Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 042344
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
544 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 237 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Tonight-Mon evening: Cloud cover will continue to diminish
across the forecast area for the early evening hours as some drier
air pushes across the area. Widespread rains from Sat will lead to
lots of wet ground cover tonight, as weak southerly return flow
begins to spread north back across the area late tonight or early
Mon morning. This weak return flow and fairly light southerly
winds and clear skies may lead to some areas of fog for the early
morning hours on Mon, especially for areas east of the KS
Turnpike. There is some potential for some dense fog in extreme SE
KS but will let the evening shift look at this further.

The southerly flow will lead a temps climbing back a little above
normal for Mon. Coolest temps, albeit still above normal, will be
across southeast KS as a compact southern stream system moves across
the southern plains into AR. Cloud cover and moisture from this
system may clip a small part of Southeast KS with a light rain
chance for Mon afternoon/evening.

Monday night-Tuesday: As this compact system passes to the SE of the
area, colder air will begin to push south across the forecast area
for Mon night as a northern stream system helps push a strong cold
front south.  This will lead to temps falling below freezing for Mon
night with below normal temps in the middle 30s (Central Ks) to the
lower 40s in southern KS on Tue.

Tuesday night-Wed night: The shallow cold air will remain across
the area for Tue night into Wed. Models have come around to the
ECMWF solution with snow developing late Tue night and towards
daybreak Wednesday as a fast moving shortwave interacts with the
shallow cold air and baroclinic zone expected to be located
initially across Central KS. Models are fairly consistent in
showing moisture increasing in the main dendritic snow growth zone
in Central KS early Wed morning with this area of lift and snow
growth slowly making progress to the E-SE as the daytime Wed
progresses. Residence time for the mid level moisture in the snow
growth region suggests 3-6 hours of light snow, with an hour or
two of fairly efficient snow production (1 inch/hour amounts) as
the forecast soundings become isothermal. This would support a
fairly healthy swath of 2 to 4 inches across Central KS(along
I-70) for the Wed morning hours, and another secondary band of 1
to 3 inches between highway 50 and highway 54 (including the
Wichita metro) for Wed afternoon as the snow growth region
transitions southeast. This being the first snow of the season,
would not be surprised to see some sort of winter weather advisory
issued with later forecast packages, as the event approaches. With
fresh snow cover expected by Wed night, Could see some of the
coldest temps of the season by Thu morning.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

The below freezing temperatures will linger through Thursday before
the warmup commences on Friday and Saturday.

The next quick hitting system will move across the plains for late
Sat night into early Sun, which may bring another chance of
very light snow for at least Central KS.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 535 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Clear and tranquil weather conditions expected for tonight however
there could be some patchy fog across southeast Kansas around
daybreak. VFR conditions expected across central/south central
Kansas with increasing south winds for the afternoon hours on
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    31  53  30  40 /   0   0  10   0
Hutchinson      31  53  27  38 /   0   0  10   0
Newton          32  52  27  38 /   0   0  10   0
ElDorado        32  52  29  39 /   0  10  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   32  53  31  42 /   0  10  10   0
Russell         30  53  23  35 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      30  53  24  37 /   0   0  10   0
Salina          31  54  25  38 /   0   0  10   0
McPherson       30  52  26  38 /   0   0  10   0
Coffeyville     31  53  34  43 /   0  20  20   0
Chanute         31  53  31  41 /   0  10  10   0
Iola            31  52  30  41 /   0  10  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    32  52  33  43 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDK
LONG TERM...BDK
AVIATION...CDJ



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