Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 101126
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
626 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Latest water vapor imagery shows a Rex block pattern with adjacent
upper level high and low over the Pacific offshore waters of the
Pacific Northwest and northern CA, respectively. The flow leaving
the Rex block is converging downstream across the Northern/Central
Rockies and a short wave trough is located over the Red River Valley
presently moving southeastward. Latest surface plot and NtMicro RGB
imagery shows the development of patchy/areas of fog in south
central NEB with visibility ranging from 1/4SM to 5SM. Current
thinking is patchy fog will spread westward into some of the
southeast half of the local forecast area where skies remain more so
mostly clear, specifically as far west as Hayes Center, North
Platte, Broken Bow, and Burwell. Will need to monitor though as
uncertain how much visibilities will deteriorate if this occurs.

Regional radar display shows isolated-scattered showers upstream
developing in northeast CO and western Panhandle. These showers will
continue moving eastward early this morning, however, drier air will
inhibit its progress some. Showers are then anticipated to
develop/increase in coverage more so mid-morning onward as low-level
warm air advection amplifies and there is increasing large scale
ascent attributable to an approaching mid-level weak short wave
trough. Guidance continue to hint at weak instability with greatest
quantity along and south of the Interstate 80 corridor thus thunder
will be possible. A marginally strong (sub-severe) storm will be
possible given a belt of 40+ kt winds at mid-levels, however,
confidence is low in this occurring. Below normal highs are
anticipated today, largely 8 to 15 degrees below seasonal normal
values, given the ample cloud cover expected and cooler air that
will be in place. Decreasing clouds will then trend from mid
afternoon into the late evening from north to south. Precipitation
chances will be tapering off late this afternoon-early this evening
south of the Interstate 80 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

A fairly active pattern is in store for the extended forecast as a
series of shortwaves and frontal systems move across the region.
After a dry morning on Friday, shower and thunderstorm chances will
return and continue through mid-week. While it`s not anticipated
that each day will be a complete wash-out, showers could impact
afternoon/evening plans. While severe chances will remain low,
threats with some of the stronger storms will be hail and strong
winds. High pressure will then begin to build into the area on
Thursday pushing rain chances to the south and east.

Temperatures will remain in the upper 70s and low 80s through next
Tuesday before slowly rising into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week. Lows will remain in the upper 50s to low 60s through next
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Latest surface plot shows VFR conditions across western and north
central NEB. Elsewhere, fog exist across much of south central
NEB with visibilities as low as 1/4SM. Continue to think that some
patchy fog will spread west into the southeast-third of the local
forecast area (mainly and east of a line from Hayes Center to
North Platte to Broken Bow to Burwell). Otherwise, low-end VFR
ceilings (less than 7 kft) are anticipated to impact much of the
area outside northern NEB. Overall, skies will be partly sunny to
cloudy today. A decreasing cloud trend will take hold from mid
afternoon into the late evening from northern NEB to southwest
NEB. Chances for showers ramp up by mid morning and continue into
the early afternoon across the eastern NEB Panhandle and
southwest NEB. Otherwise, a few isolated embedded thunderstorms
are possible today as well. Dry conditions and mostly clear skies
are expected late this evening-rest of tonight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...ET



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