Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 051735
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1135 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 543 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

Latest satellite and surface plot shows mid level clouds
moving into portions of north central NEB, and also into the
southeast Panhandle to southwest NEB. Of which, starting to see
clouds lower upstream in SD. However, urries have only been
reported at Pierre, SD over the last three hours.

A mid-level disturbance is currently tracking southeastward through
the Dakotas towards IA this morning. Current thinking is will
continue to see expanding cloud cover across northern NEB that
will persist today. Additionally, enough moisture for mention of
flurries this morning/early today also. Elsewhere, cloud cover
will be less with mostly sunny skies expected today. Meanwhile,
850 hPa temperatures aloft increase some this afternoon from the
southwest to northeast across the forecast area. Of which, near 0C
overhead at LBF this afternoon so closer to seasonable normal
values per SPC Sounding climo compared to previous day. Highs are
largely expected to read near normal across much of the forecast
area, though cloud cover will cause readings to be slightly below
normal in northern NEB.

Otherwise, a breezy day is anticipated with winds out of the west
northwest. Current thinking is for the highest gusts to occur
across the eastern Panhandle and areas of the western Sandhills
with gusts up to 35-40 mph. Decent potential for low-level winds
aloft to mix down via momentum transfer per RAP and GFS BUFKIT
soundings. Soundings show mean mixed-layer winds exceeding 30 kts.
While winds lessen tonight, light breezes are expected to
continue with a decent surface pressure gradient in place. Another
embedded shortwave trough rotates down from the Northern High
Plains to NEB tonight. Continued slight chances for snow or
urries across parts of northern NEB tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 543 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

A blocking pattern is in place aloft, with a persistent cold upper trough
across the eastern U.S., and a large upper ridge across the west.
Our area is in between with north to northwest ow aloft. This
pattern will change very little over the next week, and possibly
beyond according to the extended GFS.

A Pacific airmass will dominate across our region the next several days, as
mild Pacific air moves north across the Gulf of Alaska then turns
east and spills southeast along the lee of the Rocky mountains on
the eastern side of the upper ridge. Wednesday and Thursday, a
bit of arctic air will mix in as a couple of weak cold fronts drop
south. These two days will see highs near or slightly below
normal, but by the end of the week and the weekend, highs will be
back to above normal in the 40s and 50s.

As far as precipitation, this is typically a dry pattern for the
central plains. It won`t be completely dry however, as bouts of
mid level frontogenesis will set up in a north to south fashion
between the colder air to the east and warmer air to the west.
This will lead to a few rain or snow showers, mainly Wednesday and
Thursday. Then as the warmer Pacific air takes hold late this week
and weekend, mainly dry conditions are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

The latest guidance suggests the breezy conditions will continue
through the forecast period. The winds are a result of a tight
surface pressure gradient and mixing from aloft. The speeds are
expected to come down slightly however overnight. There will be
lowering ceilings as well, especially across northern Nebraska as
a weak disturbance passes through northwest flow. But any
precipitation that would impact either the KVTN or KLBF terminals
looks to hold off until after 18z Wednesday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Jacobs



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