Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 242324 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
624 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS A CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. RIDGING EXTENDED NWD TO THE GREAT LAKES FROM HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE BOOT HEEL OF MISSOURI. UPSTREAM OF THE LOW
OVER MONTANA...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED OVER NRN CA...CENTRAL
IDAHO AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST. FURTHER UPSTREAM...ANOTHER
WAVE WAS NOTED OVER NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO SERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS. WEST OF THE
FRONT...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS HAD FALLEN OFF
TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH 3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 78
AT AINSWORTH TO 84 AT THEDFORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
PROGRESSION OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OUT
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...DECIDED TO
SLOW THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING...BUT
WITH THE GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS...WILL INCREASE
POPS INTO THE 40% RANGE THIS EVENING.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE SANDHILLS OVERNIGHT AND MAY
FURTHER SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS
UPGLIDE INCREASES ON THE 310-315 SFC/S.  WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE...AND THE PRESENCE OF A  LLJ OVERNIGHT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WERE RAMPED UP OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS
STORMS WOULD MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO THE
SANDHILLS EARLY MONDAY.

SHOWERS...POSSIBLY WITH A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER TO REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY AS THE OVERNIGHT STORMS CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THE REGION FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RRQ OF A 80-90 ULJ
WITH CONTINUED UPGLIDE.  DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVING SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH LOWER 70S ANTICIPATED FOR THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS...LOW 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I80...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IN THE MID RANGE CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN. A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL TRACK FROM NORTHERN NEVADA...INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS EAST...EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BEGINNING
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL
APPROACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE
STALLED OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KS. LOW LEVEL
EASTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FA LATE
MONDAY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ACROSS NERN COLORADO MONDAY
EVENING...TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET
POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LIKELY POPS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ZONES MONDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST TEMPORARILY ON TUESDAY BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES...HOWEVER OVERCAST SKIES AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS
WILL MAKE FOR UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGHS IN THE 70S. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE A GREATER THREAT AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO
THE 850 FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...A
DECENT MID LEVEL TAP OF MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE MARIE
WILL FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SWRN CONUS. BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATIVE OF DEEP LIFT ACROSS A LARGE SWATH
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA PER CROSS SECTIONS. ONGOING
FCST HAD LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN INTO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT EAST OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...EMERGING ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS SLOWLY
EAST. WITH RESPECT TO THE TROUGH LIFTING EAST OF THE AREA...THE GFS
AND ECMWF SOLNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING LIFTING
THIS FEATURE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS
EXPECTED. ON SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR PCPN AS
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FOR
NOW...HAVE LEFT SUNDAY DRY AS THE TROUGH IS FORECASTED FARTHER NORTH INTO
CANADA PER THE GFS SOLN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS NRN COLORADO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST AND PRODUCE SCATTRED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS LATE THIS
EVENING...OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS
IS FOR VFR/LOCAL MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY AS THIS RAIN MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC






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