Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 211226
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
726 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a closed low and trough
of low pressure over the western Great Lakes. west of this
feature, a ridge was present from western South Dakota into
southern Saskatchewan. West of the ridge, a trough of low pressure
extended from northern Idaho into northern Utah. In advance of
this feature, showers had developed across Colorado and Wyoming
tonight. This activity had pushed east into the southern Nebraska
panhandle and far southwestern Nebraska overnight. As it moves
east, it is encountering some dry air with the bulk of radar
returns not reaching the ground. At the surface, high pressure was
anchored over the eastern Dakotas into northeastern Nebraska.
Southeast of this feature, light easterly winds were present
across western and southwestern Nebraska, while winds were nearly
calm over northeastern Nebraska. With mostly cloudy skies in
place, 3 AM CDT readings ranged from around 40 across northern
Nebraska, to the lower 50s in far southwestern Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Over the next 24 hours, precipitation chances will be the main
concern. Looking at the latest NAM12, GFS, HRRR and WARW, the best
forcing for precipitation across the forecast area will be
confined to the far southwestern forecast area today. AS
precipitation tracks east from Colorado this morning, it will
encounter drier air and have a harder time reaching the surface.
That being said, pops were generally confined to the far southwest
and eastern panhandle portions of the forecast area. QPF`s were
dropped as well based on the latest model trends. Later today,
precipitation chances will shift southwest and south of the area
as the main upper level system ejects southeast into Kansas. For
the remainder of western and north central Nebraska, skies will be
mostly cloudy today as a shroud of mid and high level cloudiness
streams into the area from the southwest. This persistent
cloudiness, will hold temperatures down today. Highs will range
from the lower 50s in the far southwest to around 60 in the north
and northeastern cwa. For tonight, as an upper level low tracks
into eastern Kansas and Missouri overnight tonight, a secondary
shortwave will slide southeast across Wyoming into northern
Colorado. This feature will lead to continued cloudiness across
the west and southwestern forecast area. Some limited clearing
will be possible in the northeast as a reinforcing shot of high
pressure noses into northeastern Nebraska. Lows tonight will be in
the upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Upper level ridging will build across the area this weekend. This
will bring mainly sunny skies and warmer temperatures, with highs
low to mid 60s Saturday and low to mid 70s Sunday. South winds will
be on the increase Sunday as a leeward trough develops along the
front range of the Rockies. A tight surface pressure gradient will
support gusts of 30 to 40 mph by mid to late afternoon across
central and western Nebraska.

The next system is forecast to move across the northern plains
Monday. Most of the precipitation with this system will remain well
north in the Dakotas. Then by midweek conditions turn more
unsettled. ECMWF is the most aggressive with a deep trough carving
into the Rockies. Strong surface cyclogenesis and rain/thunder
develop east of the upper trough across much of the central plains.
At the very least it looks like above normal precipitation is
heading our way next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 726 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Expect mainly cloudy skies across western and north central
Nebraska today into this evening. Ceilings will mainly be in the
7000 to 12000 FT AGL range. The exception will be at the KLBF
terminal where ceilings may approach 3500 FT AGL through late
morning. Skies will gradually clear this evening across northern
Nebraska, however broken ceilings around 10000 FT AGL will
continue into the overnight hours at the KLBF terminal.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Buttler



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