Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 170545
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1145 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 314 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

A shortwave over West Texas this afternoon per water vapor imagery,
will continue to eject northeastward over the Southern Plains
tonight, into Missouri/Illinois on Sunday, as an upstream kicker
wave digs into the Desert Southwest and northwest Mexico. The
ejecting wave will have limited moisture available, with the lift
fairly transient (3-5 hours). Nevertheless, a relatively high
probability of light to very light rainfall amounts are expected
over southeast Kansas, with rain chances diminishing greatly and
rapidly to the northwest of the Kansas Turnpike. Low clouds will
likely linger over much of eastern Kansas Sunday, trapped beneath a
temperature inversion. This should keep high temperatures restricted
to the mid 40s to around 50.

The shortwave trough in the Southwest is progged to eject eastward
across the Southern Plains late Monday night through Tuesday night,
as a stronger trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. A return to
sunshine, and a light downslope, southwesterly wind on Monday, will
aid in high temperatures rebounding to about 10 to 15 degrees above
normal (mid-upper 50s). The much warmer than normal air will persist
through Tuesday. The brunt of the rain chances with the ejecting
wave over the Southern Plains, are progged to be south of Kansas,
although small probabilities cannot be ruled out near the Oklahoma
border counties.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

The medium range models remain in good overall agreement that the
large scale upper pattern will become more amplified during this mid
to late week period. Strong positive 500 mb height anomalies are
indicated over Alaska, the Yukon, and Northwest Territories, with
mean upper troughing developing from central/eastern Canada down
across the central CONUS. This will support modified, arctic air
spreading southward through the Northern/Central Plains in one or
more surges into the weekend.

Medium range models show discrepancies with the evolution of the
initial upper trough/upper low digging through the Rockies Wednesday
into Thursday. However they agree on bringing the first strong cold
front through Kansas Wednesday night into Thursday. Falling
temperatures appear likely across much of the state on Thursday.
There are some indications of chances for light rain changing to
light snow Thursday into Thursday night, within the mid-level
baroclinic zone. At this time, this appears most likely from
northern portions of Kansas/Missouri northward. Confidence remains
high in below normal temperatures for Friday/Saturday with highs in
the lower to middle 30s and nighttime lows of 10 to 20.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

MVFR conditions are likely at all sites late tonight/early on
Sunday with IFR likely KCNU/KHUT and possible at KICT/KGBD.
KRSL/KSLN appear to be on the western/northern fringe of better
moisture return. Precipitation now appears likely at kict/kcnu and
possibly khut. Given lack of low level dry air due to quasi-
stationary front, anticipate clouds will be slow to lift/dissipate
and will keep forecast fairly pessimistic on clearing/improving
flight categories. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    43  49  30  57 /  40  10   0   0
Hutchinson      42  47  27  58 /  20  10   0   0
Newton          43  47  29  56 /  30  20   0   0
ElDorado        44  49  31  57 /  60  20   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   44  50  31  58 /  60  10  10   0
Russell         33  43  24  56 /  10  10   0   0
Great Bend      34  43  24  57 /  10  10   0   0
Salina          42  47  27  57 /  10  10   0   0
McPherson       42  46  26  57 /  20  10   0   0
Coffeyville     44  51  38  59 /  80  40  10   0
Chanute         43  50  37  57 /  80  50  10   0
Iola            43  50  37  57 /  80  60  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    44  51  38  58 /  80  40  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...PJH



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