260
FXUS63 KICT 071056
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
556 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather pattern today through Tuesday evening, and
  again Thursday night through the weekend, with multiple
  chances for thunderstorms, especially from the late afternoon
  through early morning hours.

- Warming trend through late week, with a brief cool down this
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

PRECIPITATION:

TODAY-TUESDAY EVENING...Spotty hit-or-miss thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon and evening across central and eastern
Kansas, as a convectively-induced mid-level trough approaches from
the west-northwest. Strong instability in concert with ~25 kts of
deep layer shear and decent DCAPE values should support a few strong
to severe thunderstorms. The main threats will be downburst winds
and locally heavy rain, although marginally severe hail is possible
as well given the *slightly* better deep layer shear. This activity
should fester into the evening.

Later this evening and tonight, a thunderstorm complex is expected
to track southeast across Nebraska and northwest Kansas. This
activity should tend to weaken/dissipate with southeastward extent,
although could stay alive long enough to produce strong wind gusts
over central KS toward midnight and after.

For Tuesday, spotty afternoon-evening thunderstorms will remain
possible, especially over the southern half of Kansas, in vicinity
of a weakening frontal zone. A few strong to severe thunderstorms
are possible.

THURSDAY NIGHT-WEEKEND...After a relatively quiet Wednesday-
Thursday, off-and-on thunderstorm chances return to the region, as a
cold front moves through and then stalls near the KS/OK border. As
has been the case the past several days, strong instability in
concert with marginal deep layer shear should produce a few strong
to severe thunderstorms each episode, along with locally heavy rain.

TEMPERATURES:

A building upper ridge will support warming temperatures this week,
reaching the mid-upper 90s by late week. Thereafter, a cold front
will support a cool down this weekend back into the 80s to near 90
degrees. There is a low chance for a prolonged period of intense
above average summer heat the next 7-10 days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 548 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

THIS MORNING...Patchy shallow ground fog is possible early this
morning across central and eastern Kansas. Included a few hours
of TEMPO groups with MVFR visibilities from 12-14z.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...Spotty hit-or-miss thunderstorms are
possible across the region, as a weak mid-level disturbance
progresses east over the area. The primary hazards will be
isolated strong downburst winds, small hail, and locally heavy
rainfall. Decided to leave this mention out of the 12z TAFs, as
coverage should be mostly isolated to widely scattered, and
predictability on exact timing and location is low.

LATER THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT...A thunderstorm complex is
expected to progress south-southeast out of Nebraska later this
evening, possibly reaching as far south as central and southern
KS toward midnight and after. The primary risk with this
activity will be 40-60 mph winds, with greater chances for RSL
and SLN. Added PROB30 groups for all TAF sites except CNU to
cover this threat.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK