Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 160830
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
IS BRINGING LOW 50S DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD ACROSS ERN CO AND UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 IN THE NEBR PNHDL. NORTHERN EXTENT OF STRATUS IS NEAR
SAINT FRANCIS KS. SOME BROKEN MID CLOUDINESS NEAR 15K FEET FROM ERN
WY INTO WRN/SWRN NEBR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEP UPPER
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY CONTRASTED BY AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
INFLUENCING WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION TODAY AND BEYOND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WRN NEBR. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS TO PEAK IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
WARMER AIR WILL ALSO BE TRANSPORTED INTO WRN NEBR...WITH THE WARMEST
H85 TEMPS OF 22C IN FAR SWRN NEBR. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
FAR SWRN ZONES AND THE ERN PNHDL WITH UPPER 70S MUCH OF WRN
SANDHILLS. FURTHER EAST...AT ONL AND BUB...COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S.

THE INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TONIGHT TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS THE OGA...IML...LBF AREAS. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME MID LEVELS CLOUDINESS INCREASING TOWARD 12Z INTO WRN
NEBR. LOWS FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL PROGGED BY THE MID-RANGE
SOLUTIONS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. UNDER A WAA
REGIME...INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THE
LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST GRADIENT OF NEGATIVE LI/S /-3 TO -6C/
STRETCHING FROM FRONTIER COUNTY WELL INTO THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS. A
STRONG STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE BUFR
SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE THREAT AREA INDICATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITH PLENTIFUL SHEAR TO PROMOTE UPDRAFT ROTATION. THE
CONTRIBUTION OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH LAYER IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MILD CONCERN
OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF ELEVATED STORMS COVERED WELL...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
IMPLEMENTED. TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL UNDERGO
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS WARMER AIR SURGES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL ARE LIKELY
ACROSS OUR WEST BOTH DAYS...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S
ACROSS OUR EAST AS MORNING STRATUS AND A GREATER EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND IS EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD
80S ARE ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY WITH THE WARMEST READINGS ACROSS
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...A COLD FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A UPPER 70 READING OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE IF THE FRONT ARRIVES EARLY. PERIODIC STRATUS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL WORK WITH INCREASING THERMAL ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTH TO WARM LOWS EACH NIGHT CWA WIDE...SUCH THAT LOWS
IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE 50S BY
WORK WEEKS END.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE OUTER
PERIODS IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.  A
NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPRESS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST
OF THE CWA...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TO
PASS THROUGH THE REGION.  THE LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY.  SOMEWHAT
INTERESTING IS THE OFF AND ON AGAIN INTERACTION OF THIS FRONT WITH
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE.  THE GFS REMAINS FIXED ON THIS
INTERACTION MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...THE ECMWF HAS ONCE
AGAIN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST. WILL NEED TO WATCH.  WITH
POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED...HIGHS AND LOWS WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT...BUT
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS
WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE STRATUS IN
KANSAS HAS SHOWN VERY LITTLE SIGN OF ADVANCING NORTHWARD...AND
CEILINGS HAVE YET TO DROP BELOW 3000 FEET OR MVFR CONDITIONS. HAVE
UNWOUND THE STRATUS/LOW CLOUD IMPACT AT KLBF AND HAVE COMPLETELY
REMOVED AT KVTN. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT NOW APPEARS THAT
THOSE CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE KLBF
TERMINAL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...TAYLOR







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