Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 171122

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
522 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Issued at 314 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

At H5 large ridge over the central CONUS. Trough moving into west
Texas underneath the ridge. Several weaker waves moving through the
Pacific Northwest and very large mature closed low over the Canadian
Maritimes with resultant trough off the Atlantic Coast.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Good confidence in the near term forecast this morning. Looking at
time heights at both North Platte and Valentine...very dry airmass
over head and will hold over western Nebraska through Saturday.
Sounding at North Platte also quite dry. A weak cool front wind
shift line will move across western Nebraska today. The front will
come through dry. Gusty northwest winds will accompany the front.
Temperatures are expected in the 50s north and 60s south.

Tonight with clear skies and light north winds heat will radiate out
with temperatures falling into the upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

High pressure remains over the region through the weekend resulting
in dry weather and warm temperatures across north central Nebraska.
High temperatures both Saturday and Sunday rise into the low to
upper 60s  with overnight lows dropping into the upper 30s and low
40s on Saturday and Sunday nights.

The next chance for precipitation arrives on Sunday night into early
Monday morning as a developing low pressure system across the
northern US drags a cold front across Nebraska. Thunderstorm
potential is low, but not totally out of the question. Any
thunderstorm development is expected to be below severe criteria and
will be very isolated. Will continue to monitor the thunderstorm
potential over the next couple days.

High pressure returns and dry weather will build back into the
region on Monday night and will last through mid-week. Temperatures
continue to be warm through Wednesday as highs rise into the low to
upper 60s. Tuesday looks to be the warmest day with some locations
even reaching into the 70s across the eastern forecast area.

The next major weather system arrives on Thursday. Model consistency
regarding the track and intensity of the system has been low and
therefore, have not put too much focus on the system at this time.
However, at this forecast issuance, the probability of seeing some
sort of precipitation looks to be good. Will star the precipitation
off as rain on Thursday when temperatures will be well above
freezing. Precipitation will then transition over to a rain snow mix
and then all snow by Thursday night. Besides precipitation
type/amount, another concern with this system is the potential for
strong winds across the central Plains. Gusts up to 35 mph are
possible Thursday night as they system develops over the central
Plains and moves northeastward. Will continue to refine the forecast
as the system becomes sampled over the next several days.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 518 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

A cool frontal boundary will move across western Nebraska today.
Stronger winds aloft with light winds at the surface will create
low level wind shear through mid morning at both KLBF and KVTN.
Gusty northwest winds will mix down to the surface through the
morning and then slowly diminish through the afternoon into early




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