000
FXUS63 KICT 301135
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
535 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

UPDATED 12Z AVIATION SECTION.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS: RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
*MUCH* COLDER WEATHER AND POSSIBLE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
ARRIVING BY MID/LATE WEEK.

NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF WEATHER-WISE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
NO BIG STORM SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON...AND NO BIG COLD SNAPS DUE TO
THE POLAR JET REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION. INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC
THICKNESS AND FULL SUN WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOW 60S ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
MON-TUE. WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

CONFIDENCE THAT MUCH COLDER FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR MID TO ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK AND
BEYOND...AS ECMWF/GFS/GEM CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
LONGWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER ALASKA/NORTHWEST CANADA...DIGGING
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW POLAR/ARCTIC AIR
TO FILTER SOUTH...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC BOUTS OF
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. WHILE PRIMARY
SUITE OF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUPPORTS THIS OVERALL
SCENARIO...SPECIFICS ON COLD AIR AND PRECIPITATION MAGNITUDE AND
TIMING REMAIN HAZY DUE TO MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN- TO-RUN
VARIABILITY...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE GFS AND GEM. AM TENDING TO
SIDE WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT AS- OF-LATE ECMWF OVER THE LESS
CONSISTENT GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...TO AVOID CHASING THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...WILL FOCUS MORE ON HIGHER CONFIDENCE ITEMS
SUCH AS TRENDING TEMPERATURES COLDER...AND HOLDING ONTO GENERIC
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION. AT
THIS TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS
UNLIKELY...ALTHOUGH *WELL* BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S ARE LIKELY BY THU-FRI...WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS...ACCOMPANIED BY A STOUT NORTH WIND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH JUST SOME
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH
PASSAGE.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  31  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      57  28  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          56  30  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        57  31  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  33  56  33 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         57  25  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      58  26  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          57  26  54  30 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       57  27  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     58  34  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         56  31  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            55  32  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    57  32  54  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$