Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 170426

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1126 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

H5 analysis this morning had high pressure over northern
Mexico with a closed low over western Ontario. A zonal pattern was
present over the western half of the CONUS this morning. a trough of
low pressure was present from the middle Ohio valley south into the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Several embedded shortwaves were noted
across the upper midwest and northern plains this morning. Strong
shortwaves were noted over the Ozarks and across the Pacific
northwest. Across the central plains this afternoon, a nice
shortwave has shown up on the KLNX nexrad around Ainsworth. At the
surface: A weak area of low pressure was located over far
northeastern portions of the forecast area with a frontal boundary
extending to the south southwest into south central Nebraska. Winds
west of this feature were westerly and much drier air was in place
with dew points in the upper 30s to lower 40s. East of the boundary,
dew points were in the 50s, with 60s noted in south central and
eastern Nebraska. Under partly cloudy skies this afternoon 2 PM CDT
temperatures ranged from 87 at Ainsworth to 97 at Imperial.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Tonight and Saturday: Will evaluate the convective
situation near forecast issuance for inclusion of thunderstorms in
this evenings forecast. Based on the current dew point picture and
location of the shortwave east of Ainsworth. Thunderstorm chances
will be confined to the far eastern cwa late this afternoon. ATTM
thinking here is to keep things dry in the east after 6 PM this
evening. Overnight, the shortwave currently over the Pacific
Northwest, will track across the northern Rockies this evening
merging with a shortwave rotating around the upper level low in
Ontario toward daybreak Saturday. This will force a cold front
through the forecast area Saturday morning. Behind the front, mid
level lift will spread showers and thunderstorms across South Dakota
late tonight into Saturday morning. The bulk of this should stay
across the border, however, cannot rule out a stray storm in the far
north and have expanded coverage of pops from the previous forecast
with pops confined to the highway 20 corridor and north. By
afternoon, the threat for showers and thunderstorms will shift south
into the southern half of the forecast area. Again with the forecast
area well north of the cold front by that time, will limit pops to
slight chances and the bulk of lift is confined to the mid levels of
the atmosphere. Temperatures will be much cooler Saturday with highs
in the lower 70s in the north and lower 80s in the south.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Mid range (Saturday night through Sunday night): The
threat for precipitation will linger across southwestern Nebraska
through mid evening Saturday before shifting south into Kansas. The
mid range model solutions push the front well south of the forecast
area Saturday night into northern Texas where it stalls out Sunday
into Sunday night. Cool and dry conditions are expected Sunday with
highs in the 70s. Lows Saturday night will be in the mid 40s to mid
50s with 50s expected for Sunday night.

Monday through Friday: The front will remain anchored across the
southern plains through Monday night before tracking north on
Tuesday. Dry conditions will persist through Tuesday night with the
next chance for precipitation being late Wednesday into Wednesday
night. Aloft: After northwesterly flow through Tuesday, the pattern
will become more zonal as a more active northern stream begins to
suppress the high over the desert southwest. With moisture return,
precipitation chances will begin to increase by midweek next week as
the pattern aloft becomes more active. Highs Tuesday through
Thursday will be in the 90s with 80s on Monday and Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Latest satellite imagery and surface plot shows mid and high-
level clouds streaming across northern NEB and across the southern
Panhandle into far southwest NEB. Ceilings are high-end VFR
(greater than 10 kft). Regional radar display shows light
isolated-scattered showers across northeast/east central WY to
southwest SD. Radar returns have increased in coverage over the
last three hours in this area with most locations reporting a
trace of precip.

Rest of tonight, clouds are expected to increase in coverage
across western NEB. Chances for showers will increase across the
SD-NEB border into the northern Sandhills through the small
hours. Winds will pickup tomorrow and be breezy with peak gusts
generally 25-30 MPH in the afternoon. Slight chances-chances for
showers and thunderstorms then spread southward across the
southern Sandhills on south tomorrow.




SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
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