Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 291121
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
621 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

The upper low currently over the Ohio Valley will remain stationary
for at least the next 24 hours, with this blocky pattern leading to
the upper ridge building across the plains. Northerly flow on the
north side of the low will lead to cold advection continuing over
the area today, with mostly clear skies with afternoon temps
struggling to make it into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Fri-Sat: The upper low continues to spin over the Ohio Valley for
the first part of the weekend with a slow drift to the north by
Saturday. With the slow movement of the upper low, expect the ridge
of high pressure (to the west of the low) to linger over most of the
forecast area at least through the beginning of the weekend. This
will lead to seasonal temps and mostly clear skies continuing for
Fri-Sat.

Flow looks to become more zonal by the middle of the weekend, as a
kicker type system, currently off the west coast of BC Canada, moves
into the wrn US. This will help flatten out the ridge over the
plains, which will lead to a slow warming trend and low level
moisture gradually returning across wrn KS for late Sat into Sun.
This warm advection may lead to a few showers and isolated storms
moving back into western sections of the forecast area by late Sat
night.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Medium range models differ some on the timing and strength of this
shortwave as it crosses the Rockies on Mon.  Trend for this system
has been slower, with the latest ECMWF coming out a little stronger
with this system, and even takes on a negative tilt as it comes
across the plains.  The ECMWF and to lessor extent the GFS suggests
a more active pattern for Mon night across western Kansas and for
the rest of the area Tue afternoon-Wed. This active pattern may even
lead to some strong to severe storms for Tue night.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

VFR will prevail for all terminals through the 24-hr forecast
period. While mostly clear conditions and light winds are
anticipated...there may be a transient period of fair weather
cumulus during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  48  73  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      69  46  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          68  47  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        69  46  72  50 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   70  47  73  50 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         68  45  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      69  45  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          69  46  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       68  46  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     71  48  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         69  48  73  50 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            69  48  72  50 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    70  48  74  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...MWM


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