Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 261731
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1231 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CHANCE OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT
NOON TODAY.

STARTING WITH THE BIG PICTURE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR
PLOTS SHOW ONE CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS...WITH
RIDING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND THEN ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DECENT HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH A 500 MB 12 HOUR CHANGE OF 40 METERS OVER THE
EASTERN ROCKIES AND 80 TO 100 METERS ACROSS IDAHO. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE AT 1 AM LOCAL TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST AND
WAS OVER SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IOWA. LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WERE POOLING ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER EASTERN
KANSAS. CLOSER TO HOME DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA TO THE MID 50S IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN. WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING
EAST AND IT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO WESTERN
COLORADO BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN THEN IS WILL WE SEE ANY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE AND WILL IT PERSIST FOR PART OF THE DAY? AS OF
1 AM LOCAL TIME...THE WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN EASTERLY AND A BIT
STRONGER THAN ONE WOULD WANT TO SEE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN INDICATING THE WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE
COLORADO SURFACE LOW ADVANCES CLOSER TO OUR CWA. THIS WOULD HELP
ADVECT THE HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE FROM KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THE QUESTION THEN IS IF THIS OCCURS EARLY ENOUGH BEFORE
SUNRISE TO AID IN LOW CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...OR IS IT AFTER THE
SUN HAS RISEN ENOUGH THAT WE HEAT UP IN THE LOWER LEVELS THUS
LIMITING FOG/LOW CLOUDS.  WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR BOTH
MODEL TRENDS AND REALITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DECIDING. IN
ADDITION TO CAUSING EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY ISSUES...AND LINGERING
CLOUDS/FOG WOULD ALSO AFFECT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY.

AFTER WATCHING THINGS PLAY OUT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...DECIDED TO
BACK OFF ON FOG WORDING.  WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN FOR
NOW BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE LOWER VISIBILITIES.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY MAJOR FOG ISSUES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SINCE THE WINDS
SHOULD SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES
THROUGH...THUS SHUNTING THE HIGHER MOISTURE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MT/CAN BORDER
SLIDES EAST...AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE ERN CONUS. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED SOUTH BY THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THOUGH THE
PLAINS...BUT OUTSIDE OF A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW NOT A WHOLE HECK OF A LOT GOING ON ACROSS THE CWA.
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS PRIMARILY THE NWRN HALF OF
THE CWA...BUT SOME MODELS SUGGEST WE WOULD BE LUCKY TO SEE
SPRINKLES. WILL SEE HOW UPCOMING RUNS TREND.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES EAST OF THE CWA...THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD THROUGH SATURDAY CONTINUES TO BE A DRY ONE. MORE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUE/WED AS THE TROUGH AXIS
KEEPS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
REGIONS...AMPLIFYING AS WE GET INTO THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE
PERIOD...WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE WEST COAST.
MODELS IN SHOWING NO NOTABLE SYSTEMS BRINGING PRECIP TO THE
CWA...BUT DO SHOW DISTURBANCES SLIDING TO THE N/NE OF THE
CWA...BRINGING REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...COLD AIR ADVECTION ON MONDAY IS FORECAST
TO RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NW TO NEAR 70
IN THE SE...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NW WINDS THANKS TO A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASED MIXING POTENTIAL. SPEEDS
OF 2O TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THAT COOLER
AIRMASS STICKS AROUND AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA. TUES IS A TOUCH COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH WED/THURS IN THE 60S.
FOR FRI/SAT...ANOTHER COOL FRONT PASSING THROUGH LOOKS TO DROP TEMPS
BACK A BIT AGAIN...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 50S CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT WITH
ONLY A LITTLE CIRRUS AROUND. MONDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EWALD
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...JCB



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