Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 302106
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
406 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ALOFT: NW FLOW WILL CONT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU TOMORROW...WITH
A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE W AND A TROF OVER THE ERN USA. A
SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING THRU AND DEAMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVER SRN
ALBERTA/SASK/MT. THIS TROF WILL TURN SE INTO THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT
AND BRUSH BY THE FCST AREA IN A DAMPENED FASHION TOMORROW AM. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROF THAT WILL BE OVER SRN SASK/MT.

SURFACE: ANOTHER COLD FRONT WAS SINKING INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES. THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO THE FCST AREA.
RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOWED IT WAS QUASI-STATIONARY FROM BBW-ODX-GRI-
AUH-JYR. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHEN THIS FRONT WILL RESUME ITS PROGRESS TO
THE S...BUT IT COULD BECOME MOBILE FROM TSTM OUTFLOWS ONCE THEY
DEVELOP. EITHER WAY...THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY CONT S AND INTO THE
SRN PLAINS TOMORROW.

THIS AFTERNOON: WE ARE MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS TO DEVELOP
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. LOW-LVL FGEN IS OCCURRING IN THE
PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY. MLCAPE IS CURRENTLY 2000-3000
J/KG ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT...AND BACKED LOW-LVL WINDS HAVE
INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 40-50 KTS. 0-3 KM SRH IS 100-250 J/KG.
SO SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE "IF" TSTMS INITIATE.

AS OF 20Z THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF CU ON VIS SATELLITE. SO NOTHING IS
IMMINENT.

TONIGHT: THE FCST HINGES ON TSTM DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS UNCERTAIN IN
TIME AND LOCATION. CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW DUE TO THE PLETHORA
OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS.
CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM THE 15Z SREF QPF PROBABILITIES ARE THAT
TSTMS WILL INITIATE OVER NE NEB NEAR THE TERMINUS OF THE 35-45 KT
LOW-LVL JET. THESE STORMS SHOULD THEN CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS THAT
TRACKS E OF THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...SOME TSTMS ON ITS WRN FRINGE
COULD AFFECT PARTS OF S-CNTRL NEB. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A FEW TSTMS
COULD ERUPT OVER WRN NEB/SW SD...WITH THEIR DYING REMNANTS MOVING
THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...M/CLOUDY.

WED: CLEARING WITH TEMPS EASING BACK CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL. SHOULD
SEE FEW-SCT STRATOCU FORM WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

WE HAVE NOTED THAT THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE HRW-NMM AND ARW ARE FCSTG
A FEW TSTMS OVER N-CNTRL AND NE NEB LATE. HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL CREATE A CAP AND THERE WILL NOT BE ANY DISCERNABLE
FORCING. SO IT`S DOUBTFUL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. SO THE FCST IS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS RATHER TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING WEAK UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEMS INTO OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE SMALL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...GENERALLY
LESS THAN 50/50...MANY AREAS COULD END UP BEING DRY OR SEEING VERY
LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS IS TYPICAL WITH MORE ISOLATED JULY
CONVECTION THE FEW TO SCATTERED AREAS THAT DO SEE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
END UP GETTING SOME APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS WHILE THEIR NEIGHBORS LOOK
ON WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE PRIMARILY TO MARGINAL SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES. HOWEVER...SEVERAL STRONG STORMS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY IN THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME WHEN A SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING
THROUGH BRINGING WITH IT A SLIGHTLY BETTER COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WED AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR. MULTI-LAYERED SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 13K
FT. SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS HAVE SHIFTED TO SE AT GRI. RADAR SHOWS
THE FRONT ROUGHLY BBW-GRI-AUH-JYR AND IT IS STATIONARY. SO IT IS
UNCERTAIN WHEN THIS WSHFT WILL OCCUR AT EAR. IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL
THIS EVENING. BASED ON THIS...AMENDED THE EAR TAF TO MOVE THE
WSHFT BACK IN TIME. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR. MULTI-LAYERED CIGS AT OR ABOVE 13K FT. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A TSTM. E WINDS UNDER 10 KTS BECOME NE AFTER 06Z.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

WED THRU 18Z: VFR CLEARING. SCT STRATOCU DEVELOP AFTER 14Z AND
COULD BEGIN AS LOW AS 2500 FT BEFORE LIFTING TO AROUND 3500 FT.
N-NNE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



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