Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 280428
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1128 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

TONIGHT-THU:
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT AREA...AND PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE
PRECIPITATION WILL WANE AND/OR EXIT BY 0000 UTC. DECREASING
WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY COOL NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES ACROSS AREA ON THU WITH LIGHT WINDS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND ON TUE WITH A BIT MORE INSOLATION.

THU NIGHT:
DETAILS A BIT FUZZY...BUT APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE
THU AFTERNOON ALONG DRYLINE  WHICH WILL BE WELL SOUTHWEST OF
AREA. DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW
STORMS TO MOVE NE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN
PRECIPITATION WOULD ARRIVE GIVEN SLOWER FLOW ALOFT AND DECREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...BUT WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT IN FAR WEST...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY WEST OF FLINT HILLS.

FRI-FRI NIGHT:
WITH INFLUX OF MOISTURE...ANTICIPATE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND MAINLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. THE BIGGER CONCERN IS THE INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FRI EVENING...WITH AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE
STORMS LOOKING PROBABLE. CAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KILOGRAM
WITH 0-6 SHEAR OVER 60 KTS. MIDDLE LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON GFS
IS CONSIDERABLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL THAN THE NAM. THERE
IS ALSO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THE
FRONT/DRYLINE AND SURFACE LOW...BUT CONSENSUS WOULD PUT AT LEAST
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA AT RISK. DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND
INFLUX OF MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENCE
ARE MAXIMIZED.

SAT:
LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR GREATER
IN THE NE HALF OF AREA...WHERE MODELS OVERLAP BEST QPF. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

WESTERN US UPPER TROUGH WILL RELOAD EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF
EJECTS TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS WHILE GFS FILLS LOW WHILE LAGGING OVER
THE WESTERN US. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL GO ALONG WITH
INITIALIZATION CONSENSUS...WITH CAVEAT THAT TEMPERATURES COULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER IF DRIER/MORE DOWNSLOPE ECMWF VERIFIES LATE
IN THE PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE MAIN CONCERN GOING INTO THU WILL BE A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE
EAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THU AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS. EXPECT SOME INCREASING LOW
CLOUDS IN CENTRAL KS BY LATE THU NIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE BEYOND
THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

KETCHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

LITTLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS PERIOD GIVEN RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND GREENUP ACROSS THE AREA. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    43  70  51  67 /   0   0  50  50
HUTCHINSON      42  69  49  62 /   0   0  50  60
NEWTON          42  68  48  65 /   0   0  40  50
ELDORADO        43  69  49  67 /  10   0  40  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   44  72  52  70 /   0   0  50  50
RUSSELL         39  64  44  56 /   0   0  50  60
GREAT BEND      40  65  46  57 /   0  10  60  70
SALINA          41  67  46  63 /  10   0  40  50
MCPHERSON       41  68  47  62 /   0   0  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     46  73  54  71 /  10   0  20  40
CHANUTE         45  71  51  69 /  10   0  20  40
IOLA            45  70  50  68 /  10   0  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    46  71  53  70 /  10   0  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...BDK
FIRE WEATHER...PJH



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