Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 240832
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
332 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

A surface ridge will move through the area during the day today,
which will allow for a very pleasant day. Temperatures will be a few
degrees below normal, but will still reach the upper 60s to near 70
degrees. This will be coupled with light northerly winds,
shifting to the south during the afternoon and mostly clear skies.

Southerly winds will increase tonight as the pressure gradient
tightens. This will keep low temperatures in the upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Overview...We are getting into the heart of our severe weather
season and the overall pattern is not very favorable for much severe
weather or at least not widespread significant severe weather. There
will be some sporadic chances of showers and thunderstorms off and
on through the period, but Friday night appears to be the only
pretty decent chance of seeing more widespread appreciable rainfall
at this point in time. Outside of Friday night, this will likely be
somewhat of a drying out period for most areas after last weeks
rains. Temperatures should be outstanding with nearly perfect highs
generally in the 70s.

Thursday into Thursday night...There could be a few showers or even
just sprinkles around on Thursday during the day, but 90 percent of
the area will likely be dry. Elevated thunderstorms will form during
the late afternoon and evening hours over eastern Colorado and they
will track east through the evening and overnight hours. The better
moisture to support these storms will be across Kansas and it seems
like most of these storms will die out before they reach us, or at
least seriously lose their punch by the time they get here. The
Kansas zones stand the best chance of having a few storms make it
this far east before dying out.

Friday into Friday night...Severe thunderstorms will likely form
over northeastern Colorado Friday afternoon and will track east
during the evening and overnight hours. There will be a much better
low level jet nosing into this convection Friday night than we
expect Thursday night and thus these storms Friday night are more
likely to hold together as they slide east. However, by the time
these storms reach our forecast area it will be very late evening or
even after midnight Friday night and thus they will likely be more
elevated and lose a good deal of their strength by that time, thus
any severe threat will be rather limited, but appreciable moisture
is certainly possible.

Saturday through Tuesday...Could see some lingering showers and
thunderstorms around primarily Saturday morning and then most
locations will see only very minor if any chance for rain as we head
into Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday, which again look beautiful.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Quiet, VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Skies will
gradually clear out overnight. Light winds will gradually shift to
the south tomorrow.

We could approach LLWS criteria tomorrow night, but this is just
beyond the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Mangels


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