Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 311736
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THROUGH MID AFTERNOON:
ELEVATED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED ON SCHEDULE AND STILL EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FLINT
HILLS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EITHER MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS
MOST LIKELY AROUND 0000 UTC. CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES IN
CONVECTIVE INDICES...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN DYNAMICS. AS FOR EVOLUTION...LATEST
ARW-NNM HAD FAIRLY DECENT DEPICTION OF ANTICIPATED AREA/TIMING.
COMBO OF STOUT CAP AND LESS CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IN ABSENCE OF LARGER THAN
ANTICIPATED COLD POOL. THE TRACK OF MCS IS GENERALLY EAST
SOUTHEAST...EXPANDING SPATIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
KS.

MON-TUE:
MCS PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER A BIT ON MON...BUT NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST
OR EAST NORTHEAST/WEST SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON BOUNDARY. SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ROUGHLY OVER FLINT HILLS...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUDS/INSTABILITY. GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SUBSTANTIAL
NOCTURNAL RAINFALL GIVEN ORIENTATION OF BOUNDARY/FLOW ALOFT AND
LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING STORMS MON NIGHT. ON TUE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
COME TUE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FRONT/RICHER MOISTURE
LIFTS BACK NORTH. MAXES WILL REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND/OR EXTENSIVE CLOUDS TO SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESS MAXES.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON WED-THU WITH
PRECIPITATION EXITING WED AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED.
BOTH TEMPERATURES/WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WED AND PERSIST ON THU.
HOWEVER ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE MARKEDLY BY LATE THU AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. ECMWF DEPICTS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE RACING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH FORCES FRONT AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA MUCH FASTER THAN GFS. BY FRI NIGHT
GFS HAS PUSHED FRONT INTO NORTHERN KS...WHILE ECMWF HAS IT WELL
INTO OK/AR. AS A RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THIS PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THUNDER CHANCES AT KRSL AND KSLN DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

INITIALLY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL SIGHTS TO THE WEST
OF THE FLINT HILLS OR A COTTONWOOD FALLS TO SEDAN LINE. SOUTH
WINDS OF NEAR 30 MPH ARE FORECAST AND SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 40 WILL
PREVAIL.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BEGIN TO SWING TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

IN THE MEAN TIME...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND MOVE EAST. INITIALLY IT LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED CELLS MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE AND PRODUCE HAIL TO
GOLF BALL SIZE AND HIGH WINDS UP TO 65 MPH. HOWEVER...AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES THE STORMS WILL TRANSITION INTO A LINEAR FORM AND RACE
EAST POTENTIALLY PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 75 MPH. THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY AFFECT KRSL AND KSLN. KHUT WILL BE ON THE FRINGE AT
THIS TIME.

MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE COVERED WITH FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    96  75  91  68 /  20  30  30  50
HUTCHINSON      96  71  88  68 /  10  40  20  40
NEWTON          95  72  89  67 /  10  40  30  40
ELDORADO        95  74  92  67 /  10  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   96  76  94  69 /  10  20  40  50
RUSSELL         97  66  83  64 /  20  70  10  20
GREAT BEND      97  67  85  65 /  20  50  10  30
SALINA          97  70  84  65 /  20  70  20  20
MCPHERSON       96  70  87  67 /  20  70  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  76  92  71 /  10  30  40  50
CHANUTE         95  74  92  69 /  10  40  40  50
IOLA            94  74  91  69 /  10  40  40  50
PARSONS-KPPF    96  75  92  70 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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