671
FXUS63 KGID 290204
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
904 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...Short Term and Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is at least a small threat of severe storms tonight,
  especially northwest of the Tri-Cities area, but confidence in
  storms actually occurring is low (15% to around 30%).

- Heat index values Sunday afternoon are forecast to to top out
  as high as 100-104 degrees in southern counties ahead of a
  weak cold front...mainly southeast of a Geneva-Red Cloud-
  Phillipsburg KS line.

- Storms (some possibly severe) are expected along a cold front
  Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Post frontal storms are
  possible (15% to 60% chance) Sunday night.

- Monday will be the coolest day of the forecast with highs in
  the 80s areawide.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

-- Various comments on latest thunderstorm forecast trends
 through these next 24-36 hours:

Recently updated/refreshed our Hazardous Weather Outlook
(HWOGID), mainly to ATTEMPT to add some detail primarily to the
admittedly "murky" and fairly uncertain thunderstorm potential
late tonight and Sunday daytime-night. Admittedly, this
forecaster is not not overly-comfortable with "finer details" of
how all this plays out, as high-res models continue to show
quite a bit of run-to-run variability regarding EXACT
timing/placement/likelihood of potential activity.

- For OVERNIGHT:
Leaning on the latest 00Z HRRR as much as anything, while
confidence is diminishing that the spotty activity currently
over western NE will make it into our area (due to warm air
aloft/increasing capping), concern is increasing (at least
slightly) that a "sneaky" line/complex of storms that would
develop near the NE/SD border could make a southeastward-dive
toward/into mainly our far northern/eastern counties (mainly
north/east of Tri Cities) very late tonight into Sunday AM
(perhaps 3-7 AM time frame?). This is a low probability scenario
(hence why official forecast chances/PoPs are mainly no higher
than 30-40%)...BUT it`s plausible that IF a storm complex
develops enough of an outflow/cold pool "push" to our north
closer to the SD/NE border that it could overcome capping aloft
and fairly week deep-layer shear to perhaps infiltrate our
northern/eastern counties and perhaps support mainly a 50-60+
MPH wind threat (something to keep an eye on).

- For SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT:
Wow, things get even "murkier" here. Right away in the morning
post-sunrise, the western fringes of the aforementioned/POSSIBLE
overnight storms could still be affecting mainly our far eastern
counties.

Then, what happens/doesn`t happen during the afternoon-evening-
overnight hours gets uncomfortably unclear (hence why we are
carrying broad coverage of mainly 50 percent-or-less PoPs).
While previous HRRR runs depicted concerningly high CAPE/instability
perhaps as high as 3000-5000 K/kg developing during the
afternoon-early evening, the latest 00Z run has backed off a
bit (possibly due to stabilizing effects of morning storms?).
Meanwhile, deep-layer shear never looked to be overly-strong,
BUT does climb as high as 30-40KT especially north of (behind
the southward sagging surface front). The bottom line is that
almost anywhere in our CWA will be "fair game" for at least
spotty/potentially severe storms almost anytime especially mid-
afternoon into the late night, BUT latest HRRR suggests an
almost entirely storm-free afternoon-early evening, with our
MAIN potential for convection not arriving until mainly AFTER
midnight and primarily impacting our southern/Kansas counties.

IN CLOSING: There are a LOT of question marks regarding
convective details/severe storm potential (especially Sunday
afternoon- night), and hopefully our next few shifts can start
honing in on a somewhat-higher-confidence picture.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Today and tonight...

Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central
Kansas are out of the south to southeast. Sunny to mostly sunny
skies are across the area with a surface trough across the western
part of Nebraska and Kansas. High temperatures today are expected to
be in the lower to upper 90s with heat index values in the mid 90s
to around 102 degrees. Winds will weaken tonight with low
temperatures in the low/mid 60s to low 70s. An upper trough will be
over the northern Plains tonight with a cold front beginning to move
into Nebraska. Showers and storms are expected to develop along this
front this evening. The path and evolution of these storms is
uncertain. One hi-res model shows the storms developing along the
front and moving into northwestern portions of the forecast area
around midnight. Other models show the storms either going around or
weakening significantly before they reach the forecast area. If
storms reach the area, they will have the potential to become severe
due to high CAPE and mid-level lapse rates. The hindering factor in
storm potential will be wind shear which will likely only get up to
around 20 to 25 knots at most and will decrease through the night.
The main threats with these storms will be wind gusts up to 60 mph
and hail up to quarter size.

Sunday and Sunday night...

An upper trough will extend from Canada to Nebraska on Sunday with a
cold front moving into south central and central Nebraska and north
central Kansas. Showers and storms are expected to develop along
this front during the late afternoon and evening hours. Models are
generally showing storms developing across north central Kansas and
possibly extending into portions of south central Nebraska. There
may also be post frontal storm development across portions of south
central Nebraska Sunday night. High CAPE and mid-level lapse rates
will again be present but wind shear will be marginal with values up
to around 30 knots. Storms may become severe due to the above
mentioned conditions. The primary threats with these storms will be
large hail and damaging winds. Storm development on Sunday and
Sunday night will in part depend on what occurs today and tonight.
If a storm complex moves through the area tonight, the same areas
are less likely to receive storms Sunday and Sunday night. High
temperatures on Sunday will range from the mid 80s to the mid/upper
90s. Low temperatures Sunday night will range from the upper 50s to
the upper 60s.

Monday through Friday night...

South central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas will be
on the backside of the upper trough on Monday with northerly winds
across the area. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s to low
90s. A surface high will be across the area Monday night with light
and variable winds and temperatures dropping into the upper 50s to
mid 60s. Winds will be out of the south on Tuesday with temperatures
warming up into the mid/upper 80s to the low 90s. Temperatures
Tuesday night will drop into the low to mid/upper 60s. High
temperatures on Wednesday will be similar or slightly higher than
the previous day with winds out of the south to southeast. Low
temperatures Wednesday night will be in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Temperatures will continue to slightly warm up Thursday and Friday
with highs on Friday in the low to upper 90s. Low temperatures
Thursday night and Friday night will range from the mid 60s to
low/mid 70s. Monday through Thursday will be mostly dry then precip
chances increase by Friday night (up to 40% chance) with the
arrival of an upper trough.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 902 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

- UPDATE 900 PM CDT:
The vast majority of original discussion below is still valid.
However, based on latest high-res models, have delayed the
overnight PROB30 thunderstorm group a few hours to the 08-11Z
time frame.

- Original Discussion 723 PM CDT:
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
High in VFR ceiling/visibility and dry/thunderstorm-free
conditions through at least the majority of the period (and
especially these first 6 hours this evening), BUT much of the
remainder of the period becomes a bit more "murky" as there is
at least limited support for a few potentially problematic
issues, including: 1) at least one (if not two) windows-of-
opportunity for thunderstorm activity...2) the potential for at
least brief MVFR ceiling especially Sunday daytime. The "finer
details" of wind direction also becomes more in question
especially beyond these first 6-9 hours, as there is some
uncertainty in the timing of a slow-moving cold front (not to
mention POSSIBLE convective outflow influences).

- Ceiling/visibility/thunderstorm potential:
High confidence in continued VFR/thunderstorm-free conditions at
least through these first 6 hours this evening. However, with at
least limited support in latest high-res models, have introduced
a PROB30 group for possible thunderstorm activity 06-09Z, just
in case activity is able to "survive" far enough east to affect
KGRI/KEAR. Getting into the latter half of the period Sunday
daytime, questions mainly surround ceiling heights and
thunderstorm potential. Starting with ceiling, have maintained
VFR for now, but there are enough "hints" of a few to possibly
several hours of MVFR that have introduced scattered clouds as
low as 1-2 K ft. AGL. Thunderstorm-wise, latest higher-res
models show only limited support for activity at KGRI/KEAR, but
it also cannot be ruled out (especially beyond 21Z). However,
this is simply too far out in time (and too low of confidence)
to justify even a PROB30 group for now.

- Wind details:
Generally, the period starts with steady southeasterly breezes
this evening and will likely end with steady northeasterly
breezes Sunday afternoon, but admittedly a lot of the "in
between" is a bit murky due to model differences in the exact
timing of the passage of a weak cold front, not to mention
possible convective outflow influences. That being said,
outside of any possible convective outflow, sustained speeds
should largely prevail at-or-below 12KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Pfannkuch