Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 260852
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
252 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
EARLY THIS MORNING. A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER CENTERED AROUND H75 HAS
RESULTED IN ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES REACHING THE GROUND WHILE
T/TD SPREADS REMAINED FAIRLY LARGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LARGE-
SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE MAY SEE A FEW MORNING
SPRINKLES...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WITHIN A DEEPLY MIXED/SUBSIDENT REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER-
LIKE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS WITH SEASONABLY COOL HIGHS IN THE 40S/AROUND 50.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL NOSE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TONIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID 20S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE.

THANKSGIVING DAY-SATURDAY...RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS AND
A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN RISING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS AROUND 50 ARE EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY
WHILE SOME LOCATIONS REACH THE MID 60S ON FRI AND SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S/40S ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND THE LOW
TO MID 60S NEAR THE OK STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY MODIFY BY TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. 500-300
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
IN THE 06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...ALLOWING MID-LEVEL
MOISTENING/SATURATION WITH FAIRLY DRY LOW-LEVELS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. NOT EXPECTING VSBY/CIGS TO
DROP BELOW VFR IF ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAKES IT TO THE GROUND
BEFORE EVAPORATING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST
NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF AROUND 30-35 KNOTS ARE PROGGED DURING
WEDNESDAY FROM AROUND 15Z INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MIXING WILL BE THE STRONGEST.

JMC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  24  48  34 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      47  22  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          43  23  46  33 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        47  25  49  35 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  24  48  35 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         43  20  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      45  22  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          45  22  48  32 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       44  22  47  32 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     50  25  48  34 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         47  23  46  31 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            45  23  45  30 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    49  22  47  31 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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