Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 081110
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
610 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

EAST/WEST ORIENTED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY SINKING SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB
CONVERGENCE ZONE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO
DIMINISH AND BECOME LESS NUMEROUS AS IT CONTINUES TO SINK
SOUTH...THERE IS AT LEAST MODEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN KS THIS AFTERNOON. IN ALL
INSTANCES...LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN. OTHERWISE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS...LOWER DEWPOINTS AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY IN WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SHIFTING SOUTH NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90F. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER MAINLY SOUTH- CENTRAL KS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN ZONE OF RICHER 700MB MOISTURE AND
MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNAL GETS BETTER FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...AS 850-700MB WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN CONUS RIDGE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
LINGER WELL INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCES LIKELY
DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON AS WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ENCROACH
FROM THE WEST.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

HOT SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN BY FRI-
SAT...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. THINKING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE LOW...ALTHOUGH ECMWF SUGGESTS SLIGHT CHANCES OVER NORTHERN
HALF OF KS LATE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT IS ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF TO PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SLIGHT
STORM CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AREAWIDE. SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IF COOLER ECMWF VERIFIES WITH A DEEPER EASTERN
CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHEAST JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
AREA UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL EXCEPT IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  66  89  68 /  50  10  10  30
HUTCHINSON      86  65  88  67 /  60  10  10  30
NEWTON          85  64  87  67 /  60  10  10  30
ELDORADO        86  64  87  66 /  50  10  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   88  66  89  68 /  30  20  20  30
RUSSELL         86  63  88  67 /  20  10  10  30
GREAT BEND      86  63  88  67 /  40  10  10  30
SALINA          87  64  89  67 /  20  10  10  30
MCPHERSON       86  64  88  67 /  50  10  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     89  65  88  68 /  30  20  10  20
CHANUTE         86  64  87  66 /  50  10  10  20
IOLA            85  63  86  66 /  50  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    87  64  88  67 /  40  20  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







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