Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 282354
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
654 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Rain chances remain the challenging issue for the forecast area.
In general...confidence is low even in the short term. Weak upper
wave on visible satellite looks decent...but has done little to
produce more than sprinkles. Greater coverage of storms in short
term is across areas of more instability to our east/south. More
than one model...HRRR/RAP/NAM...suggest redevelopment overnight
tonight with this system. NSSL WRF has nothing developing. Have
kept 30%-ish type rain chanced late tonight. Several models
suggest late Monday afternoon will bring a rise in shower and
storm coverage...similar to what is occur our south/east this
afternoon. There may some weak support aloft in the weakish
southwest upper level flow as well. Temperatures will be dependent
upon cloud cover...but have opted a bit above guidance in general.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

This period remains an elusive moving target as we have seen in
recent days. In general...there appears to a bit better...if you
want to call it that...rain chances in the mid week time frame as
opposed to the end of the week.

The region is initially influence by a weak southwest flow around
an upper level high pressure near Arkansas. We may also see
some remnants of an upper level low in the 4-corners regain
meander East as it dissipates. The combination of the two warrant
the slightly higher precipitation chances Tuesday and Wednesday,
although it seems there is no solid feature to latch onto other
than whatever late afternoon heating we have. Should note mid
level lapse rates are sub 6 degrees/KM and not conducive to
severe weather or even a lot of thunderstorm coverage. Have opted
for isolated nature of storms with any rain chances.

Best guess for now for Thursday/Friday is a weak upper ridge will
migrate across the Central Plains and thus lowering our rain
risk while bumping temperatures up a bit by Saturday. There has
been some long term consistency with a frontal boundary starting
to influence the region Labor Day weekend so precipitation chances
may sneak up a bit.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

VFR conditions are forecast. However, some numerical models
indicate that some storms could develop late overnight, and a VCTS
was thrown in for a couple of hours getting close to dawn.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
LONG TERM...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
AVIATION...Heinlein



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