Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 291054
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
554 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WE STILL LOOK ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A COLD FRONT
SWEPT THROUGH AND WE WILL HAVE A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR
AWHILE. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP SOONER IN
OUR SOUTH BEHIND SOME DECAYING SHOWERS. THEN MOST OF THE AREAS WILL
DROP THIS AFTERNOON...SENDING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN. I
ESSENTIALLY CONVERTED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH INTO A RED FLAG WARNING
AND EXPANDED THE TIMES A BIT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
IN...EXPECT WIND TO DECREASE. WENT WITH THE NMM FOR HIGHS TODAY.
KEPT LOWS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR DEWPOINTS...I USED
THE RAP AND MIXED DOWN FROM 800 MB FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND USED
STRAIGHT RAP THIS MORNING. USED CONSRAW FOR DEWPOINTS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER STILL
FOR TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE DAY SHOULD BE FURTHER NORTH...BUT
DURING THE EVENING THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING
AT MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. BY LATER IN THE EVENING THE CAPE FALLS
OFF AND EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EITHER WAY THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. HAVE KEPT IT RAIN FOR NOW...BUT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING FREEZING...THERE COULD BE
SOME SNOW MIXED IN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA AND THERE IS WARM ADVECTION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WIND. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE AN ISSUE ANY LONGER. WIND WILL REALLY PICK UP BEHIND A COLD
FRONT FOR SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A RANDOM DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HAVE POSTED A RED FLAG WARNING GENERALLY E OF HWY 183. THIS IS THE
SAME AREA AS THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM YESTERDAY. THERE IS LITTLE
DOUBT THAT MINIMUM RH DROPS INTO THE TEENS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 9S AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR MINIMUM RH DROPPING
BELOW 20% FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS.
DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE A
COMPLICATING FACTOR. THE LATEST DATA SUGGEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92 IS THE BEST SHOT AT THIS...BUT DECIDED TO BE MORE LIBERAL
WITH THE RFW AS NEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTH HAVE POSTED RED FLAG WARNINGS
AS WELL...AND ALTHOUGH WE TECHNICALLY MIGHT NOT MAKE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CRITERION...ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOST LIKELY EXHIBIT
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-061>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ006-007-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
FIRE WEATHER...HEINLEIN



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