Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 140558
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1158 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Main storm system over wrn TX continues to make progress into the
srn plains. Moisture transport and warm advection ahead of this
system has led to widespread showers across most of OK and along the
bottom row of counties near the KS/OK border.  Further north, widely
scattered light rain or sprinkles continues across portions of
south Central KS and Central KS, mainly south of highway 54/400.

Expect this light rain chance to continue for the late evening hours
along the KS/OK border, with areas north of this main shower area
leading to mainly sprinkles. Feel areas north of highway 54/400 will
see diminishing sprinkle/light rain chances as lift associated with
the main system stays across the srn plains...with isentropic
downglide across northern KS helping push precip chances further S
and E late tonight.

Latest bufkit soundings do suggest temps cold enough aloft for ice
crystal (snow) formation, but most of this will melt before it
reaches the ground, as min temps stay above freezing where the main
precip area is located. As temps do fall into the middle 30s late
tonight, could see a few snow flakes or partially melted snow (ice
pellets) possibly reach the ground. But any frozen type precip that
actually reaches the ground will be minimal.

Ketcham

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Water vapor imagery shows upper low approaching sw TX with mid
level warm advection and increasing upper diffluence ahead of
this wave resulting in showers moving into central/south central
KS. Should see on and off showers this evening across most of the
forecast area with south central and southeast KS seeing the most
widespread precip. Confidence is high that the majority of the
precip will fall as light rain with a small opportunity for a few
flakes mixing in overnight as we try and wet bulb the dry layer
just off the of surface. No snowfall accumulation is expected.

By 12z Tue, the slow moving impulse will be tracking over west-
central TX but the better mid level theta-e advection will be
shunted south and east of KS, leaving dry conditions in place.
Additional shortwave energy will dive out of Manitoba and across
the Great Lakes late Tonight through Tue which will push another
weak cold front through KS. Even with northerly surface flow in
place, highs will still be above normal for both Tue and Wed as
they top out in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Sharp upper ridging will develop over the Rockies and into the
Plains by Thu with another southern stream impulse over northern
Mexico. This pattern will bring another round of very warm temps
across the area for Thu and Fri with 70s possible for areas along
and west of I-135. The southern stream wave will lift northeast
across the southern Plains Fri into Sat and may bring rain chances
for southeast KS into the Ozark region Fri night into Sat. There
is some agreement between the ECMWF and GFS in tracking a sharp
upper trough across the Rockies and out into the Plains Sun night
through Monday night which will bring another chance of rain for
much of our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1158 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

A progressive area of light rain showers or sprinkles will continue
to move to the east during the overnight hours. So will go with
either some light rain (-ra) or VCSH for most of the taf sites for
two or three more hours. Even with the light rain, will see VFR
conditions for cigs and vsbys.

The only other concern will be increasing north winds after this
system moves to the east of the area for Tue. Could even see some
wind gusts to 25 kts for the afternoon hours on Tue.

Ketcham

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 318 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Fire weather concerns do not look that elevated in the next few
days.

North winds will be a bit gusty on Tue afternoon with sustained
speeds in the 15 to 20 mph range with slightly higher gusts.
However, RH`s in the 30-40% range will keep the grassland fire
danger in check. Light north/nw winds Wed and sw winds Thu will be
the main factor keeping the fire danger below the very high
category even though RH values will be around 30% west of I-135.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    35  54  29  53 /  60  10   0   0
Hutchinson      32  54  28  53 /  50   0   0   0
Newton          34  53  28  52 /  50   0   0   0
ElDorado        35  54  29  52 /  60  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   36  53  30  53 /  90  20   0   0
Russell         29  55  26  55 /  20   0   0   0
Great Bend      30  54  26  55 /  30   0   0   0
Salina          31  55  27  53 /  50   0   0   0
McPherson       32  53  27  52 /  60   0   0   0
Coffeyville     37  54  31  51 /  90  20   0   0
Chanute         37  55  29  50 /  80  10   0   0
Iola            37  54  29  50 /  60  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    37  54  30  51 /  90  20   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Ketcham
SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...BDK
FIRE WEATHER...RBL



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