Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 191732

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
132 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Issued at 140 AM EDT Mom Jun 18 2017

A strong low pressure system over southeast Ontario will move
slowly northeast early this week resulting in cooler and less
humid air over our area. A couple of troughs rotating around the
Ontario low are expected to cause scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms in our area today and Tuesday. High pressure will
move across our area Wednesday providing fair weather. The high
will move east late this week as a cold front approaches from the
northwest, resulting in warmer more humid conditions with a chance
of thunderstorms.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Tuesday)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Sw trough spreading ewd across cntrl lake MI triggering sct tsra
this aftn esp along sfc composite lake breeze confluent zone from nw
IN through srn MI. Expect coverage will widen further through mid
aftn in response to continued favorable sfc based destabilization as
cold pool aloft deepens overhead. Otherwise activity will pull
quickly ewd out out of the cwa by evening.

Similar situation expected tomorrow as nw flow aloft across the
lakes continues before breaking long term. Upstream sw dropping
through MB looks fairly robust per water vapor imagery. Fittingly
bulk of latest and prior CAMS models point to vigorous convective
development by mid aftn Tue along leading edge of mid level trough.
Given attendant speed max nr 80kts and focused ascent plume likely
to see some loose organization.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Tricky period stemming from tropical disturbance developing through
the northern Gomex and eventual northward progression into the mid
MS/lower OH valley late period.

Start of the period features newd progression of mean troughing
through se Canada and upstream height rises across the lakes. More
summer like weather expected as a result as sw flow deepens across
the area swd of next vigorous disturbance amplifying through srn
Canada dys 4-5 (Thu/Fri) with active w-e oriented frontal zone
aligned through the srn lakes/OH valley. In absence of a more
concerted model consensus at this range will generally follow
blended guidance in lieu of a more compelling solution.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

An upper level disturbance combined with cold air aloft this
afternoon will sct showers/storms this afternoon.





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