Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 250902
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
402 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY REMAINING ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT USHERS IN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 97 TO 104 DEGREE RANGE SENDING THE HEAT
INDICES INTO THE 102-107 DEGREE RANGE. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS
THE AREA. A ROGUE STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ALONG A SAGGING COLD
FRONT ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
DRIVING THIS BOUNDARY SOUTH WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP IT NORTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED LOW POPS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ALTHOUGH THE CAP MAY PRECLUDE DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS
DRAPED ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS STATE LINE. MAINTAINED LOW POPS
ALONG THIS FRONT AS IS MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW AS
A CAPPING INVERSION IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY BUT A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR IS EXPECTED ON MON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ANOTHER STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY TUESDAY. THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED WITH A
LARGE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AREA. NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MAINTAINED LOW POPS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A 50 KNOT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
SHOULD KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXY OVERNIGHT WEST OF I-135. GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS APPEAR LIKELY THERE...WHILE SOUTHEAST KS WILL BE DECOUPLED.
DEEP MIXED LAYER (SURFACE-700 MB) ON FRIDAY EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING
TO 30-34 KNOTS IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A FEW
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

JMC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT   101  77 102  76 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON     103  75 102  74 /  10  10  20  20
NEWTON          99  77 101  74 /  10  10  20  20
ELDORADO        99  76 100  74 /  10  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   99  76 101  74 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL        104  73 100  73 /  10  20  20  20
GREAT BEND     104  74 101  74 /  10  20  20  20
SALINA         104  75 102  74 /  10  10  20  20
MCPHERSON      104  75 102  74 /  10  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     99  74  99  74 /  10   0  10  10
CHANUTE         98  74  98  74 /  10  10  10  20
IOLA            97  75  97  74 /  10  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    98  74  99  74 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$






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