Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 242303
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
603 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BE ON
THE MOVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT AND
FILL AS IT REACHES CENTRAL NEBRASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTH OF THE MAIN LOW AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THRU MONDAY.

CURRENTLY OUR REGION REMAINS SOCKED IN WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
HOWEVER CIGS HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT/RAISE. WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER IN PLACE...INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER AND MODELS VARY IN
SOLUTIONS ON CONVECTION INITIATION LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
THE DRY SLOT WILL WORK INTO WESTERN KS ALLOWING FOR BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE MAIN SFC LOW REMAINS
ORIENTED IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES LOOKS THE MOST FAVORABLE. THE NAM TRIES
TO DEVELOP STORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
AND CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THIS EITHER. CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY ATTEMPT TO SKIRT OUR SOUTHEAST CWA LATER
TONIGHT BUT WE GENERALLY SHOULD BE THE BUFFER OR ON THE EDGE OF
THIS. THE INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT AND WHILE THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS FAVOR A POSSIBLE STRONG STORM BUT NOT LOOKING FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ATTM. GENERALLY EXPECTING PCPN CHCS TO INCREASE
MORE SO AFTER DARK OR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM
MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON WHETHER OR NOT WE MAY SEE FOG
AGAIN AND IN A PERSISTENT PATTERN IN PRESENCE OF LLVL MOISTURE
WILL CARRY AT LEAST A PATCHY FOG MENTION.

THE FORECAST TURNS MORE INTERESTING ON MONDAY WITH BETTER DYNAMICS
ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW REACHES NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AFTERNOON
TSTM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW LONG ANY LINGERING
MORNING CONVECTION LASTS. THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEB INTO EASTERN KS ON SUNDAY WITH
SHEAR AVERAGING 30KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH
THE BETTER INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND LIFT PROGGED AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
CROSSES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

INITIALLY...WILL BE WRAPPING UP SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY EVENING WITH MARGINAL SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY AS A WEAK
FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLIDE EAST. FOCUS AREA SHOULD BE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281...AND GENERALLY ON THE WAY EAST BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT
HAVE INCLUDED 30-50 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE PRIMARILY DRY...ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY SLIPS EAST. HONESTLY...THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN IS VERY SLIM.

BY LATE WEDNESDAY...UPPER ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AND TEAMS UP WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO PUSH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES ARE MUCH HIGHER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND REALLY
LAST INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS
THIS PERIOD WILL BE WET WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH
AND EVENTUALLY COOLER AIR BY NEXT WEEKEND. DIFFERENCES APPEAR
WITH GFS CUTTING OFF THE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT...AND OTHER MODELS
SORT OF MOVING THE UPPER ENERGY THROUGH. ITS NOT REALLY A BIG
ISSUE AT THIS POINT...BUT WORTH WATCHING THROUGH THE WEEK TO
SEE IF THIS TURNS INTO A MORE PROLONGED EVENT LIKE THE GFS SUGGESTS.
TEMPS WARM NICELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT EVEN WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES...
BUT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

PERSISTENT STRATUS CONTINUES IMPACTING THE REGION...AND GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AN MVFR CEILING WILL BE REALIZED TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH BKN010 02-18Z...FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS TO FINISH THE TAF PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN
FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...SUSTAINED AT 6-10KTS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF SUCH ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED IS TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN EITHER TAF. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...BRYANT


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