000
FXUS63 KICT 261113
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
613 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Main challenge is convective chances/trends and potential for severe
weather by mid-week. Modest lift aided by a shortwave and upper jet
moving across the corn belt in combination with weak mid-level
moisture transport/instability has renewed elevated convection
from central Kansas into Missouri. This will likely persist into
mid-morning before waning by early afternoon. Otherwise, a weak
surface front/trough will drop south across the area late this
afternoon/evening. Despite weak/modest instability, a few
showers/storms can be expected along the boundary, lingering
tonight across far southern Kansas. Mid/upper level ridging will
translate east across the area during Tuesday with a deepening lee
side surface trough resulting in a tightening pressure gradient
and increasing wind across central Kansas. Warmer as well with
maxs closer to seasonal climo on Tuesday. This will be followed by
the start of a more active westerly flow regime aloft which will
begin to affect the central CONUS on Tuesday night and continue
into the latter half of the week. This lead shortwave will force
ascent for convection across the high Plains early Tuesday
evening, with decent elevated moisture transport on a strong
nocturnal low level jet allowing convection and possible MCS to
develop/move eastward across north central Kansas through Tuesday
night. Mesoscale outflow propagating south into central Kansas
could influence convective trends, winds and temperatures along
any resultant boundary through early Wednesday. Otherwise, expect
recovery in the mean southerly low level flow Wednesday afternoon
with even warmer temperatures across the area. Another shortwave
aloft will affect the central Plains Wednesday evening/night. The
effective surface front/trough is expected to be situated across
central Kansas near peak heating with a very unstable airmass
supporting a few locally severe surface based storms. Convection
is also expected to develop/organize a bit further west across the
high Plains Wednesday evening with another MCS propagating east-
southeastward across much of the forecast area on Wednesday night.
The progged shear/instability combo would support nocturnal
severe hail/wind, mainly along/north of highway 50.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

A deeper upper trof is progged to evolve across the northern
Plains into the Upper Midwest late in the week. This will
eventually push the effective surface front south of the area with
modest cooling expected across Kansas. While the better
rain/convective chances should also move south as well, there
remains enough uncertainty to keep at least some mention in across
southern Kansas with generally dry weather for central Kansas by
Friday into Saturday.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Mid level clouds and scattered rain showers will affect the region
through the day and gradually diminish this evening. Light
southeast winds will prevail this morning but should switch
around to the southwest. Meanwhile a weak frontal boundary will
sink southward and cause the winds to switch around to the north
over central Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    84  63  87  71 /  30  30   0  20
Hutchinson      84  62  88  71 /  30  30  10  30
Newton          82  61  86  70 /  30  30   0  30
ElDorado        82  62  85  70 /  30  30   0  20
Winfield-KWLD   84  64  87  71 /  20  30  10  10
Russell         83  61  89  69 /  30  30   0  40
Great Bend      83  62  89  70 /  30  30   0  30
Salina          83  61  89  71 /  30  30   0  50
McPherson       83  61  88  70 /  30  30   0  40
Coffeyville     83  62  86  69 /  20  30  10   0
Chanute         81  60  84  68 /  30  30   0  10
Iola            79  59  84  68 /  30  30   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    82  62  85  69 /  20  30  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...CDJ