Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 041724
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1124 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 241 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

A fog bank appears to be hung up across ern Lincoln County and
Custer County. A pacific cold front is sweeping through swrn Neb at
08z and this should end the fog before 12z.

The forecast today uses a blend of the HRRR models, RAP and GFS for
POPs, temperatures and snowfall. The rapid refresh models (HRRRs and
RAP) are very aggressive sweeping the snow underway across WY this
morning through most of wrn and ncntl Neb today. The NAM nest model
solution is close to these models also. Given the temperature
forecast for falling temperatures, strong winds and snow, It looks
like the road surfaces in Holt, Brown and Rock counties will fall
below the freezing mark this afternoon with around an inch of snow.
These counties have been added to the Winter Weather advisory in
place for parts of wrn and ncntl Neb.

The model blend indicates 1 to 4 inches with the 4 inches across
Sheridan Co. Note that several models show about 1/2 inch of QPF
across that area and it is obvious a very strong Black Hills
convergence will be operating across Nwrn Sheridan Co. today. For
consistency, the forecast limits the snowfall in that area to 3
inches.

The wind and wind gust forecast is a blend of the models listed
above and CONSMOS. The RAP indicates 500m AGL winds of 30 to 35 kts
which supports the forecast for surface winds of 30 to 35 mph. A
blend of the models indicated gusts of 45 to 50 kts which was
limited at 46 kt for gusts to 55 mph in many areas. The very
progressive storm motion is expected to preclude high wind criteria
(gusts to 58 mph) but it will be close and a few gusts to 58 mph
might occur.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 241 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

Northwest flow aloft will be locked in for the foreseeable future.
At the surface, winds will be from the northwest for at least the
next week, with gusty conditions at times as several weak cold
front will cross the area. This pattern is due to a large trough
that will dig southeast across central and eastern Canada and into
the eastern portions of the United States.

The coldest air, arctic in nature, will remain mostly northeast of
our area during the next week. Our region will mostly be
influenced by a Pacific airmass, as it moves north across the Gulf
of Alaska then turns east and spills southeast along the lee of
the Rocky mountains. This will keep temperatures mild, but not
nearly as warm as it has been the last few weeks. Highs will be
near average for this time of year, in the 30s and 40s. It will
feel colder though as persistent northwest winds add a bite to the
air.

Significant precipitation is not expected, however scattered snow
showers cannot be ruled out, as bouts of mid level frontogenesis
are expected due to colder arctic air across the Great Lakes
region and warmer Pacific air to the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

Wind is the primary aviation weather concern over the next 24
hours as northwest winds gust near 40 kts this afternoon and
early evening. The very strong gusts wane overnight before
strengthening again Tuesday mid-morning, approaching 30 kts by
05/18z. Secondly, an area of snow will continue pushing east
across the Sandhills this afternoon. Accumulations will be rather
light, generally one to two inches from GRN to VTN to ONL and
areas north. However, the wind will create blowing snow and reduce
visby to under 1SM.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening
for NEZ004>010-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Snively



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