Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 132015
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
315 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Confidence on how tonight`s thunderstorm activity is not as high
as I had yesterday for last night`s activity. Model guidance
continues to vary as to how convection may develop and evolve
tonight.

Low clouds have hung around much of the forecast area today,
especially over central Nebraska and areas north of I-80 and east
of Hwy 183. This has kept temperatures slightly cooler than
anticipated with some areas in central Nebraska struggling into
the mid to upper 70s. Where clouds have scattered out,
temperatures are moving into the low 80s.

Tonight:
There is a boundary draped across Nebraska from southeast SD to
the northeast corner of Colorado. This boundary is likely to be a
focus for thunderstorm development, which hasn`t changed much
since yesterday. The upper level disturbance moving southeastward
from the Dakota`s will aid thunderstorm development and
progression overnight. The HRRR/RUC/NAMnest develop thunderstorms
along the boundary this afternoon with the activity taking a dive
southward into north central Kansas by evening, with a secondary
chance overnight with activity from the High plains. The NAM moves
activity out from the High Plains tracking eastward across the
state and the GFS fires activity along the boundary and keeps it
going over central and south central Nebraska all night long. Have
taken a combo of these scenarios for the precipitation potential
tonight, but my current thinking is that the NAMNest/HRRR/RUC are
handling it better especially with the low cloud cover today.
However, despite the cloud cover Mesoanalysis indicates 2000-3000
J/kg CAPE this afternoon. All of this being said, any activity
that may develop tonight has the chance of being severe with ample
instability and 40-45 kts shear. Large hail and damaging winds
are possible.

Monday:
Depending on how convection evolves tonight will impact any
activity tomorrow. Have included a small chance for precipitation
throughout the day tomorrow, but confidence is not high that it
will materialize or how it will evolve. Highs tomorrow are in the
80s over most locations with some low 90s in north central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

The upper level pattern will go from zonal to more southwesterly
and back to zonal by the end of the forecast period. The main
theme is various chances of precipitation and temperatures near to
below normal through the extended.

The next best chance for organized precipitation will be along a
frontal boundary that moves through the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. The upper disturbance associated with this
front is fairly strong and think the chances for precipitation are
fairly high. Wednesday and beyond, the Central Plains will be
under zonal flow, and numerous disturbances will be traversing the
area bringing additional precipitation chances.

.ECLIPSE...

Total Solar Eclipse Monday August 21st around 1pm CDT

There are still discrepancies among the guidance in regards to
what the overall weather pattern will be over the Central Plains
on Monday August 21st. That being said, the main upper pattern is
similar with zonal to slight southwesterly flow. Today the ECMWF
indicates a chance for precipitation while the GFS/Canadian keep
it dry. It is still to early to confidently assess cloud cover.
Stay tuned.

&&


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Confidence is not as high on today`s forecast evolution. Earlier
IFR to current MVFR ceilings have impacted both terminals this
morning and will persist into the early afternoon hours. Expect
southerly winds to be breezy before a chance for thunderstorms
this evening. Thunderstorms will be possible moving southeast into
the area late this afternoon and into the evening hours. Did not
include a prevailing TSRA group for now, with the high-resolution
guidance indicating scattered activity.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Billings Wright


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