Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 230902
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
302 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 259 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Last nights frontal boundary pushed a little further south than
previously thought, currently stalled just north of highway 50. Warm
advection ahead of the approaching shortwave in the wrn rockies,
will lead to this frontal boundary making slow progress back to the
north for the morning hours.  Mid level moisture overrunning this
boundary may lead to some sprinkles or virga  across portions of
Central KS as low layers remain fairly dry for the morning hours.

The Rockies shortwave will make rapid progress into the plains
states by this afternoon.  Some question on how far north the
frontal boundary will actually make it this afternoon, with a fairly
sharp temp gradient expected across Central KS. Areas south of the
front are expected to climb into the middle to upper 70s, while
areas along or north of the front may stay in the low 60s.  Still
another above normal temp day however you look at it.  As the
shortwave moves across,  a low pressure area is expected to move
along I-70, with the better lift and moisture associated with the
system located along or north of the front across srn Neb and nrn
KS. Will go with a showers and embedded thunder chance for late this
afternoon for areas along I-70, where the better lift/moisture is
expected to be located. Areas south of the low track across srn KS
will stay dry, as the warm advection will lead to a pronounced
elevated mixed layer, keeping any shower chances this far south
"capped" off.

As the shortwave pushes east on Fri, strong cold advection on the
backside of this system, is expected to help push a strong cold
front south across most of the forecast area.  This will lead to a
rather brisk/raw type day on Fri with some some fairly gusty winds.

This colder air will also lead to more seasonal type temp values in
the middle 40s for highs and middle 20s for lows for both Fri and
Sat.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Lots of uncertainty on how the end of the weekend will play out, as
the surface ridge moves rapidly to the east of the area late Sat,
with warm advection and increased moisture transport across the srn
plains. The uncertainty lies in how far north this moisture
transport will get on Sun, as another cold front drops south across
the forecast area.  Latest GFS shows a fairly strong shortwave will
move across the plains, for Sun afternoon/evening, with moisture
transport overrunning the front for a fairly decent chance of showers
and possibly even some thunderstorms for Sun evening across srn KS.
The ECMWF on the other hand is further south and shunts alot of the
moisture further east and south.  Consensus suggests keeping a
chance pop in, for most of srn KS for Sun afternoon/evening, but
feel these pops may be overdone given the drier ECMWF solution.

Progressive zonal flow will lead to a warming trend for the start of
next week.  Downslope flow conditions will lead to temps again
climbing above normal for Mon and Tue.

Another shortwave is progged to move into the Rockies toward the end
of the forecast period. This system may bring increasing chances for
precipitation and another surge of cooler air as we head towards the
middle of the week.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1159 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

At issuance, low pressure was strengthening over SE CO as expected.
The low will undergo further cyclogenesis as it drifts E acrs SW KS
thrut the day Thu. This would cause what is now an almost stnry fnt
draped alg the KS/OK bdr to undergo warm frontogenesis Thu Mrng w/
the bdnry lifting due N Thu Aftn. The incr`g lwr-deck moisture ad-
vection ocrg acrs SE KS is lkly to produce LIFR stratus to dvlp at
KCNU ~12Z w/ KCNU rmn`g stratified til ~16Z when onsetting & incrg
sly flow to ~13kt wl scour the stratus from the terminal. Smlr
trends in winds to ocr at KICT & KHUT. Winds acrs Nrn & Cntrl KS
to be ely & gradually incr to ~17kts sustained Thu Mrng. MVFR
stratocu ~2,000-2,500ft wl lkly dvlp acrs Cntrl KS late Thu Mrng.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

A cold frontal boundary will drop south across the
area on Fri, which will lead to drier air and NW winds across the
region. This will lead to a very high grassland danger for most
locations on Friday.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    75  38  45  24 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      73  35  42  23 /  20   0  10   0
Newton          70  36  42  23 /  10   0  10   0
ElDorado        74  38  44  24 /  10   0  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   79  40  47  25 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         63  30  36  19 /  20  30  20   0
Great Bend      67  31  39  19 /  20  20  10   0
Salina          64  35  39  22 /  30  30  20  10
McPherson       69  34  41  22 /  20  10  10   0
Coffeyville     79  44  52  27 /  10   0   0   0
Chanute         77  42  49  25 /  10   0   0   0
Iola            76  42  48  26 /  20   0  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    77  43  51  26 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
lONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...EPS
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham



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