Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 160606

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
106 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Potent low pressure system across the Pacific NW today with quasi-
zonal to slight SW flow across the high plains. Pacific moisture
getting drawn into NW low, however still seeing some clouds
streaming across the Rockies. Not dense but expect the feed of high
clouds to continue into tomorrow. Unseasonably warm conditions
continue as the low lifts into Canada with southwest flow continuing
across the region. Overnight lows in the mid 40s to around 50 with
tomorrow highs in the upper 70s across north central Nebraska with
lower 80s across the west.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Sunday night through Tuesday...the GFS continues to advertise a
strong or high wind event Monday afternoon/evening. The combination
of 65-70kt winds at 700mb...10 mb pressure rises...cold air
advection and the PV1.5 pressure surface lowering to 600mb would
appear to be sufficient to transfer momentum to the sfc Monday
evening. Winds at 500mb increase to 80-100kt in all models.

Boundary layer winds in the GFS increase to 45-50kt across Wrn and
Ncntl Neb. Both the MAV and MET guidance are responding with 35 mph
west winds across the Panhandle 21z Monday. The forecast uses a
blend of these winds plus bias correction which lowers speeds about
5 mph. Gusts are a blend of MOSGUIDE AND NAMDNG5...around 40 mph.
Later forecasts may raise or lower the forecast wind speeds. Model
forecast skill with these types of events is generally poor and
often times handled best in the 0-12hr time frame. Thus Monday could
be an interesting day...especially given the powerful storm underway
this afternoon off the Pacific Northwest coast and the upper level
energy from that event traversing the Cntl U.S. early next week.

There is little change in the temperature forecasts Monday and
Tuesday. Blended model and guidance data plus bias correction
suggests highs in the 70s to lower 80s Monday which cool to the 60s
Tuesday. H850mb temperatures spike around 20C Sunday and then slowly
cool into the teens Monday. The cooling is modest Tuesday as h850mb
temperatures cool to around 10 C. The forecast is dry through

Tuesday night through Saturday...the GFS has backed off on the
expanse of rainfll Wednesday. The GEF continues to show widespread
light rain or showers developing. The ECM looks similar to the
GEF...wetter than the GFS. A post frontal upper level disturbance
should move through the Cntl Plains Wednesday and exit early
Thursday morning. Temperatures aloft...800mb and above might cool
sufficiently for a changeover to snow Wednesday night but by then
the best forcing is south across KS. Little or no accumulation is
expected unless the colder air can move in sooner...Wednesday aftn.

The rest of the forecast Thursday through Saturday is cool and dry
with generally seasonable temperatures. An expansive area of sfc
high pressure will build through the Rockies and move east into the
upper midwest. A strong upper level ridge will build across the
Desert southwest as a deep upper level trof forms east of the
Missouri basin.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

High clouds will increase from the west overnight. Winds will
stay up at KVTN through the night and increase through the day on
Sunday north of a line from KOGA to KONL at 10 to 20 KTS with
higher gusts. Valley fog expected to develop over southwest
Nebraska around sunrise. Have included a tempo group with MVFR
visibilities at KLBF.


Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

A couple of critical to near critical days expected. For Sunday,
temps in the lower 80s across the western zones will combine with
low dew pts to produce low RH values. Strongest winds across the
eastern panhandle and the northern sandhills. Inherited fire weather
watch for zone 204 and will upgrade to a red flag warning and
include zone 208. Zone 208 will be mainly west part of the zone,
Cherry county.

Monday could be very problematic. RH falls to 15 to 25 percent in
the afternoon as winds across Wrn Nebraska increase to around 30
mph with gusts to 40 mph...possibly higher. These conditions
during the afternoon could support rapid fire growth which could
be impossible to control if the strong or high winds develop as
indicated by the GFS model. No fire watch will be issued with this
forecast...there are still substantial differences in model
forecast wind speeds. Check later forecasts.


Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-208.



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