Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 071140 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
540 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WITH AN ASSOCIATED
STRONG 995MB SURFACE LOW. CUTOFF LOW OVER ALABAMA. HIGH PRESSURE AT
H5 OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH STRONG RIDGE INTO ALASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE HIGH WINDS. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHER GFS SOLUTION. WESTERN NEBRASKA IS
IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WITH STRONG 250MB JET 130+ AND 850MB WINDS
50KTS TO 60KTS OVER HEAD ALL DAY. LAPSE RATES INDICATING WINDS ALOFT
WILL MIX DOWN WITH STRONG CAA AND FALLING 850MB TEMPERATURES. HAVE
EXPANDED HIGH WIND WARNING SOUTH AND INCLUDED ALL OF THE EASTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND KEITH COUNTY AREAS PRONE TO BLOW. STRONG
UPPER SUPPORT ALL DAY. WILL CONTINUE SPS FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
HIGHS TODAY AROUND 35F. HAVE INCLUDED A SCHC RAIN SNOW MIX LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CHANGED TO SNOW AFTER 00Z AND
RAN THROUGH MIDNIGHT MAINLY HOLT BOYD AND WHEELER COUNTIES WITH A
DUSTING. WITH THE STRONG WINDS TODAY OVER ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA
COULD BE CONCERNS WITH SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
OBSERVATIONS AND DOR CAMERAS TODAY TO SEE THE EFFECT OF THE WINDS.
HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BUT MAY
HAVE TO EXPAND. WINDS WILL STAY AT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THOUGH THE EARLY EVENING. HAVE CUT THE WARNING BACK
TO 00Z. LOWS IN THE TEENS WEST AND 20S NORTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MID RANGE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WIND
AND PRECIPITATION. STRONG WINDS FROM SUNDAYS SYSTEM CONTINUES
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS GENERALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
850HPA WINDS AROUND 40 KTS IN THE PANHANDLE TO 50 KTS NORTH CENTRAL.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP AS SUNDAY WITH SFC TO 850 HPA
AROUND 6C/KM PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT
MIXING. ALSO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
NOT EXPECTING A HIGH WIND EVENT. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PASS THROUGH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE TUESDAY AS A 250HPA JET STREAK APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. INTRODUCED -RASN TUE AFTERNOON AND -SN TUE NIGHT/WED
MORNING FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRONG 500-700 HPA
FRONTOGENSIS AND A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA. GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT AS WELL...WITH THE BEST WINDOW GENERALLY
00Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY. SATURATION AND OMEGA LIE WELL BELOW THE DGZ SO
ONLY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED. WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S...NEAR CLIMO TO SLIGHTLY LOWER SLR WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION TO A
DUSTING AT MOST.

LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY...WESTERN NEBRASKA IS PLACED IN
AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ECE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH WAA
MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S WHEREAS THE MEX GUIDANCE DELAYS IT
UNTIL THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES USE A GENERAL BLEND THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON SNOW PACK EFFECT. WEDNESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ONE OF THE
MILDEST DAYS WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND FAIR SKIES. THE ECM BRINGS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE PROFILES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WILL CAUSE STRONG
WINDS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SPREAD SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. WINDS AT 850MB WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 50 TO
60KTS. AT THE SURFACE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 50 OR 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KVTN.
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUST TO 45 OR 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED AT KLBF. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE VFR THROUGH MONDAY. SOME
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING FROM KANW TO KONL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ004>010-022>029-035-056-057-
094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...POWER


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