Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 032039
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
339 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TONIGHT-TUESDAY:
SMALL CHANCE FOR DIURNAL STORMS THROUGH SUNSET IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. AFTER THAT SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER. MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TONIGHT
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. STORMS BECOME FAIRLY LIKELY AFTER
DAYBREAK AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. FAIR
AMOUNT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY ON BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY...BUT WOULD THINK THAT WESTERN HALF
WOULD REMAIN DRY IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION.

TUE NIGHT:
NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHAT MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON TO GENERATE
WIDESPD QFP TUE EVENING. INTIALLY SEEMED A BIT UNLIKELY  EARLY ON
IN WAKE OF DAYTIME PRECIPITATION. UPON FURTHER THOUGHT...PATTERN
WOULD FAVOR SOME OVERRUNNING OF RAIN COOLED AIR DURING THE NIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE CLIMATOLOGY...
OPTED TO KEEP POPS FAIRLY HIGH BUT NOT ATTEMPT TO GET MORE SPECIFIC
WITH TIMING.

WED-THU:
ANTICIPATE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT START OF
THIS PERIOD OVER EASTERN HALF...WHICH WOULD EXIT EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS AROUND SUNSET. DRY WEATHER CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED ON THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN EASTERN
SECTIONS ON WED WITH CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT SHOULD REBOUND ALL
SECTIONS BY THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
CRITICAL SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
FORECAST. OPTED NOT TO MAKE CHANGES TO INTIALIZATION GRIDS GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP FRI DRY...BUT FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AREA FOR FRI NIGHT-SUN NIGHT WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST SMALL CHANCES. INITIALIZATION KEPT MON DRY..BUT GIVEN GFS
HAS EAST/WEST FRONT ACROSS FORECAST MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA...AND
ECMWF HAS IT ALONG OK/KS BORDER COULD SEE POPS ADDED THIS
PERIOD WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TO SHIFT
TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. FURTHER SOUTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BUT REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT. INTRODUCED SOME TSRA AFTER 12-14Z ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KS AS SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY ON TUESDAY. -HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  84  70  90 /  30  60  60  20
HUTCHINSON      72  83  69  90 /  30  60  50  20
NEWTON          71  83  69  88 /  20  60  60  20
ELDORADO        72  83  70  87 /  20  60  60  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  84  70  91 /  30  60  50  20
RUSSELL         70  84  66  90 /  30  50  40  10
GREAT BEND      70  83  68  90 /  40  50  40  10
SALINA          72  85  70  89 /  20  60  60  20
MCPHERSON       71  83  69  89 /  30  60  60  20
COFFEYVILLE     73  85  72  90 /  20  60  60  40
CHANUTE         73  85  71  86 /  10  60  60  50
IOLA            72  85  71  84 /  10  60  60  50
PARSONS-KPPF    73  85  71  88 /  20  60  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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