Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 230618
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
118 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA.

THREE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES DOMINATE THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING A PRONOUNCED POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...BROAD RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND A VORTEX OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO. THIS IS A SPLIT FLOW SCENARIO. WE ARE CURRENTLY SITUATED
IN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...IN BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE CANADIAN VORTEX AND THE SOUTHERN
STREAM JET STRETCHING FROM THE BASE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH
NEAR THE BAJA...HEADING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN THE BROAD
RIDGE.

THE RIDGING SHOULD MOSTLY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...LIKELY KEEPING US FROM RECEIVING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION...BUT I DO THINK THAT SOME SPRINKLES MAY BE
WARRANTED FOR THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS LATE TONIGHT...AT LEAST IN
OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO RAMP UP AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A PRETTY SOLID DECK OF STRATUS IN OUR
SOUTH...MAINLY IN THE 750-800 MB LEVEL TONIGHT. I THINK THIS WILL
REMAIN STRATUS FOR TONIGHT...AND NOT THINKING SPRINKLES FOR LATE
TONIGHT AS THE AIR BELOW THIS LAYER IS STRIKINGLY DRY AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT DOES NOT REALLY GET GOING AS WELL UNTIL DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREADS NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND THE DRY LAYER BELOW THE STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO
MOISTEN AND WILL PROBABLY ALLOW SOME SPRINKLES TO MAKE IT TO THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. BUMPED DOWN HIGHS
FOR THURSDAY AS I EXPECT THE STRATUS TO WORK IN QUICKLY IN THE
MORNING...AFTER A FAIRLY COOL LOW TEMPERATURE. I RAISED WIND GUSTS
A BIT LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY USING CONSRAW AS A GUIDE. WENT
CLOSER TO HIRESWARWEAST FOR HIGHS THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS SOME LIMITED CAPE ACROSS THE AREA
ALTHOUGH THE BEST IS IN THE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH
THE NAM HAVING MORE SPOTTY PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS. NEITHER OF
THEM HAVE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SO LOWERED POPS JUST A
LITTLE...EXPECTING THE PRECIPITATION TO BE MORE SPOTTY. THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DURING
MUCH OF THE DAY EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AROUND THE AREA. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING A SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN KANSAS AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS
NEBRASKA WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. THE MUCAPE APPROACHES
2000 J/KG DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...BUT
DECREASES FAIRLY QUICKLY LATER IN THE EVENING. EXPECT THERE COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE AREA.
THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW
MOVES TO THE EAST...BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
TO THE EAST FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO
THE EAST.

MODELS START TO HAVE A FEW MORE DIFFERENCES SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS BRINGS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO BRING IT INTO THE
PLAINS AND BRINGS IT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS. STAYED
CLOSER TO THE GFS AND KEPT SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THU NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

OVERNIGHT: VFR WITH JUST A FEW PATCHES OF MID-LVL ALTOCU OR
SHREADS OF CIRROSTRATUS OFF IN THE DISTANCE. LIGHT SE WINDS. RADAR
WIND PROFILE INDICATES AROUND 40 KTS AT 400 FT WITH FAIRLY SMALL
ERROR. AM NOT SURE ABOUT THIS GIVEN THAT HIGH PRES IS SO CLOSE...
BUT HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ON LLWS.

THU: INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS MOVING IN AND
GRADUALLY LOWERING. SE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
HIGH

THU EVE: CIGS DETERIORATE TO MVFR 00Z-03Z. POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
DECAY TO IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS IN FOG EXISTS AFTER 06Z. ONE OF
THE MORE RELIABLE GUIDANCE SOURCES /GFS LAMP/ DOES NOT INDICATE
IFR YET. SO HELD OFF ON GOING MORE PESSIMISTIC. SE WINDS 10-15
KTS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS UP TO 25 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



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