Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 311957
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
257 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CUMULUS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RADAR HAS A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THESE WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THAT
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE WILL BE OUTFLOW FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
DRIVING IT TO THE SOUTH. HAVE SPREAD THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE SUN
GOES DOWN EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH.

LATER TONIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE UPPER WAVE IS FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THAT LATE
TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A PATTERN SHIFT BY MID-LATE WEEK AS A
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND TROUGHS ON THE
COASTS. THE ECMWF TRENDS TOWARD THIS A BIT EARLIER IN THE WEEK AS
COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT AGAIN...MOST LONG TERM SOLUTIONS/ENSEMBLES
ARRIVE AT THIS SCENARIO. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE DEVELOPING...WE SEEM TO
HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK
HELPING TO DAMPEN AND TRAVEL THROUGH THE CREST OF THE RIDGE...WHICH
COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO RAISE OUR DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR TOWARD MID
TO LATE WEEK.

WE START OUT SATURDAY EVENING WITH A RELATIVELY ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW. ENSEMBLES ARE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO PUSH CHANCES MUCH HIGHER THAN 40 POP FOR NOW. BESIDES
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WE HAVE A GENERAL 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN AT PRETTY MUCH ANY GIVEN TIME...AS WE REMAIN IN A FAIRLY
TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME PATTERN OF RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR ACCOMPANIED
WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR AND NOT MUCH OF ANY FORCING MECHANISM
ALOFT...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A BOUNDARY HANGING IN AND AROUND
THE AREA. GENERALLY HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WITH LOW POPS FOR
ALMOST THE ENTIRE EXTENDED...KEEPING SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT DRY WITH
FAIR AGREEMENT FROM MODELS/ENSEMBLES...BUT NO GUARANTEE. SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO PIN DOWN ANY SPECIFICS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW CUMULUS ARE FORMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS STILL NORTH OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. THIS WEAK
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH AND THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB



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