Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 160446
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1146 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Active weather expected the next 7-10 days across the region,
with periodic bouts of showers/thunderstorms expected.

A bit of a forecast bust across the region today, as areas of
showers/thunderstorms have lingered all day from south-central
into east-central KS. This activity is associated with 800-600mb
isentropic ascent on the eastern edge of an advancing EML, along
with subtle upper disturbances within moist subtropical flow
streaming in from the southwest. While a majority of the rainfall
amounts have been relatively light, there have been small pockets
exceeding 0.50-1.00 inch since early this morning, a welcome sight
amidst a rather pronounced dry spell as of late.

Thinking this current activity will tend to dissipate by late
afternoon/early evening. Meanwhile, cannot rule out a few stray
thunderstorms late this afternoon into the evening over western KS
along a lee trough/dryline. Development could be aided by
shortwave energy approaching from the southwest evident in water
vapor imagery. If anything can form, limited forcing and so-so
instability should keep activity generally west of a line from
Great Bend to Russell to Pratt. Furthermore, later tonight into
Saturday morning, could once again see an area of elevated
showers/storms develop along generally the KS Turnpike corridor,
as additional subtle shortwave energy within the subtropical plume
approaches from the southwest. Setup doesn`t look as favorable as
last night/today given a tempered mid-level thermal gradient, so
activity should be more sparse.

A strong cold front will progress southeast into the area
Saturday, as a powerful upper shortwave ejects northeast across
the Northern Plains. Despite weak to nil upper support across KS,
strong heating and instability, along with stout frontal
convergence should allow for at least a few isolated storms across
the forecast area by late afternoon/evening. The strong
instability coupled with expected ~30 kts of deep layer shear will
support a few strong to severe storms, with large hail/damaging
winds accompanying the strongest activity into the evening.

Should see a rather cloudy and at times showery/stormy Sunday, as
subtle upper ripples approaching from the southwest induce modest
deep isentropic ascent atop the frontal zone stalled to the
south. Additional redevelopment is likely Sunday night into early
Monday as well, as the low-level jet strengthens and an elongated
upper trough approaches from the west.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Off-and-on stormy weather is expected to continue through next
week, and possibly even through next weekend, as a deep longwave
trough gradually becomes established across the western CONUS, and
a strong frontal zone wobbles across Mid-America. Operational
model suite and associated ensembles strongly support this
pattern. As is typically the case this far out, there is still
quite a bit of uncertainty surrounding specific timing of
shower/storm chances, so stay tuned. Given strength of mid-upper
flow and degree of expected instability, suspect a handful of
strong/severe storm episodes along with the potential for locally
heavy rain through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Aviation concerns will be wind shear tonight along with storm
chances along cold front Sat.

A few storms can`t be ruled out overnight as most of the area
stays in a broad area of mid level theta-e advection with minimal
capping above 850mb. There are some model solutions that try and
bring in more widespread activity after sunrise, but confidence in
this panning out is low. Meanwhile, have much higher confidence in
storms developing along a strong cold front as it slowly pushes
south on Sat. Currently expecting this front to move through KRSL
around 20z and KICT around 01z Sun. Should see at least a few
storms along the front and with plenty of instability some severe
storms can`t be ruled out.

Just like last night, winds just off the surface will be strong
with speeds around 40kts expected by around 2,000ft. This shear
should linger until around sunrise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  91  64  82 /  20  30  40  30
Hutchinson      72  92  60  80 /  20  40  40  30
Newton          71  90  61  79 /  20  40  40  30
ElDorado        71  90  64  81 /  20  20  40  40
Winfield-KWLD   72  91  66  83 /  20  20  40  30
Russell         71  85  56  77 /  10  10  30  30
Great Bend      71  87  57  78 /  20  10  30  30
Salina          73  92  59  79 /  20  40  40  30
McPherson       72  91  59  79 /  20  40  40  30
Coffeyville     69  90  68  85 /  10  10  40  30
Chanute         69  88  66  82 /  10  10  30  40
Iola            68  87  66  81 /  10  10  40  40
Parsons-KPPF    69  90  68  84 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...RBL



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