Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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513
FXUS63 KIWX 210845
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
445 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 435 AM EDT Thu Jul 21 2016

A strong upper level ridge centered over the southern plains will
continue to expand northeast into the the western Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley today causing hot and humid conditions. There is a low
chance of thunderstorms west of I69 today, and across the entire
area tonight as a weak low pressure system moves across southern
Ontario and into the lower Great Lakes. Highs today will be in the
upper 80s to mid 90s with heat indices around 100. Lows tonight
will only be in the 70s. Hot and humid conditions will continue
into the weekend. A cold front will move through the area Sunday
bringing a good chance of thunderstorms, followed by cooler and
drier weather early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Upr ridge extending ne from OK to the upr grtlks will move se into our
area today as a wk shrtwv over manitoba/nd moves e-se to sern
Ontario/upr grtlks. Recent amdar soundings over nw IN indicated
airmass had become moderately unstable in this area with lesser
instability over ern portions of the cwa indicated by 00z dtx/iln
soundings. Wk low level waa will provide wk lift across the area
today and may allow a few showers/tstms to develop this aftn as
s-sw low level flow conts to advect moisture into the area and
diurnal heating further destabilizes airmass. Also, Hires cams
suggest ongoing convection over nw mn may persist and propagate
along instability gradient toward our area. Thus, fcst schc/chc
tstms across about the nw 1/2 of the cwa this aftn. H85 temps
progged to warm 2-3c today over yday when highs were around 90.
This should mix down to the sfc today resulting in highs in the
l-m90s which combined with dwpts in the l-m70s should result in
heat index readings above advisory criteria (around 100) over
most of the area this aftn.

NAM/GFS have been fairly consistent suggesting tstms associated
with upr grtlks shrtwv will drop south across lwr mi tonight with
further convection dvlpg along the associated sfc boundary over
srn mi on Friday and movg into our area as airmass undergoes
diurnal destabilization. Meanwhile latest ARW/NMM indicate mcs
emanating from this system will move se across the swrn portion of
our cwa this aftn/eve taking effective boundary south of our area
by Friday morning, leaving the late night period and Friday dry.
Given the large differences in the models stayed close to going
fcsts with low chc of storms late tonight and Friday. Otrws
should be quite muggy tonight with lows in the l-m70s and with
little change in h85 temps, even in THE hires models, expect highs
in the l90s over most of the area.

Deep layer shear should remain limited through through friday though
instability expected to be quite strong and also some potential for
forward propagating mcs impacting the area later today and/or
overnight so marginal threat of svr storms with strong gusty winds through
fri.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT Thu Jul 21 2016

GFS/ECMWF support keeping a low chc of tstms in the area Fri
ngt/Sat as they suggest backdoor front moves in and stalls. Again
little change in h85 temps suggests highs contg in the 90s but
dewpoints north of the boundary could be a bit lower saturday.
This boundary should lift n-ne sat ngt/sunday morning psbly
triggering tstms, as a rather strong shrtwv and associated cdfnt
move east from the nrn/central plains. This front expected to move
across the area Sunday aftn/night bringing a good chc of tstms
with it, followed by cooler drier wx mon-wed.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Much uncertainty concerning upstream convection over Minnesota
and how these storms will develop and move southeast. Have kept
thunder out of TAFs for now, although it is possible a storm may
develop or move into the area late this afternoon and this
evening. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions although a isolated and
brief time of fog is possible around daybreak.


&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Friday for
     INZ006-007-009.

     Heat Advisory from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 8 PM
     EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for INZ003>005-008-012>018-020-
     022>027-032>034.

MI...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Friday for
     MIZ077>081.

OH...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Friday for
     OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...Skipper


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