Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 211804
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1204 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 327 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Forecast highlights focus around winter storm to impact Mid-
America this afternoon through Monday.

Strong low-level warm/moist advection impinging on an east-west
oriented warm front will support areas of dense fog this morning
for locations generally along/north of the I-70 corridor. A dense
fog advisory remains in effect for Lincoln-Russell counties
through noon today.

Otherwise, despite strong and deep lift overspreading the region
today ahead of a stout shortwave trough, an unfavorable storm
track in concert with the deepest moisture remaining east of the
forecast area will leave much of central, south-central and
southeast Kansas dry today, with the exception of patchy light
drizzle. A few showers could perhaps develop later this afternoon
and evening across central and eastern KS just ahead of the
strongest lift approaching from the west, but not expecting
widespread wetting rains.

As the system begins to move northeast across the area tonight
and Monday, the associated deformation zone precipitation region
will move east as well, grazing the northern half of the forecast
area tonight through Monday morning, generally along/north of
Great Bend to McPherson to Cottonwood Falls. Precipitation will
initially start as light rain, although a gradual changeover to
light snow is expected as colder air advects southeast on
strong/gusty northwest winds. Lift within the snow growth zone
will not be overly impressive, although prolonged light snow
within the deformation zone may support around 1" accumulation
generally along/north of Great Bend to Salina...with isolated 2"
amounts across northern portions of Russell and Lincoln counties.
Much higher snow amounts will occur across northwest Kansas into
Nebraska. Given the expected very strong/gusty north winds
combined with the light snow during Monday morning commute, will
issue a winter weather advisory for Russell-Lincoln counties from
10pm this evening through 3pm Monday. Day shift today may need to
consider expanding another row of counties south to include Great
Bend, Ellsworth and Salina.

Otherwise, very strong/gusty northwest winds are expected late
tonight-Monday. Rather impressive mixing values per model
soundings could support localized gusts of 45-50 mph. Fully expect
day shift today will need to issue a wind advisory for late
tonight through Monday areawide.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 327 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Quiet weather is expected Tuesday-Thursday, as a deepening
western CONUS trough increases atmospheric thickness across Mid-
America, supporting a warming trend. Strengthening lee troughing
will also support strong/gusty south winds Thu-Fri. For Friday and
Saturday, operational model runs and associated ensemble members
all progress another storm system across Mid-America, supporting
increased precipitation chances across the area Friday-Saturday.
Overall lift and moisture availability with this system will be
less than the current storm system, so probably looking at
precipitation amounts no greater than one-tenth to one-quarter of
an inch across the forecast area. The only potential for light
wintry precipitation will be Friday night/early Saturday as colder
air advects south, but not expecting a big winter event by any
means.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1157 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

A stalled frontal boundary was bisecting central KS today with
widespread LIFR cigs and visibilities through the early afternoon
hours along and west of the boundary. Clouds on the western
periphery of the boundary were showing some signs of mixing out
while the westward progression remains uncertain. As a potent
mid/upper trough over the Rockies emerges over the Central Plains
tonight, widespread precipitation will develop across much of
western and northern Kansas impacting our central KS TAFs. The
snow may begin to impact the KRSL-KGBD areas by around midnight
while showing up in the KSLN area towards sunrise. We may see a
brief wintry mix before precipitation changes to all snow. This
will likely result in widespread reduced flight categories with
strong northwest winds expected to develop in the wake of the
system on Monday. We should see improving conditions as we move
through the day on Monday although strong northwest winds of 30 to
35 knots with gusts over 45 knots will be common.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 327 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Despite stout/gusty south winds, grassland fire danger today will
only be marginally very high given higher humidities. Fire danger
will increase for Monday though, due to very strong/gusty
northwest winds. Not expecting red flag/critical conditions
though, but definitely solid very high grassland fire danger
areawide. Very high grassland fire danger is also expected
Thursday and Friday, as strong/gusty south winds ramp up along
with warmer temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    63  34  43  25 /  20  20  30   0
Hutchinson      54  32  42  23 /  20  30  40   0
Newton          62  33  40  23 /  20  30  50   0
ElDorado        64  34  41  24 /  20  20  40   0
Winfield-KWLD   65  36  44  25 /  20  20  20   0
Russell         43  30  40  21 /  40  70  70   0
Great Bend      44  30  42  21 /  30  70  50   0
Salina          52  31  39  23 /  30  60  80   0
McPherson       55  31  40  22 /  20  40  60   0
Coffeyville     69  37  45  27 /  30  30  20   0
Chanute         66  36  42  26 /  30  30  30  10
Iola            65  36  41  26 /  30  30  30  10
Parsons-KPPF    68  37  43  26 /  30  30  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 PM CST
Monday for KSZ032-033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...ADK



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