Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
FXUS63 KICT 152131
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
Issued by National Weather Service Topeka KS
331 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017
Tonight through Sunday, split upper level flow will continue
across the central conus. An upper ridge axis within the northern
branch of the jet will move east across the northern and central
plains, while a weak upper level trough embedded in the southern
branch of the jet shifts east across the southern plains.
Thursday and Friday, a surface trough will extend from the upper
midwest, southwest into the southern high plains. The surface
pressure gradient will cause southwest winds to increase to 15 to
20 MPH with some gusts of 25 to 30 MPH across the eastern half of
the CWA during the afternoon hours. The WAA on Thursday will help
to warm highs into upper 60s to lower 70s.
Saturday, the weak upper trough embedded within the southern
stream upper level jet will shift east-northeast across TX and OK.
At this time the moisture return looks insufficient to produce
showers, even though there will be some weak ascent across the CWA
on the north edge of the upper trough. Highs on Saturday will be
slightly cooler with mid to upper 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 330 PM
CST Wed Feb 15 2017
An upper level trough will move onshore across southern CA Sunday
morning and shift east across the desert southwest and into the
southern high plains by Sunday night. The upper trough will move
east across the southern and central plains Monday into Tuesday.
The GFS is slower with the progression of the upper trough to the
east with the GEM being the most progressive. The ECMWF shows the
upper trough amplifying across southeast TX Tuesday morning. The
best chance for rainshowers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
will be Sunday night into Monday morning. Just in case the GFS
turns out to be more accurate I kept chances for post frontal
rainshowers to continue across the eastern half of the CWA into
Tuesday Afternoon. However, if the GEM and ECMWF solutions verify
then the rain chances may end Monday afternoon. Increased cloud
cover will keep highs in the mid to upper 60s Monday and Tuesday.
Wednesday will be mostly sunny with Highs in the mid to upper 60s.
The combination of dry fuels, Relative humidity in the 20 to 25
percent range and southwest wind gusts of 25 to 30 MPH will create
an extreme fire weather danger along and east of a Cottonwood
Falls to Winfield line. Forecast soundings for Thursday afternoon
show steep low-level lapse rates up to 880MB. If the mixing is
deeper, then the Relative Humidity will be lower and the wind
gusts may be closer to 30 MPH.
Fire Weather Watch...along and east of a Cottonwood Falls to