Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 280447
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1147 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Deep upper low continues to spin over the Great Lakes with ridging
over the Great Basin into the Rockies. At the surface, high
pressure is situated over the southern Plains.

Upper low over the Great Lakes will sink south and will be
situated over the Ohio Valley by Wed night. As this occurs, a
reinforcing shot of cold air will push through the forecast area
Wed morning, knocking highs down a few degrees for Wed and
especially Thu. 850mb temps on Thu support highs struggling to
get out of the low 70s. By Thu evening the upper low will be
situated over the Tennessee Valley as upper ridging slides over
the central/southern Plains which will keep rain out of the
forecast through Friday. Upper troughing will slowly approach the
Rockies Fri evening into Sat which will bring increased rain
chances to the Plains for the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

There is good model agreement that by Sat evening a sharp trough
will be approaching the northwest conus and will continue across
the northern Rockies by Mon morning. Mid level warm advection will
increase ahead of the trough Sat into Sat night and will bring
some small rain chances back for Sat night and Sun night with a
possible front bringing another shot for rain Mon into Mon night.
However, confidence is very low with regards to rain chances
through these extended periods as the better upper dynamics remain
north. Temps through these extended periods look to be near or
slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

VFR conditions forecast at all sites throughout period. Light and
variable winds should continue most of the night, with weak front
backdooring into area around daybreak. Slightly stronger mixing
during the day will boost winds a bit, but become light by sunset.
-Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    54  75  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      54  75  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          54  74  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        56  73  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   55  76  49  71 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         52  73  45  70 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      53  75  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          53  73  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       54  74  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     54  75  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         54  72  48  69 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            54  70  48  69 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    54  74  48  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...PJH



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