Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 050756
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
156 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 153 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

A shortwave trough was lifting northeast out of N. Mexico spreading
widespread rain across S. Texas and points downstream across the
Lower Mississippi Valley area and much of the Southeastern U.S.
while another shortwave trough was moving eastward across the
Northern Rockies.

As the mid lvl flow increases over the Central Rockies today, the
pressure gradient will tighten resulting in breezy southerly winds
returning to central KS helping to drive temperatures into the 50s.
The northern stream shortwave trough will drive a cold front south
across the region tonight with H85 CAA driving temperatures down.
Highs on Tuesday will struggle to reach 40 across central KS while
highs climb into the low 40s near the OK state line. Another
progressive shortwave trough is progged to move out of the Central
Great Basin area and into the Central Rockies late Tuesday night
spreading light snow downstream across the Central Plains States and
into central KS mainly after 08-10z. Recent trends have supported a
northward shift of the deeper isothermal layer and more favorable
snow growth zone lowering confidence for accumulating snow across
southern KS on Wednesday. Generally trended accumulations and pops
down near the OK state line and maintained a 2-3 inch accumulation
swath along the I-70 corridor. The progressive nature of the
shortwave trough appears to be the biggest limiting factor for
higher accumulations with only a narrow 3-5 hour window for
accumulating snow. A Winter Weather Advisory for snow may still be
needed, especially across our central KS counties.

Drier, subsident air will arrive Wednesday night with continued low
level cold air advection driving lows into the single digits across
much of central KS while teens will be common over southeast KS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 153 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Surface high pressure will settle over the Central Plains on
Thursday-Thursday night allowing strong radiational cooling and
single digit lows across most of the area. Highs will struggle to
reach 20 over portions of central KS while highs rise into the
upper 20s near the OK state line. Low level southerly flow will
return on Friday-Saturday with moderating temperatures and dry
weather conditions. Maintained low pops on Sunday with a
progressive zonal flow but confidence in measurable precipitation
remains low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Areas of fog dense at times will affect southeast Kansas for the
overnight and early morning hours. There could be some patchy fog
as far west as the ICT terminal during the overnight hours.
Otherwise south winds will increase during the day on Monday with
VFR conditions expected. A cold front will then race southward
into central Kansas Monday night.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    55  30  40  25 /   0  10   0  20
Hutchinson      53  27  38  22 /   0  10   0  30
Newton          53  27  38  22 /   0  10   0  20
ElDorado        54  29  39  23 /   0  10   0  20
Winfield-KWLD   55  31  42  26 /  10  10   0  20
Russell         55  23  35  18 /   0   0   0  50
Great Bend      55  24  37  19 /   0  10   0  50
Salina          56  25  38  20 /   0  10   0  30
McPherson       53  26  38  21 /   0  10   0  30
Coffeyville     53  34  43  28 /  10  20   0  10
Chanute         53  31  41  26 /  10  10   0  10
Iola            53  30  41  25 /  10  10   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    54  33  43  28 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ



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