Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 182341
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
641 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

TONIGHT-TUE: WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY
WASHED OUT...NOW LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG I-70 THIS AFTERNOON. A VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS POOLING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THIS WEAK
SYNOPTIC FEATURE...BUT AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER HAS KEPT ANY CU
DEVELOPMENT OR CONVECTION FOR THAT MATTER AT BEY SO FAR...AS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT TO HELP WEAKEN THE CAP IS HARD TO DECIDER. STORM
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THIS WEAK OUTFLOW
WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON WHETHER CAP CAN WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR
STORMS TO FORM. CAP IS HOLDING VERY STRONG....SO THINK CONVECTIVE
CHANCES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AREA. THINK
EVEN SLIMMER CHANCES WILL EXIST FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KS...AS CAP HOLDS TIGHT.

IF A STORM CAN GET GOING EARLY THIS EVENING...BULK SHEAR AROUND 40
KTS AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CERTAINLY LEAD TO A SEVERE
CHANCE FROM DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...GIVEN THE INVERTED-V FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.

BEST CHANCE OF STORMS MAY BE LATE THIS EVENING (AFTER 04-06Z) ALONG
I-70 AND THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR KMHK AS LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES IN THIS AREA...AND 850-700H FN-CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG THE 310-315K ISENTROPIC LAYER. IF CONVECTION CAN GET
GOING IN THIS AREA...PREVAILING STORM MOTION PROPAGATES THIS
CONVECTION DUE SOUTH ALONG THE FLINT HILLS AND INTO SE KS OVERNIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. SO WILL KEEP SOME SOLID CHANCE POPS GOING IN THIS
AREA INTO TUE MORNING.

THINK STORMS WILL EITHER MOVE INTO THIS AREA...OR POSSIBLY DEVELOP
OVER SE KS BY TUE MORNING AROUND 12Z...AS 310-315K ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE FLINT HILLS FOR TUE MORNING.

WARM AIR ALOFT LOOKS TO BUILD EVEN STRONGER FOR THE REST OF
TUE...WHICH WILL ESSENTIALLY CAP OFF ANY KIND OF CONVECTIVE CHANCES
FOR TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING. STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ON TUE NIGHT..WILL BE FOCUSED WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

WED-FRI: THE THEME FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE `THE HEAT IS
ON`. THE NW FLOW PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN CONTROL FOR THE LAST
WEEK OR SO...WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO MORE OF A SW FLOW
PATTERN...WITH STOUT WARM ADVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK...WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE.

A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS TO A MINIMUM FOR
THE WED-FRI TIME FRAME...WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED CHANCE ALONG THE
EDGE OF THIS WARM LAYER ALOFT.  SO WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT POPS ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHERE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW LEVEL
JET WILL FOCUS EACH NIGHT.

SAT-SUN: A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT OF THE SW US FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR SAT/SUN. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. NOT THINKING WEEKEND
WILL BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...AS THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST...GIVEN THE WEAK CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
FOR THE WEEKEND. BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS
IN THE LOWER 90S.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. EXPECTING MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND ONCE AGAIN THAT
ACTIVITY COULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  97  75  98 /  20  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      70  98  75  98 /  20  10  10  10
NEWTON          69  97  75  97 /  30  10  10  10
ELDORADO        68  98  75  98 /  30  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  98  76  98 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         71  96  74  97 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      68  96  74  97 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          71  98  75 100 /  30  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       70  97  75  98 /  30  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     70  98  76  98 /  30  30  10  10
CHANUTE         67  97  75  97 /  40  30  10  10
IOLA            69  97  75  97 /  40  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    69  98  75  98 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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