Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 222034

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
334 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

It`s been a pleasant start to the weekend across the CWA, dry
conditions remain in place as we sit north of an upper level
disturbance extended through the Central/Southern Plains. Skies
have been partly/mostly cloud through early afternoon, though
satellite imagery is showing clearing skies across the north. At
the surface, high pressure continues to settle in from the north,
with the ridge axis lying across NWrn portions of the CWA.

Through the short term period tonight/Sunday, the forecast remains
a dry one, with models in good agreement showing upper level
ridging sliding east across the Plains. The primary concerns lie
with temperatures/frost potential tonight, then fire weather
concerns Sunday afternoon.

Looking at tonight, thanks to little/if any sky cover, light winds
and cooler air mass, low temperatures are forecast to fall into
the 30s CWA-wide. The surface ridge axis is expected to continue
sliding through the CWA, bringing light/variable winds to all
locations at some point this evening, with winds then turning
south-southwesterly after midnight. While temperatures at/below
freezing are not forecast, a few locations may get cold enough to
support the development of frost. After collab with neighbors,
decide to issue a frost adv for a few of our far southwestern
counties. At this point it looks to be marginal, but some guidance
has the MCK/HLC area (bordering our SW) dropping to around 33-34,
and with the southern locations likely to have the lighter winds
linger later into the night, went with this area for the advisory.
To the north, in the LXN/ODX areas, while mid 30s are also
possible for lows, these areas should see wind speeds start to
pick up a bit more toward the morning, which would work against
frost. Will be something for the evening crew to monitor.

As we get into Sunday, a breezy/windy day is expected. The surface
high continues sliding south, while low pressure begins to deepen
over WY/CO, bringing a tighter pressure gradient across the area.
Winds are forecast to turn to the south, with sustained speeds of
20- 25/gusts near 35 MPH possible, especially across the western
half of the CWA. Didn`t make notable changes to forecast highs,
which remain in the lower 70s, close to MOS guidance but warmer
than some of the other models. Forecast dewpoints are on the lower
side of things in the lower 30s, which result in RH values during
the afternoon falling into the lower/mid 20% range. Will continue
to call for near critical conditions CWA-wide in the HWO, but at
this point couldn`t get the values needed for a fire weather

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

The primary forecast concerns through the long term period remain
with multiple precipitation chances.

Late Sunday night, models showing the first disturbance to affect
the area moving in from the west. This lower amplitude shortwave
disturbance looks to take a track mainly north of the CWA through
Monday, but models have been showing a small chance of our
northern areas getting clipped by a few showers, so do have some
20% chances in the forecast during the morning hours. This
disturbance is accompanied by a cold front which looks to pass
through during the late afternoon hours, but ahead of it,
increased mixing potential and warm temps aloft will bring a bump
up in temps. Forecast highs are in the lower/mid 70s northeast to
near 80 in the southwest. May have to watch for fire weather
issues in west-southwestern portions of the CWA, gusty west-
northwest winds behind the front build in behind the front, and
forecast RH values fall into the mid-upper 20% range.

Dry conditions are expected to continue into the Monday evening
hours, but after midnight, preciptiation chances start ramping
back up from west-east. Another upper level disturbance crosses
the region, this time models showing it being a bit stronger and
tracking further south through Nebraska. PoPs are CWA-wide late
Mon night into Tuesday night, with the better chances being
along/north of I-80. Models continue to show instability remaining
south of the area, so kept thunder mention out of the forecast.
Lowered high temperatures for Tuesday, esp across the north, with
lower 50s near Ord to lower/mid 60s across north central KS.

Shortwave upper level ridging passing in between systems is
expected to bring dry conditions for Wednesday. Looks like it
will be a pleasant but cool day, with highs in the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

The forecast for the end of the week Thur-Sat remains unsettled,
with precipitation chances each day as an upper level low pressure
system works its way onto the Plains. High look to be below
average (~mid 60s) all 3 days.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Quiet weather with VFR conditions expected through this TAF
period. Will have a few clouds both in the lower (~4-5k ft) and
upper levels passing through this afternoon, but clear skies are
expected this evening/tonight. Surface high pressure will keep
winds on the light side through all but the final few hours of the
period, variable this afternoon/evening before turning more
southerly. Winds will increase/become more gusty mid/late morning


NE...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for NEZ082-083.

KS...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ005-017.



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