Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 191736
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1236 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Taking a look at the hemispheric water vapor loop this morning,
cutoff energy is evident over the Pacific Northwest. Upstream of
this cutoff low, an omega block has set up across the northern
Pacific Ocean, resulting in the stubborn upper-level ridge over
the central CONUS. Expect this ridging to persist until this
blocking pattern begins to break today later this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

The main concern through the middle to end of the work week will
be the extreme heat, with widespread 100 degree temperatures
likely across central and south central Kansas by Wednesday. Upon
collaboration, no changes have been made to the inherited heat
advisory and excessive heat warning for today. Considered issuing
an excessive heat watch across central Kansas; however, upon
collaboration, the uncertainty in how much mixing will take place
to lower dew point temperatures, and marginal heat indices on
Wednesday have decided to hold off for now.

Wednesday, and particularly Thursday, the heat really gets
cranking across the region with widespread 100 degree temperatures
likely. Thursday looks to be the hottest day of the week with
temperatures exceeding 100 degrees in many locations across
central and south central Kansas. Therefore, have increased
temperatures a degree or two in the aforementioned locations. I
would not be surprised if temperatures need to be increased a bit
more as we get closer, as a few model solutions and blends show
temperatures reaching and/or exceeding the 105 degree mark,
especially across central Kansas. With this dangerous heat
becoming more widespread by Thursday, would not be surprised if
the heat advisory and/or excessive heat warning for the middle to
end of the work week will need to be expanded down the road.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Friday will be another very hot day with temperatures exceeding
or near 100 degrees once again across the area. Expect heat
headlines to remain in effect through the end of the work week at
this point with 105 heat indices still looking possible. As the
upper-level ridge begins to break down later this week and
weekend, a weak frontal boundary will slowly approach the area
and bring back periodic thunderstorm chances. However, confidence
is not high that precipitation will develop until later in the
weekend as the frontal boundary remains well northwest of the area
until Saturday evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

SSW winds will back later this afternoon becoming more SSE before
diminishing to around 12 kts tonight. Very similar conditions
anticipated on Wed with breezy SSW winds early becoming SSE later
in the day although speeds may increase slightly on Wed compared
to today. Some fair weather cu in the 8-9 kft range has developed
across south central KS and should diminish by early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    96  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      99  75 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          96  75  99  76 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        95  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   95  76  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         99  74 102  75 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      99  74 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          99  76 101  77 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       98  75 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     94  75  96  75 /   0   0  10   0
Chanute         94  75  95  76 /   0   0  10   0
Iola            94  75  95  76 /   0   0  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    94  75  95  75 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ051-068-069-083-
092>096-098>100.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ049-052-053-
070>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMR
SHORT TERM...JMR
LONG TERM...JMR
AVIATION...MWM


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