Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
000
FXUS63 KICT 170759
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
259 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

The main challenge today will be the extent of cloud cover, shower
and thunderstorm activity. The cold front which passed through the
region last night will stall along the Oklahoma state line. This
will keep the clouds in the region and with gentle but consistent
moisture transport into the frontal zone and the available lift
the front will provide will keep the chances for showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast today and tonight. Shear and
instability is good and CIN appears low enough to allow for some
strong thunderstorms with an isolated severe storm possible along
the Oklahoma State line. The best chance for strong to severe
thunderstorms will be along and south of US-54. All the clouds and
precipitation in the region will keep the temperatures well below
normal for today. Monday the stalled front will drift to the
north and back into Central Kansas. The front will keep the CIN
low and the lift and shear favorable for thunderstorm activity.
Instability looks to be good enough to allow for some isolated
severe thunderstorms as well during the afternoon and into the
overnight period.

Tuesday, the frontal boundary will continue to move to the north
and southerly flow will return to the region. CIN will become much
stronger and the lift and shear will diminish significantly. This
will allow the sun to return for much of Tuesday and Wednesday
allowing temperatures to return to the upper 80s and low 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

By Thursday the Gulf of Mexico will open up and moisture transport
into the region will resume ahead of the next system. Thursday
looks like a rather nice warm day with temperatures a little above
normal for this time of year. Friday afternoon and evening and
into the weekend look rather unsettled as the next cold front
begins to encroach on the region. It is at this point GFS and the
ECMWF begin to diverge. While both the GFS and ECMWF now agree
that the remnants of Hurricane Norma in the Eastern Pacific will
not be affect the region, the GFS is much more agressive with the
thunderstorm activity over the region. The ECMWF does have a
strong thunderstorm and heavy rain signal over the region for
Saturday but is much more progressive and moves the activity out
of the region rather quickly while the GFS tends to hold the
precipitation activity over the region. Both the GFS and the ECMWF
agree on strong moisture transport from an open Gulf of Mexico
which supports heavy rain over the region.  Either way, it looks
as if next weekend will be wet and cooler but confidence is low at
this time.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

A cold front stretching from south-central Kansas through
northeast Kansas, will continue moving slowly southward across the
remainder of south-central/southeast Kansas overnight into Sunday
morning. The front is expected to stall from northern Oklahoma to
central Missouri by Sunday afternoon.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible
along and behind the front overnight into Sunday. Coverage of
showers/thunderstorms may become more numerous/widespread Sunday
evening, as 850 mb moisture transport increases north of the
surface front, beneath broad upper-level diffluent flow.

MVFR ceilings are expected to develop/spread across much of
south-central/southeast Kansas overnight into Sunday morning.
Ceilings should improve to VFR by midday Sunday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    78  66  88  68 /  40  40  40  30
Hutchinson      74  64  88  66 /  40  50  40  30
Newton          75  65  86  67 /  40  50  50  30
ElDorado        75  66  86  68 /  40  50  50  30
Winfield-KWLD   80  66  88  69 /  40  50  30  30
Russell         73  62  86  65 /  30  60  30  20
Great Bend      73  62  88  64 /  30  50  30  30
Salina          75  64  85  68 /  30  60  50  20
McPherson       74  63  87  66 /  40  50  50  30
Coffeyville     82  67  87  69 /  40  40  30  20
Chanute         77  66  84  68 /  40  50  40  30
Iola            76  65  83  67 /  40  60  40  30
Parsons-KPPF    80  67  86  70 /  40  50  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...JMC



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.