Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 172325
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
625 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST IS CENTERED AROUND A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
HIGH INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER OUR AREA AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
WITH 3-5 J/KG CAPE INDICATED. WITH ERODING CAP AND TRENDS SHOWING
STRONGER BULK SHEAR AT 0-6KM IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE THIS
EVENING...WE ARE POISED FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT. AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAS ALREADY BECOME
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARN ON...WITH A CU FIELD DEVELOPING SOUTH OF
THIS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. I EXPECT A BLOSSOMING OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE APPROACHING TROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY PAST MID-EVENING...IT MAY BE MORE
DIFFICULT TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
MODEST LOW- LEVEL JET NEAR 25 KTS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING THAT
COULD HELP SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE HRRR AND WRF SOLUTIONS OF A POTENTIAL MCS TO SWING
THROUGH ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WITH EXPECTED SEVERE
PARAMETERS...WE COULD BE FAIRLY BUSY...AT LEAST FOR THE EVENING.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EAST.

MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...BUT THE NAM IS INDICATING ANOTHER
PERTURBATION THAT COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN CWA IN KANSAS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS VERY SUMMER-LIKE AND ENDS WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT BY NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE VERY SKETCHY BEYOND ABOUT WEDNESDAY
REGARDING TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK.

THE MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BE CHANGES COMING NEXT WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SEE THE FLOW
TRANSITION TO AN UPPER TROUGH BY SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. THAT
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING COOLER WEATHER AND A DECENT SHOT
FOR PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

IN THE MEAN TIME...MUCH OF THE WEEK IS QUITE SUMMER-LIKE
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH PROBABLY THURSDAY...IF NOT
FRIDAY. NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 90S ALL WEEK. FORTUNATELY THERE WILL BE A SHORT BREAK
FROM HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOISTURE
WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...MOST SOLD ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN FACE OF STRONG
WARM ADVECTION AND 40KT LOW LEVEL JET. COVERAGE DEFINITELY
FAVORS NORTHERN AREAS...AND MAYBE EVEN NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
ALL TOGETHER. TIGHTENED UP THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
AREA WITH THIS IN MIND. HOWEVER...AM NOT EXPECTING MORE
THAN A TENTH OR TWO OF RAIN AT MOST.

DID NOT STRAY AT ALL FROM DAYS 4-7 GUIDANCE GIVEN TO US IN THE
GRIDS...PRIMARILY BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR INCREASING STORM
CHANCES BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
COULD START TO DROP A BIT NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PRECIPITATION
MATERIALIZE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

TONIGHT: VFR EXCEPT A 2-4 HR WINDOW OF IFR TSTMS. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT THE 02Z-06Z TIME FRAME IS A START. WATCH FOR
AMENDMENTS IF TSTMS THREATEN. SE UNDER 10 KTS EXCEPT NEAR TSTMS
WHERE WIND WILL BE ERRATIC AND VARIABLE. THERE IS SOME MARGINAL
POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AFTER 06Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

MON: VFR AND ESSENTIALLY SKC. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THE TERMINALS
12Z-13Z WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NNW TO EVENTUALLY NNE BY
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...HALBLAUB


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