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000
FXUS63 KGID 081754
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1154 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

MAIN CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCLUDE THE REST OF OUR
KS COUNTIES AND FURNAS COUNTY OF SC NEB IN THE WINTER WEATHER
ADV AND TO INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS IN THOSE
COUNTIES MENTIONED WERE NEAR/HAD REACHED CRITERIA...AND WITH
ANOTHER BATCH OF SNOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS...WILL LIKELY PICK UP A BIT MORE. KEPT THE
END TIME THE SAME. AT THIS POINT LEFT COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST
OUT OF THE ADVISORY...THEY HAD LESS SNOW OVERNIGHT /ESP IN THE FAR
W AND NW/...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THE ACTIVITY
TO THE WEST EVOLVES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EXIT OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH THE SNOW COMING
TO AN END DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE SNOW HAS BEEN LARGELY DUE TO
THE BROAD UPGLIDE/LIFT CLEARLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS AND VISUALIZED
ON ISENTROPIC CHARTS. THE MORE SUBTLE FEATURES HAVE INVOLVED SOME
FAIRLY NARROW BUT HEAVIER SNOW BANDS THAT ARE LIKELY A RESULT OF
ENHANCED LIFT DUE TO FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION (PVA). THE BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE
FOR A WIDE SPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
ENHANCED JET DYNAMICS AND PVA LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE
ADDITIONAL SNOW THAT WAS TACKED ON PRIMARILY SOUTH OF HWY 30 IN
NEBRASKA AND NORTH OF HWY 36 IN KANSAS.

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT THESE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY IN THIS SAME GENERAL AREA
THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING WITH DECREASING BAND INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING AND ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON. SNOW INTENSITY
IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS HAS GENERALLY BEEN UP TO AROUND A 1/2 INCH PER
HOUR...WITH PERHAPS BRIEFLY A LITTLE MORE THAN THAT. THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS PRIOR TO DAWN WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 6
INCHES WITH LOCALLY 7 INCHES IN AN AREA GENERALLY COVERING THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
HARLAN...FRANKLIN...KEARNEY...ADAMS...WEBSTER...CLAY...NUCKOLLS...
YORK...FILMORE...THAYER AND THEN SMITH AND JEWELL COUNTIES IN
KANSAS. ALL OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED COUNTIES ARE UNDER A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. WE WILL TACK ON A LITTLE MORE SNOW AFTER DAWN AND
THESE HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH RANGE
WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD DECREASE FROM AROUND 10 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING TO AROUND 5
MPH BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL AWAY...BUT THE WIND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH.

TONIGHT...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXITED OUR AREA AND WE CAN
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
NOW THAT WE HAVE A FRESH SNOW COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILL VALUES
AROUND -10 TO -15F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

COMPARED TO THE ONGOING SNOW EVENT DESCRIBED ABOVE THE 6-DAY LONG
TERM PERIOD FEATURES VERY QUIET WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES BEING
THE PRIMARY ISSUE...AND ONE THAT HAS LIKELY GOTTEN A BIT TRICKIER
NOW THAT ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA HAS GOTTEN AN
APPRECIABLE BLANKET OF SNOW COVER. AT LEAST FOR NOW...THIS ENTIRE
TIME-FRAME HAS BEEN LEFT PRECIP-FREE...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW
PERIODS THAT ARE POTENTIAL CANDIDATES FOR EVENTUALLY NEEDING THE
INCLUSION OF SOME FLURRIES OR SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW. IN THE
NEARER-TERM...THIS MIGHT INCLUDE NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE FARTHER OUT IN TIME...THIS MIGHT INCLUDE THE FRIDAY-
SATURDAY TIME FRAME...BUT THIS IS FAR FROM A SURE-THING AND FOR
NOW KEEPING THE FORECAST VOID OF PRECIP MENTION LOOKS LIKE THE
MOST PRUDENT ROUTE.

STARTING OFF WITH MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...VARIOUS 00Z/06Z MODELS
SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE
PICTURE ALOFT...AS A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED...POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHILE A TRAILING LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TRACKS ALONG A
PATH FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO WI ON MONDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SOME UPPER JET STREAM ENTRANCE REGION-INDUCED SNOW COULD
GET GOING NEAR AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER...BUT
ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN AT LEAST 100 MILES SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THEN ON MONDAY NIGHT ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERN WAVE SHOULD REMAIN 150+ MILES NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA. LOCALLY...SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR ESPECIALLY
OVER NEB ZONES...WITH KS ZONES MORE LIKELY TO CATCH THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF SOME ENHANCED MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET
STREAM LIFT JUST TO THE SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE...BREEZES MONDAY
MORNING WILL START OUT 5-10 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST...BEFORE
GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY
BY DAYS END IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS.
RIGHT AWAY MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE...MUCH OF THE CWA IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE WIND CHILLS OF
-10 TO IN LIMITED SPOTS NEARLY -20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ALTHOUGH
VALUES SHOULD FALL AT LEAST SLIGHTLY SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...MONDAY SHOULD REALLY BE THE LAST TRULY COLD DAY
OF THIS NOTABLE COLD SNAP...AS ALL BUT MAYBE THE FAR-WESTERN CWA
IS FORECAST TO FALL SHORT OF 20 DEGREES AGAIN...WITH A 15-19 RANGE
ADVERTISED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THAT BEING SAID...IT IS
YET TO BE DETERMINED HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT THE BATTLE BETWEEN
SUNSHINE VERSUS SNOW COVER WILL TURN OUT...SO CONFIDENCE IS A
TOUCH LOWER THAN USUAL HERE. ON MONDAY NIGHT...BREEZES WILL
ACTUALLY PICK UP A BIT AND TURN WESTERLY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...WHICH COULD ULTIMATELY RESULT IN
SOME TRICKY...NON-DIURNAL TEMP RISES. HOWEVER...WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE FOR NOW GIVEN THE SNOW COVER...WITH
MOST PLACES AIMED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 3-6 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL PROMOTE WIND CHILL READINGS AROUND 10 BELOW
ZERO OR SLIGHTLY COLDER...NO PLACES ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO
BREACH -15.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS AN
EXPANSIVE...BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN CONTROL OF MUCH OF THE
CONUS...WHILE A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF CANADA AND ALONG A TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARD IA/WI TUES
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS EARLIER-MENTIONED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR A POSSIBLE
FLURRY/LIGHT SNOW POSSIBILITY AS THIS WAVE GIVES THE CWA A
GLANCING BLOW. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL...TUESDAY STILL LOOKS
FAVORABLE FOR THE WARMEST DAY THAT MOST AREAS HAVE SEEN IN NEARLY
A WEEK AND A HALF...AS STEADY WEST-SOUTHWEST BREEZES ADVECT IN A
MODESTLY WARMER AIRMASS...UNDER WHAT SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUN. AS A
RESULT...HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA AIMED FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
30S...BUT HAVE LEFT AN AREA OF ONLY UPPER 20S IN SOUTHEAST ZONES
WHERE SOME OF THE DEEPEST SNOW COVER WILL RESIDE...AND AGAIN THE
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS IS LOWER THAN USUAL DUE TO THE WHOLE SNOW PACK
ISSUE. THE PASSING WAVE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL USHER ANOTHER DECENT
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...POTENTIALLY ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD
OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THIS COLDER AIR IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE AREA WILL MEAN A COLDER DAY
FOR WEDNESDAY...AND MADE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE TO HIGH
TEMPS...RANGING FROM ONLY UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST TO MID 20S
SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECWMF/GFS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MOST BASIC LARGE-SCALE ELEMENTS.
INITIALLY NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY
AS A PERIOD OF RIDGING/RISING HEIGHTS WORKS EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FLOW BECOMES BIT
MORE QUASI-ZONAL AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ONE OR TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COULD PASS NEAR OR OVER THE CWA DURING THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH...THE
LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MINIMAL FORCING BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...MOST OF
THE MODEL QPF DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME FRAME IS CURRENTLY PROGGED
TO FOCUS NORTH...SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF THE CWA...BUT IT
WILL LIKELY BE A CLOSE CALL AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO
SEE SOME SLIGHT POPS WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURE-WISE...A BIT OF A ROLLER-COASTER
CONTINUES AS THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO FEATURE ANOTHER ROUND OF
WARMING WEST-SOUTHWEST BREEZES...HELPING BOOST HIGHS BACK INTO THE
30S ALL AREAS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STILL HAVE A FAIR DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS
AT LEAST INTO THE 30S BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY WHICH EVEN
HAS SOME LOW 40S SOUTHWEST...THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE ECMWF
SUGGEST THAT A COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE COULD HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT ON ONE OR BOTH OF THESE
DAYS...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS ENDING UP 5+ DEGREES
COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN CONCERN LIES IN THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY SEEING A RELATIVE LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY...BUT ACTIVITY OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE
TERMINAL AREA. DID INSERT SOME LOWER CIGS/VISBYS FOR THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE IMPACT
THIS EVENING. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL SWITCH
TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ049-
     063-064-074>077-082>087.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADO
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADO