Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 302326
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
626 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...TO SHIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...VARIABLY CLOUD SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL STRATUS IS VISIBLE
UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL AREA IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITH THIS
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS LOWS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
SAW SOME CLEARING THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...FOCUS WILL BE ON THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS LOW
AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE LOW
THURSDAY...BEGINNING DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND AS EVIDENT
IN BOTH THE RAP/NAM. WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND
WEAK WEAK SHEAR VALUES...DO NOT FORESEE ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...BUT CAN JUSTIFY THE
SMALL MENTION FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE.

TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT ANOTHER NICE DAY ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT ONLY WARMING 1-2C...RESULTING
IN LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...SHOWING WELL AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING OVER ONTARIO/TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND RIDGING
EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. DURING THE START OF THE LONG
TERM...THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
/MAINLY WITH PRECIP/ IS NOT THE HIGHEST.  THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION REMAINS IN
PLACE...WITH THERE BEING A CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE FIRST WAVE. INHERITED SOME LOW POPS LATE
IN THE DAY FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH...AND THOUGH
MODELS DONT ALL AGREE WITH OUR CWA BEING IMPACTED /SOME KEEP IT NE
OF THE CWA/...WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A DRY SOLUTION
BEFORE REMOVING THOSE POPS...AND HAVE THEM CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING.

KEPT THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY PERIODS DRY...MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF
AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD...SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
AMPLIFYING/BEING PUSHED A BIT EAST AS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE STARTS
TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST. AS WE GET INTO TUE/WED...THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE E/NE...DEAMPLIFYING THE MAIN RIDGE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO AFFECT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD /MAINLY TUES NIGHT AND WED/...BUT THIS EVENT IS
STILL A WEEK AWAY...AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE CHANGES IN THE MODELS
WITH TIMING/LOCATION.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MID 80S TO LOWER 90S GENERALLY FOR HIGHS
/POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPS WED BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE/...WITH 60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE CHANCES ARE SMALL ENOUGH
TO LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW. A WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM WILL KEEP WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...JCB



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