000
FXUS63 KICT 161721
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1221 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

The challenge today will be the extend of cloud cover and the
timing of the incoming front. Convection in parts of Oklahoma will
slowly move to the north into the CWA. Additionally, some early
morning showers have developed across part of the CWA. Raised pops
to compensate. This afternoon and evening the moisture transport
and shear will pick up as the cold front approaches. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms, some of them severe will increase as
well. Severe threat will decrease some after sunset but general
thunderstorms will still be likely through the evening and
overnight period.

Sunday the cold front will slow down and stall along the Missouri
and Oklahoma boarder. This will keep the moisture transport in
the region with good forcing along the front will keep the showers
and thunderstorms in the forecast. While severe weather is not
expected Sunday, some of the storms could have some heavy rain.
Monday will also be active as the front will still be in the
region and will start to move back to the north. Shear and
instability will improve and bring back the chance for some
isolates severe thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Long term remains challenging. ECMWF continues to keep things dry
while the GFS family of models remains aggressive with shower and
storm activity. The difference between the two models appears to
be centered around the track of Hurricane Norma in the Eastern
Pacific. The National Hurricane Center`s track of Norma continues
to pull the system into Mexico and then north into the Central
and Southern Plains. This track is in line with the GFS family of
models. Considering both model families have been consistent, and
the GFS is trending the tropical moisture down some, trimmed the
pops for the middle of next week to compensate. Confidence in the
is low due to the disagreement between the models at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

A strong cold front will move southeast across central and
southeast Kansas through this evening and tonight. Scattered
elevated convection will continue to precede this front this
afternoon along the Kansas turnpike corridor. Surface based
storms are expected by early evening along the front with the
main impacts across south central Kansas. Blustery north winds
will prevail behind the frontal passage until early this evening
across central Kansas. MVFR cigs are also expected to develop
behind the front late tonight into Sunday morning, again mainly
impacting southern Kansas.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    89  63  80  66 /  40  40  40  40
Hutchinson      90  60  77  64 /  50  50  30  40
Newton          89  61  77  64 /  40  50  30  50
ElDorado        89  63  79  65 /  30  50  40  50
Winfield-KWLD   90  66  82  66 /  30  50  40  40
Russell         83  56  74  61 /  20  20  20  50
Great Bend      86  57  74  62 /  20  30  30  50
Salina          90  59  76  64 /  50  50  30  50
McPherson       89  60  76  63 /  50  50  30  50
Coffeyville     90  68  84  67 /  20  50  40  50
Chanute         89  66  81  66 /  20  50  40  50
Iola            88  66  80  65 /  20  50  40  50
Parsons-KPPF    89  68  83  67 /  20  50  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...KED