Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 221126

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
626 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Zonal upper level flow is in place across the region early this
morning, on the northern side of weak ridging set up between
troughing over the Great Lakes and west coast. A subtle
disturbance in the flow is resulting in scattered light
precipitation across the area, at this point mainly affecting
western/northern portions of the area. Accumulations aren`t going
to amount to much, the few automated sites that have recorded
precip have only picked up a trace or a hundredth of an inch so
far. At the surface, east- southeasterly winds are in place across
the CWA, driven by high pressure centered over the MN/Canada
border. Speeds have generally been around 10-15 MPH. Temps at 3 am
are in the mid-upper 30s.

The upper level wave and ongoing preciptiation will continue to
slide east early this morning, and once it pushes east of the CWA,
the remainder of the daytime hours are forecast to be dry.
Overall, not a lot of change aloft across the area through the
day. At the surface, winds will turn more south-southeasterly
today, as that area of high pressure builds in over the Great
Lakes. Between it and a trough of low pressure over the High
Plains, expecting to see a tightened pressure gradient, and
increasing wind speeds. Sustained speeds for the midday/afternoon
hours are forecast to reach 15-20 MPH with gusts of 25-30 MPH,
especially across western portions of the area. Didn`t make any
notable changes to high temperatures for today, which are forecast
to reach the lower/mid 50s.

Looking to this evening/tonight, flow aloft starts turning more
southwesterly, as that west coast system pushes further inland.
Continue to keep the evening hours dry, but precip chances return
for the 06-12Z time frame. While the main system is still well off
to the west of the area, another weak mid level disturbance looks
to pass through the area, with lift aided by warm air/moisture
advecting north as the LLJ picks up. Decided to stick with 20-30%
chances, models still vary with whether we see measurable
precipitation (nothing significant) or it ends up being more
drizzle. Did raise lows for tonight, with the expected plentiful
cloud cover and continued southerly flow, thinking lows will
bottom out in the mid/upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Lots of uncertainty through the extended periods as the upper
level low off central California eventually makes its way across
the desert southwest and into the plains late in the week. What
is more certain is that this will be the first of several upper
level disturbances emerging from the long wave trough across the
western states...setting up a potentially unsettled period of
weather across the local area.

With the first upper level low...expect the influence of
increasing southerly flow/moisture to be felt by Thursday
morning...with some elevated instability indicating that a
thunderstorm or two will be possible during the morning hours
Thursday. the instability builds further during
the daytime hours...we could see a few strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms develop as the CAP erodes...with good low level
shear present by 00Z Friday. With the potential for some strong to
severe late afternoon/evening convection...the local area
continues to be mentioned in a marginal risk for severe weather
Thursday...with a slight risk for severe weather now touching our
western counties.

As the main upper level low scoots to our south on Friday...expect
cooler air to advect in from the north along with continued
chances for precipitation on the north side of the low. While
conditions do not appear favorable for severe weather on
Friday...there is minimal instability just north of the low...and
kept the mention of an isolated thunderstorm across the majority
of the local area through 25/00Z.

Models continue to be in fair agreement with the longwave pattern
through the upcoming weekend...with shortwave ridging on Saturday
resulting in an end to precipitation along with a day of
seasonable temperatures. The subsequent upper level low will then
take a more southerly track on Sunday...possibly bringing
additional chances for showers and thunderstorms to the local
area...especially across portions of north central Kansas.
Thereafter model divergence becomes at least 2
additional systems attempt to cross the plains over the course of
next week. This will result in additional chances for
precipitation through the middle of next week...with a little snow
possibly mixed with rain across portions of the local area next
Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

An upper level disturbance brought a bit of precip to the area
this morning, but continues to slide off to the east, and have dry
conditions in the forecast for this TAF period. Have VFR
conditions through the daytime hours today, with deteriorating
ceilings as we get into the later evening/overnight hours, thanks
to increasing lower level moisture streaming in from the south.
Kept the ceilings MVFR, but there`s a possibility that IFR/LIFR
ceilings may develop as we get closer to sunrise tomorrow.




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