Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 241153
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
553 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS A LOW IS CHURNING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. MEANWHILE...A
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST
AND WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. ANY PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WARMER THAN THEY WERE
MON AS WE GET INTO SOME GOOD DOWNSLOPE. MIXING TO 850MB SHOULD
GIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO CLOSE TO 50 FOR AREAS WEST OF
I-135.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THU. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA WED
MORNING TO SOUTHEAST KS BY LATE WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
THE HEAVIER SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY LIGHT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL POSSIBLE
GENERALLY EAST OF I-135. THE BIGGER STORY WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE
ANOTHER SHOT OF EXTREMELY COLD ARCTIC AIR WED NIGHT INTO THU. JUST
LIKE YESTERDAY...TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL AS THEY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S FOR THU. WILL HOLD
ONTO SOME FLURRIES FOR THU MORNING AS UPPER ENERGY CONTINUES TO
DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THESE EXTENDED PERIODS LOOK TO BE ACTIVE AS THE PLAINS GET INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON CARVING OUT A SHARP POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH EAST AND SETUP STRONG RETURN FLOW OVER
THE PLAINS. WHILE THE MID LEVELS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT...DRY LOW LAYERS WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL EARLY
SAT MORNING. VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ON SAT. THERE REALLY ISN`T MUCH IN THE WAY
OF FRONTOGENESIS UNTIL SAT NIGHT WHEN COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO SOME SLEET SAT NIGHT. WHILE IT`S LIKELY THE STORM TRACK
WILL SHIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS CENTRAL
KS WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEING IMPACT BY SOME HAZARDOUS WINTER
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

STRATOCU FROM 5,000-6,000FT THAT HAS COVERING SE KS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT WILL LITERALLY CLEAR KCNU ~14Z. ALL AREAS TO REMAIN IN VFR
COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE 24/12Z PERIOD ALTHOUGH WLY WINDS ~10KTS WL
SHIFT TO THE NW & SLIGHTLY INCREASE TO 13-17KTS/15-20MPH AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SFC TROF...FIRST AT KRSL 15-17Z...KSLN 16-18Z...
THEN AT KICT ~20Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY...THEY WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WHICH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RH`S STAYING ABOVE 40%.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. BY WED
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS ANOTHER SHOT OF
POLAR AIR INVADES THE REGION WED NIGHT...PROVIDING HIGHS ON THU
IN THE 20S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    45  20  46  17 /   0   0  10  30
HUTCHINSON      48  21  47  15 /   0   0  10  30
NEWTON          46  21  46  15 /   0   0  20  30
ELDORADO        45  21  46  17 /   0   0  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   44  20  48  19 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         50  21  48  13 /   0   0  20  20
GREAT BEND      50  21  48  14 /   0   0  20  20
SALINA          48  23  46  15 /   0   0  30  30
MCPHERSON       47  22  46  15 /   0   0  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     42  21  46  21 /   0   0   0  30
CHANUTE         43  21  46  18 /   0   0  10  40
IOLA            42  21  46  18 /   0   0  10  40
PARSONS-KPPF    42  21  46  20 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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