Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KLBF 232059
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
359 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

H5 UA HAND ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGING...2 CLOSED
LOWS WERE NOTED...ONE OVER NRN HUDSON BAY AND A SECOND JUST WEST
OF NEWFOUNDLAND. A TROUGH EXTENDED SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A TANDEM OF STRONG
SHORTWAVES WAS NOTED JUST OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE AND A
SECOND OFF THE COAST BRITISH COLUMBIA. HT FALLS OF 50 TO 70 METERS
WERE NOTED THIS MORNING FROM EASTERN WASHINGTON SWD TO NRN
CALIFORNIA...NEVADA..OREGON...UTAH...IDAHO AND WESTERN COLORADO.
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON HAS THE DISTURBANCE OVER SERN OREGON
THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER NRN NEVADA AND NORTHERN UTAH...WITH SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES OCCURRING RECENTLY OVER NRN UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
COLORADO AND WYOMING ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. SRLY WINDS HAVE
INCREASED EAST OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS WERE FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...3 PM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM 52 AT THEDFORD TO 62 AINSWORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM IS ONSHORE NOW...AND
HAS BEEN WELL SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR OBSERVING NETWORK. THE
OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A LESS AMPLIFIED AND WEAKER
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS IN THE LOWER LEVELS REMAINS VERY DRY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STILL DOWN IN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS SOUTH TOWARD TH GULF OF MEXICO.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT...AND WILL HELP DRAW SOME
OF THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS SLATED TO REMAIN EAST OF OUR IMMEDIATE AREA...POINTED
MORE AT NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS IS WHERE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL RESIDE. CANNOT RULE OUT CHANCES FARTHER WEST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA HOWEVER...AS LIFT AND SOME MOISTURE DO
COINCIDE WITH ONE ANOTHER. A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS
ALSO STILL ADVERTISED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...AND RESULTS IN SOME INSTABILITY IN THE MOIST MID LAYER.
SO WILL CONTINUE THE ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
MILD NIGHT...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO REMAIN
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND
HILLTOPS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THOUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...AND EXPECTING AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AS LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THIS TIME. THE MOISTURE IS
BEST AT THIS TIME AS WELL...SO WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS FROM
ABOUT HIGHWAY 183 EASTWARD. DOWNGLIDE QUICKLY DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES...AND HAVE LOWERED CHANCES FOR RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND HAVE CUT ALL
TOGETHER ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS DEVELOP AS THE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL...AND
ANTICIPATING VERY DRY AIR TO SWEEP EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND
EXPECTING CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE...THE
COMBINATION OF GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY TUESDAY...LEADS
TO A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN FARTHER SOUTH. SO WE/LL ISSUE A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE AREA OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...AND PASS ALONG THE UNCERTAINTY FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

MIDDLE PERIODS /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING
WITH 850HPA TEMPS RANGING FROM 5 TO 10C BY 25/06Z. BUMPED MIN TEMPS
UP A COUPLE DEGREES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHICH TRENDS CLOSER TO
MAV GUIDANCE. ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
FROM 00Z TO 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT AS SIMULATED ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDINGS
FROM THE NAM AND GFS DRY THE LOW AND MID LEVELS CONSIDERABLY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF ND/MN
WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE NAM KEEPS THE BEST MID LEVEL /500 TO 700HPA/ FRONTOGENESIS AND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WHEREAS THE GFS TARGETS THE
SANDHILLS TO PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. WENT TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION AND
LIMITED POPS TO GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 FROM 06Z TO
12Z. THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY APPEARS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
SETTLES ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH BRISK NORTHERLY
WINDS...LIMITED SUNSHINE...AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOWERED
MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL PRECIP MAKER ARRIVES EARLY THURSDAY. A BATCH OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ENTERS THE PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA
AFTER 26/12Z. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP ARRIVAL...WET
SNOW IS POSSIBLE DUE TO MORNING LOWS IN THE 20S. ATTM...THE BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIP IS AFTER 18Z AND EXTENDED POPS EASTWARD AS RAIN.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...MOST NOTABLE AT 295K...AND LAPSE RATES NEAR
7C/KM IN THE SATURATED LAYER WILL HELP IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR
NOW...KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE AND QPF LIMITED...BUT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAINLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83. LOWERED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR NORTH
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED PERIOD /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THURSDAYS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA BY FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT CONTINUED NORTH WINDS AND SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES WILL
MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY ON FRIDAY. A STRONG RIDGE WILL WORK EAST
ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. 500HPA HEIGHTS OF 570DM ALONG WITH 850HPA TEMPS
NEARING 20C IN THE PANHANDLE WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S
EAST TO MID 70S WEST. THE RIDGE FLATTENS SOMEWHAT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...PLACING THE FORECAST AREA INTO BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW.
ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS MAX TEMPS REMAIN NEAR 70F.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE STRATUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURGE IN MOISTURE. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THAT
THE MOST OF THE STRATUS AND MVFR SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF A
VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE LINE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO LOW ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE IN EITHER THE KVTN OR KLBF TAF
FORECAST. ANY MVFR/STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...AND SWITCH TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 25 KTS AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING...AND ANTICIPATING VERY DRY AIR TO SWEEP EASTWARD
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S...AND EXPECTING CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE...THE COMBINATION OF GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER FOR AT LEAST
PART OF THE DAY TUESDAY...LEADS TO A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN
FARTHER SOUTH. SO WE/LL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE AREA OF
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND PASS ALONG THE
UNCERTAINTY FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...TAYLOR
FIRE WEATHER...TAYLOR





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.