Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 240011
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
711 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

ALOFT: A RIDGE WAS OVER THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF AN UPR LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROF OVER THE WRN USA. THIS LOW WAS OVER UT AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND LATEST 2 RUNS OF NAM/GFS/EC/GEM ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED ON IT MOVING INTO WY BY 00Z...CROSSING THE STATE TONIGHT
AND THEN INTO SW SD TOMORROW.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WAS OVER SE MT WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E
THRU SD AND THEN SE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. A PAC COLD FRONT
EXTENDED SW THRU WY/UT/AZ...WITH A LEE TROF EXTENDING S THRU
WY/CO/NM. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY EJECT INTO SD THIS EVE AND
ESSENTIALLY STALL... AWAITING THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPR LOW. THE COLD
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND MERGE WITH THE LEE TROF TONIGHT BEFORE
ADVANCING THRU THE FCST AREA TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...A SURGE OF E-W
ORIENTED CANADIAN AIR WILL DROP S AND BEGIN SURGING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS A COLD FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
WILL BE APPROACHING THE NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY 00Z/MON.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: INCREASING THICK CIRROSTRATUS FROM THE W.
WINDY AS S WINDS CONT TO GUST 30-40 KTS.

PEAK GUST THUS FAR 39 KTS AT EAR.

TONIGHT: M/CLOUDY AND MILD. STILL WINDY...ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO 3
AM WITH S WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KTS. THEN WINDS DIMINISH AS THE
SFC TROF APPROACHES.

HIGH-BASED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE SW THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE AND SPREAD NE INTO THE FCST AREA...MOST LIKELY
SUSTAINED BY THE COLD FRONT ALOFT. TEMPS CLOSE TO 80F AND DWPTS
NEAR 50F HAVE RESULTED IN A NARROW AXIS OF MUCAPE OF 1000-1500
J/KG TO THE W THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNAL COOLING WILL REDUCE THIS
INSTABILITY LEAVING 500-750 J/KG. ENOUGH FOR PROBABLY SOME SMALL
HAIL AND G40 KTS IN A COUPLE SPOTS.

SUN: DECREASING CLOUDS FROM W-E. THE COLD FRONT ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING THRU THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE FIRST STORMS OF THE DAY TO
FIRE E OF HWY 281 AND THEY COULD BE SVR.

SVR: DRIER SFC AIR WILL HAVE OVERTAKEN MOST OF THE FCST AREA
BEHIND THE SFC TROF...BUT DWPTS COULD STILL 58-62F E OF HWY 281.
AND WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S...THIS WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE UP TO
1500 J/KG. THE WIND PROFILE WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS. THAT IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
SUPERCELL CONVECTIVE MODE BEFORE STORMS CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE
WHICH WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN OVER ERN NEB.

CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE FROM THE SW AT 45 KTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW LATE AFTERNOON...
BUT ANY INSTABILITY SHWR ACTIVITY WITH THE UPR LOW BEHIND IT IN
THE COLD AIR.

ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TOMORROW. BUMPED UP HIGHS FROM THE PRVS FCST
TO 75-82F...COOLEST N AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO EJECT ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...KEEPING THE
POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM. THIS WILL BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AND THERE IS
PARTICULAR INTEREST IN SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ITS TREK THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
EVENING WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE
CWA BY MID- EVENING. OUR FAR EAST MAY HAVE SOME LINGERING
PRECIP/SEVERE CHANCES...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE COLD FRONT MAKES
IT THROUGH. SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE CWA...ALONG
A DRY LINE.

A STRONGER WAVE DROPS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MONDAY AS A
LOW- AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILED SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ALL BUT INSURING A
DRY PERIOD. AS A LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...WE COULD
GET SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT...FOCUSED MORE WEST
SOUTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE THETA-E AXIS.

ON TUESDAY THERE SEEMS TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG BOTH THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES THAT WE WILL HAVE THE STRONG
NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. I AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT A WARM FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS THAT COULD BE THE FOCUS OF SEVERE WEATHER...
INCLUDING TORNADOES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE.
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES INDICATE SIGNIFICANT SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STEEP. AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...HEIGHT FALLS WILL
ENCOURAGE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND WILL LIKELY HAVE SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOP AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH NEAR WHERE
THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE. THIS WAVE LOOKS LIKE
IT MEANS BUSINESS. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD CHANCE OF QUITE A BIT OF
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE
CWA.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WE COULD CONTINUE TO GET CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AS THE AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND THE ELONGATED
TROUGH PIVOTS...KEEPING THE AXIS CLOSE BY TO THE NORTH. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHIFTS EAST AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO QUELL SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE FOR THURSDAY SHOULD HELP KEEP THIS DAY
DRY...BUT ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE ON ITS WAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT A
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THAT WILL ONCE AGAIN PUT THUNDERSTORMS
BACK IN THE FORECAST.

THE TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME SWINGING THROUGH AS IT BECOMES MORE
NEGATIVELY TILED AND A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME COULD BE
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER...BUT IT IS STILL A
LITTLE EARLY TO DO MUCH MORE SPECULATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A TYPICAL RANGE FOR THE LONG TERM...
BUT THE HIGHS MAY WIND UP BEING AVERAGE TO A BIT BELOW AVERAGE AND
LOWS NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE GENERALLY INCREASED SKY
COVER/MOISTURE. THIS WORKS OUT TO BE HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

IT IS A CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH SOME MODELS LIKE THE RUC
INDICATING STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...WHILE THE NAM IS LESS
SEVERE WITH THE WIND SHEAR AND WOULD NOT EVEN BE WORTH MENTIONING
IN THE TAF. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SINCE IT WAS ALREADY IN THE
FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. WE ALSO HAVE THE
18Z NAM...SEVERAL WRF MODELS...AND THE 12Z ECMWF BASICALLY
CALLING FOR A DRY NIGHT...WHILE THE HRRR AND THE 18Z GFS HINT AT
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT. MOST LIKELY WE WILL BE DRY OR SEE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL KEEP THE VICINITY
THUNDER IN THE TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY



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