546
FXUS63 KGID 011134
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
634 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect a gradual warming trend over the next couple of days
  with highs returning to the 90s by mid-week.

- Isolated chances for showers and storms are expected Tuesday
  night and Thursday.

- Better chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected
  Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Temperatures early this morning are fairly pleasant, ranging from
the mid-50s to the low 60s. Heading into the daytime hours, the
Great Plains are under northwest flow with an upper ridge over the
Rockies and surface high pressure over Kansas and Oklahoma. Winds
will be fairly light today, generally around 0-10mph. Expect dry
conditions during the daytime hours, with high temperatures climbing
into the mid-80s to low 90s.

Heading into this evening, a weak shortwave will slide across
central Nebraska, bringing limited moisture with it. There is a
small (15-20%) chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm popping
up and clipping the northern and western portions of our area this
evening into tonight. Widespread impacts are not expected at this
time. Any storms that develop may produce some gusty winds and brief
moderate to heavy rainfall. Precipitation chances diminish by
sunrise Wednesday.

The pattern persists into Wednesday, with the ridge beginning to
shift to the east later in the day. Slightly warmer temperatures are
expected across the region, topping out in the low to mid-90s.
Dry conditions are expected through the daytime and overnight hours.

Thursday, the upper ridge moves over central Nebraska. A weak wave
may move through the area during the day, bringing a non-zero chance
for an isolated thunderstorm popping up. The best chance of this
occurrence will be for areas along and south of the Kansas-Nebraska
state line.

The pattern shifts Friday into the weekend as the upper ridge pushes
to the east, out of the region. A disturbance north of the Four
Corners region will lift to the northeast, making it into Western
Nebraska around midday. Moisture will filter into the region from
the Baja Peninsula region. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
Friday afternoon through overnight. Storms should gradually end west
to east by daybreak on Saturday.

Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms continue Saturday
afternoon through Monday as a few disturbances enter the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period at both
terminals. Light and variable winds this morning will increase
later today from the south. Tonight, there is a chance that a
few isolated storms develop to the north and west of KEAR,
however, storms are not expected to impact the terminal at this
time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

3-5 inches of rain fell last night across much of Smith and
Jewell Counties in north central Kansas, most of which occurred
in only 6-9 hours. The heaviest 4-5" swath fell squarely on the
White Rock Creek watershed, and as a result, the creek remains
at or above flood stage near Burr Oak as of 4PM. It appears the
creek at the gauge site has crested, but expect only a slow fall
this evening thanks to fact that heavy rain fell along nearly
the entire reach. Still a lot of water to move into Lovewell
Reservoir, which has already risen by about a foot.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wekesser
AVIATION...Wekesser
HYDROLOGY...Thies