Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 221628
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1128 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Weak frontal boundary is currently located just north of I-70 across
central KS at this time, from just south of KRSL to just north of
KSLN. A wind shift and slightly cooler air is located to the north
of the front.  Max temps this afternoon may be a little tricky, in
and close to the front, with locations just south of the front
potentially getting very hot today. KSLN is already 97 with a going
forecast of 109. This looks okay for now, unless front oozes a
little further south. May need to adjust max temps down some at KRSL
with front already to the south of this location, but will keep
current forecast of 105 in place for now.

Next concern will be late afternoon and early evening convective
chances along this boundary. Expecting airmass along the front to
become moderately unstable today, with an elevated mixed layer will
keep convective chances capped off until late this afternoon or
possibly until after 00z. Have some slight pops increasing along
Interstate 70 by around 22z and think this timing looks okay.  Not
expecting alot of convection to develop along the front, as
convergence isnt that impressive, but think that afternoon heating
will be enough for scattered convection this evening. Bufkit
soundings suggest a strong to severe damaging wind potential give
DCAPE values around 2000 j/kg and inverted-V sounding from dry low
layers and very warm expected max temps. Not expecting widespread
severe storms given bulk shear less than 20 kts. Will have to watch
the heavy rainfall potential as the slow movement of the storms may
lead to localized flooding chances.  Propagation vectors suggest
very slow movement.

Ketcham

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Outflow boundary/bore/gravity wave is currently approaching from
western KS, stemming from earlier thunderstorm activity across the
High Plains. Short-range guidance suggests this feature will
loose steam as it approaches central KS early this morning. It
likely will not be strong/deep enough to erode inhibition for
thunderstorm development early this morning across central KS, or
hamper today`s heat.

Today will be the last HOT day across the region, with
downslope/compressional warming ahead of the approaching cold
front. Widespread triple digit heat is once again expected, so
will continue the excessive heat warning into this evening all
areas. Wichita, Russell and Salina will be flirting with records
highs in the 106-110 degree range. Temperatures will "cool" into
the 90s Sunday-Monday...closer to normal for this time of year.

The approaching cold front from the north will serve as a focus
for isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon
through tonight across mainly the northern half of KS. Activity
may be aided by a convectively-induced upper disturbance
approaching from the west. These periodic hit-or-miss storm
chances are expected to continue through Monday night or Tuesday,
as the frontal zone stalls out near the KS/OK border Sunday, and
gradually dissipates and retreats back north early in the week.
All-in-all, widespread or organized severe weather appears
unlikely given weak flow aloft and weak forcing, although isolated
occurrences of damaging winds, marginally severe hail and heavy
rain are likely given the expected thermodynamic environment in
vicinity of the frontal zone. Most probable times for storms each
day will be during the afternoon through evening hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Medium range consensus supports a return to hot temperatures
Tuesday/Wednesday and possibly Thursday as well, as the upper
ridge builds once again across Mid- America. Triple digit heat is
possible. The heat may be short- lived though, as medium range
consensus progresses another cold front into the region late week.
A major cool down appears unlikely, with readings probably
cooling closer to normal in the 90s. This front could also serve
as a focus for periodic hit-or- miss storm chances once again
across the region late week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Timing of front will be the main challenge. Appears likely that at
least isolated storms will develop late afternoon/early evening
in the vicinity of front. Will go with VCTS at KRSL/KSLN and
possibly as far south as KGBD and KHUT. NAM hinting at MVFR
ceilings behind the front in Central KS, but this is likely
dependent on extent of the storms. -Howerton


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT   105  75  96  73 /  10  20  30  20
Hutchinson     106  73  94  71 /  10  20  20  20
Newton         105  73  93  71 /  10  30  30  20
ElDorado       102  73  94  71 /  10  20  30  20
Winfield-KWLD  103  75  96  73 /  10  10  30  30
Russell        105  71  92  69 /  20  40  20  10
Great Bend     106  71  93  70 /  10  30  20  20
Salina         109  73  95  72 /  20  40  20  10
McPherson      105  73  94  71 /  10  30  20  10
Coffeyville    100  75  96  73 /  10  20  30  30
Chanute        100  74  93  72 /  10  20  30  20
Iola           100  73  93  72 /  10  30  30  20
Parsons-KPPF   100  75  95  73 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-
033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Ketcham
SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...PJH



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