Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 190322
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1022 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE IN AND
NEAR THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY IN DAWSON COUNTY. WIND SHOULD
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET FURTHER
DEVELOPS...SO WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. BIG STORY WILL BE
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS
THE WARMER WEATHER TOMORROW ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
REMNANTS FROM ODILE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT AFFECT OUR AREA AS WE WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH TOMORROW. A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY CALM WINDS BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
04Z...AND ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY REASONABLE DURATION OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. NOT GOING TO MENTION ANY FOG WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BASICALLY INCREASE IN RELATION TO THE
LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON
AVIATION AS FAR AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GOES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE TOMORROW AS WELL...WHEN A NOTICEABLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DEEP MIXING AS INDICATED BY THE NAM. WE ARE LOOKING AT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-2O MPH ALL AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. SPEEDS
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO EASE UP AROUND 7 PM TOMORROW EVENING.

WE WILL NOT HAVE A PROBLEM HITTING THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR A HIGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE HAD
IN ABOUT 10 DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TRI-CITES WHICH HAVE NOT HIT
THE MID 80S SINCE SEPTEMBER 9TH. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TRI-CITES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ALOFT: LONGWAVE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY FRI EVENING DUE TO
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
WRN N AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CNTRL N AMERICA MON-
TUE AND THEN TO THE E WED-FRI. THE TROF CURRENTLY OFF CA WILL CLOSE
WITH THE LOW MEANDERING NE WITHIN THE RIDGE. THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS
TROF /CURRENTLY MOVING THRU WA-OR/ WILL MOVE THRU HERE 12AM-12PM
SAT. BY 00Z/TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE LOW OVER WY AND THEN
INTO SD/NEB TUE-WED. THIS IS FURTHER N THAN 24 HRS AGO. BY WED OF
NEXT WEEK THE NE PACIFIC TROF WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE W COAST.
MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SURFACE: BY SUNSET FRI THE COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU
THE WILL BE OVER ND/SD/WY AT 7 PM/FRI. THIS FRONT WILL SAG THRU THE
FCST AREA AND WILL BE JUST S AND E BY 1 PM/SAT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN BEHIND...SLIDING THRU THE NRN PLAINS SUN...THE MIDWEST
MON-TUE...AND THE ERN USA WED-THU.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: SHOULD SEE A COUPLE TSTMS DEVELOP NW-N-NE OF THE FCST
AREA WITH A CHANCE OF THEM SAGGING SE INTO S-CNTRL NEB. VERY LIMITED
QPF AND LOW SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" ALL SUGGEST VERY LIMITED
TSTM COVERAGE.

SAT: A COUPLE TSTMS COULD LINGER S OF HWY 6 WITH THE "BEST" CHANCE
OVER N-CNTRL KS. STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH ACTIVITY OVERALL. THE
FRONT WILL BE THRU BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MEANING THE GREATEST RISK
FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SUN: VERY VERY NICE. GET OUT AND ENJOY IT. SUNNY/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
AND LIGHT WINDS.

MON: THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY THAT COULD MEANDER E INTO THE
FCST AREA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO POPS DURING THE DAY...BUT
CONTINUED WAA/MOISTENING COULD MAINTAIN TSTMS DURING THE DAY OVER
THE PANHANDLE/SANDHILLS.

TUE-WED: SAME SCENARIO. RETURN FLOW/LLJ/SUSTAINED WAA AND RICH
MOISTURE INCREASING. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WEAK
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. SO
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW.

TEMPS LOOK QUITE COOL BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

WIND SHEAR IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS ARE
GIVING US SOME LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...BUT VARYING DEGREES. I OPTED
FOR MORE OPTIMISTIC SCATTERED.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



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