Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KGID 271136

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
636 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

...Multi-Day Stretch of Pleasant/Dry/Comfortable Wx Continues in
Progress with Rain Chances Now Pushed Back to Late Sunday...

Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

That batch of cirrostratus on IR satellite has decreased and
thinned in the subsident NW flow. So sky cover was decreased from
p/cloudy to m/clear around sunrise.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Aloft: The pattern was effectively blocked with a low over the
GtLakes and a high over the GtBasin. NW flow was overhead and with
little movement of these will remain NW thru
tonight. A weak shortwave trof was dropping out of Sask into
MT/ND. It was producing some patchy cirrostratus. So clouds were
increased a bit thru dawn.

Surface: Deep low pres was over the GtLakes with high pres over
the Wrn USA. The low will begin to fill today. Frontogenesis will
occur late today over the Nrn Plains as a surge of cool air sinks
S on the backside of the low. This newly formed backdoor cool
front will move thru tonight with gentle CAA developing.

Today: Another very nice day. Any leftover cirrostratus patches
will depart to the S. Add a couple more degs onto yesterday`s
highs. 76-83F with coolest temps near Columbus and warmest Beaver
City-Phillipsburg-Plainville. About 80F in the Tri-Cities. NW
winds could occasionally G20 mph this afternoon.

Tonight: Clear and seasonable. Lows 44-52F from N-S. Light NW
winds become N.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Generally quiet and seasonable fall weather is anticipated across
the local area for the next several days.

Expect a ridge of high pressure to build across the center of the
country over the middle portion of the week as a strong low
pressure system deepens across the Ohio valley and an area of low
pressure spins off the Pacific northwest. For the local area...
expect the weaker area of low pressure across northern Mexico this
morning to eventually get absorbed into the longwave flow...
lifting northeastward across the Rockies and into the plains
toward the end of the upcoming weekend...bringing the first decent
chance for some shower and thunderstorm activity back to the
region late Sunday afternoon or Monday. Because instability over
this time period is very minimal...the chance for any severe or
even strong thunderstorms appears highly unlikely at this time.

In the meantime...expect mostly sunny skies and near seasonal
fall temperatures across the local area with generally gentle there will be a fairly weak pressure gradient in place
across the region underneath the ridge of high pressure aloft. As
the flow turns more southerly late in the week...expect increasing
moisture to advect across the region from the southeast...which
will likely help overnight low temperatures remain in the 50s over
the upcoming weekend...versus the cooler 40s we have seen of late.
With the increasing surface moisture and some forcing from the
aforementioned low coming out of the southwest...felt comfortable
leaving the chance pops given by the blend of models for late in
the weekend and early next week...with minimal changes made to
inherited forecast this morning.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Wednesday)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Significant Weather: None.

Today-Tonight: VFR SKC. Light WNW-NW winds will increase to 10-14
kts this afternoon...possibly gusting to 20 kts a time or two.
Tonight winds diminish to under 10 kts and become NNW. Confidence:


.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


AVIATION...Kelley is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.