Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 311145 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
645 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODELS IN SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM IN PUSHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. SOME ONGOING SHOWERS VIRGA
OVER NORTHWEST ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND NAM LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE NAM SOLUTION. FRONT JUST INTO
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. 3 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGE OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA ONLY 1MB WITH 4MB CHANGE OVER MONTANA. FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ZONES THROUGH LATE MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE STALLING OUT ALONG A LINE FROM
OGALLALA TO AINSWORTH. COOLER OVER NORTHWEST ZONES TODAY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. GOOD INSOLATION AND
FAIRLY STRONG WAA OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN AROUND 90. FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING AROUND
THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT WILL
GIVE ENOUGH LIFT FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS EARLY
THIS EVENING BUT HAVE RETAINED MOSTLY SCHC POPS ALONG THE STALLED
OUT FRONT THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH WITH THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST AND HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS THUS LOWER
POPS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S WEST AND 60S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE/LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA MIDWEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK
ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. A GENERAL SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK. .

CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE SLIM UNTIL LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WHEN BETTER
UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS
TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS TIME
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY /30 PERCENT/
DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE FRONT AND
HAS IT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT DELAYING THE PASSAGE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING . THE
DIFFERENCES ARE LIKELY DUE TO THE ECMWF HOLDING BACK THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LONGER THAN THE GFS. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE...BUT LEANS CLOSER TO THE
GFS AND A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A RATHER
DIFFICULT FORECAST AT THIS POINT FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND. FEEL THE
BEST APPROACH AT THIS POINT IS TO INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WILL TREND HIGHS DOWN FROM NEAR 90 FRIDAY TO
80S SATURDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING. BASES ARE AOA BKN060. THERE IS ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY ABOVE 3SM. A COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING AND
STALL OUT ALONG A LINE FROM KOGA TO KANW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LINE AND SPREADING
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH ISOLATED NATURE OF STORMS HAVE
JUST CARRIED VCTS AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER


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