Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 181643
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1243 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IN/OH THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NE TO NEW
ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING WHILE SHRTWV OVER MO/ARK MOVES NE
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY WITH SFC REFLECTION INVERTED TROF DEVELOPING
NEWD FROM TN INTO CENTRAL OH. MAIN MOISTURE/FORCING/INSTABILITY
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BYPASS OUR AREA TO THE SE BUT A FEW
SHOWERS COULD REACH THE SERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT.

UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WILL CONT TO SLOWLY MODIFY
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SUFFICIENT
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TONIGHT TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SE... BUT
THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE M-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY. FOR THIS PACKAGE...FAVORED A GFS SOLUTION
EARLY...FOLLOWED BY A GFS/ECMWF BLEND NEXT WEEK. THE GFS APPEARS TO
HANDLE THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM REASONABLY WELL...AND BRINGS THE UPPER
LOW INTO OHIO EARLY SATURDAY. GIVEN SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
SATURATION ON THE 305K SFC...IN ADDITION TO DEEP SATURATION THROUGH
THE MID LEVELS...HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER EAST AREAS
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A MAJOR
SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTHEAST
INTO THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING WARMER MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND APPEARS ON TRACK GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS GENERALLY 17C TO
20C. CAN NOT DISCOUNT THE GFS/MEX HIGH TEMPS TOPPING 90 DEGREES.
RAISED HIGHS WEDNESDAY A LITTLE TO MATCH THESE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO PLACE SOME DETAIL IN THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER TROF
DESCENDS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. USED A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NOW BEING REACHED ACROSS THE AREA WITH
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT YET TO ALLOW FOR DIURNAL
CU DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN. LIKE CLOCKWORK CU WILL DISSIPATE ONCE
AGAIN TOWARDS EVENING WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH FROM
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SE OF THE AREA. THE RESULT OF ALL THIS WILL
BE CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER


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