Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 280441
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1141 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Water vapor imagery shows strong jet energy nosing into the
central/southern Rockies with additional shortwave energy lifting
over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, low pressure is
strengthening over southeast CO/northeast NM with ridging through
the Mississippi Valley.

Strong shortwave energy will continue to stream out of the
northern intermountain and into the central/southern Plains
tonight, resulting in strong mid level theta-e advection lifting
north. So should see some showers and iso thunder across much of
the area but should quickly lift north, and after midnight,
should mostly be affecting northern KS. Fairly pleasant conditions
are setting up for Fri across most of the area, with the warm
front generally along the KS/Nebraska border, leaving the forecast
area in the capped warm sector. So, expecting some sunshine and
near normal temps during the day Fri.

More robust piece of energy is expected to approach the southern
high Plains Fri night and track across northern TX/OK Sat into Sat
night. As this occurs, very strong 850-700mb moisture transport
is expected to overspread OK, se KS and the Ozark Region with an
extremely moist airmass in place. Models have been consistent in
advertising PW in the 1.5-2" range which is around 200% of normal
for this time of year. The highest confidence in flooding still
remains from eastern OK into northern AR and into southern MO. In
these locations we could be looking at 6+ inches of rainfall from
Fri night through Sat night. Some of these higher totals may clip
a few of our far se KS counties, so threw Labette and Neosho into
a flood watch.

Over the remainder of the forecast area, we should be looking at
widespread 1-2.5 inch rainfall amounts. While this may not result
in flash flooding, it may send a handful of rivers into minor
flood late this weekend. On the backside of this system, not out
of the question we may see some snow mix-in with the rain late Sat
night and again late Sun night across central KS. At this time it
looks like the lowest 2,000ft should remain warm enough to limit
accumulation.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

By 12z Mon, the upper low will be lifting over the mid Mississippi
Valley with the wrap around precip exiting northeast KS. We look
to remain in a cool progressive pattern with yet another piece of
energy diving south across the central Rockies Tue night and into
the high Plains Wed. This feature may bring some rainfall chances
to southern KS but the better chances look to be south. However,
confidence is high that this feature will keep the trend of below
normal temps going.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Decaying convective complex across northwest Kansas will move
east across north central Kansas and affect the KRSL and perhaps
KSLN terminal just after the 06z forecast valid time. Brief gusty
winds can be expected. Scattered elevated convection will affect
the rest of south central and southeast Kansas. Otherwise,
IFR/LIFR cigs expected to develop across central Kansas overnight
with MVFR cigs in southeast Kansas. A steady improvement to VFR is
expected for most areas by midday on Friday. A cold front will
sag southward across central Kansas by late afternoon and into
southern Kansas by Friday evening.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    49  72  46  50 /  50  10  70 100
Hutchinson      47  70  43  47 /  60  10  80 100
Newton          48  71  43  47 /  60  10  70 100
ElDorado        49  72  46  51 /  60  10  70  90
Winfield-KWLD   50  73  49  53 /  40  10  80  90
Russell         44  63  39  42 /  70  20  80 100
Great Bend      44  66  40  42 /  60  10  80 100
Salina          48  65  43  46 /  90  10  70 100
McPherson       48  69  43  46 /  70  10  70 100
Coffeyville     53  73  55  61 /  50  10  80 100
Chanute         51  72  51  57 /  60  10  80 100
Iola            51  71  50  56 /  70  10  80 100
Parsons-KPPF    52  73  54  59 /  50  10  80 100

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for
KSZ100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...KED


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