Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 011137
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
637 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE IN ITS ORIENTATION THRU THE
MID-WEEK PERIODS. A WEAK MESOSCALE ENHANCED SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL
MIGRATE NORTHEAST TODAY AND FRINGE NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OF KANSAS
TO ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOCUSED JUST EAST OF THE LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROF OVER WESTERN KANSAS...WHICH COULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL
IN THE GOING FORECAST. DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL PREVAIL EACH AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE LEE TROF FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE TURNPIKE THROUGH THURSDAY. LITTLE
CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS...SO WILL
TAKE A PERSISTENCE APPROACH TO MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES. WHILE
CHANCES FOR EVENING/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
NON-ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT
STRONGER/FURTHER SOUTH WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
FAR NORTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHERN IDAHO. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL VENTURE
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. HOWEVER IT IS DEBATABLE
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS KANSAS AS SOME
SEMBLANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE COULD HOLD SWAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. FOR NOW WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST
WITH SLIGHT TO MODEST PRECIP/CONVECTIVE CHANCES THAT MAY DEVELOP
GRADUALLY SOUTH FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL KS...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED/HIGH BASED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...BUT
PROBABILITY/TIMING IS LESS THAN CERTAIN. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  70  94  70 /   0  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      94  71  94  70 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  70  93  70 /   0  10  10   0
ELDORADO        92  69  92  70 /   0   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  70  94  70 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELL         96  71  96  71 /  20  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      96  70  96  71 /  10  20  10  10
SALINA          95  71  95  71 /  10  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       95  70  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  69  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    91  69  91  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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