrepancies among the guidance with this later system, so
confidence is not overly high on the details for Tuesday and
Wednesday`s precip potential.

High temperatures through the weekend and early next week will
fluctuate between the 50s and 60s, which is close to normal or
slightly above for late March.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Deteriorating conditions are forecast early this morning, as lower
level moisture increasing as southerly flow continues. Kept the
pessimistic ceilings in the forecast, dropping to LIFR criteria
around sunrise, with the potential for -dz/VCSH as well. Overall
confidence is not high. There is uncertainty with how quickly
ceilings will lift through the day, currently have VFR conditions
returning early this afternoon. Another chance for precip will
work in toward the end of the TAF period. Not going to see any
notable changes in the winds, remaining southerly and gusty.




SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
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