Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 132028
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
228 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 143 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

The challenge continues this afternoon. GFS/ECMWF/NAM/WRF are all
showing different solutions to this up coming ice storm. GFS is by
far the warmest, to the point where it is difficult to take is
seriously. ECMWF/NAM/WRF seem to be closer together. A strong low
pressure systems churns in the desert Southwest providing a
plethora of moisture transport from the South. This will create
warm mid level temperatures over the colder surface temperatures.
This will create a long term freezing rain event over much of the
CWA. Onset is expected to be slow. Southeast Kansas has already
started to see some freezing rain. The Northward progression is
not expected to reach the Central areas of Kansas until after
midnight tonight. By mid morning Saturday, nearly all areas of the
CWA should have freezing rain. This freezing rain is expected to
continue through much of Saturday and Saturday night. Most areas
should see about 1/8 to 1/4 of ice accretion through Saturday.
Saturday night, the moisture transport from the South picks up and
will allow for much warmer temperatures to advect into the area.
Unfortunately, this will only allow the precipitation to become
heavier overnight as Northeast winds will continue keeping the
surface temperatures down below freezing. This means the freezing
rain will likely become heavier. An additional 1/4 of ice
accretion will be likely over much of CWA. Expect about 1/4 to 1/2
of an inch of ice accretion for this ice storm.

While confidence is high on the freezing rain for Saturday and
Saturday night, confidence drops some for Sunday. The strong high
pressure to the Northeast will start to move further to East which
will significantly weaken its influence and the low level CAA will
come to an end. This means the WAA that has been occurring aloft
will slowly start to work its way down to the surface and the
precip will transition from freezing rain to rain will take
place. This will be slow to start but will pick up speed in the
afternoon as the main low pressure system starts encroach on the
area. The rain will remain in the area and could be heavy at times
in localized areas Sunday night and Monday. This rain will
diminish as the low pressure moves through Kansas during the
afternoon Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 143 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Forecast for the long term is much easier as high pressure will be
building into the region. Unlike the past major systems that have
come through the area, this one will not have a lot of CAA behind
and temperatures are likely to rise above normal for much of the
period with Southwesterly winds. The next system that appears to
arrive next Friday but it is too early to tell exactly how this
will develop. At this time is looks as temperatures will be plenty
warm enough to allow for rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Main aviation issue will be increasing freezing rain chances
through the next 24 hours.

Deep upper low remains off of the southern CA coast with low-mid
level warm advection starting across the southern Plains. This has
resulted in increasing precip across the Ozarks into far southeast
KS and into central OK. These are the areas that have been
affected by freezing rain so far. Confidence remains high that any
precip across eastern and central KS through the next 24 hours
will fall as liquid, freezing on any sub freezing surfaces. KCNU
should start to see some patches of -FZRA this afternoon with
chances increasing tonight into Sat morning. KICT will not see any
-FZRA until later tonight, likely after 06z with KHUT not getting
in on the action until later Sat morning.

Surface temps will obviously play a major role on how much ice
accumulates. Right how we have a lean to the temps from the NAM
and RAP, discounting the much warmer GFS. So as the bulk of the
rain falls we should see temps in the 30-33 degree range.

As far as ceilings go, widespread MVFR will be likely at KICT-KCNU
with these conditions slowly spreading north tonight into Sat
morning. The only site that should see IFR ceilings through this
TAF period are KCNU and possibly KICT toward the end of this
taf period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    25  33  30  41 /  40  70  80  70
Hutchinson      23  31  27  38 /  30  60  80  80
Newton          23  32  27  39 /  40  60  80  80
ElDorado        24  33  29  42 /  40  60  80  70
Winfield-KWLD   26  34  31  46 /  60  70  80  60
Russell         20  32  25  33 /  10  40  60  70
Great Bend      21  31  26  34 /  20  50  70  80
Salina          21  31  26  36 /  20  40  70  80
McPherson       22  31  27  37 /  30  50  80  80
Coffeyville     29  35  33  51 /  70  70  80  50
Chanute         27  34  31  45 /  60  70  80  70
Iola            26  33  30  42 /  60  70  80  70
Parsons-KPPF    29  34  33  49 /  70  70  80  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Ice Storm Warning until 3 AM CST Sunday for KSZ096-098>100.

Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday for
KSZ051>053-067>069-082-083-091-092.

Ice Storm Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Monday for
KSZ032-033-047-048.

Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for
KSZ049-050.

Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for KSZ070>072-093>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...RBL



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