000
FXUS63 KICT 141151
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
651 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP FOR KANSAS TODAY AS
RICHER GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. STEERING WINDS ALOFT WILL
MOVE THIS ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHEAST THUS KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF CENTRAL KANSAS. MEANWHILE...CURRENT SATELLITE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THIS WAVE WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO
KANSAS ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING GIVEN COOLER 700MB TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY WILL START OUT DRY FOR THE MOST
PART BUT THAT COULD CHANGE BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS SHOW A
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.
DECENT SIGNAL IN THE MODELS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE UPSLOPE MOISTURE REGIMEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THEN GROWING UPSCALE INTO A BIGGER FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS THAT WOULD FOLLOW THE 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER LOOK TO BE IN STORE FOR
KANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA PUSHING THE RICHER GULF MOISTURE SOUTHWARD. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR MID-WEEK WITH RETURNING GULF
MOISTURE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN ESPECIALLY FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY OF STORMS IN WESTERN KS/NEBRASKA TO MAKE IT
TO ANY OF THE SITES TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS MORNING
DUE TO INCREASED MIXING AND TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
-HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    98  73  87  71 /   0  10  40  30
HUTCHINSON      99  73  86  69 /   0  10  40  30
NEWTON          97  73  86  70 /  10  10  40  40
ELDORADO        96  72  87  70 /  10  10  30  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  74  87  72 /   0  10  40  40
RUSSELL        102  71  87  68 /   0  10  30  30
GREAT BEND     102  71  87  68 /   0  10  40  30
SALINA          98  72  86  69 /  10  10  30  40
MCPHERSON       99  73  86  69 /  10  10  40  30
COFFEYVILLE     93  74  87  72 /  10  10  30  50
CHANUTE         92  73  86  70 /  10  10  30  50
IOLA            92  72  86  70 /  10  10  30  50
PARSONS-KPPF    93  74  87  71 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$