Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 230006 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
606 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

AT 19Z...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCATION WERE NEAR 40 WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS
MISSOURI...KANSAS AND COLORADO. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN
MANITOBA CANADA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE WESTERN DAKOTA...WESTERN PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA INTO NCTRL
COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

NO REAL FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS TONIGHT...AREAS OF THE CNTRL
AND EASTERN SANDHILLS TO SEE LOWS NEAR 22 TO 25. THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WITH LOWS 15 TO 20. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BRING A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SOON AFTER 12Z AND MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH BY AROUND 18Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL ALSO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRIDAY NEAR 8K TO 10K
FEET. WENT ABOVE THE MET GUIDANCE...CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE. CURRENT
FORECAST ABOUT 1 DEGREE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FCST...MAINLY DUE TO
CLOUD COVER EFFECTS. A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY. WHILE THERE COULD BE
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY...ONLY LOOKS
LIKE SOME VIRGA POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN PNHDL AND WESTERN SANDHILLS
AS SOUNDINGS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF BRINGS A SURFACE BOUNDARY
FURTHER WEST WITH LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY FLOW SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
BELOW 10 KFT WHERE THE GFS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED SO A COMPROMISE
FOLLOWED.

UNSEASONABLE WARMTH HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK.
HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE WEST COAST...AND A CLIPPER CROSSES THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO POSSIBLY PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR SOME VIRGA...OR A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES...OVER THE FAR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LOW POPS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS AND EAST. ON WEDNESDAY A FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE WEST
AND MOVES EAST THAT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS INTO THE AREA AND
THEN A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH AND INCREASES UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARDS FOR AREAS IN THE
SOUTHWEST TO SEE SOME DAYTIME READINGS IN THE 60S SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES TRENDED UP FOR NOW WITH MAINLY 50S IN THE
NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE NORMAL RANGE (TEENS) SATURDAY MORNING THEN MAINLY IN THE 20S
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH FRIDAY. CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL SEE INCREASING MID CLOUDS ON
FRIDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10
TO 20 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...POWER





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