Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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282
FXUS63 KICT 071802
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1202 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY
LATE THIS MORNING...AS A STRONG CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS MID-AMERICA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DEEP COLD
ADVECTION AND MIXING UP TO AROUND 700MB SHOULD PROMOTE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH...WITH MAX GUSTS
LIKELY UP AROUND 45 MPH. THEREFORE...HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FROM
GENERALLY THE FLINT HILLS ON WEST NOON-7PM (SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS).

MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...AND IN FACT WIND SPEEDS
MAY BE A BIT HIGHER GIVEN THE DEEP AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW.
FOR NOW...HELD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY DUE TO INTEROFFICE
COLLABORATION CONSTRAINTS. HOWEVER...FULLY ANTICIPATE EITHER
TODAY`S FORECASTER OR SUNDAY NIGHT`S FORECASTER TO HOIST THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MONDAY`S FIRE DANGER.

THE CHILLY MODIFIED POLAR AIR WON`T REALLY ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT-
MONDAY...SO TODAY`S HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE
50S...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. MONDAY HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 30S-40S. ADDITIONALLY...SHOULD SEE POCKETS OF SNOW
FLURRIES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WITH A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
REMAINING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED...A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
EXIST FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEEK`S
END...RANGING FROM 60S OVER WESTERN KANSAS TO 20S- 30S OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI. WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA WILL BE SANDWICHED IN
THE MIDDLE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LOW TO NIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON.

STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA/IA AND WILL DIVE INTO THE OZARK REGION BY MON
MORNING. VERY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
WAVE WILL RESULT IN STRONG NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON WHEN WE REACH OUR FULL MIXING. WINDS AT THE TOP OF
MIXING LAYER TODAY WILL BE AROUND 40 MPH AND AROUND 50 MPH BY MON
AFTERNOON. A LAYER OF CLOUDS IN THE 4,000-7,000 RANGE WILL SPREAD
OVER SOUTHEAST KS(KCNU) AROUND SUNRISE WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH THEY
WILL STAY ABOVE IFR LEVELS.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HOISTED A RED FLAG WARNING NOON-7PM TODAY GENERALLY FROM THE
FLINT HILLS ON WEST DUE TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. EXCLUDED
RUSSELL COUNTY GIVEN ROUGHLY HALF OF THE COUNTY IS STILL SNOW
COVERED. MUCH OF THE SAME AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN AGAIN
TOMORROW (MONDAY)...SO HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. VERY STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
20S-30S PERCENT TO SUPPORT THE EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
TODAY-MONDAY.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  30  43  25 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      51  28  43  25 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          51  28  40  24 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        52  28  41  24 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  29  44  25 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         44  25  35  24 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      47  27  38  25 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          51  28  41  24 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       51  28  40  24 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     58  31  42  26 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         55  30  40  24 /  10  10  10   0
IOLA            54  30  38  24 /  10  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    56  30  41  24 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ033-047>052-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ050-051-067>069-082-083-091>094-098.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$



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