Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 180507
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1207 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Potentially Hazards Weather: None.

Aloft: Multiple ob platforms and RAP model inits indicated low
amplitude WNW flow over the CONUS with a modest anticyclonic
curvature over the W. A benign shrtwv trof was over the Panhandle
and this trof will cross the CWA tonight with nothing more than a
few high clouds. The tail end of a potent trof over Srn Canada
will cross the rgn in the PM tomorrow. Low amplitude WNW flow will
cont.

Surface: Strong high pres was over the Ern USA with return flow
over the Plns. A cool front moved onshore into the Pac NW this
AM. The CWA will remain the warm sector until this front moves
thru tomorrow. Weak high pres will rapidly develop over the rgn
behind this front tomorrow afternoon.

Rest of this afternoon: Gorgeous. Get out an enjoy it! Temps will
peak around 4 PM.

Tonight: A few high clds around before midnight then clearing.
Svrl degs warmer than last night. Lgt S winds.

Wed: Sct cirroform clouds thru early afternoon ahead of the
trof...then clearing as it moves thru. The fcst may not have
enough clouds in it prior to 18Z. It may be p/cldy not m/sunny.
Winds will pick up in CAA from the Tri-Cities N and W. Gusts up
to 25 kts from LXN-ODX.

Most of S-cntrl Neb will be svrl degs cooler than today. From Hwy
136 down into N-cntrl KS...temps will be similar to today.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Potentially Hazards Weather: Windy Fri...espcly over N-cntrl KS.
Then a slight chance for a few isolated storms Fri night into Sat
morning.

A ridge will cross the rgn Thu with SW flow aloft remaining thru
Sat. A substantial pattern-changing trof passage will occur Sat
night. NW flow will prevail next week as a longwave ridge develops
over the Wrn USA with a trof in the E.

The CWA will remain in the warm sector until a strong cool front
crosses Sat AM. This front will be devoid of precip until it gets
E and S of the CWA. So don`t expect much rain. This front will
come thru dry for most locations. The main mitigating factors will
be 1) a cap as differential advection advects an EML over the
low-lvl moisture...and 2) poor frontal timing. Frontal ascent will
break the cap just to our E and S late Sat PM.

This scant opportunity for rain is it for the next 7 days.

We will probably have the fronts associated with a clipper diving
thru Sun night into Mon but they will be moisture-starved as
well.

Temps: cont`d way above normal Thu-Fri. Sat`s cool frontal
passage will return temps back to near normal thru Tue.

Raised low temps Fri AM in strong pres grad/mechanical mixing
(using average of model 2m temps)...and we are now fcstg record
tying or record breaking warm lows.

...Records...
GRI: 59 in 1953 (current fcst: 59)
HSI: 57 in 2015 (current fcst: 59)

Wind: Windy from the S Fri and then from the NW Sat. Fri 30G45
mph likely across the Srn fringe of the CWA (Plainville-
Beloit)...but if the EC/GFS/NAM 850 mb wind fields are right and
there is plenty of sun...winds may be in that range for much more
of the CWA.

A possible snag with this idea is that a band of stratus is fcst
to form from Hwy 281 E. If the 12Z NAM is right and it lingers
thru much of the day...it will suppress mixing and hold winds
down there.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Thursday)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Expecting VFR conditions through the forecast period. KUEX WSR-88D
VAD wind profile was showing southwest winds off the deck up to 40
kt so went ahead and added LLWS from 06Z until 12Z. There is a
surface trough moving through later this morning and winds will
gradually shift from south to west to northwest by noon. As far as
clouds are concerned, everything should be above 20 kft.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Ewald



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