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000
FXUS63 KIWX 160123
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
923 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND OHIO WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN
THE UPPER 70S WILL ARRIVE NORTH OF THE FRONT AND LINGER INTO
FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BUCKLE BACK NORTHWARD THIS
WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

WK SHRTWV DROPPING ESE INTO NWRN PORTION OF CWA THIS EVE ACTING UPON
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME MID-UPR LEVEL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE A LINE OF MOSTLY VIRGA... BUT A FEW SPRINKLES REPORTED
UPSTREAM IN NE IL AS IT PASSED THROUGH. THUS... ADDED CHC OF
SPRINKLES TO GRIDS/ZFP MOVG E-SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE...OTRWS
MINOR ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY TEMPS... LOW CHC OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP AND GOING MINS TONIGHT STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

INITIAL BOUNDARY/LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE WAS SETTLING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS STRUGGLED TO HOLD
TOGETHER FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL IL AND WERE TRYING TO MOVE INTO
FAR SW SECTIONS INTO THIS EVENING. MUCH LIKE ACTIVITY TO THE EAST IT
HAS BEEN WEAKENING WITH TIME. DRIER AIR WAS WORKING IN A COUNTY OR 2
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S.

FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
CONTINUING TO MOVE ALONG IT. WITH MSTR PROFILE SO ANEMIC CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN EXTREMELY LOW CONTINUED TO TRIM BACK POPS WITH ONLY
SLGT CHC INTO EARLY EVE FOLLOW BY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. HANDFUL OF MODELS ATTEMPT TO BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY INTO FAR SW SECTIONS THURS AFTERNOON. CAN`T ARGUE WITH
LOWER POPS IN THIS PERIOD AS FRONT SHIFTS NORTH/SOUTH WITH TIME
THROUGH THE DAY.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS...AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD SEE LOWS
DROP INTO THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH LOW TO MID 50S FURTHER
SOUTH. BLEND OF TOP 3 MODELS SUGGEST HIGHS COULD BE A BIT TOO COOL
WITH STRONG MIXING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE BLENDED
BETWEEN THESE 3 AND PAST FORECAST RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THETA E GRADIENT WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE A RUN FOR SW AREAS
STARTING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BUT MAIN FORCING WILL REMAIN
SOUTH...WARRANTING LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIP FOR THE TIME BEING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL INTO SUNDAY.

LARGE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PLAINS WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW
ATTEMPTING TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WITH TIME. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY BE FORCED NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE NEW WEEK WITH A RETURN TO LOW TO MID 80S ALONG WITH BETTER MSTR
PROFILES. WITH MAIN FORCING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WIDELY SCT TO SCT AT BEST INTO TUESDAY. RAN WITH ALLBLEND
IN THESE PERIOD. MODELS VARYING ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF TROUGH
SHIFTING EAST WITH GFS/GEFS SIGNIFICANTLY DAMPENING THE TROUGH AS IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA BY WEDS. ECMWF REMAINS STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY
SLOWER. HAVE WENT WITH HIGH END CHC POPS FOR WEDS BUT HELD SHY OF
LIKELY POPS WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC WAS
ORIENTED E-W ACROSS NRN INDIANA PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL FLOW. FRONT
WAS MAKING SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD PASS THROUGH FWA BY
00Z. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WAS FAIRLY WEAK AND
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LIMITED... SO PROSPECTS FOR ANY CONVECTION AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVE ARE SLIM. A SECONDARY WK SHRTWV WILL DROP
ESE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE. A FEW SPRINKLES OCRG UPSTREAM ALONG
THIS FEATURE BUT GIVEN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AVIATION CONDITIONS
LEFT OUT OF TAFS WITH JUST SCT-BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
CONVERGENCE ALONG STNRY FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER THU AS WK
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA IN BTWN CLOSED LOWS OVER SE CANADA AND
THE SRN PLAINS. LIGHT/VRBL SFC WINDS EXPECTED AT FWA WITH A LAKE
BREEZE PUSHING THROUGH SBN IN THU AFTN RESULTING IN NW WINDS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...GREENAWALT/FISHER
AVIATION...JT


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