000
FXUS63 KICT 272014
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
314 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Deep upper low continues to spin over the Great Lakes with ridging
over the Great Basin into the Rockies. At the surface, high
pressure is situated over the southern Plains.

Upper low over the Great Lakes will sink south and will be
situated over the Ohio Valley by Wed night. As this occurs, a
reinforcing shot of cold air will push through the forecast area
Wed morning, knocking highs down a few degrees for Wed and
especially Thu. 850mb temps on Thu support highs struggling to
get out of the low 70s. By Thu evening the upper low will be
situated over the Tennessee Valley as upper ridging slides over
the central/southern Plains which will keep rain out of the
forecast through Friday. Upper troughing will slowly approach the
Rockies Fri evening into Sat which will bring increased rain
chances to the Plains for the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

There is good model agreement that by Sat evening a sharp trough
will be approaching the northwest conus and will continue across
the northern Rockies by Mon morning. Mid level warm advection will
increase ahead of the trough Sat into Sat night and will bring
some small rain chances back for Sat night and Sun night with a
possible front bringing another shot for rain Mon into Mon night.
However, confidence is very low with regards to rain chances
through these extended periods as the better upper dynamics remain
north. Temps through these extended periods look to be near or
slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period.
Canadian cold front will drop south across the area late tonight
into Wednesday morning. Generally clear skies with main impact of
the front being wind shift from southwest to north.

KED


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    82  54  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      83  54  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          81  54  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        81  56  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   81  55  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         83  52  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      84  53  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          83  53  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       82  54  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     80  54  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         79  54  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            78  54  70  48 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    79  54  74  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...KED