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000
FXUS63 KGID 211126
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
626 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Satellite and observations show mostly clear skies across the area
this morning. Surface analysis has a surface high nosing into the
area and winds are light.

The surface high is expected to move to the east today. The cold
front that moved through last night, then stalled in central Kansas
yesterday, is expected to move north as a warm front and weaken this
morning. As a surface low develops on the high plains, the pressure
gradient will tighten and south winds will increase today. The
pressure gradient continues into tonight as well and expect winds to
remain fairly breezy through the night. The south winds and sunshine
today will allow temperatures to warm into the 90s for most of the
area. With the wind holding through the night, temperatures tonight
will remain warm as well.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Friday will be another warm and windy day. The surface low and cold
front continue to linger on the high plains and south winds will
continue to be breezy from the south. The difference is that the
south winds will have gradually brought in more moist air into the
area and there will be less fire weather threat.

Starting late Friday afternoon and into Friday night, the cold front
continues to be to the northwest of the area, but the upper level
trough in the Rockies starts to send out some waves into the plains.
There could be a few thunderstorms mainly across the west and
northwest Friday night. There is some CAPE and there could be a
strong to severe storm, mainly during the evening hours, in the
western part of the forecast area.

Saturday through Tuesday will be the period with precipitation. The
upper trough strengthens into a low as it moves slowly to the east.
There are several waves that move through the forecast area through
the period. The surface low and cold front are very slow to move.
The front stays to the north of the area through Saturday night
before slowly moving through the area Sunday through Monday. Do not
expect there to be constant showers and thunderstorms through the
period, but there will be some around. The best chances for
precipitation will be Saturday night through Monday. There is some
instability through the period, but the best chances for
thunderstorms will be during the afternoon and evening periods, with
lesser chances overnight into mornings. Finally on Tuesday the upper
low moves off to the northeast enough that the precipitation should
be moving out of the forecast area. Temperatures through the period
will be on a general cooling trend.

Tuesday night into Wednesday a surface high settles into the area
and skies should clear out and temperatures should warm back up a
bit.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Friday)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

VFR conditions are forecast through the period. The main impact
to the TAF sites will be this evening and overnight when a strong
LLJ sets up over the region ahead of a approaching cold front. The
models are showing a LLJ near 55kts at its peak from 9z to 14z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

There will be a surface low developing on the high plains today. The
pressure gradient will tighten and winds will increase from the
south. The south winds and sunshine will allow for temperatures to
rise into the 90s for most of the area. Dew points are already in
the 40s in the western part of the forecast area. With mixing and
warm temperatures there will be low relative humidities this
afternoon. Will keep the red flag warning as is at this time, but
will have to see if the mixing gets any further to the east.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for NEZ082.

KS...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ005-017.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Beda
FIRE WEATHER...JCB