Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 111305
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
805 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH
SUBSEQUENT LOW HUMIDITY AND SOMEWHAT OF A BREEZE BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

WITH THE LAST OF THE DYING SHOWERS EXITING THE CWA OFF TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST...WE SHOULD HAVE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM.
ALTHOUGH A BROAD TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE UNITED STATES...A SURFACE HIGH HIGH WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER...KEEPING US DRY. AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST...SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. USING BIAS
CORRECTED DEWPOINTS...WHICH ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN MOST
NUMERICAL MODELS...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 70S FOR
HIGHS...WILL GIVE US HUMIDITY NEAR 20 PERCENT OR A LITTLE LOWER.
WIND WILL PROBABLY NOT INCREASE ENOUGH TO GET CLOSE TO BEING A
PROBLEM UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL BE
A VERY SHORT WINDOW OF TIME WHERE WE COULD SQUEEZE IN A FEW HOURS
WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD BE APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
FOR NOW...THE FORECAST IS NOT WINDY ENOUGH TO GO PAST MENTIONING
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT...LOWS SHOULD BE
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM TONIGHT AND NOT BOTTOM OUT LOWER THAN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MODELS ARE NOT QUITE SO WARM FOR AT
LEAST SOME OF OUR LOCATIONS...BUT USING CONSRAW...WHICH DOES
PARTICULARLY WELL FOR LOW TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL...SOLIDIFIES THIS WARMER FORECAST. ANY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FROM THE JET WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE CWA WHERE THE NOSE OF THE JET
IS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN THE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW SUNDAY TO SUNDAY
NIGHT...SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM WILL START TO AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES. THE
MUCAPE IS OVER 3000 J/KG FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING
THIS TIME. BY LATER IN THE EVENING A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE PUSHES
INTO THE AREA AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL DIMINISH FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BRINGS IN COLDER AIR AND DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW AS THE TEMPERATURES
FALL DURING THE DAY...THEN TURN TO ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
COMING TO AN END. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE TRICKY. WITH RAIN TO START
WITH IT IS HARD TO ACCUMULATE SNOW. IN ADDITION...THE GROUND IS
FAIRLY WARM SO SNOW SHOULD MELT PRETTY RAPIDLY. THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BUT ANYTHING THAT
FALLS WILL MELT QUICKLY.

BY MONDAY THE UPPER LOW IS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. BY MONDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION STARTS TO SPREAD
INTO THE AREA AND WITH SUNSHINE AND SOUTH WINDS TEMPERATURES SHOULD
START TO WARM BACK UP. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...BUT WITH WINDS ALOFT ONLY AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS THE WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY BUT SHOULD KEEP FROM GETTING TOO STRONG.

THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL APPROACH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE COMBINATION WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 805 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY AND PRECIPITATION-
FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ONLY A FAIRLY
LIMITED COVERAGE OF PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUDS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
CONCERN AVIATION-WISE THAT IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT TAF IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT
MAINLY BETWEEN 04Z-10Z AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DURING THIS SAME TIME OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH GUST POTENTIAL UP TO
AROUND 25KT...THUS KEEPING THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF SHEAR DIFFERENCE
IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET AROUND 30KT OR LESS...SO HAVE LEFT
OUT A FORMAL LLWS MENTION FOR NOW. SPEAKING OF SURFACE
WINDS...PRIOR TO THE INCREASE TONIGHT SUSTAINED SPEEDS TODAY WILL
AVERAGE NO MORE THAN 10-15KT OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSBILE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



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