Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KLBF 170442
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1142 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS TODAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER NORTH
DAKOTA. HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS 48 ARE MOST PRONOUNCED
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH 90M RISES NOTED AT BOTH KOTX
AND KBOI. THIS IS WHERE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING IS BECOMING MORE
EVIDENT IN THE MID- LEVEL FIELDS. A STEADY BAND OF STRATUS
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF THE HIGH CLOUDINESS...AND FOR THAT MATTER ON-GOING LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED PLEASANTLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO SUFFICIENT MIXING OF ANOMALOUSLY
WARM AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES AS OF 19Z ARE REACHING INTO THE MID
60S AND LOWER 70S WITH THE WARMEST READINGS ACROSS SW NEBRASKA.
THE MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR STRONG MOMENTUM XFER TO THE SURFACE AS
WELL...GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...ELSEWHERE GUSTS TO 30 MPH HAVE
BEEN NOTED.

THE DAKOTA SURFACE AND ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.  COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.  THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ADVERTISING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AT H85 WITH READINGS BY 12Z FRIDAY SOME 15C OR COOLER COMPARED TO
12Z THIS MORNING.  THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SFC TEMPERATURES OF THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY DAWN.  THE ONE CAVEAT IS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD SIGNAL
OF STRATUS BUILDING SOUTHEAST BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY.  THIS DECK MAY
KEEP READINGS SLIGHTLY WARMER.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS
PLAYS OUT.  WHAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT THE COOLEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS WHERE THE HIGH WILL BE
SITUATED DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.  A FEW FAVORED COLD-PRONE
LOCATIONS MAY SEE READINGS FALLING TO NEAR 0C.  OTHERWISE FOR FRIDAY
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WIND THE EVENTUAL
INFLUENCE FROM SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...BUT ATTM THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE HIGH SITUATED SUCH THAT NORTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
HIGHS THEN SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE HELD IN CHECK...WITH READINGS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE OR OMEGA FOR
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION...THE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINS
DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

EXTENDED PERIODS HIGHLIGHTED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED
BY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S WILL BE INFLUENCES BY AN UPPER RIDGE
THIS WEEKEND. ACROSS WRN NEBR...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN WITH
H85 TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 15C IN THE ERN PNHDL TO NEAR 10C IN THE
EAST. THE LACK OF MIXING IN THE EAST TO LIMIT HIGH TO NEAR
60...WHILE THE WEST WILL WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS TO BRING EVEN MILDER
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION. ADJUSTED HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES
INTO THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH
THE WEST COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY.
DURING THIS TIME...HIGHS WILL MAINLY RANGE IN THE MID 70S...WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS. LOW TO ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.

THERE WILL BE A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY REMAINS A CONCERN. A WEAK COLD FRONT TO BRING A
SLIGHT COOLDOWN TO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

LOW CLOUDINESS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...WILL
PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL IMPACT
THE KVTN TERMINAL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CIGS
AROUND 2500 FT AGL ARE LIKELY. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH SOME
SCATTERED CIGS AROUND 25000 FT AGL POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...SCATTERED CLOUDS
RANGING FROM 10000 TO 20000 FT AGL ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.