Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 190813
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIP TRENDS AND AMOUNTS LATER
TODAY THRU EARLY WEDNESDAY AND RISK FOR RENEWED FLOODING.
INITIAL SHORTWAVE LIFT AND MOISTURE RETURN IS SUPPORTING
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BETTER ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE GOING FORECAST
WITH ONLY SUBTLE TWEAKS MADE TO THE PRECIP PROBABILITIES.
DECENT SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE WEAK/MARGINAL INSTABILITY...THOUGH
LIMITING ORGANIZED STRONG CONVECTION. QPF AMOUNTS WHILE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY EXCESSIVE...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
RENEW RISES ON SOME RIVERS AND CREEKS. WHILE WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW AROUND ONE INCH BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT DEEPER CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/RED RIVER REGION LATER TODAY MAY LESSEN
RAINFALL POTENTIAL A BIT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS IN
PART OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THE WATCH IN SPACE AND TIME AS ADVERTISED.
ANOTHER RATHER BRIEF RESPITE IN THE WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EVOLVING INTO A MEAN UPPER TROF ACROSS
WESTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH SOME
ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
BY SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE KANSAS PLAINS WITH A
GENERAL WARMING TREND. THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH WEAK TO
LITTLE CAPPING WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC CONVECTIVE EPISODES.
THIS WILL ALSO MEAN POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN
A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR ON
TIMING AND MAGNITUDE.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...QUIET VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY MIDDAY. THEREAFTER...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SHOULD ALLOW LOW VFR
TO HIGH MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000-4000 FT AGL TO SPREAD/DEVELOP NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS
OF RAIN APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST...LIKELY OVERSPREADING
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST-EAST OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...INCREASING SOME TUESDAY MORNING AND BECOMING MORE EASTERLY.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  53  63  46 /  40  90  40  10
HUTCHINSON      63  49  62  44 /  50  90  30  10
NEWTON          63  50  60  44 /  40  90  40  10
ELDORADO        66  52  62  46 /  30  90  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  55  65  48 /  40  90  50  10
RUSSELL         57  44  57  42 /  80  90  20  10
GREAT BEND      58  45  58  43 /  80  90  20  10
SALINA          61  47  60  43 /  40  90  40  10
MCPHERSON       62  48  60  43 /  50  90  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     71  57  66  50 /  10  90  60  10
CHANUTE         68  54  63  48 /  10  90  60  10
IOLA            68  53  61  48 /  10  90  60  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  56  65  49 /  10  90  60  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ051>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



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