000
FXUS63 KICT 181749
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1246 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEING
AFFECTED BY SEVERE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS IT EVOLVES/MOVES
EAST OFF THE DRY-LINE FURTHER TO THE WEST. STRONG TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AT PEAK HEATING WITH INITIATION
EXPECTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST
INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPER-CELLS
WITH A FEW TORNADOES. CAP STRENGTH WILL BE KEY IN HOW FAR EAST
THIS CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...THOUGH THE NAM AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST AS FAR EAST
AS THE TURNPIKE THRU THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PROGGED ENERGY
HELICITY VALUES BELOW 3KM AND 1KM SUGGESTS THAT A TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST EVEN AFTER DARK UP THRU MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE THERE IS SOME NEGATATING FACTORS WITH CAP
STRENGTH AND FLOW ALOFT FOR CONVECTIVE AND SUPER-CELL MAINTENANCE
INTO EARLY TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY DOES LEAD TO KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY OPEN.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHT (MAJOR): STRONG POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES OVER
MOST OF KICT COUNTRY SUN & SUN EVENING.

UPR-DECK TROF THAT IS DIGGING OVER GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING WILL TAKE
ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CONTINUES TO DIG OVER THE CNTRL & SRN
ROCKIES AS WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AS THE WAVE CROSSES THE NM/TX BORDER
SUN MORNING INTENSE SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES WHICH WOULD ENABLE RICH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TO STEADILY
INCREASE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. FOR TODAY THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR +TSRA IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER PRIMARILY WRN KS & WRN OK
WHERE STRONG DRY LINE POSITIONED FROM EXTREME SE CO TO THE SE NM/FAR W
TX BORDER WILL PUNCH E/NE TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...WRN KS & THE OK & TX
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG CAP CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THESE
AREAS IS "SAFETY-SEALED" BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE APPROACHING DRY
LINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE EXPLOSIVE TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER
WRN KS & WRN OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE AFORE-MENTIONED UPR-DECK
TROF STRENGTHENING FURTHER THE RESULTING INCREASED MID-UPR SW FLOW MAY
BRING SVR TSRA TO AREAS ALONG & W OF I-135 LATE THIS AFTERNOON & THIS
EVENING. AS UPR TROF CONTINUES IT`S TREK E (+)TSRA WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS REST OF KS WHERE CONVECTION WOULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE VERY LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS REACHING
TENNISBALL-SIZED. ON SUNDAY THE GREATEST SVR THREAT WILL TRANSITION E
COVERING NEARLY ALL OF ERN HALF OF KS. THE AMOUNT OF LWR-DECK
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR IF SUFFICIENT
BACKING OCCURS THE TORNADIC THREAT WOULD CERTAINLY INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS WHERE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL WOULD REMAIN THE GREATEST
THREAT. AS MID-UPR TROF UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS SUN NGT & MON A 2ND
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE MID-UPR CYCLONE. THIS
WOULD ENABLE TSRA TO PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY SE KS...SUN
NGT & MON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

WITH FOCUS ON FIRST 3 DAYS OF FORECAST...THE INHERITED EXTENDED
FORECAST WAS KEPT ESSENTIALLY INTACT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

MVFR CIGS IMPACTING ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THE CLOUD DECK CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHWARD. THE BIGGER THREAT TURNS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE
AREA AND MOVE EASTWARD. THESE WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT ALL SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCNU. TIMING WITH EXPECTED TERMINAL IMPACTS
IS QUESTIONABLE FOR NOW AND WILL DEPEND ON STORM INITIATION.
EXPECT STORMS TO LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE WELL INTO THE MORNING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  68  86  58 /  20  40  50  40
HUTCHINSON      87  67  84  58 /  20  40  50  30
NEWTON          86  67  84  59 /  20  40  60  50
ELDORADO        86  68  85  58 /  20  40  60  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   88  69  87  56 /  20  40  60  50
RUSSELL         87  64  81  57 /  30  50  40  20
GREAT BEND      87  64  81  55 /  30  50  40  20
SALINA          87  68  85  60 /  20  50  50  40
MCPHERSON       86  67  84  58 /  20  40  50  40
COFFEYVILLE     87  70  87  64 /  10  30  60  60
CHANUTE         86  68  85  64 /  10  30  70  60
IOLA            86  68  85  63 /  10  30  80  60
PARSONS-KPPF    87  70  86  64 /  10  30  70  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$