Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 011201
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
701 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO THE PACNW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST AND WILL IMPACT
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. WITH LINGERING CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES MAY
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE OBSERVED HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
REMAINING IN THE LOW-MID 70S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TUE-
WED AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID/UPPER RIDGING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

THIS PATTERN OF WEAK NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
PROGGED TO RETURN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INCREASING ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER AND INCREASING CINH LIKELY PRECLUDING MORE WIDESPREAD STORM
ACTIVITY. MAINTAINED LOW POPS WEIGHTED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS MAINLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WED-THU WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY AFFECTING CENTRAL KANSAS TAF
SITES...EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST.
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS ACTIVATED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ALONG AXIS OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ALONG 300-310K SURFACES...HOWEVER AS SHORTWAVE FEATURE
MOVES SOUTH...SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL COUNTER ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. EXPECT THREAT THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN 14-15
UTC.  ONLY OTHER POSSIBLE AVIATION FOCUS IN VERY SHORT TERM
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF LOW MVFR AND HIGH END IFR CIGS AS
EARLY MORNING DIURNAL MIXING IS ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE FLOW. FOR
NOW...DECIDED TO KEEP CONDITIONS SCATTERED.

BY AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. NEXT POTENTIAL
AVIATION IMPACT WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW
LEVEL GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AND INCREASES LOW LEVEL MOIST FLOW.
SHORT TERM MODELS AND SREF ALL INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
END VFR CIGS AROUND 3-4K FEET ADVECTING INTO KRSL AND KHUT AFT 06
UTC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  60  81  66 /  20  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      75  60  83  66 /  30  10  10  10
NEWTON          72  57  79  64 /  20  10  10  10
ELDORADO        74  59  79  66 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   75  59  81  65 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         77  60  83  65 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      77  60  85  65 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          75  60  81  66 /  30  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       75  58  82  65 /  20  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     75  56  80  63 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         74  55  79  64 /   0  10  10  10
IOLA            73  55  78  64 /   0  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    75  56  77  64 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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