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000
FXUS63 KGID 182025
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
325 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

...BE ALERT FOR SEVERE TSTMS AS WE HEAD THRU THE EVNG...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE FIRST TORNADO WATCH OF THE DAY WAS COORDINATED WITH SPC AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ITS POSTED.

RADAR IS NOW IN VCP 212.

ALOFT: BROAD SYNOPTIC LIFT WAS OCCURRING OVER THE PLAINS...BETWEEN
COUPLED JET CORES OVER THE DESERT SW AND THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS
AS A TROF WAS ADVANCING E. THE UPR-LVL DIVERGENCE WILL INTENSIFY AS
THE TROF TILTS NEGATIVE TNGT. A CUT-OFF LOW WILL BEGIN FORMING SUN
OVER SD.

SFC: THE POLAR FRONT EXTENDED FROM SD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TO CO-
UT-NV. A LEE LOW WAS ALONG THE CO-KS BORDER WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING S. AS THE UPR TROF MOVES IN...THE COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE SE INTO NEB TOMORROW AND MERGE WITH THE DRYLINE.

NOW THRU SUNSET: A SHRTWV TROF WAS ADVANCING N THRU THE FCST AREA
AT 20Z AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS. CLEARING WAS
RAPID IN ITS WAKE /CURRENTLY ALONG THE KS-NEB BORDER AND RACING
N/. TSTMS WERE FORMING ALONG THE DRYLINE...OVER ERN CO/WRN KS
ATTM. THESE STORMS WILL RACE NE AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL
RESULT IN EVENTUAL MERGING.

TNGT: EXPECT AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE TO RACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
BEFORE CELLS MERGE INTO A LINE...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL PRODUCE
VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. THE LINE WILL
SIGNAL A TRANSITION TO A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. BUT DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY STILL THREATENS LARGE HAIL.

HODOGRAPHS WILL ENLARGE AS LLJ STRENGTHENS THIS EVNG. TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE 6PM-9PM AND WILL LAST AS LONG AS CELLS
REMAIN DISCRETE.

SKYWARN: PLEASE RELAY ALL REPORTS OF SVR WX TO THE NWS. WE WILL
ALSO BE MONITORING MESONET SITES/FACEBOOK/TWITTER/HAM RADIO.

EXTRA STAFFING IS PLANNED FOR THIS EVNG.

PLEASE FOLLOW THE LATEST UPDATES FROM THE SPC AND ALL STATEMENTS/
WATCHES/WARNINGS FROM THE NWS HASTINGS.

FOG: WHERE RAIN FALLS TNGT THERE/S POTENTIAL. THE WIND IS THE
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY. THE RICHARDSON NUMBER SUGGESTS STRATUS MAY
EVOLVE INSTEAD.

SUN: A CLOUDY MRNG PROBABLE. THEN DECREASING CLOUDS WITH SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS REDEVELOPING. SPC HAS SLGT RISK ALONG AND E OF HWY
183.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE CINH DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LVL COOLING.
0-5 KM SHEAR WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS...AND
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LOW-LVL WINDS WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER. SO THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE MARGINAL 1" HAIL
AND 60 MPH GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THIS SECTION UPDATES BETWEEN 330PM-4PM.

BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OVER THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...ONE LOW IS
FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE CWA...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST FOR EASTERN PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA.
A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR CWA INTO THE
DAKOTAS...BASICALLY A LINE CONNECTING THE TWO LOWS. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH BOTH NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS...WHICH WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN CAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG...ESPECIALLY
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARDS
TO 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...INDICATING VALUES OF 50 KTS BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL SUGGEST VALUES ROUGHLY BETWEEN
25 AND 35 KTS. AT 12Z...MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING RELATIVELY
DECENT 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES...MAINLY OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...BUT
QUICKLY DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH ALL THIS BEING
SAID...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER AROUND INTO SUNDAY ACROSS OUR
CWA...ESPECIALLY OUR COUNTIES EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MET SEVERE CRITERIA ON SUNDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH LATER IN THE DAY.

BEGINNING MONDAY...AND ESSENTIALLY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...THERE IS A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH ONLY THE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE LACK
OF INSTABILITY AND LIFT INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL DOWN A LITTLE OVER THE WORKWEEK. IT APPEARS TUESDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY NEXT WEEK WITH MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BELOW NORMAL.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.
NORMAL HIGHS ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S...WHILE LOWS
ARE USUALLY AROUND 50 DEGREES THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THIS AFTN: MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MVFR
CIGS COULD TEMPO RETURN TO THE TERMINAL. SE WINDS CONT AROUND 15
KTS AND WILL BEGIN GUSTING 20-25 KTS.

TNGT: A PERIOD OF IFR TSTMS APPEARS LIKELY 02Z-04Z. THEN CLEARING
IFR/LIFR STRATUS CIGS PROBABLE AFTER 06Z. FOG IS LESS CERTAIN DUE
TO SFC WINDS. IF WIND IS LIGHTER THAN FCST AND RAIN DOES FALL THIS
EVNG...THEN 1/4SM FG VV001 WILL BE LIKELY.

SUN THRU 18Z: IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG? GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT BY
16Z.

CIG CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
VSBY CONFIDENCE: HIGH UNTIL 08Z THEN AVERAGE
WIND CONFIDENCE: HIGH EXCEPT IN ANY TSTMS
WX CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...HALBLAUB