Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 302010
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
310 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Forecast highlights: Fairly quiet weather through Monday, with
shower/thunderstorm chances increasing Monday night- Wednesday
night. Quiet weather again by late week and next weekend.

Could see fog development later tonight into early Saturday
morning over portions of east-central and southeast Kansas, due to
light winds and clear skies atop surface ridge axis. RAP soundings
indicate potential for dense fog amidst a moistening boundary
layer, so evening shift will need to monitor.

Cannot rule out a few showers/thunderstorms west of I-135 Saturday
night into Sunday morning given increasing 850-700 warm advection
and moisture transport. Forcing and elevated instability are weak,
so not expecting widespread activity.

Otherwise, daytime temperatures will steadily warm through Monday
as southerly flow and atmospheric thickness gradually increase
ahead of a deepening western CONUS trough. Readings by Monday
should reach the 80s most areas, with stout/gusty south winds as
lee trough strengthens over the High Plains. Expecting
shower/thunderstorm chances to increase generally west of I-135
Monday night, as large scale ascent from deep western CONUS trough
and associated cold front approach from the west.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Per medium range model consensus, shower/thunderstorm chances
continue areawide Tuesday- Wednesday night, as the western CONUS
longwave trough and associated cold front moves across Mid-
America. Quite a bit of model spread regarding the evolution,
magnitude, timing and placement of various synoptic features, so
confidence on forecast specifics remains low. Despite moderate to
strong forcing and decent deep layer shear, thinking overall
threat for severe weather is on the low side throughout this event
given limited moisture return and associated poor instability.

Cooler and pleasant weather will return by late week in wake of
the cold front, with upper ridging building from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

VFR Weather is expected to persist during the TAF forecast valid
period. Light/variable winds are forecast with a surface ridge
continuing to stretch from Minnesota/Iowa to Eastern Kansas. Some
High-level cloudiness will continue to spread over central Kansas
from the west through Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    51  76  56  79 /   0   0  10  10
Hutchinson      50  76  54  78 /   0   0  10  10
Newton          50  74  54  77 /   0   0  10  10
ElDorado        51  75  54  78 /   0   0  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   51  77  55  80 /   0   0  10  10
Russell         49  76  53  79 /   0  10  20  20
Great Bend      50  77  53  79 /   0  10  20  20
Salina          49  76  54  79 /   0   0  10  10
McPherson       50  75  54  78 /   0   0  10  10
Coffeyville     50  77  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         50  75  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            50  74  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    50  76  51  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...JMC


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