000
FXUS63 KICT 161919
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
219 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Tranquil and dry with warm days and cool nights through mid-week.
Fairly zonal west-northwest upper flow regime with a couple weak
perturbations moving across the northern Plains/Midwest through
Tuesday night. A stronger upper shortwave is progged to move
across the Canadian Rockies and amplify over the Prairie provinces
Tuesday night into Wednesday with a deeper closed low over Hudson
Bay by Thursday. While the southern extent of the associated mid
and upper level trof will affect the northern Plains and Midwest,
only a weak surface trof is expected to sag south into central
Kansas by Wednesday night. Therefore, a warming south-southwest
low level flow pattern will prevail the next couple days resulting
in temperatures above mid-October climo, though comfortable. By
Thursday, a stronger upper trof will approach the Pacific
Northwest coast with a weaker lead trof moving over the
central/southern Rockies. An increase in higher level clouds is
expected with this system as the warm southerly low level flow
remains in place across Kansas.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

The upper trof is expected to amplify as it moves east across the
western CONUS through Friday night before sweeping east over the
Plains/Midwest during the weekend. Decent moisture return is
expected ahead of the associated surface cold front for modest to
high precip/convective chances across the eastern half of Kansas.
The modified nature of the mainly Pacific origin airmass in the
wake of the front should only send temperatures back closer to
seasonal climo for Sunday/Monday.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Excellent weather continues for all areas thru Tue afternoon &
likely beyond. A surface trough situated along the Front Range
will slowly force large high pressure east across the lower MS
Valley tonight to induce southerly winds to be sustained ~15kts
across Central & South-Central KS throughout the afternoon &
likely this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    45  74  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      45  75  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          45  73  48  76 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        45  73  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   44  73  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         44  78  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      44  77  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          47  76  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       45  75  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     42  73  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         43  72  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            43  72  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    43  73  47  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...EPS