Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 010516
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1116 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 817 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Surface cold front at 02z stretched from just north of Yates
Center to near Wellington to near Anthony. While there remains a
slight chance for surface based convection ahead of the front
across southeast Kansas, it appears more probable that somewhat
more elevated storms will develop after 03z along and just north
of the front from east central Kansas into the Flint Hills and
then develop/move into southeast Kansas through midnight or so.
Cloud bearing shear is still strong with moderate cape of 800 to
1300 J/KG, so a few strong to marginally severe storms are
possible through about midnight across the southern Flint Hills
and southeast Kansas. Otherwise, colder and blustery north winds
and scattered light rain showers will continue to affect central
Kansas until around midnight, with a gradual clearing trend across
the entire area later tonight.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 126 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Dynamic weather setup expected this evening across the Plains.
Cold front currently stretches from northeast KS into the west
central portions of the state. Meanwhile, unseasonably rich low
level moisture is streaming north across the southern Plains with
upper 60 dewpoints over southeast OK into AR. Low level moisture
has worked back to the west a bit further than models were
hinting at yesterday putting southeast KS more at risk for severe
storms.

There is a chance a storm or two may develop over se KS late this
afternoon. With the front well to the NW, storms would have to
develop on increasing moisture transport and large scale lift.
Shear profiles are extremely impressive with around 70 kts of
0-6km shear and over 100kts of 0-8km. In addition, low level SRH
fields are very conducive for rotating storms. So while
confidence in storm development is low, due to lack of low level
forcing, confidence is high that if a storm can get going it will
be a supercell with large hail and tornado potential.

There will be an additional threat for storms around or after 03z
as the front pushes through SE KS. While these storms would
develop into a line, large hail would still be possible given
large values of deep layer shear.

Cold front will be well south of forecast area by 12z Wed with
main story turning to drying low levels and fire weather concerns
for Wed afternoon. See fire wx section for additional details.
Behind this front we will still be looking at temps slightly above
normal with highs topping out in the mid to upper 50s. There is
good model agreement in a fast moving piece of energy diving out
of the northern Rockies and across the northern Plains Thu. This
will reinforce nw flow aloft over the region with temps continuing
to slowly warm.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 126 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Upper flow will become more zonal for the end of the work week
into the weekend which will allow temps to continue to warm with
70s possible by Sat. Also pretty good signal for strong surface
winds Sat afternoon as lee troughing strengthens. This would
elevate the grassland fire danger Sat. Upper flow will become more
sw starting Sun as a shortwave comes on shore and tracks over the
Great Basin. This wave looks to be taking a northern track which
would limit our precip chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1112 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

A strong cold front will continue to move eastward and will clear
southeast Kansas a little after midnight. Meanwhile gusty
northwest winds behind the front will decrease a bit before
daybreak, however they will increase again by late morning through
the afternoon hours across the entire area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 126 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Fire weather concerns will be elevated Wed afternoon and again
Fri and especially Sat.

Winds are expected to flip around to the nw for Wed with gusts
around 30-35mph possible over central KS. RH values will be around
20-25% from the Flint Hills through all of central KS. Very high
grassland fire danger will be likely Wed afternoon with extreme
values not out of the question for locations along and west of
I-135. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged Wed afternoon and
early evening.

Winds will flip back around to the south and sw for Fri into Sat
and will increase in speed. By Sat winds will likely be sustained
in the 20-25 mph range with gusts approaching 40 mph. Very high
fire danger is likely both Fri and Sat with extreme values not
out of the question for Sat afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    35  56  28  59 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      33  55  27  58 /  20   0   0   0
Newton          35  55  27  57 /  20   0   0   0
ElDorado        35  55  28  58 /  20   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   37  57  28  60 /  20   0   0   0
Russell         28  53  24  55 /  30   0   0   0
Great Bend      29  53  24  56 /  30   0   0   0
Salina          32  54  26  57 /  40   0   0   0
McPherson       32  54  26  57 /  30   0   0   0
Coffeyville     40  58  29  61 /  80   0   0   0
Chanute         39  57  27  60 /  80   0   0   0
Iola            38  57  28  59 /  80   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    40  57  28  61 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KED
SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...RBL


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