Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 180439
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1139 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THIS ALONG WITH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IS GENERATING SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF SB CAPE IS ROUGHLY LOCATED ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR...AND A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS KEITH AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. COULD BE SOME PEA SIZED
HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS THE SHOWERS PASS. OTHERWISE SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING SOME.
A BIT MORE SUN EXPECTED MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IN THE MID AND EXTENDED PERIODS.

COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NRN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WILL BE IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS AND SHOULD ALSO
HAVE THE LEAST CLOUD COVER. LOWS ON THOSE AREAS FORECAST TO FALL
INTO THE MID 30S. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION FOR PATCHY FROST ACROSS
NERN PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL.

MEANWHILE A NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NEVADA
BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND
FRONT RANGE. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL INHIBIT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS FAR SWRN NEBR...MODELS SUGGEST PRECIP COULD REACH THERE
LATE. THIS UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL LIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NRN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. QPF COULD BE SIGNIFICANT
WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE POSSIBLE. SREF PLUMES INDICATE MEAD QPF
OF 0.80 INCH AT LBF AND TIF AND AROUND AND INCH AT OGA AND IML.
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INDIATED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
POPS RAISED TO 80 PERCENT ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF FA TUES AFTN
THEN FOR CNTRL NEBR ANDNWRN ZONES TUESDAY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN OR SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN SHERIDAN
AND NWRN CHERRY COUNTY. SNOW IS QUITE UNUSUAL BY MID MAY. HOWEVER
CLOSED LOW AND PRESENCE OF COLD AIR DRAWN IN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
A POSSIBLE MIX. AS SYSTEM LIFTS EAST AND NORTHEAST...SHOWERS
CHANCES TO DIMINISH OR END WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL ARRIVE INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
THURSDAY AND BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT. POPS TO REMAIN AROUND 50 PERCENT
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE. PWAT VALUES INCREASE FROM 0.75 INCH TO 1.25 INCH. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL DRAW SOME WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
CREATE HIGHER INSTABILITY AND HAVE INCLUDED MORE TSTM WORDING.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL FROM
AROUND 50 DEGREES MANY LOCATIONS. THIS WILL BE FROM 15 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS THEREAFTER WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY/FRIDAY...TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...ABUNDANT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...IMPACTING THE KLBF TERMINAL.
CIGS WILL RANGE FROM 8000 TO 10000 FT AGL TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING.
FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...BROKEN CIGS AROUND 2500 FT AGL ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING BACK INTO
NORTHERN NEBRASKA MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER HAS CRESTED AT ROSCOE...AND WILL SLOWLY FALL
BUT REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT NORTH PLATTE
THE RIVER IS CRESTING NOW. THE RIVER SHOULD HOLD STEADY FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. IT WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY...AND THEN
BELOW 12 FEET WEDNESDAY. AT BRADY...THE PLATTE RIVER WILL CREST
TOMORROW MORNING THEN SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEK. IT WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK HOWEVER. RAINFALL OF
NEAR A HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
NOT BE A HEAVY RAIN...AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB
HYDROLOGY...TAYLOR






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