Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 132025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
325 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

An upper trough and associated cold front will cross the region
tonight into Saturday. The main story for our area will be the
winds behind the cold front Saturday afternoon and potential fog
ahead of the front late tonight into Saturday morning.

Low level moisture will increase tonight as the low level flow
increases from the southeast ahead of the approaching cold front.
Dew points will rise into the mid 40s across southwest into
central Nebraska by late tonight, and as temperatures fall into
the mid 40s expect at least patchy fog to develop. The moisture is
fairly deep up through 5000 FT with a drier layer above. With the
deeper boundary layer moisture expect low stratus clouds to
develop quickly after midnight, and with some weak lift and the
drier layer aloft, would not be surprised to see a bit of patchy
drizzle. Will not mention the drizzle in the forecast as we
already have a slight to chance pop going for rain showers. Did
add a bit of thunder to the forecast late tonight into Saturday
morning, as the models indicate some instability in the mid
levels. Overall the best jet dynamics and associated
precipitation will remain removed from our forecast area, so will
carry no more than a 40 pop at any one location.

Next, for the winds, feel the GFS may be a bit overdone with the
mixing and therefore too high with the speeds Saturday afternoon.
Compromised between the GFS and NAM and have speeds highest across
southwest Nebraska where sustained northwest winds of 30 mph and
gusts over 40 mph are expected. Elsewhere speeds will be a bit
less but all areas will be windy by late Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Upper trough will be over western Nebraska Saturday afternoon with
showers moving to the east ending over the north central as the
trough moves to the east. Cooler Sunday morning with lows bottoming
out in the mid 20s west to the mid 30s east. Clear skies Sunday with
northwest flow decreasing through the day. Warmer air aloft and full
insolation will allow temperatures to rise into the 60s.

Ridge builds into the northern plains through the week with
dewpoints in the 20s and 30s, dry airmass, the first part of the
week increasing into the 30s and 40s through the end of the week.
Gulf doesn`t start to open till the end of the forecast period as
upper trough moves across the western CONUS. Dry through the week
with temperatures above normal for the season.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

VFR conditions will give way to MVFR and IFR late tonight. Low
clouds and fog are expected to develop ahead of a cold front that
will cross the area Saturday morning. The low ceilings will spread
northward, impacting North Platte and southwest/central Nebraska
by around 09Z Saturday morning, and then into Valentine and north
central Nebraska by around 12Z. By late Saturday morning, winds
will switch to the west as a cold front moves through. This will
help break up the low ceilings. Winds will become very gusty
Saturday afternoon, with local gusts over 40 mph across southwest
Nebraska and 30 mph elsewhere.




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