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000
FXUS63 KGID 051125
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
525 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY TODAY AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CURRENT RADAR HAS SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN A VARIETY OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES...LIGHT SNOW...SPRINKLES AND UNKNOWN
PRECIPITATION. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
HAS MOVED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
IS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.

MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID DAY TODAY. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION
RETURNS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SPLIT THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
AND GIVE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
OTHERS BRING THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE KANSAS. WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN THE NEXT
QUESTION BECOMES WHAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE SOME SLEET FOR A SHORT TIME AS THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS...BUT SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES PUSH INTO THE AREA. BY SUNRISE THE COLDER AIR WILL BE
IN PLACE AND EXPECT THERE TO BE ENOUGH COLD AIR THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL HAVE MOVED OUT
OF THE AREA AND THE SNOW SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THE
CLOUDS START TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
THE WINDS INCREASE...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE WILL BE
SOME WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

THE OUTER PERIODS WILL START WITH A WARM DAY ON THURSDAY...THE
WARMEST OF THE WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND
10C...ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE MIXING QUITE TO
THIS LEVEL.  HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO ECMWF FOR TEMPS WITH READINGS
IN THE 50S...AND IF MIXING ENDS UP BEING DEEPER...60S WILL BE
POSSIBLE.  THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA IN BETWEEN A SFC HIGH IN SE KS AND A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTN.

A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY AS A ENERGY TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  LOW CLOUDS
AND COLDER AIR FILTER SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY AND MODELS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY IN MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.  PCPN TYPE DURING THE DAY
IS STILL LOOKING LIKE A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE COLD AIR
DEEPENS FRIDAY NIGHT. PCPN CHCS ACROSS SC NEB/NC KS SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WITH BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PCPN FALLING AS SNOW IN THE COLDER
AIRMASS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY WITH SATURDAY THE TRANSITION DAY BEFORE WARMER
AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY.

THE WARMUP ARRIVES SUNDAY/MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ONTO THE
PLAINS...THEN DEAMPLIFIES MONDAY AS ENERGY TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER.  MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH BACK TO BACK
DAYS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S.  AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO EMERGE ONTO THE
PLAINS AND PCPN CHCS RETURN TO OUR WESTERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

OBSERVATIONS TO THE NORTH AND WEST HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AND WILL
MOVE INTO THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE GIVING AWAY
TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS WILL START
TO CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...JCB