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000
FXUS63 KGID 102148
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
348 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

MORNING MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS...AND A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER THE PACIFIC JUST SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA. A SUBTLE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS ALSO NOTED OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA AND CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN. MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS WELL AS THE MID TO LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY MAXES OUT AT AROUND 100KTS NEAR 300MB PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA
FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED MID
LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING ALONG AND NEAR THE MID LEVEL JET AXIS
FROM SOUTHWESTERN CANADA INTO PORTIONS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE
AND THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS INCREASED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH ARE
INFILTRATING MUCH OF NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
IS ALSO NOTED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS
OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL
ALBERTA AND CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA...SHOULD RESPOND BY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ALSO SWEEPING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR
CWA TONIGHT AS WELL. SO WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA
WILL START FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...THE FLOW WILL
QUICKLY BECOME MORE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY POST-FROPA TONIGHT. THIS
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS
SURFACE RIDGING CLEARS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THUS
ALLOWING FOR SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA BY
00Z THURSDAY.

IT APPEARS MID LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION AND RESULTANT OMEGA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. THIS IS A SOLUTION SUPPORTED
BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND SREF-MEAN WHICH
ALL SUGGEST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA...THUS PRESENTING LITTLE MORE THAN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER NORTH/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRIMARY
THERMAL ADVECTION AXIS COULD CLIP OUR EXTREME NORTH/NORTHEAST
PRIMARILY DURING THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME...A SOLUTION PRIMARILY
BEING SUGGESTED BY THE EC. SO ALTHOUGH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS
NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES AND
WILL GO AHEAD WITH A MENTION OF FLURRIES ACROSS OUR
NORTH/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD
THEN PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.

THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW A
COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS INTO THE AREA...THUS PROVIDING SOMEWHAT
COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO THIS MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 ARE
FORECAST AS A RESULT. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO INFILTRATE THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WILL LIKELY
BE TOO LITTLE TOO LATE AS THE COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS PROVIDES
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TOWARDS THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SINCE THE
WARM ADVECTION WILL NOT START UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WARM
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND WITH WEST
WINDS THERE WILL BE SOME DOWN SLOPE TO THE WINDS. THIS WILL HELP
TO WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE THE
SNOWPACK WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING AS MUCH AS
POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MELTING ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THERE IS A BROAD TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WORKS
ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS...BUT BEHIND
THE FRONT THERE IS SOME COOLER AIR THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THE PAST WEEK...BUT WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. EXPECT THERE TO BE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THIS WAVE...BUT EXPECT THERE TO BE CLOUDS. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COOLER AIR
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AS A COOL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT THE WINDS TURN
TO THE SOUTH AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS
HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE SNOW MELTS
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT DROP BELOW
8000FT AGL. THAT BEING SAID...A BAND OF STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BEHIND A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL CLEAR THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANY SUCH STRATUS
WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH NOT BY FAR...OF GRI TONIGHT. THAT
BEING SAID...SOME GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THIS STRATUS WILL INDEED
IMPACT GRI. GIVEN THAT THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRATUS
WILL NOT IMPACT GRI...WILL GO AHEAD WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
HOWEVER TO ENSURE STRATUS DOES NOT ATTEMPT A MORE SOUTHWEST TRACK
WHICH WOULD PLACE IT OVER GRI...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 04Z AND 13Z.
THE SURFACE WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST...TRANSITION TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST POST-FROPA
TONIGHT...AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGING CLEARS THE AREA. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED AT GRI THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BRYANT