Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 092140
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
340 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

This afternoon the Arctic High that has been the "Star Of The Show"
all week was centered over Saskatchewan with its attendant ridge
punching SE all the way to the Gulf Coast. As expected, the semi-
inverted ridge is shifting slowly east as a compact surface cyclone
develops over Northeast NM. Both characters have enabled southerly
flow to assert itself across the KS Neighborhood as speeds across
Western and Central KS have increased to 20 to 25 mph in most areas.
Extensive lower level cloudiness is engaging the increasing
southerly winds in a tug-o-war for supremacy on temperatures. The
clouds are winning, as temperatures across KICT Country are in the
25-30F range whereas in Southwest KS and the Panhandles where skies
have cleared the mercury has soared into the lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 340 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

This Weekend:
The thermostat will get turned up considerably for as the inverted
surface ridge continues to be pushed east forming a secondary high
pressure center over the Ohio Valley, the Front Range surface
cyclone will strengthen further to produce stronger southerly flow
across central third of the CONUS. The afore-mentioned surface
cyclone is still scheduled to move east into KS and Western OK on
Sunday. Such behavior would produce a sharp moisture axis that`ll
be aligned from TX, thru Eastern OK, to along the KS/MO state line.
A relatively weak mid-level shortwave moving quite rapidly east
across the Northern and Central Plains will then push a cold front
SE that should extend from near the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the
Central Red River by Sun Evening. Areas of light rain and drizzle
will develop across Eastern KS and most of MO on Sun but will end
by Sun Evening as weak surface high pushes SE into KS Sun Night &
early Mon Morning.

Mon & Mon Night:
With a progressive pattern in place the surface high will scoot
east, crossing the Mississippi Valley around noon. This allow
southerly winds to quickly return to KS to produce one more day of
somewhat balmy weather.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Highlight: Another blast Arctic air set to invade the neighborhood.

Tue-Wed Night:
A vicious polar vortex will push eastsoutheast across Central
Canada on Tue and intensify further as it crosses Ontario Wed and
Wed Night. This would enable another shot of Arctic air to invade
the region. We will "chill out" the most Wed and Wed Night with
highs struggling to reach the mid 20s and lows from 10 to 15,
respectively. Wed may be especially nasty as Northerly 15 to 25
mph winds would certainly put a bite into us. Some post-frontal
light snow will spread across KS late Tue Night and Wed but little
accumulation should result.

Thu-Fri:
All will be quiet as strong high pressure dominates. If the ECMWF
verifies with a more dynamic pattern, i.e. a MUCH STRONGER Arctic
High centered over the Upper Mississippi Valley with a VERY INTENSE
cyclone over the Southern Rockies, Southern KS may see a thaw on
Fri where a more southerly lower-deck flow would reside.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

VFR Stratocu bases-cigs will affect areas west of the Kansas
turnpike until early this evening. Diurnally gusty south to
southeast winds will prevail across central Kansas this afternoon
and again by midday on Saturday.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    21  45  34  48 /   0   0   0  10
Hutchinson      20  44  32  45 /   0   0   0  10
Newton          19  42  33  44 /   0   0   0  10
ElDorado        20  43  34  48 /   0   0  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   22  45  37  51 /   0   0  10  10
Russell         17  40  27  41 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      18  42  28  42 /   0   0   0  10
Salina          17  42  30  42 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       19  43  31  44 /   0   0   0  10
Coffeyville     20  44  37  54 /   0   0  20  30
Chanute         19  43  34  50 /   0   0  10  30
Iola            18  42  32  49 /   0   0  10  30
Parsons-KPPF    20  43  36  53 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...KED


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