Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 150935
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
335 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 335 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Forecast Headlines/Highlights:
1) Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for areas roughly
along & northeast of a line from around Russell, to McPherson, El
Dorado & Cedar Vale until noon today.

2) Dangerous wind chills still scheduled for all areas from Monday
Night until late Tuesday Morning.

Today:
Arctic Front that has been a major topic for almost a week crossed
the Nebraska/KS state line just after mid-night. NW-SE oriented
snowband has shifted into KS, extending from around KGLD to around
Ottawa while areas of light rain continue across South-Central and
Southeast KS. The front will continue to surge almost due south &
will cross the KS/OK state line early this morning. As the Arctic
Front crosses the KS/OK state line the post-frontal light snow
would likewise shift south & south/southeast & would be confined
to OK & Southern MO by midday. With the greater accumulations
slated for the areas identified in the "Forecast Headlines" will
continue the Winter Weather Advisory for these areas. (Although
it`s likely the advisory may be cancelled for the Central KS
counties by 9 AM CST.

Tonight & Tue:
The STRONG Arctic High, which covers nearly all of Saskatchewan as
well as Western Manitoba, will drift S/SE & would cover all of the
Northern & Central Plains by Tue morning. Temperatures plunging
into an abyss coupled with north winds from generally 10 to 15 mph
induced by the strong Arctic High will of course produce dangerous
wind chills in all areas tonight & Tue morning. With the projected
wind chills now expected to drop to around 15 below along the OK
border have expanded the Wind Chill Advisory across the remainder
of the forecast area. For sake of consistency the duration of the
advisory remains intact from 6 PM until 11 AM.

Tue Night:
We`ll continue to `chill out` as the Arctic High continues to
drift further across KS & MO. Although winds will become light &
variable, wind chills close to 15 below are still likely across
Central KS with wind chills from 6 to 12 below projected across
South-Central KS.

Wed & Wed Night:
Temps will begin to recover as the weakening high pressure center
drifts just east of KS to enable southerly winds (albeit 5 to 15
mph) to return.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Thu-Sat:
Nice warmup occurs across the KS Neighborhood as a surface trough
deepens from the northwestern plains to eastern NM. Highs will be
in the 50s areawide on Sat with OK-bordering areas approaching 60.

Rest Of Next Weekend:
The afore-mentioned Western Plains surface trough will undergo
rapid cyclogenesis in response to a rapidly strengthening upper-
deck wave that`ll dig across the Desert Southwest Sat Night & Sun.
This would force the surface low east into KS & OK Sat Night &
Sun. There is disagreement between the GFS (stronger & further
north over KS) & ECMWF (weaker & centered over the Western Red
River) Sat Night & early Sun. This would drag a cold front SE
across most of KS late Sat Night & Sun Morning. This front won`t
be nearly as strong as its predecessor but areas of light rain are
possible Sat evening with Central KS experiencing a change to
light snow while a light rain/light snow mixture is anticipated
for South-Central & part of Southeast KS Sun Morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Expect deteriorating aviation conditions overnight, as another
arctic cold front pushes south across the area. The cold front is
currently located from KGBD to just north of KEMP. As the front
pushes across central KS, expect cigs to drop to MVFR for the KSLN
and KRSL tafs in the next few hours. Will also see a large area of
post frontal precip move south as well, with rain rapidly changing
to snow with vsbys quickly dropping to MVFR in the heavier snow
bands. Will add a tempo group for the heavier snow with vsbys around
1SM.

Expect this deteriorating trend to continue to trek to the south,
during the early morning hours on Mon, with most locations dropping
to MVFR for Cigs, with MVFR vsbys as well, as the quick changeover
from rain to snow moves south-southeast. There is some potential for
some IFR cigs in the heavier snow bands, near KICT and KGBD, but
will not mention this in the tafs until the heavier snow bands
materialize.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    25   0  14   2 /  60   0   0   0
Hutchinson      22  -2  13  -1 /  40   0   0   0
Newton          21  -3  11  -1 /  40   0   0   0
ElDorado        22  -2  12   1 /  60   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   28   1  15   2 /  60   0   0   0
Russell         18  -4  13   0 /  20   0   0   0
Great Bend      21  -3  15   0 /  30   0   0   0
Salina          17  -4  13  -2 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       19  -4  12  -2 /  30   0   0   0
Coffeyville     28   2  15   1 /  80   0   0   0
Chanute         23  -1  13   0 /  60   0   0   0
Iola            21  -3  12   0 /  50   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    26   1  14   0 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ032-033-048-
049-051>053-068>072-094>096-098>100.

Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Tuesday
for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...Ketcham



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