Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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656
FXUS63 KICT 271741
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1241 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Scattered showers continue to fester just ahead of a remnant outflow
boundary across the Flint HIlls at this time. This is also located
along the axis of 200% of normal precipitable water values located
across SE KS. Current short range models suggest that convection
over SE KS will diminish as the morning progresses as the PW axis
begins to shift a little further to the SE by this afternoon.  So
expect a shift to the SE for any afternoon isolated storm chances in
SE KS probably into NE OK.

Next concern will be to the NW of the forecast in North Central KS
as a weak outflow/surface boundary is expected to be located. Expect
deep convection, possibly severe to develop along this boundary late
this afternoon into early this evening, as a shortwave currently
moving into the panhandle of Neb drops E-SE. An unstable airmass
will be located just ahead of this boundary with SBCAPE values
expected to be 2500-3000 J/KG and bulk shear values around 30-40
kts. Damaging downburst wind gusts appear to be the main concern,
given wide surface dewpoint depressions expected, but cannot rule
out a quarter size hail threat with a bigger storm. Most of this
activity will be just to the NW of KRSL, but could see some of this
convection propagate SE late this evening possibly into portions
of Central KS.

Also expecting that this afternoon convection may develop/evolve
into some sort of S-SE moving complex of storms (MCS) late this
evening/overnight, as the convection builds upslope towards KGLD.
Path of this MCS will possibly be over the western sections of the
forecast area, generally W of I-135 late tonight into early thu
morning.

Ketcham

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Today-tonight:
Anticipating confidence to increase for this period relative to
24 hours ago, but opposite has happened. Ongoing weakening storms
in the vicinity of KHLC will likely push outflow into Central KS.
Meanwhile RAP/NAM/HRRR all generate fairly impressive CAPE and
very little/no CINH by 15-18 UTC in Southern KS, although just
arriving 0600 UTC NAM has much different solution. Narrow mid
level ridge will likely further weaken ongoing storms, now primary
being fed off cold pool and veering 850MB-700MB winds. Chances for
precipitation look slim/mainly north of I-70 at 1200 UTC and
suspect surface boundary will hang up somewhere in central KS this
morning. Think this could provide focus for storms to develop this
afternoon, or they may wait until near sunset when upper trough
approaches. The other unknown is potential for storms to develop
in Flint Hills/Southeast KS in deeper moisture. It is not obvious
that there will be anything to initiate this convection until
later tonight, barring some sort of gravity wave/bore. Models are
also hinting at storms behind the upper trough late tonight, which
is possible, but would be dependent on good 850MB-700MB warm air
advection. This may be dependent on how widespread/robust initial
storms are. Sufficient CAPE for severe storms appears likely with
damaging winds being the primary threat.

Thursday-Friday:
Appears that precipitation will be limited to areas east of I-35
during the day, either with lingering morning precipitation or
isolated afternoon storms in deeper moisture. The former seems
more likely. Models tonight are playing up the MCS potential for
Thursday night mainly tracking west of I-35, and then again Friday
night mainly east of I-35. Given northwest flow regime, confidence
is fairly good there would be storms both nights, but track is
less certain. Also appears to be extensive clouds on Friday, which
should limit maxes. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

One more shot at an MCS Sunday morning...most likely in Southeast
KS. Dry conditions anticipated for remainder of this period as
ridge builds into the plains. This should result in an uptick in
temperatures and dry weather on Monday-Tuesday. Highs on Monday-
Tuesday are likely conservative and based on thicknesses, at least
some triple digits seem likely in the western half of the forecast
area. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Expect VFR conditions for most locations for the next 24 hours.  The
main concern will be convective chances across North Central KS
propagating to the S-SE into portions of Central KS after 23z/Wed.
this early evening convection will probably affect the KRSL TAF
site, but uncertainty exists on whether this convection will evolve
into a forward propagating complex of storms, or will additional
convection over the high plains move S-SE overnight. Either way,
think convection will affect the wrn half of the forecast area
overnight  so will go for VCTS for areas generally west of I-135 for
the KRSL/KGBD/KSLN/KHUT and KICT TAF sites for the overnight hours.
Could see some MVFR vsbys in and around the convection if the
complex develops, but will not mention this in the TAFS just yet.

Some uncertainty on how far south this complex of storms will make
it, as instability looks to wane over south Central KS. So more of a
conditional chance for the KICT TAF.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    92  72  92  70 /  10  30  10  60
Hutchinson      92  72  91  69 /  10  30  10  60
Newton          90  71  90  69 /  10  40  10  50
ElDorado        90  71  90  69 /  10  30  20  50
Winfield-KWLD   92  72  92  70 /  10  20  20  50
Russell         93  68  90  67 /  30  40  10  60
Great Bend      93  70  92  67 /  30  30  10  60
Salina          93  71  92  69 /  20  40  10  50
McPherson       91  71  90  68 /  10  40  10  60
Coffeyville     91  73  92  71 /  30  20  30  30
Chanute         91  72  90  71 /  20  20  30  30
Iola            91  71  90  70 /  20  30  30  30
Parsons-KPPF    91  72  91  71 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Ketcham
SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...Ketcham



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