Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 291733

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1133 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

The main sensible weather concerns were snowfall across Pine
Ridge and the far northwestern NEB Sandhills, snowfall chances
elsewhere, winds, and temperatures. The main highlights in the
short term period include: the ongoing winter weather advisory for
Sheridan and Western Cherry counties, windy conditions, and a
cool down in temperatures that starts today with highs forecast
2-8 degrees below normal.

The large scale pattern currently features an deep closed low
over the eastern Middle Missouri Valley and the western Upper
Mississippi Valley with a broad 500 hPa trough over the Western
CONUS and Great Plains. The system is vertically stacked with a
982 mb surface low presently based on latest SPC Mesoanalysis. The
system will move slowly east more into the Upper Mississippi
Valley the next 24 hrs. Upslope snow is anticipated to continue
over the Pine Ridge-far northwestern NEB Sandhills for much of
today and overnight wherein light snow has already started. Will
see precipitation chances spread eastward into north central NEB
late morning into the afternoon today. Current thinking remains
that 2-4 inches will fall today-tonight in a narrow corridor via
upslope enhancement, mainly north and along highway 20 between Hay
Springs and Cody. Elsewhere, up to 2 inches will be possible in
extreme northern eastern Cherry and Keya Paha counties today-

Conditions will deteriorate in the Pine Ridge and far
northwestern Sandhills areas as windy conditions develop today and
combine with the accumulating snow. Of which, said windy
conditions will affect all of western and north central NEB. The
cyclone will promote strong winds across western and north
central NEB today wherein there is good potential for upper levels
winds to mix down to the surface via momentum transfer based on
BUFKIT soundings. Gusts are expected to peak to 25-40 kts this
afternoon, strongest across the eastern NEB Panhandle and the
western and central Sandhills. While winds will lessen some
overnight, strong breezes will continue across western and north
central NEB. No change to the winter weather advisory. A concern
regarding the winter weather advisory is what impacts will be seen
today in terms of visibility as areas of blowing snow is expected
 current thinking is sub-one mile visibilities will be possible
at times. Not confident that areas will see frequent occurrences
less than one half mile at this time in the winter weather
advisory area. Will need to monitored this over the course of

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Wednesday, the low pressure system center will slide from near
the twin cities towards the Great Lakes. Lingering wrap around
light snow expected across northern Neb. During the afternoon if
there are a few breaks in the clouds will allow for temps to begin
to warm with steep lapse rates developing and may be enough for
some flurries across the sandhills and portions of N central,
south of the lingering light snow near the Neb/SD border.

By Wed night the system will be far enough east that clearing
should spread across the area. Light winds develop with lows in
the teens and low 20s.

Slight warm up to end the week into the weekend as a low digs
south over the western Rockies towards the 4 corners. A second
low will push across central Canada. A cold front will slide
across the area Sunday night or Monday. Ahead of the front dry
conditions and seasonal to seasonally warm temps with 40s with a
few low 50s possible. Any snow pack across the northern zones will
likely keep highs in the lower 30s. Watching post frontal
conditions as cooler temps from the north spread south along with
a chance for precip. The cooler air in place and any precip
expected to be snow.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

MVFR ceilings should persist at KVTN through the entire taf
period. Visibility will be reduced to around 2sm at times, while
mainly range near 6sm or higher. VFR conditions should persist at
KLBF, although there will be intermittent light snow showers this
afternoon with visibilites remaining p6sm.

A storm system will promote strong winds across the entire forecast
area with gusts up to 35 kts, strongest in the western Sandhills.
Winds will lessen some overnight, however, expect strong breezes
to continue. Furthermore, snow is expected across the northern
third of the forecast area into Wednesday morning.


Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Wednesday for



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