Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 220844

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
344 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Lots of cirrus debris from last nights supercell in NW KS continues
to spread across the forecast area early this morning, with the best
moisture transport streaming north across wrn KS into wrn Neb.
Expect this moisture transport and warm advection to stay well west
of the area this morning, with chance of any isolated storms in Cen
KS looking less and less.  So will cut back on pops with only some
slight pops left in Cen KS in case a stray shower/storm develops.

Warming trend will continue today, with a little more afternoon
sunshine than in previous days.  So plan on going with the warmer
end of the model forecast temps, with some locations reaching 80.
The warm advection will also lead to a moderate to unstable airmass
returning to the wrn half of the forecast area today, but it will
also lead to a fairly warm elevated mixed layer (EML), which will
keep any convective chances capped off for this afternoon with storm
chances confined to areas well west of the forecast area, where the
dryline is expected to be lurking. Will keep some low pops across
Cen KS for the evening hours, with the dryline expected to be a
little closer to Central KS, could see some of the strong/severe
storms expected along the dryline propagate east into portions of
Central KS by this eve.

Lots of uncertainty on how the overnight will play out, as most
of the short term models suggest moisture transport and the low
level jet will shift most of the late night convection into NEB,
with Srn Neb the more probable location for a complex of storms
getting going, which would suggest current pops in Cen KS are
waayy too high. This complex of storms will be supported by this
strengthening and veering low level jet, which will eventually
take this complex of storms (MCS) into NE KS (on the NE fringes of
the forecast area). Southern edge of this moisture transport may
lead to scattered showers/storms across portions of Cen KS early
Mon morning (actually backbuilding possibly into areas NE of
KICT), so will keep pops in the likely category for this chance,
but reduce pops further south and southwest.

Mon-Tue: Could see some remnants from the MCS linger across NE KS
and possibly SE KS for the morning hours on Mon, with diminishing
storms by midday. There is some concern that the morning MCS may
produce a southward moving rain cooled outflow boundary into Cen
KS (which the hi-res models arent handling too well). Rich gulf
moisture (noticeably more humid!!) is expected to be located just
to the south of this boundary, and just to the east of the dryline
that is expected to inch closer to the wrn fringes of the forecast
by Mon afternoon. A strong cap will keep most locations dry for
Mon afternoon, but convergence along the dryline will help erode
the cap enough for storms to develop across wrn sections of the
forecast area for late Mon afternoon/evening.

practically the same setup will be in place for Tue with the dryline
inching a little further east for Tue afternoon into wrn sections of
the forecast area, with the capping EML again limiting convective
chances until heating/convergence is maximized along the dryline.
But think convection will again become widespread for late Tue
afternoon/evening especially for areas west of I-135.

The very unstable airmass, mentioned above, (with MLCAPE values of
3500-4000 j/kg on Mon and possibly near 4000 on Tue) and 30-40 kts
of bulk shear suggests a threat of severe supercell thunderstorms
BOTH days, with large hail/damaging winds the main concern. Given
the above mentioned outflow boundary on Mon, could see a triple
point set up across portions of Cen KS, which would suggest a
limited window for a tornado or two in Central KS on Mon aftn/eve.
GFS continues to suggest parameters are increasing for a possible
tornado threat on Tue as well, but directional shear may limit the
tornado threat, but certainly worth a mention in the hazardous
weather outlook for both days. Stay tuned.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

The unsettled weather pattern looks to continue for the rest of
the work week, with placement of the dryline/boundary being
problematic given convective influences. But current GFS suggests
the dryline may push east of I-135 for Wed/Thu afternoon/evenings.
This will lead to the ern half of KS seeing the highest pops for
this time frame, but most locations will see storm chances, with
the rich gulf moisture (humid conditions!!) remaining across the



.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

CIGS will lower into the MVFR category for most areas along
and west of the Kansas turnpike overnight, though the higher
terrain of central Kansas at KGBD and KRSL may flirt with IFR
toward dawn. Otherwise, a moist southeast near surface flow will
continue across the area. Convective chances will remain
relatively low so will omit from the terminals for now.



Wichita-KICT    81  66  77  67 /  10  40  20  40
Hutchinson      80  66  79  65 /  10  40  20  40
Newton          80  66  77  65 /  10  40  30  40
ElDorado        81  66  78  67 /  10  40  40  40
Winfield-KWLD   81  66  79  68 /  10  40  20  40
Russell         81  66  82  62 /  20  50  20  40
Great Bend      80  66  83  63 /  20  40  20  30
Salina          82  67  79  65 /  20  50  40  50
McPherson       79  67  78  65 /  20  50  30  50
Coffeyville     81  66  79  67 /  10  20  50  40
Chanute         82  65  78  66 /  10  20  50  40
Iola            82  65  78  66 /  10  20  60  40
Parsons-KPPF    81  65  79  67 /  10  20  50  40


.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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