Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 210527
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1227 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Main forecast issue for the short term will the possibility of
precipitation late tonight into Tuesday morning.

Upper level zonal flow currently prevails across the area as the
United States is flanked by synoptic troughs to the east and west.
Low-amplitude ripples are about all that we can expect in the short
term, and the next one is a mid-level wave will be skirting the
Nebraska/South Dakota border late tonight into Tuesday morning. It
appears that the influence of this wave will remain far enough north
to perhaps only affect roughly the northern third of the CWA. The
Canadian, GFS, NAM, and WRF keep precipitation north of the CWA or
in our northern third. The ECMWF does paint a broader brush,
extending very light precip to the tri-cities Tuesday morning, but
this is quite the outlier. Soundings suggest that precipitation type
should remain as liquid. Little or no MUCAPE indicates that we
should not have to worry about thunder. The NMM WRF indicates some
very light qpf just southwest of the CWA Tuesday morning, but this
is an outlier solution to say the least, and this light qpf seems to
be the product of some upslope, and will likely result with stratus
more than light precip.

Tuesday will be noticeably cooler with highs in the mid 40s to lower
50s as 850 mb temps at 0C to 2C is expected, along with significant
sky cover.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Main forecast challenge will be determining chances of precip.

A modest low-level jet develops Tuesday night with the potential for
some late night warm air advection type showers near the theta-e
ridge axis. As for precip type, it would not be out of the
question that if some night-time precip fell that we would be cold
enough for a little snow, but this does not look significant at this
time. Warm nose could develop and give some sleet/freezing
rain, but confidence is not too high and will keep rain/snow for
now.

Then, a pattern shift is in store as upper flow becomes more
southwest by Wednesday night ahead of a significant shortwave
trough. There should be enough instability to keep thunder in the
forecast, and we will likely have some chances of rain related to
this wave Wednesday night into Friday. Superblend POPs in 80s and
90s seem a bit high considering ensemble numbers, and would like to
bump these down to likely 60/70 near the possible band of rain that
develops as other model solutions place the dry slot more into our
CWA and shoves much of the precip north. Will have to collaborate if
we wind up adjusting.

The surface low is forecast to track across the southern plains, and
will probably shunt any severe chances to the south of the CWA. This
wave is the first of a series that could bring us some rainfall,
with the following quickly hitting wave(s) arriving in the
Sunday/Monday time frame, when instability looks more limited, and
thunder will probably be left out of the forecast. Temperatures will
generally be near normal to about 5 to 10 degrees above average,
with no big extremes either side of average. As for precip type, it
would not be out of the question that if some night-time precip fell
that we would be cold enough for a little snow, but this does not
look significant at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

VFR conditions in the forecast for this TAF period. Couple of
small chances of precip in the area, at the the start and the end
of the period, just not enough confidence in any impact at the
terminals, so kept mention out. Winds look to remain east-
northeasterly through the period, becoming gusty near midday into
this afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein/Petr
AVIATION...ADP


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