Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 231141
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
541 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 344 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

High clouds streaming over top of the low clouds was limiting
stratus build down effects for dense fog formation over parts of
central/south central Kansas, therefore expect widespread fog to
remain mostly over western Kansas. Low clouds should be stingy
across the area today with light winds and maintenance of moist
airmass. Meanwhile current water vapor imagery shows a upper level
wave over southwest Texas which will move northeast today. Showers
and thunderstorms will spread northward from eastern Oklahoma into
southeast Kansas for this afternoon and evening. Strong isentropic
lift is expected to develop in the low levels for tonight, and with
moist low level airmass remaining in place this should result in
widespread drizzle. Surface temperatures could drop below freezing
near the I-70 corridor for tonight and Saturday morning which would
result in freezing drizzle, therefore we will hoist a winter weather
advisory for a few counties in central Kansas.

The upper trough that has been camping out over the southwestern
states for several days will finally dislodge itself and move
eastward across the central plains on Saturday. Another round of
rain could affect far southeast Kansas on Saturday but central/south
central Kansas will be dry as things shift east and drier air
overspreads the central plains.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 344 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Monday will be dry with weak surface high pressure over the region.
Otherwise models showing next upper level wave moving into the
region for the middle of next week. A decent fetch of moisture looks
to stream northward giving way to possible rain and even some
thunderstorm chances for Wednesday. Cooler air will then spread back
southward across the region in the wake of the Wednesday system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 541 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

IFR to LIFR conditions should gradually improve some by mid-late
morning for most areas, becoming IFR to low MVFR. Expecting
chances for showers/thunderstorms to increase from the southwest
across far southeast Kansas later this afternoon, so included VCSH
at CNU. Widespread drizzle and LIFR conditions are expected once
again areawide tonight, with temperatures just cold enough for
light freezing drizzle at RSL, GBD and maybe SLN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 344 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Fire weather concerns will remain low across the entire region for
the next 3 days with moist airmass maintaining through Saturday and
light winds on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    40  34  49  22 /  10  20  50  10
Hutchinson      39  32  47  21 /  10  30  50  10
Newton          40  33  46  22 /  10  30  50  10
ElDorado        42  34  47  24 /  20  40  50  10
Winfield-KWLD   44  37  51  23 /  20  40  50  10
Russell         37  29  41  18 /  10  30  50   0
Great Bend      36  30  44  19 /  10  20  50   0
Salina          39  30  43  19 /  10  40  50  10
McPherson       39  32  45  19 /  10  30  50  10
Coffeyville     48  41  58  26 /  50  90  60  10
Chanute         46  37  53  25 /  30  80  50  10
Iola            46  36  52  25 /  30  70  50  10
Parsons-KPPF    47  40  55  26 /  40  80  60  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon CST
Saturday for KSZ032-033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ


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