Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 251931
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
231 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Water vapor imagery shows shortwave energy lifting over the
northern high plains with the main vort lobe still back over the
desert southwest. Just like yesterday, a number of surface
boundaries are floating around. Strong outflow pushed through
eastern Oklahoma and is now situated in a NW to SE fashion through
central OK. Meanwhile, another outflow boundary is situated along
or just north of I-70 which extends into a surface low over west-
central KS. The more synoptic boundary, in the form of a loose
dryline/trough, extends from west of KICT to west of Woodward OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Storm chances tonight are totally conditional on if storms can
develop with weak convergence on the dryline or near the dryline-
outflow interface late this afternoon. Confidence is high that we
will be uncapped after 3pm east of this feature with the only
question if there will be enough convergence to initiateanything.
The short range models remain consistent developing activity near
or south of KICT. With extremely unstable airmass, anything that
develops will quickly become severe with golf ball hail and
downburst winds possible. If storms develop, can`t also rule out a
tornado if they can stay isolated. Looks like the best mid level
warm advection will shift over northeast KS tonight which is where
best elevated storm chances will be.

Confidence in severe storms is higher for Thu as the main vort
lobe approaches the high Plains. This will allow a surface low to
deepen over far eastern CO into west-central KS. A dryline will
then sharpen west of our forecast area, generally west of Highway
183. There will also be a pronounced warm front near the KS-
Nebraska line with the NAM further south with the feature compared
to the GFS. Just like Tue, storms should develop along the dryline
or dryline warm front intersection after 3 pm and migrate east
into the evening hours. All severe weather modes will be possible
including tornadoes. Feel the best tornado chances will be prior
to 10pm west of I-135, before the storms congeal into an MCS.
With grounds extremely saturated, flooding will be likely with any
of the more intense storms.

By 12z Fri, the main upper wave will be over west-central KS with
strong upper diffluence over most of the forecast area. Low level
moisture will remain high as the Pacific front surges east during
the day Fri. At least sct storms will be likely Fri afternoon
evening given the strong upper dynamics. Mid and upper winds
backing may limit higher end severe along with an overnight
outflow pushing rich moisture south. Nevertheless, severe storms
will still be possible Fri.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

By 12z Sat, shortwave will be lifting across far northeast
KS/eastern Nebraska which will take the better storm chances east
of the forecast area for Sat. Sat night could be interesting as
the good juice starts to roll back northeast in the 850-700mb
layer with decent isentropic lift setting up. Would not be shocked
to see some elevated convection develop after 06z Sun. We then get
into a weak sw upper flow pattern for the remainder of these
extended periods. However, there is some decent model agreement
now in lifting a weak upper impulse out of the desert SW and into
the southern/central Plains for Mon into Mon evening. So that does
lead to some confidence during this time frame. Also looks like
some additional energy to lift out Wed into Wed evening. While
instability will be high during this time frame, mid and upper
winds will not be particularly strong, so starting to think
flooding maybe a bigger threat that severe storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

convective potential is the main challenge. Anticipate conditions
will improve to vfr at all sites early this afternoon. Thunderstorms
possible in the vicinity of KSLN/KHUT/kgdb/KICT late afternoon/early
evening near dryline/outflow boundary. KCNU looks to remain well
into the stable area of the outflow boundary. Suspect thunderstorms
will be primarily focused by surface convergence. Given soupy
airmass, anticipate MVFR/IFR conditions to return later tonight.
-Howerton


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    88  69  85  66 /  20  20  20  60
Hutchinson      88  67  85  64 /  20  20  30  50
Newton          87  69  84  65 /  20  20  20  60
ElDorado        86  69  83  66 /  20  20  20  60
Winfield-KWLD   88  70  85  66 /  20  20  30  50
Russell         83  63  85  61 /  10  10  40  60
Great Bend      85  63  86  61 /  10  10  50  60
Salina          86  67  84  64 /  20  20  30  60
McPherson       86  67  84  64 /  20  20  30  60
Coffeyville     85  70  84  67 /  20  20  30  50
Chanute         84  70  83  67 /  20  20  20  60
Iola            84  69  83  66 /  20  20  20  60
Parsons-KPPF    84  70  83  67 /  20  20  20  60

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...PJH



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