Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 250832
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
332 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Another cool day with mainly dry conditions expected with the best
chances for precipitation outside the forecast area (to our west and
southeast). Overall, the latest analysis and model guidance continue
to support spirit of the going forecast today and tonight. A mid-
level trough is positioned across the Northern Plains at the start
of the period while a broad 500 hPa high remains over the southeast
CONUS, Tennessee Valley, and Lower Mississippi Valley. The upper
trough will move into the Upper Great Lakes today with weak height
rises occurring over western and north central NE under modest
westerly 500 hPa flow, around 25-30 kts. At lower-levels, low-level
isentropic lift will be occurring over southeast WY and portions of
the NE Panhandle today. Surface high pressure will move into and
stretch across the eastern Northern and Central Plains to lower
Missouri Valley. Best moisture will be to the south and east of the
forecast area, with precipitable water around 0.75 in western NE
and 850 dew points around 6-8 C across western and north central NE
with moderate dew point depressions at lower-levels. While
conditions are expected to be predominantly dry, slight chance PoPs
were placed in portions of our far west forecast area given location
of zone of thermal advection and anticipated precipitation motion.
Not much in terms of confidence at this time given amount of
moisture available and the location of best uplift and forcing.
Otherwise, below-normal high temperatures are expected with a cool
air mass in place, generally 5-10 degrees below normal, with cooler
temperatures across the northwest-third of the forecast area.

Conditions are expected to be dry tonight. A mid-level trough will
move into the northern Rockies and norther Plains during the tonight
period with a short wave trough expected to then track into the area
early morning Friday. At this time, best large scale ascent will be
occurring more so near the end and after the Tonight period. Have
increased chances for precipitation in the far western and far
southern portions of the forecast area after midnight, however,
think the best chances will occur after 12 UTC.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

An active end to the week is possible across central Nebraska. An
upper-level trough will move across the northern Plains on Friday
bringing a return to rain and thunderstorms to the area. Rain will
move southward across the forecast area, starting first across the
Nebraska/South Dakota border on Friday morning and slowly moving
southward throughout the day. Storms are expected to reach the
Imperial to North Platte to O`Neill line by late afternoon/early
evening. While the severe threat is low, an isolated strong to
severe storm cannot be ruled out especially in the afternoon hours
as instability across the region peaks. Main threat will be small
hail, gusty winds, and brief heavy rainfall.

Lingering rain showers/thunderstorms are possible through Saturday
afternoon as the trough slowly moves eastward. High pressure returns
for Saturday night and lasts through the beginning of next week.
This high will keep any shower/thunderstorm activity to our south
resulting in dry and calm conditions to prevail across western
Nebraska.

Temperatures remain on the cooler side for Friday with highs only in
the low to mid-70s. Temperatures begin to rise once again for the
weekend and into next week. Temperatures rise into the low 80s on
Saturday and then hold steady in the mid to upper 80s for Sunday
through Wednesday. Lows steadily rise from the low to mid 50s on
Friday night eventually reaching the upper 50s to low 60s by Tuesday
night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Over the next 24 hours abundant high cloudiness will stream into
western and north central Nebraska. Ceilings ranging from 10000 to
25000 FT AGL are expected over the next 24 hours. Coverage will
be mainly scattered at the KLBF terminal and broken at the KVTN
terminal.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Buttler



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