Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 211004
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
504 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE HEAT IS HERE AND HOT WEATHER PRETTY MUCH SUMS UP THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FM
THE DESERT SW...NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES AVERAGED IN THE 70S WHICH IS QUITE THE CHANGE
FROM A FEW MORNINGS AGO WHEN READINGS WERE IN THE 50S.  SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE AT THE SFC WITH LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED IN EASTERN WY AND A TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
NEB/KS.

H85 TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S EAST/WEST ARE PROGGED THIS
AFTN AND WILL SPELL NOTHING BUT HOT SUMMER WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. SEE
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM OUR CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS TODAY (95 TO
105F) AS ALL MODELS SHOW INDICATE MAX TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S
TO OVER THE CENTURY MARK.  THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC THAT A HIGHER
DEWPOINT MAY HOLD A MAX TEMP DOWN SLIGHTLY...OR THERE IS SOME
INDICATION BY MODELS THAT HIGH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE
LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SW MAY INCREASE AND HAVE A SIMILAR EFFECT.
EVEN IF TEMPS ARE A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST IT
IS STILL PLENTY HOT AND THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR TODAY
IS WARRANTED WITH HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 105F.

HEADING INTO THE LATE AFTN OR MORE SO INTO THE EVENING AN ISOLATED
TSTM JUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO STRONG HEATING IN THE VCNTY OF THE SFC BOUNDARY/TROUGH. IF
STORMS DEVELOP EXPECT THEY WILL STRUGGLE WITH HOT MID LEVEL TEMPS OF
16C IN PLACE AT H7.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

CERTAINLY THE PRIMARY ISSUE THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS THE
LIKELIHOOD OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (105+) HEAT INDEX VALUES
BEING MET AGAIN ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH UNLIKE TODAY THESE 105+
READINGS SHOULD MAINLY ONLY MATERIALIZE WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST 1/2
OF THE CWA. OF COURSE...IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY WARM/HOT IN THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 AS WELL...BUT THERE HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO PEAK SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...MORE SO IN THE 95-103
RANGE THANKS TO SLIGHT COOLING USHERED IN BEHIND AN INVADING COLD
FRONT. SPEAKING OF HEAT ADVISORY...WE CONSIDERED TACKING ONE FOR
TUESDAY ONTO THE EXISTING HEADLINE FOR TODAY...BUT GIVEN THAT THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF ADVISORY-WORTHY HEAT INDEX IS STILL A BIT IN
QUESTION...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND LET DAY SHIFT PIN
DOWN THE DETAILS A BIT BETTER. OF COURSE...OPINIONS ON HOW TO
HANDLE THIS DO VARY AMONGST LOCAL OFFICES...BUT DESPITE NOT
HAVING A FORMAL HEADLINE OUT FOR TUESDAY YET...ITS NOT LIKE THE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A SURPRISE...AND WE CONTINUE TO CARRY THESE
CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). STAYING WITH
THE TEMPERATURE/HEAT INDEX THEME BEYOND TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD FORTUNATELY APPEARS TO BE VOID OF ADVISORY-LEVEL HEAT
INDEX CONCERNS AS ACTUAL TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AVERAGE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF LATE-JULY AVERAGES WHICH LOCALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 80-LOW 90S. THAT BEING SAID...THE FORECAST DOES CONTAIN
HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO AROUND 100 DEGREES MAINLY IN KS ZONES FOR
FRIDAY SO THIS BEARS WATCHING IN CASE IT TRENDS HIGHER. THE
OVERALL-COOLEST DAY OF THE LONG-TERM APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND MAYBE SIMILAR READINGS FOR SUNDAY
AS WELL ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER AT THAT TIME RANGE.

TURNING TO RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...CERTAINLY THE MAIN THING
IS THAT THERE ARE NO PARTICULAR PERIODS THAT STAND OUT AS HAVING A
HEIGHTENED PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND/OR AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT. IN CONTRAST TO 24 HOURS AGO...ONLY 5 OF THESE 11
FORECAST PERIODS CONTAIN LOWER-END 20-30 POPS...AND EVEN THEN FOR
MAINLY JUST SOUTHERN OR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON-NIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE WED NIGHT-THURS NIGHT TIME
FRAME. CERTAINLY OTHER PERIODS CANNOT BE GUARANTEED DRY...BUT
THERE IS JUST NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT HIGHER THAN SILENT 10
PERCENT POPS AT THIS STAGE OF THE GAME. AS FOR STRONG-SEVERE
POTENTIAL...CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT IN THE NEARER-TERM WILL
GET THE BALL ROLLING WITH A GENERIC STRONG STORM MENTION IN
SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TUES AFTERNOON-TUES NIGHT IF ANYTHING CAN
MANAGE TO POP THE STRONG CAP NEAR/SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. ALONG THESE LINES...SPC AT LEAST CLIPS
THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH A 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROB ON THE DAY 2
OUTLOOK.

TURNING TO THE DETAILS A BIT MORE IN MAINLY 24-HOUR BLOCKS...

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THE POSSIBLE/LIKELY HEAT ADVISORY ISSUE
WAS ALREADY COVERED ABOVE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE
EXPANSIVE /NEARLY 600 DECAMETER/ HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
FIRMLY IN PLACE SPINNING CLOCKWISE AS IT EDGES NORTHWARD MORE OVER
COLORADO OUT OF NM. AS IT NUDGES NORTH THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
ITS REACH WILL BE FLATTENED A BIT BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING
SOUTHEAST ALONG A DAKOTAS-IA TRACK...WHICH IN TURN WILL TURN THE
FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA CONSIDERABLY MORE NORTHERLY THAN
WESTERLY. AT THE SURFACE...THE FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
DRIVEN SOUTHWARD BY THIS NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE LOCALLY...AS THIS BOUNDARY FIRST SLIPS INTO NORTHERN ZONES
AROUND SUNRISE AND STEADILY TRACKS SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY...REACHING NORTH CENTRAL KS BY LATE IN THE DAY. IN ITS
WAKE...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON NORTH BREEZES
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY PER
THE NAM SOLUTION. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO ACTUAL HIGH
TEMPS...WITH A MODEST RANGE FROM LOW 90S FAR NORTH...MID 90S
CENTRAL AND 100-102 IN KS ZONES. DESPITE THE GRADUAL COOLING
BEHIND THE FRONT...DEWPOINTS WILL PROBABLY BE MAXIMIZED
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INTO GENERALLY THE LOW TO POSSIBLY
MID-70S...KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY OPPRESSIVE. PRECIP-
WISE...ALTHOUGH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS EVIDENCED BY VALUES UP AROUND
14-15C AT 700MB SHOULD LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...THE STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO POP SOMETHING MAINLY IN OUR
KS ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND HAVE INTRODUCED
AND/OR ADJUSTED SLIGHT POPS TO FOCUS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE STATE
LINE. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE 00Z 4KM-WRF NMM REFLECTIVITY PROG
KEEPS IT BONE-DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/7PM SO THIS IS A FAIRLY
LOW-CONFIDENCE POP. HOWEVER...IF SOMETHING DOES HAPPEN TO
GO...EVEN IN ELEVATED FASHION AFTER DARK...THE PRESENCE OF 2000+
J/KG CAPE COULD GET SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE ACTIVITY GOING
DESPITE FAIRLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AVERAGING LESS THAN 25KT.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...HAVE LEFT THIS PERIOD VOID OF PRECIP
MENTION FOR NOW...DESPITE VARIOUS MODELS CLIPPING AT LEAST THE
EDGES OF THE CWA WITH QPF...ESPECIALLY THE GFS WHICH LOOKS A BIT
OVERDONE WITH QPF ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO A SUSPICIOUSLY STRONG
LOOKING MODELED VORTICITY MAX MOVING IN. AT ANY RATE...WARM TEMPS
ALOFT/CAPPING REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS THE MAIN
INFLUENCE ALTHOUGH ITS CENTER DOES SLIP SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NM/AZ AREA WED NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS
WILL PREVAIL LOCALLY IN GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...AND NUDGED HIGHS DOWN ANOTHER DEGREE IN SOME
SPOTS...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM MID 80S NORTHEAST TO LOW 90S
SOUTH.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THE LARGE RIDGE WEAKENS VERY SLIGHTLY AS
IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THE GFS
CONTINUED TO LOOK OVERDONE IN ITS QPF PRODUCTION LOCALLY...BUT
MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT POPS IN EASTERN ZONES THURS NIGHT WHILE
LEAVING THE DAY DRY. NUDGED UP HIGHS VERY SLIGHTLY...AIMING FOR
UPPER 80S-MID 90S...BUT IF THE ECMWF IS ONTO ANYTHING IT MIGHT END
UP BEING ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES HOTTER THAN THIS IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
IN THE PRESENCE OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. SOMETHING TO WATCH.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...PER THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
FLATTENS A BIT MORE MAINLY JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA IN
RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHED
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA...BUT TEMPS WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH
HIGHS AIMED SOMEWHERE IN THE 90S NEARLY CWA-WIDE. KEPT 20-30 POPS
GOING IN EASTERN ZONES...BUT LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT MUCH OF
THIS PRECIP COULD REMAIN SAFELY TO THE EAST.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY DAYTIME...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME
SPOTTY PRECIP BUT NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT TO PUT POPS INTO A
CURRENTLY-DRY FORECAST. THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY EXPANDS
SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST AGAIN AS IT RE-ORIENTS INTO MORE OF A
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST FASHION OVER THE ROCKIES-SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER...PREVAILING EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO KEEP
TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES...AND HAVE HIGHS FAIRLY
SIMILAR BOTH DAYS BETWEEN THE MID-80S AND LOW 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING QUIET FOR THE
TAFS. A PERIOD OF LLWS IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND SFC WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OR SO. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
15KTS AND THE HOT CONDITIONS REALLY SETTLE IN. MODELS ARE HIT OR
MISS ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND ONLY
CARRIED A VCTS FOR KEAR ATTM.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...FAY


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