Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 210824
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
324 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue early this morning, for
areas mainly east of the KS turnpike.  This large area of convection
is right along the 850-700h baroclinic zone, aided by the right exit
region of the upper level jet currently moving across the southern
Great Lakes.  Expect this area of showers and embedded thunderstorms
to continue across southern KS for a good portion of the morning
hours as this first wave and jet streak shifts east of the area.

Another stronger impulse currently moving across the Rockies will
rapidly move out into the plains for later today into this
afternoon/evening, with lift associated with this shortwave leading
to showers and embedded thunderstorms becoming more widespread
across the area for the afternoon into this evening. Already seeing
signs of this second system, with showers/storms increasing across
the Tx panhandle. Left front quad of this approaching system will
lead to very efficient rainfall across most of the area later today,
which may lead to periods of heavy rainfall, with the heaviest
rainfall amounts expected late this afternoon, especially for areas
from Wichita east to Chanute. Fairly impressive effective shear (60-
85kts) as this system moves across, but better instability for a
severe storm chance remains well south of the forecast area. So
could see a few strong storms along the KS/OK border, as strong
effective shear/steep lapse rates lead to a few strong updrafts, but
think the main severe chance will stay well south of the area. Some
of the latest Hi-rez models suggest that a large bowing segment will
move across OK this afternoon.  Plan on keeping the areal flood
watch as is, as some areas may see an additional 1 to 2 inches of
QPF as this secondary system moves across, which could lead to some
minor flooding of low lying areas and creeks and streams.

The widespread showers and embedded storms will lead to a cool temp
day, with temps struggling to make it out of the middle 50s with
east to northeast surface flow.

The rapid progression of the shortwave will lead to most of the
showers and embedded storms shifting to the east, as this evening
progresses, with some areas across Central KS actually picking up
their rainfall late this evening as the main trowal axis moves
across Central KS.

The rain will gradually taper off early Saturday morning over
southeast Kansas. Expect a coolish weekend as a weak upper level
ridge moves across the area with north-northeast surface flow. Main
surface ridge axis looks to move across the forecast area on Sunday
morning, which may lead to some patchy frost over Central Kansas.
But expect a pleasant weather day on Sunday with light winds and
seasonal temps.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Zonal flow will lead to dry and warm conditions for the start of the
work week.  Low level moisture will be slow to return, with a weak
shortwave moving across the northern plains, leading to cold front
sagging south across the area for Tue. Not expecting alot of shower
activity as this front pushes south, as better moisture will remain
to the south of the area.  Medium range models suggest flow will
gradually shift to more of a W-SW flow pattern by the middle of next
week, which will lead to thunderstorm chances increasing for
Wed/Thu as low level moisture quality improves.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Aviation concerns will be storm chances along with gradually
lowering ceilings.

Showers and storms developed a few hours ago over northern OK and
moved into southern KS as isentropic lift increased along the 305k
surface. Areal coverage is expected to slowly expand overnight
with areas generally along the KS/OK border seeing the greatest
coverage. Some small hail can`t be ruled out of the stronger
storms. KCNU and KICT still look to be the sites most affected
overnight with high confidence that VFR ceilings will remain
through at least 12z. Showers and storms will continue to expand
in coverage Fri as upper dynamics approach the area with some MVFR
ceilings starting to affect southern KS by late Fri morning.
Confidence in IFR ceilings isn`t high enough to run with at this
point.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    55  44  58  39 /  80  90  20   0
Hutchinson      54  42  59  37 /  80  90  20   0
Newton          54  42  57  37 /  80  80  30   0
ElDorado        55  43  57  38 /  80  80  30   0
Winfield-KWLD   56  44  58  39 /  90  80  20   0
Russell         55  41  60  37 /  80  60   0   0
Great Bend      53  40  59  36 /  80  80  10   0
Salina          57  43  61  38 /  70  70  10   0
McPherson       55  42  59  37 /  70  80  20   0
Coffeyville     58  46  57  40 / 100  80  30  10
Chanute         56  44  56  39 /  90  90  40  10
Iola            56  44  56  39 /  80  90  40  10
Parsons-KPPF    57  45  56  39 / 100  80  40  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ069>072-083-092>096-
098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...RBL



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