000
FXUS63 KICT 021125
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
525 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

TODAY-EARLY EVENING:
EXPECT SOME MARGINALLY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST FOR A
BIT LONGER IN SOUTHEAST KS WHILE SECOND BAND THROUGH ICT WILL
LIKELY RE-INTENSIFY LATER THIS MORNING. ONE POSITIVE IS THAT THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE OVER AS COLD AIR HAS RESULTED
IN EITHER SLEET/SNOW FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. A BIT PUZZLED BY
CONFLICTING SIGNALS WITH APPROACHING WAVE...WITH LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE 0000 UTC UPPER AIR DATA...BUT IMPRESSIVE WATER VAPOR
LOOP AND FAIR AMOUNT OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS ON
TIMING/LOCATION OF BEST LIFT DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER CONSISTENT
SIGNAL IS THAT SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS WILL LIKELY HAVE
MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SNOW FOR ANOTHER 12 PLUS HOURS...EITHER FROM
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH WAVE AND/OR FRONTOGENESIS. EVEN IF THE
INTENSITY IS LESS...PERSISTENCE SHOULD STILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
2-3 MORE INCHES BARRING A PREDOMINATELY SLEET EVENT. HAVE
DOWNGRADED SALINE/ELLSWORTH TO AN ADVISORY WHERE ONLY LIGHT SNOW
IS ANTICIPATED. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
COWLEY COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE PAST 0000 UTC.

REST OF TONIGHT-MON:
RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT WITH WINDS CONTINUING
TO DIMINISH. WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO TANK... WITH SOME RECORD LOWS PROBABLY FALLING. GIVEN RIDGE
AXIS MOVING ACROSS AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL BE
DIFFICULT ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF CIRRUS IS THICKER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. GFS/ECMWF AT ODDS WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

MON NIGHT-TUE:
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...BUT RETURN FLOW MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURE DROP
ACROSS FAR WEST. STILL KEPT TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE EAST...WITH A
NOD TO THE GEM WHICH HAS VERIFIED WELL IN THIS REGIME. MODEST
WARMUP ON TUE AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
STILL RUNNING A BIT BELOW NORMAL. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEAK/MODEST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OVER MID-AMERICA MID-WEEK...WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING CHANCE OF A LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WED-WED NIGHT.
UPPER DYNAMICS ARE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AND TEMPERATURES MAY
BE ONLY MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...SO NOT ANTICIPATING A
BIG WEATHER-MAKER...WITH ONLY VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST BY LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...WITH 40S-
50S A GOOD BET AND POSSIBLY NEAR 60F OVER SOUTHERN KS FRI. ECMWF
AND GEM MODELS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS A MODEST MID-LEVEL TROUGH INTO
THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...WHICH COULD SPELL ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRI NIGHT-SAT...ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT NEARLY
AS COLD AS CURRENT AIRMASS. THIS SCENARIO DEFINITELY IS NOT SET IN
STONE YET THOUGH...AS GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY NOT AS AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED COOL DOWN. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS...SO STAY TUNED FOR
LATER FORECASTS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

ANTICIPATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO RAMP UP BY MID-LATE MORNING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER GENERALLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS...AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST. SNOW/SLEET MIX WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. FOR NOW ONLY WENT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ALTHOUGH
COULD SEE PATCHY IFR DEVELOP WITHIN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AREAS.
BY EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON...SNOW SHOULD BECOME THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND COULD BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FROM WEST
TO EAST...AGAIN OVER GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS. WENT
PREVAILING IFR FOR NOW...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF LIFR WITHIN
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AREAS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER SOUTHEAST KS.

ADK

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

THE FOLLOWING ARE CLIMATE RECORDS THAT MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN TODAY
AND MONDAY:

COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 2ND:

RSL 16 IN 2002
SLN 18 IN 2002
ICT 15 IN 1943
CNU 22 IN 1960

COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 3RD:

RSL -16 IN 1960
SLN -9 IN 1916
ICT -2 IN 1960
CNU 0 IN 2002

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT     7  -5  15   6 /  90  30   0   0
HUTCHINSON       5  -8  14   7 /  90  20   0   0
NEWTON           6  -6  15   6 /  90  20   0   0
ELDORADO         7  -4  14   4 /  90  40   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD    9  -1  18   5 /  90  70   0   0
RUSSELL          5 -10  21  12 /  40  10   0   0
GREAT BEND       4 -14  20  12 /  60  20   0   0
SALINA           6  -9  15   8 /  70  10   0   0
MCPHERSON        5  -7  14   7 /  80  20   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     13   2  19   4 /  80  70   0  10
CHANUTE          9  -1  17   4 /  90  70   0  10
IOLA             8  -2  17   4 /  90  70   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    11   1  19   4 /  80  70   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ070>072-
093>096-098>100.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ050>053-
067>069-082-083-091-092.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST MONDAY
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091-092.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-
033-047>049.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST MONDAY FOR
KSZ070>072-093>096.

&&

$$