Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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624
FXUS63 KGID 171742
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1142 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 530 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Low clouds are gone but there is a stubborn band of cirrostratus
around 20K per UEX 88D wind profile. Updated sky fcst for today
using the 10Z RAP to better acct for this.

After further evaluation for the 12Z TAFs...believe there is
potential for fog tonight. Not entirely sure if it materializes
...but with all the melting today that is sure to moisten the BL.
And temps will radiate past the late afternoon cross-over temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 229 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Aloft: The low that brought the frzg rain to the region Sun-Mon
was heading into the GtLakes region. The flow remained split over
the CONUS with a contorted trof extending from the Nrn Plns SW
thru the Desert SW to Baja CA. A shortwave trof was over the Nrn
Plns and its tail end will cross the fcst area this morning. This
afternoon an upr low will form over AZ/NM and it will begin
lifting NE tonight.

Surface: High pres was over the TX panhandle but encompassed the
Cntrl/Srn Plns. This high will slip E of the region by 00Z and
into the mid MS Vly. Return flow will develop here this afternoon.

Despite all the activity aloft...the wx will be quiet and dry
thru tonight.

Today: Recovery. Overall sunny. There will be some clouds in the
Srn sky thru early afternoon...espcly over N-cntrl KS. Sun will
help melting...especially unshadowed roads and sidewalks which are
good absorbers of isolation. Be alert for portions of roads and
sidewalks that remain in shadow all day due to low Jan sun angle.
They won`t be as quick to melt.

Also watch out for falling ice and icicles.

High temps are low confidence as it`s difficult to acct for how
much insolation goes to melting ice. Kept temps right in the
middle of the guidance spread...not as cold as consensus of 2m
temps (30-40F) but not as mild as consensus of MOS (37-44F). In
past ice events...temps the day after are always colder than
expected. So if anything...temps may be a little too warm today.

Tonight: Clear. Near seasonable cold. Used 4km NAM nest for lows
which has been one of the top 3 best low temp fcsts for the last
30 days. It has a nice depiction of the colder rvr valley`s N of
I-80 and the Platte Rvr cold in Dawson County.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 229 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Overall, milder weather is forecast through the outer periods
with some hit or miss chances for precipitation.

An upper low pressure system in the southern plains will be
lifting north into Kansas on Wednesday with little in the way of
impact during the day with moisture lacking. The airmass will be
noticeably warmer with highs in the 40s which should continue to
erode residual ice. By Wednesday night the center of the upper low
is progged to reach the Kansas City area and with in increase in
low level moisture, models suggest the development of stratus
along our southeast zones along with an outside chance for drizzle
or light rain. The NAM is the most aggressive with the drizzle
potential and have held off mention of this until Thursday night
when low level moisture profiles look a little better. The area of
low clouds and drizzle looks to expand west and affect the eastern
two thirds of our cwa Thursday night into Friday. Fortunately the
temperature profile looks to remain above freezing for
precipitation type to remain liquid but overnight lows come close
to freezing and will need to keep an eye on this.

This upper low pressure system lifts out on Friday ahead of
another trough moving out of the Rockies which is forecast to
close off in western Kansas and lift across Nebraska Saturday.
Although will likely see a lull in between systems, precipitation
chances remain in the forecast Friday through Saturday morning.
Again there is not a lot of cold air to work with so precipitation
type again favors liquid, but ultimately went with a rain/snow mix
as temperatures cool Friday night.

Sunday will be in between system with the Nebraska upper low
tracking into the Dakotas and another closed low tracking across
the southern plains states. Temperatures Sunday trend a few
degrees cooler as cold air advects south behind the northern
plains trough. Dry weather is forecast behind the departing upper
systems Sunday then shortwave ridging followed by southwest flow
aloft develops across our region heading into Monday. The weather
remains dry and mild Monday with 40s in the forecast, then
extended models suggest the potential for a winter storm system
next Tuesday/Wednesday but this is still well in the outer periods
to key in on just yet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

VFR Conditions are expected throughout the TAF valid period. Ice
will really begin to melt today with full sunshine and
temperatures that are expected to climb above freezing this
afternoon. The wind will be light and generally from the west
today, but shifting more out of the southwest later tonight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 229 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

In case you missed it HSI and GRI set daily precip records
yesterday.

GRI 0.58 (old record: 0.30 in 1932)
HSI 0.53 (old record: 0.35 in 1980)

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelley
SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Wesely
CLIMATE...Kelley



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