


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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150 FXUS63 KICT 121708 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1208 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below normal temperatures are expected for much of the area today with highs in the mid and upper 80s. - Hit or miss showers and thunderstorms will linger through the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 A shortwave trough over the Central High Plains during the overnight hours is progged to rotate slowly eastward into the Southern and portions of the Central Plains as we move through the day today. Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing early in southwest Kansas extending SSE into northwest OK with some uncertainty as we move into central KS. The cams continue to show a rapid demise of the High Plains MCS as it rolls eastward during the predawn hours with little large-scale support for redevelopment evident. As we move into the early afternoon hours, the cap is progged to weaken with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms impacting southern Kansas through the afternoon and evening hours as the mid/upper trough rotates over the area. Better support for strong or severe storms is expected to remain south of the area although a rogue strong storm or two may produce some marginally strong wind gusts or small hail in addition to pockets of heavy rain. Limited afternoon insolation and a post- frontal regime will keep highs below normal over the region today with values topping out in the mid and upper 80s for many areas. Some showers and isolated storms may linger over portions of south central and much of southeast KS tonight but strong or severe storms are not anticipated. A weakness in the subtropical ridge will remain over the Southern and portions of the Central Plains as we move into Sun-Tue with a buoyant and weakly capped airmass leading to afternoon showers and storms through the period with the better chances lingering across southeast KS during the afternoon hours. Below normal highs will persist through Tue while gradually climbing back into the lower 90s as head towards the middle of the week. A shortwave trough moving eastward over the Northern Plains by midweek is expected to bring breezy conditions to the area Tue-Wed as the sfc low deepens across the High Plains keeping some diurnal pops in the forecast. Thu-Fri...A frontal boundary sagging into the Central Plains on Thu could be a focus for showers and storms in central KS but confidence in where the boundary will set up remains fairly low at this time. We may finally start to see a break in the action late in the week but forecast confidence remains fairly low. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Overall VFR conditions are expected at all sites for the next 24 hours. An area of showers with some thunder towards our southwest is slowly moving northeast and will most likely impact KICT/KHUT for a few hours this afternoon and a bit later for KCNU. Winds will be northerly at 10 to 15 kts with a few higher gusts with the exception of KCNU where lighter winds should prevail. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWM AVIATION...SGS