Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 140533

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1133 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Main forecast challenge will be temperatures. Looking at visible
satellite today the only counties without snow cover in western
Nebraska are Garden, Grant and Arthur. The heaviest snow cover looks
to be over Northern Sheridan, Pine Ridge and through central Cherry
county where the last event dropped from 8 to 12 inches of snow in a
narrow band. Wide spread snow cover extends from southwest Nebraska
from Imperial to Tryon to Valentine and east. Temperature grids will
reflect this pattern both over night lows and Wednesdays highs.
Forecast highs were cut back today by a category and right now that
looks good. Models have temperatures rising into the upper 50s to
low 60s but are not accounting for the snow fields. Ridge building
east with warm front through the Panhandle on Wednesday. West to
southwest winds expected tonight through Wednesday with stronger
component north. Increasing clouds over southwest towards sunrise
and increasing through the afternoon but still partly cloudy skies
expected. Dry weather expected through the next 24 hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

A cold front will begin to move into northern Nebraska Wednesday
night. This will bring into cooler temperatures for Thursday.
Highs were raised to 45 to 48 degrees near and south of I80,
while far northern Nebraska raised slightly to the low to mid 30s.
Northwest winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph late morning
thorugh the afternoon. A chance for light snow into north central
Nebraska during the afternoon, with a 40 to 50 percent chance
across the Pine Ridge. The past few models forecasts, keep the
remainder of the area dry Thursday night. This is primarily due
to the models indicating less available moisture and the system
track remaining to our north across the Dakotas into Minnesota.

On Friday, winds will return to the southwest with a modest
warmup to the low 30s east and the upper 30s to around 40 west.
A further warmup this weekend as a long wave trough drops south
from western Canada into the northwestern U.S. and a deep closed
low rotates over Hudson Bay. This will bring increasingly zonal
flow and mild temperatures in the mid 40s Saturday and Sunday. A
cold front is forecast to move into the area Sunday. The latest
ECMWF is faster with the cold front by over 6 hours than the GFS.
Therefore highs have the potential to range in the mid 50s to
lower 60s, per GFS MOS guidance. There is a chance for light snow
Sunday night through Tuesday, as an upper trough digs across the
Great Basin. Snow chances ranging up to 30 percent at this time,
as models differ in timing and location. Monday and Tuesday will
be much colder as an arctic airmass settles into the area. Highs
from the upper teens to mid 20s Monday, and low to mid 20s
Tuesday. To put the cold temperatures into perspective, highs
Monday are forecast to be around 20 degrees below normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Some scattered high clouds will be possible at the KLBF terminal
through Wednesday afternoon with broken high clouds expected by
Wednesday evening. For the KVTN terminal, expect clear skies
through Wednesday afternoon with some few high clouds Wednesday
evening. Winds will generally be from the west or southwest at
under 10 KTS, except Wednesday afternoon at the KVTN terminal
where wind gusts to 25 KTS are possible.


Issued at 256 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Recent cold temperatures have caused ice to persist on the
rivers. This has caused localized ice jamming to occur. Known
areas this is occurring is on the North Platte river and South
Platte river at North Platte locations. For both locations, a
river statement was issued highlighting elevated river conditions
due to the ice. No flooding, which could affect residences is
expected. With milder temperatures in the forecast through next
Sunday, this should help to break up the ice and cause any ice
jams to end. Cold temperatures next week, however could cause a
recurrence in ice jamming.




LONG TERM...Roberg
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