Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 190836
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
336 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

TODAY:
INITIAL CONCERNS ARE MODEL FORECASTS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/
MOISTURE ADVECTION LEADING TO ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS
MORNING WEST OF SLN-ICT-EGT LINE. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS/RAP
ALL SHOW WHAT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CAP...BUT DID HAVE AN ATTEMPT
SOUTHWEST OF HYS EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT HAS DISSIPATED. THIS
APPEARED TO BE SEPARATE FROM DYING HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION. SO WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. BASED ON 0000 UTC RAOBS...WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME RECICULATED COLD AIR ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST
TODAY...SO WARM UP WILL BE SOMEWHAT MODERATED.

TONIGHT-MON:
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE.
TEMPERATURES ON SUN WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MON TURNING
UP HEAT ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DRY...BUT STILL KEEPING CLOSE WATCH FOR 09-15 UTC PERIOD ON SUN
AND MON ALONG WESTERN CORRIDOR OF FORECAST AREA. STILL HAVE VERY
MODEST SIGNALS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION...BUT AS MENTIONED
YESTERDAY...SIGNALS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG NOR VERY WELL
PHASED. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

FOR EXTENDED...ECMWF REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN A BIT MORE ERRATIC. GFS
HAS SHOWN MUCH MORE VARIATION IN THE AMOUNT OF RIDGING AND
RESULTANT TRACK/TIMING OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. WHILE NOT AS DISPARATE
AS THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO...STILL ENOUGH DIFFERENCE TO
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK. BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES APPEARS TO BE TUE NIGHT...HOWEVER WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND RESULTANT CAPPING WILL MAKE WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION A
TOUGH CALL. CURRENT FORECAST OF TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WOULD PUSH
HEAT INDICES TO 105-107 ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL MENTION RISK
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN DEWPOINT
FORECAST THAT FAR OUT IS LIMITED. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS FROM STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WERE BLANKETING MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT.
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES MAY REDEVELOP AFTER 09-10Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IMPACTING KICT, KHUT AND KRSL AS
THE AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST WITH TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE LOW CIGS SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED AND ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR BY AROUND 15Z AS
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH RETURN TO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    85  68  92  73 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      86  69  93  74 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          84  68  92  73 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        83  66  91  72 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   83  67  91  72 /  10  10  10   0
RUSSELL         88  71  96  76 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      87  71  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          87  70  95  76 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       85  69  94  75 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     83  65  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         84  65  90  71 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            84  65  89  71 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    84  65  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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