Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 071206
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
706 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO HIGH OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING...AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP
WITHIN A 850-700 FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH VERY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT BUT MINIMAL INSTABILITY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

JMC

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION BEGAN TO DIMINISH AROUND 06Z
WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FESTER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A MORE STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME BUILDS
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS ALTHOUGH MUCH OF
THE ACTIVITY MAY BE CONFINED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND TRENDED POPS DOWN THROUGH THE DAY. LIMITED INSOLATION WILL
RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.

TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
KEEPING THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOCUSED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR HEAVIER RAIN
WILL REMAIN. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE TRIMMED
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LIMITED INSOLATION ON WED WILL KEEP
HIGHS WELL BELOW CLIMATE NORMALS WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMNANT FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO ARRIVE WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S/AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS CENTRAL KS ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH
THE MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. RISING
HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RISING TEMPERATURES
WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KS EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT ICT
AND CNU TERMINALS DURING THE DAY JUST NORTH OF A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. POST-
FRONTAL STRATUS WILL AFFECT HUT...ICT...AND CNU TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...AND MAY LIFT SOME...BUT LINGER AT CNU THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER SURGE OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NORTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA
INTO SOUTHEAST KS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE ICT AND
ESPECIALLY CNU TERMINALS.

JMC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  62  77  65 / 100  50  30  40
HUTCHINSON      77  60  78  63 /  60  30  20  50
NEWTON          75  61  75  62 / 100  50  30  40
ELDORADO        75  61  75  64 / 100  70  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  63  77  67 /  80  70  30  40
RUSSELL         78  57  80  62 /  10  10  10  50
GREAT BEND      77  58  80  64 /  10  10  10  50
SALINA          78  59  78  63 /  10  20  20  40
MCPHERSON       76  60  77  63 /  30  30  20  40
COFFEYVILLE     75  66  79  68 /  80  90  60  40
CHANUTE         75  64  76  64 /  80  90  60  40
IOLA            75  64  76  63 /  80  90  60  30
PARSONS-KPPF    75  65  78  67 /  80  90  60  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.

&&

$$


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