Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 200540
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1240 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Updated to significantly decrease pops through the evening. Will
continue to monitor trends and latest guidance before pulling all
pops for the evening/overnight. Skies are also clearing some
across western portions and will reflect that in the forecast for
this evening as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Primary concern today has been with thunderstorms continuing to
push east through the CWA. Upper level pattern across the region
being affected by a couple of features showing up in satellite
imagery, the first being the disturbance currently crossing the
Central Plains, driving the ongoing shower/thunderstorm activity.
Further to the northwest, a stronger disturbance is sliding out of
the eastern MT/WY area. At the surface, a frontal boundary started
working its way south into the area last night and has made its
way south of the CWA. A better push of cooler/drier air and a
reinforcing shot of northwesterly winds remains off to the
northwest with that second disturbance. Thanks to plenty of cloud
cover/shower activity this morning, it was a dreary day for much
of the central/northwestern CWA, getting to around 70 degrees.
Across the south-southeast ahead of the front , there was a break
in the clouds, temps climbed into the 80s. This also allowed more
instability to develop, and as we got into the early afternoon and
precipitation shifted into that more favorable airmass,
strengthening occurred. The overall intensity over our counties
have waned some and shifted further east-southeast, a trend that
should continue.

Later this evening/overnight, precipitation chances remain in the
forecast. Models are in pretty good agreement that after 00Z,
the CWA is sitting between the best chances to the southeast and
additional chances to the west-northwest, associated with that
second upper level disturbance. Though model QPF isn`t significant
or widespread, hard to rule any particular area out, at least
through 06Z. Do have the areal coverage diminishing between 06-12Z
tonight.

Looking to be a pretty nice weekend, dry conditions are forecast
both Sat-Sun, as well as into Monday. Models are in pretty good
agreement with the upper level pattern through this time frame,
with more amplified northwesterly flow Sat-Sat night in the wake
of tonight`s disturbance, transitioning to more zonal flow late
Sun into Monday as weak shortwave ridging builds in from the west.
At the surface, high pressure continues to settle in from the
northwest, centered right over the Central Plains late in the day
Saturday into part of the day Sunday. Expecting lighter winds for
Sat, becoming more southerly for Sun-Mon. A tightening pressure
gradient forecast to develop on Mon looks to bring breezy
conditions, with speeds in the 15-25 mph range.

As far as temperatures go, Sat still forecast to be the coolest
day, with highs generally in the mid 70s. But will dewpoints in
the 40s- lower 50s, will a bit of a taste of fall. Lower/mid 80s
expected to return for Sun-Mon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Middle portion of the work week looks to be an unsettled one, with
periodic precipitation chances as a number of upper level
shortwave disturbances pass through the region. Not going to go
into a lot of details with shorter term concerns, but the main
precipitation chances look to be confined to the Tuesday through
Wednesday night time frame. Still plenty of things yet to be
worked out in the models with exact timing/location. Have Thursday
dry with another precip chance into Friday, but confidence is
pretty low with that at this point. Temps currently forecast to be
near normal on Tuesday in the mid/upper 80s, below normal for the
remainder of the work week, with mid 70s/lower 80s for
Thurs/Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with breezy
northerly winds expected to develop during the morning hours
Saturday as the combination of mixing to near 700 mb with stronger
winds aloft are expected to result in wind gusts to near 20 kts
through the mid afternoon hours. In addition...with the stronger
winds already in place in VWP this evening...added some marginal
LLWS to the TAFS through about 13Z when surface winds will begin
to increase and become a bit gusty.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Billings Wright
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...Rossi



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