Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 221144

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
644 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Unsettled weather and heat will continue today and tonight. Main
forecast challenge will be heat advisories and warnings. Models have
been under performing with highs and not picking up on dew point
trends with this heat outbreak. Upper ridge holds with 850mb
temperatures in the 30c+range over western Nebraska again today.
Similar scenario with wave topping ridge and moving east across
forecast area providing lift to break the strong cap. Models
convective response begins over the panhandle late this afternoon
and then moves east into western Nebraska. Favored area will again
be over southwest Nebraska early this evening then transitioning
north with stronger wave moving across the dakotas. Highs today
in the upper 90s and low 100s again with dewpoints in the upper
60s to lower 70s. Heat indicies rising into the 100 to 105 range
and will leave highlights as is...advisory to the west and warning
to the east. Lows tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Current forecast trends are hinting at a bit warmer temperatures for
Saturday. Air temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s and heat
indexes right around 100. Will hold off on extending any heat
headlines until the next scheduled forecast update (4pm Friday) to
see if this warming trend will continue in the model solutions.
Besides the heat on Saturday, there is also a slight chance of some
isolated thunderstorms, mainly along and south of a Keya Paha county
to Hayes county line. Confidence in thunderstorm development is
quite low and therefore, have only put a brief mention in the
forecast at this time.

Relatively cooler temperatures finally arrive on Sunday with highs
rising up in the mid to upper 80s. The return of a zonal flow
pattern over the central US will result in both temperatures and
weather to become repetitive through next week. The cooler
temperatures will continue through much of next week as highs are
forecasted to be in the mid to upper 80s through Thursday. Overnight
lows also hold steady through Wednesday night in the low to mid 60s.
In addition to cooler temperatures continuing next week, the chance
for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours also
continue from Sunday through Thursday. At this time, an isolated
stronger storm is possible with these storms, however, the severe
potential is low.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

An area of IFR stratus and fog will continue to move to the west
over north central Nebraska between KONL and KANW this morning.
Mid and high clouds aoa 10kft agl are moving east out of the
Nebraska panhandle and should help to dissipate the stratus decks
westward progression. Have included br at KVTN through 13z. There
will be mid and high clouds over western Nebraska today with
isolated thunderstorms developing through the late afternoon over
the west and then moving east across western Nebraska through the
evening. Due to the isolated nature of the thunderstorms have left
out of the KLBF and KVTN tafs.


.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ004-

Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening
for NEZ005>010-024>029-036>038-059-071-094.



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