Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 281115
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
615 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ON THE 07Z MSL PLOT...TEMPERATURE...PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS
SHOWED THE FRONT HAD MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THE TEMPERATURE AND WIND FIELDS COULD BE A LITTLE DECEIVING DUE
TO THE RAIN-COOLED AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT
WENT THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...LOW PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WAVE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE
ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXTENDING TO A DEVELOPING
VORTEX OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. THE UPPER WIND FROM AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATED A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST ALBERTA TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BY LATE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT GOING THROUGH NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR ZERO
PROBABILITY. THE STRENGTH OF THE CANADIAN HIGH THAT MOVES IN WILL
BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE
AREA AS WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND THE SKY CLEARS. THAT TRANSLATES TO
LOWS TONIGHT POSSIBLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND LOWER 40S IN THE PANHANDLE AND 50 TO 55 IN
MOST OF THE AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...LOWER TEMPERATURES
(POSSIBLY 45 TO 50) ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND
OTHER LOW AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...WEDNESDAY WILL WARM NICELY
BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WITH ZONAL TO SLIGHT NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SFC
COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH...STALLING ACROSS KS/OK. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING DEW POINTS ON THE LOW SIDE...FOR
JULY...40S TO AROUND 50. RESULTING IN A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY.

WED NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SE OF THE CWA AND
RETURN SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SFC. THIS
WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE TO BL MOISTURE AND KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING AS FAR AS TONIGHT. LOOKING AT MOST AREAS IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60...HOWEVER IF MOISTURE IS SLOWER THAN MODELS EXPECT
TEMPS MAY RIVAL THOSE OF TONIGHT.

THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE THE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. MEANWHILE SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND A RETURN
OF MORE MOISTURE. FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO RIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A FEW CHANCES HERE AND THERE FOR THEM TO
PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH. THUS WILL HAVE A FEW PERIODS WITH LOW
POPS...DURING THE FAVORED AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME.

FOR THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE RIDGE TO THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT FOR A SLIGHT EXPANSION WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARMUP FOR THE AREA. MORE AREAS LIKELY TO
REACH ABOVE 90. STILL SEEING SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...THUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION OF ON AND OFF POPS. NOT
GOING TO BE A WASH OF A WEEKEND...BUT WITH EACH PASSING WAVE WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY WITH WIND 320-360 INCREASINS TO
12-14G18-24KT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE THE FORECAST IS NOT AT/BELOW RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS COULD BE CLOSE...ESPECIALLY AT NORTH PLATTE AND
IMPERIAL WHERE THE RECORDS ARE WARMER. RECORD LOWS FOR THE
CLIMATE SITES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...JULY 29...ARE...
NORTH PLATTE...49...1971/1892.
VALENTINE...42...1971.
BROKEN BOW...45...1994.
IMPERIAL...50...1923/1906/1900.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER
CLIMATE...MASEK


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