Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 180509
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1209 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Main challenge is chances for elevated convection tonight/Friday
morning and then potential for severe surface based storms late
Friday afternoon/evening. Moisture transport within the 850-700mb
layer will result in modest elevated instability overnight across
central Kansas. Proximity to the right entrance region of a 300mb
jet maximum and modest low level jet should aid lift to promote
widely scattered storms. Some of this activity could linger into
late Friday morning before waning. Attention will then turn to the
southward moving cold front associated with the upper trof diving
across the Upper Midwest late Friday afternoon/evening. Diurnal
heating with return of upper 60s/near 70F dewpoints will result in
a very unstable airmass at peak heating along and east of the
turnpike. Deep layer shear in the northwest upper flow regime
looks to peak during the early evening as well, which will support
strong to severe storms. While the weekend looks generally very
warm and dry, low level moisture looks to return across eastern
Kansas in the developing southerly flow. Some elevated convection
is possible over north central Kansas Saturday night. Cannot rule
out a few diurnal surface based storms later in the weekend,
though lack of focus should limit to an isolated nature.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Monday, otherwise known as the day of the total eclipse, looks to
remain very warm and mainly dry. Some late day convection is
possible coming off the high Plains into central Kansas. A more
amplified upper trough still looks to develop across the Great
Lakes by Tuesday and Wednesday, which should allow a cold front
to settle south across Kansas. So will continue to carry modest
chance PoPs with the frontal passage and slight cooling in its
wake.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Main concern continues to be the thunderstorm potential. RAP/HRRR
seemingly have a decent handle on ongoing convection. This would
push storms across KRSL/KGBD and KSLN over the next few hours,
with lower probabilities at KHUT and KICT where chances will be
limited to VCTS for now. Forecast becomes increasingly challenging
tomorrow with models showing significantly differ speeds/
locations for cold front in the afternoon. This will have big
impact on storm potential at KHUT/KICT and eventually KCNU. Opted
to go a bit slower than the RAP and a bit faster than the GFS.
This puts KICT on the cusp of convective development in the
afternoon. Highest probability at KCNU will be in the evening, but
outside chance that a few storms could develop in peak heating
ahead of the front. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    67  92  68  93 /  30  30  40   0
Hutchinson      66  93  66  94 /  30  30  20   0
Newton          66  91  66  92 /  30  30  30   0
ElDorado        66  90  67  92 /  20  30  40   0
Winfield-KWLD   67  91  68  93 /  20  30  40   0
Russell         65  93  63  95 /  30  20   0   0
Great Bend      66  94  64  95 /  40  20  10   0
Salina          67  94  64  95 /  30  30  10   0
McPherson       65  93  64  94 /  30  30  20   0
Coffeyville     64  90  69  92 /  10  20  50  10
Chanute         64  89  67  90 /  10  20  40   0
Iola            64  88  66  89 /  10  30  40   0
Parsons-KPPF    65  90  68  91 /  10  20  50   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...PJH


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