Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 031630
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1030 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

We are updating the fcst frequently to keep up with latest trends.
Main recent change was to lower POPs N and W of the Tri-Cities.
EAR briefly dropped to 3SM around 915 am but the snow has since
ended. Most of the snow will be E of Hwy 281. Also trended toward
more S and less R this afternoon.

This is a very marginal situation temp wise and that creates
headaches with precip types. Lift and saturation in the snow
growth zone (DGZ) will peak now thru 1 pm. Thereafter...the DGZ
begins drying out and lift only conts below the DGZ. This will
probably result in more rain or even drzl after 1 pm.

Will cont to monitor.


UPDATE Issued at 843 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

POPs have been increased quite a bit as precip is falling. Used a
blend of the last 5 runs of the RAP model. Based on fcst soundings
...all mention of frzg rain has been withdrawn from the fcst. HWO
updated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Lots of moisture is streaming north and across the local area
this morning ahead of an upper level disturbance across northern
Mexico. With isentropic lift ahead of this low...expect the light
precipitation shield that has formed across southern Kansas this
morning to continue to lift north through the morning hours...
eventually spreading some light rain or snow across the
southeastern half of the local forecast area.

Looking at model soundings near the KS/NE state line this morning
...have a hard time seeing much in the way of freezing rain as the
very shallow layer of above freezing air aloft will rapidly cool
as the profile saturates...resulting in either a very cold light
rain or light snow across the local area. Despite this...did
maintain a very small possibility for some light freezing rain
through the early morning hours...primarily across north central
Kansas...but think that any freezing precip will be brief at
best...with the potential for some light snowfall accumulations
actually looking more likely.

While this is not expected to be a big event...did up snowfall
totals south and east of a line that extends from roughly
Geneva...to Hastings...to Phillipsburg Kansas...where the most
favored locations could see between one half and one inch of light
snowfall accumulation on grassy and elevated surfaces through the
early afternoon hours. Models have come into some agreement with
upwards of two tenths of an inch of liquid equivalent in the most
favored spots...which is significantly higher than just 24 hours
ago.

As we then transition into the afternoon hours...do not expect
any breaks in cloud cover...but precipitation should let up...
meaning a cold...cloudy day is in store for the local area. With
inherited high temps generally in the mid to upper 30s...did not
need to make any significant alterations to temperatures this
afternoon.

For tonight...expect gradual clearing from west to east during
the late night hours...which should allow temperatures across our
west to plummet to near or below 20 degrees overnight...with more
modest mid to upper 20s are expected in areas that hang onto
additional cloud cover through early Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 329 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

For the period Sunday through Monday, the upper trough is through
the forecast area and the surface high to the south moves off to
the east. Expect dry conditions with mild temperatures across the
area.

These will be the last mild days for a while. A cold front is
expected to move through the area Monday night and an upper level
wave moves into the area. The models have some slight differences
in the timing of the front as it moves through. Once thing they do
agree on is that behind the front the pressure gradient tightens
and winds will start to increase. Have increased the winds behind
the front. Another difference in the models is if there is
precipitation. The NAM has some while the GFS and ECMWF are mainly
dry. There is a little precipitation around the area though. Have
added some light snow to late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
There is some light amounts, but should not be much. The main
upper wave will move into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.
The other story with this is the cold air behind the front. A
strong high pressure system builds into the northern plains and
brings cold air into the area. The precipitation Tuesday night
into Wednesday will be snow.

By Wednesday night the precipitation has come to an end and dry
conditions are expected through Friday. Wednesday through Thursday
will be the coldest as the surface high moves through the area. By
Thursday night there is a little warm advection, but lows will
still remain cold. Highs on Friday will start to warm a little
bit.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Sunday)
Issued at 539 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Clouds will continue to thicken and lower at both terminals
through the morning hours as the atmosphere continues to saturate
in response to an upper level disturbance approaching from the
southwest. While the bulk of any precipitation will remain south
of the terminals...MVFR or lower CIGS should set in during the
mid morning hours...and linger through most of the day. With a
fairly light pressure gradient in place...do not expect winds to
be much of a factor...with southerly winds generally less than
12kts anticipated for the majority of the forecast period.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelley
SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Rossi



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