Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 250600
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1200 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 342 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Satellite and upper air data showing the main low/trough axis
which  brought accumulating snowfall to the CWA continuing to
slide east across the Plains this afternoon. A narrow band of
heavier snow shifted south through mainly SC NE this morning, but
for the most part snowfall has come to an end across the CWA. At
the surface, as expected, gusty north-northwest winds have been in
place behind the cold front, with CAA and a tightened pressure
gradient. Sustained speeds have generally been in the 15 to 25 MPH
(though were higher at times), with gusts of 30-35 MPH.
Temperatures haven`t gone much of anywhere today, sitting at mid
afternoon in the mid 20s to near 30. For the rest of this
afternoon, what lingering light snow there is will come to an end,
with dry conditions through tonight. Winds will remain gusty, but
as surface high pressure settles into the area from the north,
speeds will taper off to closer to 10 MPH for tonight.

Looking ahead to this weekend, the current forecast remains dry.
Models are in good agreement showing upper level northwesterly
flow developing across the region tonight into Saturday in the
wake of this latest system. There is the potential for a weak wave
to cross the area on Saturday, but without much moisture to work
with, not expecting any precipitation. Upper level flow looks to
turn more zonal Sat night into Sunday, as another shortwave
disturbance looks to cross the region. Again, there`s little
moisture for it to work with, so kept the forecast dry, though
some light precip may develop just south of the CWA. Will see how
things trend. During the day on Saturday, the area of sfc high
pressure will slide SSE through the Plains, centered to our SE by
00Z Sun. Southerly winds return on the backside of the high, with
speeds on the lighter side, around 10 MPH. Confidence in temps for
Sat is not high due to the recent snowfall, but the current
forecast calls for lower 30s in the north to lower 40s across the
south. More westerly winds are expected for Sunday, with a slight
bump up in highs into the mid 30s to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 342 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

The forecast for the daytime hours on Monday is dry, with a little
more uncertainty as we get into Monday night through Tuesday
night. Upper level flow becomes more southwesterly Sun
night/Monday, as another system is digging into the Rockies. There
will be the potential for a couple quick moving shortwave
disturbances to pass through the area, one Monday night into
Tuesday morning, the next Tuesday night. Kept PoPs on the low
side, as there are some differences between models to be worked
out, including whether that second wave results in any
precipitation. At this point, keeping precip type simple with a
mix of ra/sn. Temperatures look to climb back near/above normal,
with Monday in the mid 40s to lower 50s and Tuesday in the lower
40s/lower 50s.

For the second half of the week Wed-Fri, dry conditions remain in
the forecast, with models in pretty good agreement showing
northwesterly flow returning in the upper levels, and an overall
lack of notable disturbances moving through. 40s/50s remain in the
forecast for highs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

VFR conditions are expected. Some models are advertising IFR/MVFR
visibility through most of the forecast period, but this is being
ignored as a surface high is in place, and snow cover is likely
causing issues with numerical model forecasts.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...Heinlein



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