Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 242255
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
555 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
U.S. WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. A FRONT
BISECTS KANSAS WITH COOLER 80S AND LOW 90S OVER NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S ARE PRESENT OVER THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS. WINDS ARE BREEZY
AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

AS OF 3PM THE FRONT IS SITUATED FROM NEAR CONCORDIA SOUTHWEST
INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. CU HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE SURFACE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL INDECISIVE ON HOW CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THINK THERE ARE STILL CHANCES IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CU HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD FROM THERE. THE HIGH-RES/SHORT RANGE HRRR
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
NAM/GFS KEEP IT DRY. THINK THAT CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE COVERAGE WILL BE IS LOW. IF
STORMS DO DEVELOP...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WORK WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE
WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FEEL THE BETTER CHANCES THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL BE FURTHER NORTH OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THEIR
IMPACT TO KANSAS WILL BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT
PERIODS OF RAIN/THUNDER IN CENTRAL KANSAS...SO HAVE SLIGHT POPS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR AREAS NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HEAT
INDICES BETWEEN 100-104. BY WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE DECREASING
SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW 90S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

THIS PERIOD HAS CHANGED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GUIDANCE VARYING
FROM RUN TO RUN. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND EVEN THE NAM
TO 72 HOURS SHOWS THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS. THE DISTURBANCE HAS NOW SLOWED SO THAT
MAIN IMPACT TO THE AREA WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND EVEN INTO
SATURDAY. AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES IT SLOWS AND SPINS OVER
THE COLORADO ROCKIES THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD ON
FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IMPACTING MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCES WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE...WITH LIKELY
CHANGES...IS THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND EXITING THE AREA ON
SATURDAY.

AS THE WAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
IN RESPONSE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS MAY IMPACT THE KHUT AND KSLN AREAS THROUGH
01-02Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING 40-50 MPH WINDS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT STORMS MAY
LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KRSL BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS LOW. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY WHILE VFR PREVAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75 101  75  99 /  20  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      74 101  74 100 /  20  10  20  20
NEWTON          75  99  74  98 /  20  10  10  20
ELDORADO        75 100  73  99 /  20  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   75 100  74  98 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         70  98  69  95 /  20  20  30  50
GREAT BEND      72  98  71  95 /  20  20  20  30
SALINA          74 100  72  98 /  20  20  20  30
MCPHERSON       74 100  73  98 /  20  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     74 101  75  98 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         74  99  74  98 /  10   0  10  10
IOLA            73  98  73  97 /  10   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    74 101  74  98 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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