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000
FXUS63 KGID 222139
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
339 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A SHARP WSW/ENE ORIENTATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DRAPED THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WITH A LACK OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE DAY STARTED OUT WITH ROUGHLY THE ERN
HALF OF THE CWA AFFECTED BY AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS...BUT BY
NOON HAD SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...AND SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR
SINCE. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SRN IA INTO ERN
CO...WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO WRN NEB FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THIS IS KEEPING WINDS WESTERLY BUT
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...MOST LOCATIONS ARE ARND 10
MPH...OCCASIONALLY THERE HAS BEEN A GUST CLOSER TO 20 MPH. NO BIG
SURPRISES WITH TEMPS...3 PM OBS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH OF THE CWA
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH SHARP N/NWRLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN
ITS WAKE. THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REMAINS DRY...AS
WELL AS INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS SHOWING A MUCH WEAKER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDING PRIMARILY TO THE E/NE OF THE
CWA...AND WHILE THE GFS TRIES TO BRING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY...OTHERS KEEP THE CWA PRECIP FREE. MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...BUT THE LOWER LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA...AND MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING...SHOWING THE MAIN PUSH COMING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MODERATING TEMPS ALOFT OF A FEW DEGREES ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO THE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A BUMP
UP IN TEMPERATURES...EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 50S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A FEW MAINLY
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE WAVES MOVE THROUGH...BUT
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT TIMES WITH VARIABLE
TEMPERATURES.

THE FIRST UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MAYBE A LITTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH. A
STRONGER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT THIS IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA. SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE BUT
THAT IS A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE WITH DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE.

BY SUNDAY THERE IS SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND WESTERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES WARM UP AGAIN. THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS
DRIFTS TO THE EAST AND WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM YET ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS TODAY INTO THE EVENING...BUT MODELS SUGGEST
INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...THE TERMINAL AREAS SIT IN
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY WESTERLY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. IN THE FINAL FEW HOURS...A SFC TROUGH AXIS
SWINGING THROUGH LOOKS TO BRING A MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WINDS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADP