Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 201945
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
245 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

The surface front has slowed down and pretty much stalled out near
the Kansas turnpike. Limited low-level convergence combined with
stout cap aloft should prevent convection from developing even with
high instability for locations along and east of the front for this
afternoon/evening. Would expect storms to fire further northeast in
Iowa for this afternoon then gradually zipper back to the southwest
along the front for tonight, as moisture transport increases towards
the edge of the cap aloft. We could see a few storms try and develop
over eastern Kansas late tonight but even those chances will be on
the lower end.

The surface front will migrate back northward as a warmfront on
Thursday with hot and windy conditions expected for Kansas. Above
normal temperatures and gusty south winds will continue for the
central plains on Friday and Saturday, as a upper trough digs in
over the western states.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Long range models continue to show a slow eastward progression of
the deep upper trough axis for Sunday into next week with rich gulf
moisture streaming north ahead of this system. This setup by the
models favors a prolonged period of widespread showers/storms
beginning on Saturday across the high plains, then gradually
spreading eastward into central Kansas by Sunday night. The rain
chances would be quite favorable with this pattern across
central/eastern Kansas on Monday and Tuesday. Especially given the
slow movement of this deep trough combined with healthy dynamics
from the upper jet, and higher than normal moisture content in the
atmosphere across the region. This could generate some heavy
rainfall for parts of the Heartland if model signals remain on track
with the latest solution.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

MVFR conditions at KCNU may linger at KCNU into first hour or so
of the forecast. Deck of cumulus there will gradually rise with
heating. Otherwise, moisture ahead of cold front will result in
extensive cumulus this afternoon/evening at near/east of KICT and
at KCNU. Anticipate this area will gradually spread back north
later tonight/Thursday morning. Some elevated showers and
thunderstorms are possible tonight through tomorrow morning, but
confidence in occurrence and timing at any given site are too low
to mention at this time. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    74  94  72  91 /  10  10  10   0
Hutchinson      69  95  72  91 /  10  10  10  10
Newton          72  94  71  90 /  10  10  10   0
ElDorado        75  93  72  89 /  10  10  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   75  93  72  90 /  10  10  10   0
Russell         59  97  73  92 /   0  10  10   0
Great Bend      60  97  72  91 /   0  10  10   0
Salina          69  97  75  93 /  10  10  10  10
McPherson       68  95  72  91 /  10  10  10   0
Coffeyville     74  90  72  90 /  10  10  10  10
Chanute         74  90  71  89 /  20  10  10  10
Iola            73  90  70  88 /  20  10  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    74  90  72  89 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...PJH


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