Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 220855
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
255 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 253 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

A vigorous winter storm will continue to make progress across the
forecast area early today, with wraparound snow in the comma head of
the system increasing across northern and central KS as the upper
low makes its way east across central KS. Trowal axis wrapping from
Neb back SW into north central KS will enhance snowfall rates for
areas just to the NW of the forecast area.  Some concern about a
little higher snow totals along Interstate 70 for the morning hours,
as the trowal axis with increased lift remains situated over north
central KS for a good portion of the morning hours, which may
increase snow totals some.  Latest hiRes model solutions seems to
support snow totals a little higher but not enough to change the
gist of the going forecast.  But think some areas north of I-70 may
see snow totals in the 2 to 3 inch range.  Further to the south
along and north of highway 56, think snow totals around an inch
still look reasonable.  After looking at some of the snow totals off
the hi-rez solutions, thought about adding McPherson and rice co`s
to the advisory but will hold off for now.  The only thing that
gives me pause is the main upper low is progged to go right over
this area later this morning, which may locally enhance snow totals.
For now think the forecast is on track.

As the upper low shifts into central KS, a tight pressure gradient
with strong N-NW winds gusting to 40 mph will develop across most of
central and south central KS.  The combination of the snow and gusty
winds will lead to very hazardous travel conditions even with the
lighter snow amounts. Current winter weather advisory will hit the
reduced visibilities hard.  Think a wind advisory south of the
snowfall area looks fine, given the strong gradient winds expected
even across south central KS.

Most of the warm advection showers located ahead of the dry line
have shifted east into MO early today, with main cold front pushing
east across the area this morning.  Think most of south central and
southeast KS may see a brief changeover to snow on the southern end
of the comma head late this afternoon, as it rotates east and slowly
lifts to the northeast by this afternoon.  Not expecting much precip
south of highway 50.

Pressure gradient should relax this evening and overnight as the
storm system rapidly pulls to the NE of the area.  Upper ridge will
build across the Rockies for Tue/Wed.  Not expecting much of a cool
down behind todays departing system, as downslope W-NW flow will
lead to seasonal temps both days.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 253 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

A warming trend will return to the region for Thu and Fri as the
ridge over the Rockies flattens out with zonal flow across most of
the plains.  This will lead to southerly surface flow and max temps
warmer well above normal.

A quick hitting system looks to move across the northern plains for
Fri into Fri night.  Due to quick nature of the system, low level
moisture will be slow return to the area as the system approaches,
with areas east of the Flint Hills having a small chance of rain or
rain changing to snow for Fri night.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Widespread IFR with periods of LIFR expected tonight across
central Kansas as a deepening closed low moves northeast across
the central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley through Monday. Strong
northwest winds will develop behind the deepening low/occlusion
which will affect central and southeast Kansas late tonight
through Monday. Snow and strong winds will reduce visibilities on
Monday, especially across central Kansas. A period of lighter
snow and minimal accumulations is expected further south into
south central Kansas Monday morning with a rain/snow mix possible
in southeast Kansas. VFR conditions should return to all areas by
Monday evening.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Very high grassland fire danger is expected across most of
south central KS today with strong gusty N-NW winds and cured
grasses.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    43  25  48  24 /  30   0   0   0
Hutchinson      41  23  46  22 /  50   0   0   0
Newton          39  23  45  23 /  50  10   0   0
ElDorado        41  25  46  24 /  40  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   44  25  49  25 /  20   0   0   0
Russell         39  21  44  19 /  80   0   0   0
Great Bend      41  21  45  20 /  70   0   0   0
Salina          40  23  44  22 /  80  10   0   0
McPherson       40  22  45  21 /  70  10   0   0
Coffeyville     45  28  49  25 /  20  10   0   0
Chanute         42  26  46  25 /  30  10   0   0
Iola            41  26  45  25 /  30  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    44  27  48  25 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
for KSZ051>053-068-069-083-092-093.

Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ032-
033-047>049.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ050-067-082-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham


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