Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 232008

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
308 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

The cold front that moved through last night has stalled southeast
of the forecast area. This boundary is expected to shift back to the
north this evening as a short wave moves in from the west. These two
features should encourage some shower and thunderstorm activity
overnight but most of the activity will remain along and south of
the interstate.

Tuesday looks a lot more interesting as a low pressure system
deepens over eastern Colorado during the day and lifts northeast
into the evening. Much of the day will be spent priming the
atmosphere for severe thunderstorms later in the afternoon and early
evening. Southeast flow ahead of the low will draw in rich moisture,
with dew points in the 50s and 60s across the area. Daytime highs in
the upper 70s and 80s will lead to steep low level lapse rates that
will be supported by plenty of instability at the mid levels...with
a nice thick pocket of CAPE in the hail growth zone. Bulk shear will
also be sufficient to support large hail with enough in the low
levels to consider the threat for a tornado or two. Initiation
should be west of the forecast area but storms will eventually
transition into this favorable environment with a focus for
convection expected along the warm front as it lifts north into

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Active weather tuesday night. A warm front will be dradped near
the Nebr/Kansas border early Tuesday evening. With 0-6km shear of
35-40kts, and mucapes of 2000-3500 j/kg, strong to severe storms
are possible. The potential for very large hail, especially south
of a line from Alliance to Ainsworth. Heavy rainfall will also be
possible as an mcs looks favorable to develop and move east
overnight. areas in central and northeast Cherry county, and
western Keya Paha county will be susceptible to runoff and
possible flash flooding. This is due to very heavy rainfall
amounts of 2 to 6 inches which occurred Sunday evening.

Wednesday through Monday will remain active as shortwave
disturbances continue to be ejected northeast across the region.
meanwhile, a longwave trough will persist across the west coast,
as energy dives southeast from the Gulf of Alaska.

High temperatures Wednesday in the upper 70s and lower 80s slowly
drop into the lower 70s by Friday before rebounding back into the
upper 70s by the weekend and next Monday. Low temperatures remain
fairly steady in the low to mid 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Clearing is taking place across most of the forecast area in the
wake of a few morning showers with mostly clear skies expected to
stick around for much of the day. However, The southern portion of
the frontal boundary that pushed across the area yesterday will
eventually lift back to the north in the evening with a chance for
thunderstorms along the boundary. The development of these showers
and storms into southwest Nebraska should be late in the evening
and will be broad brushed for the KLBF terminal after 05z Tuesday
with a VCTS...which is a couple of hours later than the 12z TAF
brought them in. However, development is still expected around 00z
and it should begin well to the south and west of KLBF and will
eventually work toward the terminal. KLBF may end up on the
northern fringe of the activity through 13z with thunderstorms
redevloping tomorrow, mainly after 00z. Storms tomorrow will be
more numerous and some could be severe.


Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Flood Warnings continue for the North Platte River and the Platte
River at Brady. Little change in the river levels is expected for
much of the week as reservoir releases hold steady. A minor wave is
causing the South Platte River gages to see a little additional
rises over the next couple of days, however all sites remain below
flood stage, but at action stage on the South Platte River. Multiple
days of convection could eventually add up if the rain falls into
the wrong basins, so far, most of the heavy rain has fallen well
outside of the Platte basin.


.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



LONG TERM...Roberg
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