Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 240536
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1236 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND INTERMITTENTLY WET CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THRU SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE ROCKIES. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVING
IN HAS HELD TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TODAY...WITH READINGS WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WHICH ARE IN THE MID 70S FOR LATTER PART OF
MAY.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND PERIODS
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO VARYING ROUNDS OF RAINFALL THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE FIRST ROUND IS MOVING THRU TODAY...THEN ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH AND LIFT
ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...AIDED BY A 30 TO 40 KT LLVL JET. BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT...INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER AND JUST AVERAGES
AROUND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AND WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
OKLAHOMA LIFTS NORTH THROUGH KANSAS TONIGHT AND INTO NEBRASKA ON
SUNDAY. WINDS TRANSITION SOUTHERLY AS THE FRONT LIFTS AND
WARMER...MOIST AIR ADVECTS NORTH. SUNDAY COULD SEE LINGERING
RAINFALL OR DRIZZLE FOR TIME IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUD COVER HOLDS
FIRM.

TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE TRICKY WITH CLOUDY SKIES BUT DO EXPECT CLOUD
HEIGHTS TO RAISE DURING THE DAY. MODEL TRENDS LIFT THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF OUR CWA WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY REACHING
THE 70S FOR HIGHS BUT HAVE CONCERNS THAT MODELS MAY BE TOO QUICK
WITH THIS AND CLOUD COVER MAY HOLD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S. CLOUDS
MAY BREAK ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING WHICH COULD
RESULT IN A LATE DAY TEMP JUMP BUT HARD TO TELL HOW THINGS WILL
UNFOLD AND WILL GO WITH AN ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR HIGHS.

THE DRY SLOT WORKING IN FROM THE WEST AND THE DRY LINE WILL LIKELY
FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTN/EVE WITH INITIATION
FOCUS WEST OF OUR CWA. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD BE
OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA THRU THE AFTN...HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW POP AS
SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A POP UP STORM OR
SPRINKLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ONE WOULD THINK THIS PERIOD
WOULD COME MORE IN FOCUS WITH TIME...BUT THAT ISN/T THE CASE. RIGHT
NOW...THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A GENERAL 25-
40 PERCENT SHOWER/STORM CHANCE WITH NO SOLID TIME FRAME FOR HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL. QUESTION HOW FAR EAST ANY CONVECTION FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD WORK EAST GIVEN THE LACK OF MUCH
EASTWARD PUSH OF UPPER ENERGY TO THE WEST. ON MONDAY...SOME AREAS
WILL AGAIN BATTLE LOW CLOUDS...THUS IMPACTING HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. BULK SHEAR IS WEAK AGAIN...AND ITS JUST NOT CLEAR HOW
FAR EAST THE WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE. THAT IS PROBABLY THE
MAIN RISK AREA FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH ITS HARD TO SAY JUST WHERE IT WILL BE AT WHAT TIME. IN
GENERAL DO BELIEVE ITS PROBABLY MORE DRY THAN WET...AND THUS FAVOR
THE LOWER END PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THAT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO SNEAK UP CLOSE TO SEASON NORMALS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND
PROBABLY TURN OUT TO BE THE NICEST PERIOD OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS EXPECTED...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY /DURING THE DAY/ LOOK TO BE
THE DRIEST DAYS...ALTHOUGH A HIT OR MISS SHOWER/STORM IS STILL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WON/T QUITE BE PAST THE AREA. BOTH DAYS SHOULD SEE
SUNSHINE THOUGH AND TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE SEASONAL 70S.

THIS IS NOT A PATTERN CHANGE HOWEVER...AS ALREADY BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WE WILL HAVE AN UPPER WAVE MOVE INTO THE REGION AND LIKELY
PUSH FRONT RANGE STORM DEVELOPMENT EAST INTO A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
JET REGION. AS THURSDAY/FRIDAY EVOLVE..THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT IN
MODELS THAT A TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE GFS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF THE LOW GETTING CUT-OFF IN THE AREA. ALL
THIS SPELLS INCREASED RAIN CHANGES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ITS PROBABLY
NOT A COMPLETE RAINOUT...BUT CERTAINLY SEVERAL PERIODS OF
POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER. IT IS TOUCH MORE UNSTABLE THAN THIS
WEEKEND...BUT NOTHING NOW SUGGESTS STRONG INSTABILITY. SHEAR
PROFILES ALSO APPEAR A BIT WEAK. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATE IN THE WEEK IS ISOLATED AT BEST...AT THIS POINT.
EARLY SIGNS OF A COOL DOWN BACK BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND AND
THE TEMPERATURES WILL REFLECT THIS EARLY NOTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

IFR TO LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE REGION. MAY EVEN SEE SOME MVFR OR IFR VSBYS DEVELOP IN
AREAS OF BR/-DZ...BUT OPTED TO STICK TO THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE OF
GUIDANCE UNTIL MORE WIDESPREAD BR IS ACTUALLY OBSERVED.
OTHERWISE...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT SOME DURING THEY DAY ON
SUNDAY AS THE WINDS SHIFT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...BUT STILL
REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A SHRA OR EVEN TSRA
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PLATTE RIVER REMAINS THE PRIMARY HYDROLOGIC CONCERN
AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN FLOOD AT SOME LOCATIONS...OR NEAR
FLOOD STAGE AT OTHER LOCATIONS THROUGH THE END OF MAY. CREST
APPROACHING GRAND ISLAND AT THIS TIME...WITH FLOODING AROUND
EXIT 312 SOUTH OF GRAND ISLAND LIKELY AT ITS HIGHEST POINT THIS
EVENING. THE RIVER WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD AT KEARNEY FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE EVEN THOUGH IT WILL DROP A BIT DAY-BY-DAY.
FLOODING WARNINGS RUN MUCH OF THE RIVER UPSTREAM OF ABOUT CENTRAL
CITY. CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS IN A SMALL 2ND CREST AROUND THE END OF
THE MONTH...AND THIS MAY BE PUSHED A TOUCH HIGHER BY SOME ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IN NORTHEAST CO AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ANTICIPATED RIVER LEVELS...
ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD PUSH THE 2ND CREST UP A BIT. RIGHT
NOW...IT IS FORECAST TO NOT BE AS HIGH AS CURRENT CREST ONGOING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...ROSSI


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