Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 221819
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1219 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL THIS MORNING AS READINGS AROUND THE AREA
ARE ALREADY IN THE 50S AND 60S. THIS IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO STRONG
WARMING JUST OFF THE SURFACE ACCORDING TO THE 12Z KLBF SOUNDING
FROM THIS MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY MIXED OUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH CAN NOT ONLY BE SEEN FROM THE
TEMPERATURES...BUT THE WINDS AS STRONGER WINDS OF 20-30KTS ARE
MIXING TO THE SURFACE. UPDATED HIGHS IN SOME AREAS A FEW DEGREES
TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMPERATURES ALREADY AT THE FORECAST HIGH FOR THE
DAY AND BELIEVE WITH SUNSHINE WILL BE ABLE TO RISE ANOTHER FEW
DEGREES.

ALSO MONITORING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. KIML IS NOW REPORTING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN TO 15 PERCENT WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
WILL KEEP WATCH TO SEE IF HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHERE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SOME MIFG EARLY THIS MORNING AT KLBF COMING OFF THE OPEN WATER NEAR
THE ASOS. HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST AS IT IS NOT WIDESPREAD BUT IS
COVERED IN THE TAF FOR KLBF. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR
TERM. MODELS STILL UNDER DOING TEMPERATURES BY AT LEAST A CATEGORY.
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS UPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER MOVES OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. 850MB TEMPERATURES
SOAR TO 12C+ OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE AGAIN GONE
ABOVE GUIDANCE 3F TO 4F OVER ALL OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM 53 AT ONEILL TO 67 AT IMPERIAL. TEMPERATURES SOUTH MAY HAVE TO
BE BUMPED UP EVEN MORE THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE DRY SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF FROPA TONIGHT. HAVE CARRIED LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING AFTER 23/00Z. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE
WITH CAA AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW DEEPEN OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND DIG SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...SENDING A FRONT THROUGH
THROUGH STATE. GFS SHOWS LIGHT QPF ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER MODEL CONSENSUS IS 75
TO 100 MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE MID LEVELS. GIVEN
THE DRY ATMOSPHERE...WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING SUNDAY MORNING
POPS AT THIS TIME. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE DAY...SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE TONIGHT CAME IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...NUDGED MAX T DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES. WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED SUNDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG CAA...H85 TEMPS
DROP FROM -10C IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO 0 TO -2C IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOW LEVEL MIXING AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS
FROM FALLING OFF...AND KEPT LOW TO MID 20S IN THE GRIDS. AS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AFTER 18Z SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE WRAP AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW AFTER SUNDOWN. LIFT IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE AND NOT
VERY DEEP...PWATS BELOW CLIMO...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT AMOUNTS. BEST
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR THE SD
BORDER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH ONLY UPPER 20S/LOW 30S EXPECTED. KEPT
LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES...HOWEVER
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER FOR MONDAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT SHOULD DIE OFF BY SUNSET AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
ON TUESDAY... WITH A STRENGTHENING TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS LEAVES THE CWA IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A 150KT 300MB JET NOSES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE PLAINS.
FAVORABLE JET CIRCULATION AND BEST SNOW CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN TO
OUR WEST AND NORTH. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES.

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON THE SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
HOWEVER...WE CAN BE CONFIDENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BRINGING COLDER AIR
TO THE CWA AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS TIME...ANY
WINTRY WEATHER AROUND THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WOULD CAUSE
A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY WITH GUSTS IN SOME
AREAS UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NEBRASKA TONIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST...WITH WINDS OF 20 MPH GUSTING TO 35 MPH DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. FORECAST MODELS SHOW A 3-5 HOUR WINDOW OF TIME WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN LOWERED CEILINGS
AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. INTRODUCED MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVED CONDITIONS LATER IN THE MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...BROOKS







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