Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 310758
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
358 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO TODAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVG SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WAS
CONTINUING TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA. MOST
PERSISTENT BAND OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN LOCATED IN MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
ZONE ACROSS NW INDIANA/SW MICHIGAN... WHICH SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AS THE LOW DEPARTS. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS HAS
STABILIZED SOME SINCE FROPA AND RAINFALL RATES THIS MORNING WILL NOT
BE AS HEAVY AS THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAYS THUNDERSTORMS...
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTS OVER 1.5 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD LAYER
DEPTHS AROUND 11KFT RESULTING IN VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESSES. SO STILL APPEARS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AND CONSIDERING HIGH AMOUNTS THAT FELL IN
THE AREA YDAY... WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH GOING THIS MORNING. LIGHT
SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM W-E ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN/TNGT
AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. LINGERING MOIST NE FLOW AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD COMBINE TO KEEP SKIES CLOUDY ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY TODAY WITH JUST A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS FROM
NW-SE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGE WITH HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE M-U50S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE M-U40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL START OFF THE PERIOD AS OVERALL
TROUGHINESS LINGERS OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. MODELS SUGGESTING
UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF AND MEANDERING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES,
THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INITIALLY BOTTLED
UP AND ALLOW FOR PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY.

EVENTUALLY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. HAVE GRUDGINGLY
MAINTAINED SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS WITH SIGNALS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE
FOR PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND HARD TO TIME
SUBTLE WAVES THAT COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 130 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MOVE EAST TO WRN PA OVER THE
NEXT 24HRS. BAND OF RAIN NORTH OF THE LOW SHOULD CONT TO IMPACT SBN
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS IT SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. FWA IN MORE SHOWERY SECTOR OF THE STORM ATTM BUT
LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS BAND AFFECTING SBN WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NE
INDIANA THIS MORNING. RAIN EXPECTED TO END AT THE TERMINALS BY
EARLY AFTN AS LOW MOVES AWAY... HOWEVER IFR CIGS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AND WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TODAY WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY PERSISTING
THIS AFTN/EVE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.

MI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ078>081.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-024.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...JT


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