000
FXUS63 KICT 232014
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
314 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Forecast highlights:  the potential for widespread, significant
rainfall amounts over eastern Kansas this weekend, followed by much
cooler, drier air Sunday into early next week.

A strong upper low/trough over the Rockies will advance eastward
across the Plains this weekend, with the southern part of this
trough breaking off and drifting southwestward, while the remainder
lifts northeastward. An anomalously rich, precipitable water airmass
(as sampled by downstream RAOBS in Texas early this morning),
will advect northward into Kansas ahead of the upper trough and attendant
cold front. Moisture transport, isentropic lift, and upper-level
diffluent flow, will result in scattered showers/thunderstorms
developing after midnight tonight, mainly west of the Kansas
Turnpike. Convection should become more numerous across much of
the forecast area Saturday morning into the afternoon hours, with
cloud cover and convection likely resulting in limited pockets of
weak-moderate instability. A few strong storms cannot be ruled
out in Central Kansas late Saturday afternoon/early eve, near a
pre-frontal trough/wind shift, although deep layer shear vectors
of 25-35 knots are near parallel to the boundary favoring
multi-cell storms with perhaps isolated strong wind gusts. The
main cold front is progged to move southeastward across
central/eastern Kansas late Saturday night through midday Sunday,
with the right-rear quadrant of a strong upper jet streak over
the region. This should result in widespread showers/thunderstorms
with heavy rain at times. The rain chances will gradually diminish
from northwest to southeast Sunday into Sunday night. Storm total
rainfall projections of 1 to 3 inches are slated, with the highest
amounts in south-central/southeast Kansas. Rain totals are
expected to be less than 1 inch over roughly the northwest half of
Kansas.

Much cooler, drier air will spread southward into the region behind
the cold front Sunday through Monday with below normal
temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

ECMWF, GFS, GFS ensemble data were in better agreement with the
medium range today than as of late leading to medium forecast
confidence.

Low-mid level high pressure should keep the Central Plains dry
Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures slowly moderating toward
seasonal normals by Wednesday. The remnants of the southern closed
low (from this weekends trough), are progged to eject northeastward
out across the Central Plains late in the week. Combined with
marginal moisture return, this may be enough for slight chances of
showers/thunderstorms for Thursday/Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

VFR conditions are likely at all sites through this evening. Low
level moisture will continue to stream north tonight, with
precipitation likely breaking out in the vicinity of KRSL/KGBD
before 1200 UTC.  Precipitation could start as early as 0600 UTC,
but chances high enough to mention are closer to 1200 UTC. Some
chance that MVFR ceilings could develop around daybreak with
increasing low level moisture, but at this point, only NAM is
hinting at they would be that low. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  84  63  73 /  30  60  80  50
Hutchinson      71  83  61  73 /  40  60  80  30
Newton          71  83  62  73 /  30  60  80  50
ElDorado        71  83  64  72 /  20  60  80  70
Winfield-KWLD   72  84  65  73 /  20  60  80  70
Russell         68  83  55  73 /  50  50  50  10
Great Bend      68  83  57  73 /  50  50  50  10
Salina          71  83  60  74 /  30  60  80  30
McPherson       70  83  60  73 /  30  60  80  30
Coffeyville     70  87  67  74 /  10  40  80  90
Chanute         69  85  66  72 /  10  40  80  90
Iola            69  84  66  72 /  10  40  80  90
Parsons-KPPF    69  87  67  73 /  10  40  80  90

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...PJH