Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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942
FXUS63 KGID 230555
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1155 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1154 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Coordination has already started with WPC and we will probably be
increasing QPF further S bringing a little more snow into the I-80
corridor. Need to coordinate this with LBF/OAX. We may be
expanding the advisory/warning another row of counties S.

We are riding the 00Z GFS heavily on this fcst. No NAM input. It
conts its bias being too far N with its QPF.

Much more later...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Satellite and observations indicate mostly clear skies and breezy
northwest winds this afternoon. The warm temperatures and breezy
conditions have brought near critical fire weather concerns to
parts of the area. The southwest is a little drier, but the winds
are lighter. The northwest has the stronger winds, but not quite
as dry. The warm, dry weather is coming to an end.

Winds will turn to the north to northeast tonight and there will
be increasing clouds during the night. Most of the night will be
dry, but towards morning there could be some rain or snow moving
into the far northwest part of the forecast area.

On Thursday there is an upper level low approaching the forecast
area. During the morning, the best chance for precipitation will
be in the northern part of the forecast area. This should be rain
and snow mixed, changing to rain during the morning. By afternoon,
there is some instability around the area and have changed to rain
showers. There is enough instability that there could be some
isolated thunderstorms mainly across north central Kansas and
nearby portions of south central Nebraska.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

The main concern for this period will be the winter weather
Thursday night through Friday night. The upper level low moves
from the central high plains, through northern Nebraska and
northern Iowa and southern Minnesota, toward the Great Lakes area
late Friday night. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible
Thursday evening for a few hours, then as colder air pushes into
the region, rain will gradually mix with and change to snow from
northwest to southeast across the forecast area during the night
Thursday night. The snow will continue into Friday morning and a
small part of the area will mix with or change to rain Friday
afternoon, mostly for north central Kansas. As the upper level low
moves to the northeast Friday night, the snow will come to an end
from west to east.

In addition to the snow, the winds will turn to the northwest and
increase to 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 40 mph. This could
cause some blowing snow for some areas. Most of the blowing snow
will be in the north and eastern parts of the forecast area.

Have decided on an advisory for the area along and north of
highway 92 and a warning for Valley and Greeley counties. These
areas have the best chance for the most snow and blowing snow.

Once past Friday night, cooler air settles into the area for
Friday night into Saturday with a cool high pressure system across
the area. Will have to watch the temperatures Friday night across
the north. The fresh snow and light winds, it will be dependent on
how quickly the clouds move out of the area. Saturday night there
is a little warm advection but temperatures will still be a bit
cool. Sunday will be a little warmer, but there is an upper level
wave in Kansas and there is a small chance for rain Sunday
afternoon for part of north central Kansas. Warm advection is
expected for Monday and warmer temperatures are expected. Another
upper level wave is possible Monday night through Tuesday night.
There is a chance for the area to have a little precipitation and
once again it will be a rain/snow situation as temperatures warm
during the day and cool at night. The temperatures Wednesday will
be seasonable.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Friday)
Issued at 1154 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Significant Wx: Flgt conds decay with IFR CIGs moving in followed
by IFR VSBYs in SN. De-icing/plowing ops required Thu eve.

Rest of Tonight: VFR SKC to start but MVFR CIGs expected to invade
09Z-10Z. NE winds 8-12 kts. Confidence: Medium due to uncertainty
of timing on chg to MVFR.

Thu: MVFR CIGs lower to IFR. RA moves in and mixes with or
changes to SN 21Z-00Z. NE winds increase and gust to near 25 kts.
Confidence: High

Thu Eve: IFR in snow. Wet snow accumulates on RWYs. NNE winds
20-30 kts become N by 06Z. Confidence: High

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 9 PM CST Friday
     for NEZ041-046>049.

     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Thursday to 9 PM CST Friday for
     NEZ039-040.

KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelley
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Kelley



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