Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 291655
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1155 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
EXPECT FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND EXIT SOUTHEAST KS
BY MID MORNING. EXTENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION LATER THIS
MORNING IS QUESTIONABLE. EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS THAN PRECIPITATION
GIVEN WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE BY LATE
MORNING. MAIN PRECIPITATION DRIVER WILL LIKELY BE THE WEAK 850MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION. COULD SEE SLIGHT DIURNAL UPTICK THIS
AFTERNOON/DECREASE AFTER SUNSET ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
KS. AFTER BRIEF REPRIEVE...INCREASE 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KS COULD GENERATE MORE STORMS THAT WOULD
MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS.

THU:
STORMS/SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY PERSIST INTO MID MORNING ACROSS THE
WEST. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THERE WOULD BE SUFFICE LIFT TO
GENERATE/SUSTAIN PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS PORTEND
RELATIVELY WEAK/CHAOTIC FLOW WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT BREAK CAPPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR STORMS THU NIGHT LOOK LESS LIKELY IN
ABSENCE OF GOOD RETURN FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION.

FRI:
WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCES GOING ON FRI DURING THE DAY AS
RETURN FLOW BECOMES A BIT BETTER ESTABLISHED IN THE WEST. NOT
PARTICULARLY OPTIMISTIC...BUT NOT READY TO FLIP-FLOP FORECAST
EITHER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF FRONT
ON SUN-MON...WHICH CASTS DOUBTS ON BOTH TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...OPTED TO NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AT MIDDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
MISSOURI...SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS...TO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE
STALLING TONIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE
FRONT. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  70  85  69 /  50  20  20  10
HUTCHINSON      86  67  84  68 /  70  20  20  10
NEWTON          86  67  84  68 /  70  20  20  10
ELDORADO        87  68  84  68 /  50  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  86  70 /  30  20  20  10
RUSSELL         85  65  88  68 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      84  66  86  68 /  30  30  30  10
SALINA          86  67  87  67 /  30  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       85  67  84  67 /  60  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     93  71  87  70 /  30  20  20  10
CHANUTE         89  69  86  68 /  30  20  10  10
IOLA            87  68  85  68 /  40  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    92  70  87  69 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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