000
FXUS63 KICT 272059
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
259 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

CURRENT WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THIS EVENING. THE LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD BE AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTHEAST KS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER INTO MID EVENING BEFORE ISENTROPIC LIFT WINDS DOWN
TEMPORARILY. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A TRACE TO LESS THAN 0.5
INCH.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT OVER THE WESTERN STATES
INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SUNDAY. AN IMPULSE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE KANSAS
REGION ON SATURDAY. DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING WILL DEVELOP
IN THE 280-295K LAYER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT A BATCH OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL SATURDAY EVENING IN PRECIPITATION BEFORE
AN UPPER JET STRENGTHENS CONSIDERABLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS INDICATE A POCKET
OF WARM AIR ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS DUE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 850-700 MB. THIS COULD RESULT IN A WINTRY
MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW FROM ROUGHLY HIGHWAY
400/54 SOUTHWARD...AND MAINLY SNOW NORTH OF THIS LINE. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ICING POTENTIAL CLOSER TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPMENT IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE
UPPER JET LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY AM...AS THIS COULD AUGMENT SNOW
TOTALS HIGHER THAN FORECAST IN A VERY NARROW/LOCALIZED BAND.

BASED ON THE ABOVE EXPECTATIONS OF TWO ROUNDS OF ACCUMULATING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...WE WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADS DUE TO THE SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND ANY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTH.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE FRONT IS THROUGH THE
MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY...BUT QUICKLY...TRAVERSING THE STATE
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT WARM MOIST ADVECTION
WILL BE STRONG WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM NEAR TO ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMS WITH EVEN SOME INSTABILITY POSSIBLE WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE WARM SECTOR.  PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
FRONT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY UNTIL IT IMPACTS THE GREATER MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  COLD AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE
FORECAST.  THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY AND WARM SOME FOR THURSDAY WITH
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD.  BY
FRIDAY RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE...ALLOWING FOR A WARMER
DAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN AREA OF SNOW IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON WHICH IS CAUSING REDUCED VISIBILITIES. MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES ARE OCCURRING AT TIMES...MAINLY AT KICT/KHUT AND WILL
BE FOCUSED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN
ACTIVITY...BUT SOME LOW MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST BEFORE THE
WINTER STORM BEGINS IN FULL SWING. EXPECT THE SNOW TO BEGIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS...IMPACTING KHUT/KICT
FIRST AROUND SUNRISE. EXPECT A DROP IN VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS WHEN
THE SNOW BEGINS...BUT HEAVIER PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS. HAVE TRENDED THAT WAY FOR NOW.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THESE
FACTORS WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LEVELS SUPPRESSED.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    15  28  25  36 /  70  90  70  60
HUTCHINSON      14  27  23  36 /  60  90  70  60
NEWTON          14  26  24  36 /  60  90  80  70
ELDORADO        17  28  25  36 /  60  90  80  70
WINFIELD-KWLD   16  29  26  39 /  70  90  60  60
RUSSELL         12  27  21  34 /  40  70  70  50
GREAT BEND      13  27  23  35 /  60  80  70  50
SALINA          13  28  23  34 /  50  80  80  60
MCPHERSON       13  27  23  35 /  60  90  70  60
COFFEYVILLE     16  31  29  39 /  50  90  80  60
CHANUTE         14  30  27  37 /  50  90  80  80
IOLA            14  29  27  36 /  40 100  80  80
PARSONS-KPPF    15  31  28  39 /  50  90  80  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$