Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 110516
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1116 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Main issue will be the potential for a wintry mix in our south for
the Friday night through Sunday night time frame.

Tonight/Wednesday

We start out with upper level flow this evening, and within a quasi-
warm sector, keeping us fairly mild. This will change tomorrow as a
cold front introduces a shallow, arctic air mass. The faster
introduction of the cold air seems like the way to go, and tomorrow
will be cold for most, with highs in the 20s, possibly occurring in
the morning as strong cold air advection ensues.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Rest of forecast...

Upper level flow turns southwest as a synoptic trough settles into
the western United States. A series of small waves will eject into
the central Plains and give us a shot at some precipitation on an
on/off basis for the next several days. The first chance arrives
essentially Wednesday night, affecting mainly our northern half of
the CWA with flurries/light snow potential, but does not appear to
be a big deal.

There is increasing confidence that warm air will override the
shallow, arctic air mass in the Friday night through Sunday night
time frame. For awhile, it appeared that we might be far enough
north to avoid freezing rain, and perhaps only have to deal with
some sleet in our far south, but trends are farther north for the
overriding warmer air and freezing rain has been introduced into the
forecast in our southern CWA. The tri-cities are still forecast to
have only snow. Details will be tough to nail down, but chances of
precipitation are higher for this period than what we had before as
long term solutions converge. The Ecmwf takes a sharp northward turn
of the upper low Sunday into Monday, and takes it to an aimless
wobble over the central High Plains by Tuesday, so confidence wanes
Sunday and beyond as divergence among models are evident by Monday.
The weather could wind up being a wintry mess by Sunday, so we need
to keep an eye on this one. Temperatures still look well below
normal Wednesday through Friday, then moderating some for the
weekend, but I did lower temperatures during the day a few degrees
as models have a history of too much optimism for a warm-up in
association with eroding shallow arctic air masses.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Main concern for the TAF period will be wind shear at the
beginning of the period, but that will diminish before day break.
Currently there are some high clouds out there, but the ceilings
will gradually lower during the period. Still should be VFR
through the period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...JCB



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