Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 232348
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPPER LOW IS SITUATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH MULTIPLE
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE. ONE
EXTENDS FROM NM DOWN TO BAJA WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN CA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN FROM EASTERN CO INTO EASTERN NM WITH THE OPEN GULF
ALLOWING RICH MOISTURE TO CONTINUE STREAMING INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT
SAT MAY 23 2015

THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT IS AFFECTING THE AREA
DEVELOPED DOWN IN EASTERN NM LAST EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE
HAD ISSUES HANDLING THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS AREA OF RAINFALL.
AT SOME POINT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THE MID AND UPPER
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. SHOULD ALSO SEE AN OVERALL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
AS THE STRONGER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF NM ALONG WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. JUST LIKE HAS HAPPENED SO FAR TODAY...FEEL THE MAIN
GENERATION AREA FOR THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE OVER
OK WITH THIS ACTIVITY STREAMING NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...STILL FEEL CONFIDENT THAT THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. AREAS ALONG
I-135...INCLUDING WICHITA...SHOULD GET THE BULK OF THEIR RAINFALL
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...SE OF THE KS
TURNPIKE WILL SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE DAY
SUN...ESPECIALLY AS THE MAIN UPPER VORT MAX LIFTS NORTHEAST. ONE
OF THE CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY`S MODELS RUNS IS TO MOVE THINGS EAST
QUICKER SO THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE ENDING BY AROUND
00Z MON.

STILL LOOKING AT EXTREMELY HIGH PWS FOR EASTERN KS ALONG WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINING IN PLACE WHICH WILL RESULT IN
RAINFALL RATES ABOVE 1 IN/HR AND LIKELY CLOSER TO 2 IN/HOUR.

FOR MONDAY...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT TONIGHT
THROUGH SUN AND IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER. WHILE THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT FOR EXTREME INSTABILITY EAST OF I-135...THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE IF THERE IS ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO FORCE
CONVECTION. THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS IS OVER EASTERN OK
WHERE THE VORT MAX WILL SLIDE OVER. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT IF
STORMS DO DEVELOP MON AFTERNOON/EVENING THEY WILL BE FAIRLY
ISO/SCT AND VERY SLOW MOVING. THERE IS ALSO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
IN LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SO WOULD EXPECT SLOW MOVING HP TYPE
STORMS. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT IF CONFIDENCE IN STORMS
INCREASES FOR SE KS...WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH MON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

BY TUE THE LAST PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS FAR
EASTERN KS/MO AND WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT INTO THE MID MISS VALLEY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO ALSO SHIFT EAST.
THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
DIG OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WED NIGHT INTO THU AND GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SMALL
RAIN CHANCES FOR THU...BETTER CHANCES SHOULD ARRIVE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ENERGY MOVES OUT INTO THE
PLAINS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HEAVIEST CONVECTION WILL BE SHIFTING INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT WITH POST-MCS STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD WITH ANVIL LIGHTNING
EXTENDING ABOUT 75 MILES OR SO TO THE WEST. SO THE HEAVIEST RAIN
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN +TSRA WILL BE AT THE CNU TERMINAL.

MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
ALONG/WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP OR BE ONGOING
OVER SOUTHEAST KS SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE IN
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  72  61  80 / 100  50  30  20
HUTCHINSON      57  73  61  80 /  80  30  30  20
NEWTON          58  72  61  79 / 100  50  30  30
ELDORADO        59  72  61  79 / 100  80  30  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  72  62  79 / 100  70  30  20
RUSSELL         58  73  59  79 /  30  20  30  20
GREAT BEND      58  73  59  80 /  30  20  30  20
SALINA          59  73  60  80 /  60  40  30  30
MCPHERSON       58  73  60  81 /  70  40  30  30
COFFEYVILLE     63  71  64  79 / 100 100  50  40
CHANUTE         60  71  62  79 / 100 100  50  30
IOLA            60  72  62  79 / 100 100  50  30
PARSONS-KPPF    61  71  63  79 / 100 100  50  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ052-053-068-
069-083-092-093.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KSZ070>072-094>096-
098>100.

&&

$$


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