Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
FXUS63 KGID 260849
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
349 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016
Focus is on thunderstorm potential and timing later today and then
on the possibility for fog and reduced visibilities overnight.
The pattern aloft featured southwest flow across the Central Plains
ahead of an upper trough translating into the Rocky Mountain region.
At the surface, high pressure was oriented from southern South
Dakota across Nebraska with the surface boundary located to our
south across far southern Kansas into Oklahoma. Convection has been
ongoing across southern Kansas during the predawn hours, and this
activity is gradually lifting north and may edge toward or into our
southeast zones this morning and have carried small pops for this.
Heading into today the surface ridge axis will slide east with winds
transitioning southeast on the back side of the ridge and ahead of a
surface trough along the high plains. Aside from the potential for
some scattered showers/storms in our south this morning, much of the
daytime hours are looking fairly dry with cloud cover expected to
increase/thicken in the afternoon. The airmass is similar to 24
hours ago and temps in the mid 70s look reasonable with the
expected cloud cover.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
evening along a frontal boundary across central Kansas and to our
west along the high plains as the shortwave trough emerges from the
Rockies. The convection is forecast to spread eastward as the wave
moves crosses the plains today/tonight. In general, precipitation
chances look decent given the dynamics associated with the wave,
however some models suggest convection may become more scattered vs
widespread as it tracks east. Have made adjustments on pops and
timing of convection and will need to monitor how things evolve
today. A strong to severe storm is possible mainly for our southern
zones where instability and shear parameters are higher in the
vicinity of the southern boundary, with hail/wind the primary
hazards from the storms. Precipitable water values average an inch
to an inch and a half and locally heavy rainfall may accompany the
storms and lead to areas of lowland flooding. The shortwave trough
axis edges east of our cwa toward daybreak Saturday and any
lingering precipitation should be winding down and moving off to the
east early Saturday.
Have included fog in the forecast tonight as models are pretty
consistent on indicating the potential for fog and reduced
visibilities, especially across south central Nebraska. Have went
with the potential for visibilities below one mile and some areas
could see a period of dense fog.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016
This section will be updated/completed within the next
hour...please check back.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016
Although there are some breaks in cloud cover via satellite
imagery, in general clouds will increase and thicken during the
taf period with mvfr and potentially ifr cigs possible toward the
latter taf hours. Convection looks to be minimal through the
daytime and early evening hours, with chcs increasing near and
after dark as high plains storms track eastward. Monitoring for
vsby restrictions in br/fog just beyond 06z Saturday.