000
FXUS63 KICT 101125
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
625 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO FEED INTO CENTRAL
KS...WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING INTO NW KICT.  THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MAIN THETA-E AXIS SITUATED FROM
KGBD TO KICT. MUCAPE VALUES AND DECENT BULK SHEAR SUGGEST THAT THIS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MORNING HOURS...TRAINING TO THE SE
TOWARDS KWLD. SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST...MAY
LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING THREAT...
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

THINK THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG THIS THETA-E
GRADIENT UNTIL AT LEAST 14Z...WHEN SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THETA-E
AXIS AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO AREAS EAST OF
KSLN TO KICT LINE FOR THE LATE MORNING HOURS.  WILL GO WITH FAIRLY
HEALTHY POPS FOR THE MORNING GIVEN THIS CONVECTION....WITH A GRADUAL
SHIFT OF THE POPS INTO THE FLINT HILLS FOR THE NOON TIME
HOURS.

THINK MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST INTO NE KS
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING A RETURN TO
SUNSHINE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT HOW GOOD
THE TEMP RECOVERY WILL BE FOR AREAS OVER THE FLINT HILLS...SO WILL
TWEAK MAX TEMPS DOWN SOME IN THIS AREA. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
REBOUND NICELY.

FRI-SAT: THE WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE
OF HOT DAYS FOR FRI AND SAT. LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE TO THE S-SW...WHICH WILL LEAD TO BETTER
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRIER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WORKING INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS CLIMBING CLOSE TO THE CENTURY MARK FOR
CENTRAL KS. NOT TOO SURE WE WILL MAKE 100...AS ALOT OF THE HEATING
WILL GO INTO BURNING OFF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/SURFACE
DEWPOINTS...UNLESS BETTER MIXING DEVELOPS. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT
WILL ALSO EFFECTIVELY CAP OFF ANY STORM CHANCES...AS 700H TEMPS
WARM TO PLUS 12-14 FOR FRI. THINK MOST OF THE AREA WILL ALSO
REMAIN CAPPED FOR SAT...WITH ANY CHANCE OF CONVECTION STAYING
ALONG OR NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

FLOW ACTUALLY SHIFTS TO MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND...AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
AS THIS FLOW SHIFTS...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SUN/MON. NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WILL BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS CONVERGENCE ISNT THAT GREAT...OR FOR
THAT MATTER WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL ACTUALLY BE LOCATED. SO WILL
KEEP THE POPS LOW FOR NOW.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A PUSH OF DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO UNSEASONABLY COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA...WITH MOST
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING SOUTH INTO OK. WILL
LEAVE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS SRN KS FOR COORDINATION SAKE...BUT
COULD SEE POPS COMPLETELY REMOVED WITH LATER FORECASTS IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS TREND.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITHIN STRATIFORM RAIN ON NORTH SIDE OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING. LOCALLY
REDUCED VSBYS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
GREATEST IMPACT AT KICT. OTHERWISE GENERAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  73  96  75 /  90   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      88  73  95  75 /  80   0  10  10
NEWTON          86  72  95  75 /  80   0  10  10
ELDORADO        85  72  95  75 /  80   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   89  73  96  75 /  90   0  10  10
RUSSELL         92  75  98  75 /  40  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      93  75  97  75 /  50   0  10  10
SALINA          87  74  96  75 /  80  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       87  73  95  75 /  80  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     87  73  97  74 /  60  10  10  10
CHANUTE         85  72  96  74 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            85  72  96  73 /  40  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    86  72  96  74 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$