Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 181725
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1125 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 244 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Forecast highlights the next 7-10 days: Well above normal
temperatures through Thu, with a cool down by Fri-Sat. Rain
likely Sun evening into Mon, and possibly again Thu-Fri.

Unseasonably warm temperatures, on the order of 20-25 degrees
above normal, will continue the next several days, as the main
polar upper jet and associated cold air remains bottled up across
Canada. An upper low will continue moving over the Southern Plains
and Lower Mississippi River Valley today, with any rain chances
remaining well east of the region.

Model consensus suggests increasing rain and embedded
thunderstorm chances areawide Sun evening, lingering into Mon over
far eastern Kansas, as a deep upper trough approaches from the
west. Despite ample moisture and even some instability, best upper
forcing and associated greatest chances for widespread meaningful
precipitation appears to remain south of the forecast area.
Still, many locations over generally the eastern half of Kansas
could see rainfall amounts up to around one-quarter inch. Not
expecting severe storms given the limited instability despite
modest forcing.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Model consensus and GFS ensembles suggest warm and quiet weather
will likely continue Tue-Wed, as upper ridging builds over Mid-
America. Thereafter, operational model consensus progresses an
energetic shortwave east into Mid-America, increasing
precipitation chances Thu-Fri. Despite poor agreement among the
GFS ensemble members, operational runs are in surprisingly good
agreement surrounding the overall synoptic pattern. At this point,
greatest threat for showers/thunderstorms appears generally
across eastern Kansas Thu night, with a potential
snowstorm/blizzard in the colder air north/northeast of Kansas.
Latest model runs even wrap some snow south into northern/central
Kansas late Thu night-Fri. All-in-all, Still quite a bit of
uncertainty this far out, so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Increasing surface/boundary layer moisture tonight will result in
advection/development of IFR stratus cigs and patchy MVFR fog
vsbys from Oklahoma into southern Kansas and parts of central
Kansas Sunday morning. Some improvement to MVFR cigs is expected
by midday Sunday.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 244 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Warm and breezy weather along with low humidity will support
periodic high to very high grassland fire danger the next several
days. However, winds will likely remain low enough and humidity
high enough to keep fire danger below extreme/critical values for
most days. The strongest winds look to be Mon, Thu and Fri. Rain
chances will increase Sun evening into Mon, especially over
southern and eastern KS, with precipitation chances increasing
again Thu-Fri.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  49  69  53 /   0  10  10  70
Hutchinson      72  48  69  51 /   0  10  10  60
Newton          70  49  67  53 /   0  10  10  70
ElDorado        72  49  69  55 /   0  10  10  70
Winfield-KWLD   69  50  70  55 /   0   0  20  70
Russell         71  45  68  48 /   0  10  10  50
Great Bend      72  46  67  47 /   0  10  10  50
Salina          72  47  70  52 /   0  10  10  60
McPherson       72  48  69  51 /   0  10  10  60
Coffeyville     68  50  73  58 /  10   0  10  70
Chanute         71  48  72  58 /  10   0  10  70
Iola            71  48  72  57 /   0   0  10  60
Parsons-KPPF    69  49  73  58 /  10   0  10  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...ADK



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