Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 182336

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
636 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

Issued at 630 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

A weak cold front will drop southward across the area this
afternoon and evening and will stall out across the region tonight
and dissipate. Unseasonably mild conditions will continue across
the region through Friday. Dry conditions will also persist
through Monday as a ridge of high pressure settles across the
area. The next chance of rain will be Monday night into Tuesday
followed by a likelihood of rain and a few embedded thunderstorms
for next Friday with breezy conditions developing. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s.
High temperatures Sunday will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s,
except cooler near Lake Michigan due to a lake breeze.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

A weak cold front will move east, but will have very little effect
on temperatures or weather. After lows tonight in the mid 30s to
lower 40s, highs Sunday should be well above normal in the 60s again
and approach the records of 67 at Ft Wayne and 65 at South Bend.
Winds will back to the south but should remain light as a weak
surface pressure gradient remains over the area.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

The unseasonably mild pattern will persist through most of the
upcoming week with highs well above normal as the long wave upper
trof persists over western North America. A leading short wave
trof has moved out of the main long wave trof and moved onshore
over California and Baja California. This system will move east
and should reach the forecast area Monday night and spread showers
over the area into Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF have come into good
agreement with the timing of this system along with the Canadian
GEM suggesting the best chance for rain late Monday and early
Tuesday. Otherwise, there will be a little break in the rain
Tuesday night and Wednesday before a stronger system reaches the
area Thursday and Friday. Temperatures should still be mild into
Friday, but then turn much colder Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

Hires guidance indicating potential for dense fog/stratus
overnight just south of KFWA with MVFR VIS restrictions further
north. This guidance tends to be very pessimistic and can never be
trusted from when it is correct vs not correct in developing
stratus/fog situations. Low level winds will become light
overnight with decaying cold front across the region. This is a
more favored scenario for BR development when more moist low level
air is in place. For now sided toward MVFR VIS restrictions and
will watch area of stratus over far southern IN this evening and
see if it creeps north with any additional development. Did add
some MVFR VIS to KSBN per guidance and weak winds.




SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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