Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 220749
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
249 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Modest elevated moisture transport may still support isolated
convection early this morning along/north of I-70, though better
chances will remain north of the area. Otherwise, the unseasonably
warm southerly flow will continue over the area with highs topping
90F again in many locales. Russell may challenge its record of 93F
set just last year. Friday looks to be quite breezy as well as
unseasonably warm with plenty of sunshine. The main focus will be
with increasing precip chances Friday night through Saturday night
in advance of the developing western CONUS longwave upper
trof/closed low. Forcing for ascent and low level moisture transport
will increase late Friday night through Saturday with scattered
convection expected to develop and spread northeast across the area.
The more numerous to widespread convection is still anticipated
Saturday evening through Saturday night with a risk for heavy
rainfall.

Darmofal


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Spread in the medium range models tend to lower confidence a bit
through early next week. The GFS continues to show a deeper upper
trof axis extending across the Plains from the main vortex over the
Upper Midwest, whereas the ECMWF shows more stream separation
placing Kansas in a bridged/weaker shear axis between its solution
of a closed/cutoff low over the far southwest CONUS and the northern
stream trof over the Upper Midwest. That said, there is general
consensus and higher confidence on much cooler over the area with
decreasing precip chances, though timing on its demise is still a
bit uncertain.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

VFR conditions are expected to continue for the overnight hours.
Southerly winds will slowly abate overnight which will allow for
some wind shear issues to develop at RSL and GBD for a few
hours close to sunrise.  This condition is not expected to last
long as the winds will mix back down to the surface by mid morning.
Winds will again become gusty by the late morning with wind gusts
ranging in the 20 to 25 mph range.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will
reign Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    91  67  90  70 /  10   0   0  20
Hutchinson      92  67  91  69 /  10   0   0  20
Newton          90  66  89  69 /  10   0   0  20
ElDorado        90  66  89  69 /  10   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   91  68  90  71 /   0   0   0  10
Russell         92  67  91  66 /  10   0   0  40
Great Bend      93  66  92  66 /  10   0   0  40
Salina          93  68  92  69 /  10   0   0  20
McPherson       92  67  91  69 /  10   0   0  20
Coffeyville     91  66  91  70 /   0   0   0  10
Chanute         89  66  89  69 /  10   0   0  10
Iola            88  65  88  68 /  10   0   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    90  66  90  70 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...ELM



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