Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 152340
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
640 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Low to mid level moisture continues to remain high with lots of
diurnally driven Cu across the area.  Satellite imagery shows a
convectively induced vort center, continuing to spin over ern Co.
The combination of the upslope flow easterly flow and lift
associated with the vort will lead to showers and thunderstorms
developing across wrn KS late this afternoon and this evening.
Already seeing development N-NW of DDC, and think this will continue
into the evening hours. Plan on leaving a low pop in for portions of
south central and central KS as propagation vectors suggest storms
in wrn KS will drift to the SE and S, possibly clipping south
central KS.

As the overnight hours continue, short range models suggest some of
the convection may develop a little closer to the forecast area, so
will keep some low pops going for areas west of I-135, as the vort
center begins to drift E-NE into NW KS.

Plan on keeping low pops for areas west of I-135 for Sun and Mon as
most model solutions suggests that the vort center will slowly drift
to the NE for Sun, possibly into north central KS.  So will leave
some low pops for portions of central KS for Sun thru Mon.

Upper ridge building across the plains will lead to a slow warming
trend for the beginning of the week with highs climbing into the
middle 90s.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Medium range models suggest the upper vort will finally lift to the
N-NE for late Mon, with the hot temps really building across the
plains, for the middle of the week.  Will certainly see max temps
climb into the upper 90s with some places in central KS reaching 100-
103.  May have to consider some heat headlines with future packages,
but will hold off for now, with heat index values expected to be in
the 100-105 range.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Isolated thunderstorms may affect KRSL/KICT/KHUT through sunset.
Based on little change in airmass, will included TEMPO group later
tonight for MVFR fog at KCNU. Otherwise light mainly east winds
will shift more to the south. More diurnal cumulus likely on
Sunday. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  93  71  94 /  10  10  10   0
Hutchinson      71  93  70  95 /  10  10  10   0
Newton          71  92  69  93 /  10  10   0   0
ElDorado        71  91  69  92 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   71  92  70  93 /  10  10   0   0
Russell         69  93  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
Great Bend      69  92  70  95 /  20  10  10  10
Salina          72  95  71  97 /  10   0   0  10
McPherson       69  93  69  94 /  10  10  10   0
Coffeyville     70  92  69  94 /  10   0   0   0
Chanute         69  91  69  93 /  10   0   0   0
Iola            68  91  68  93 /  10   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    70  92  69  93 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...PJH



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