Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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341
FXUS63 KLBF 030502 AAC
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1102 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST
KANSAS WITH ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH
WESTERN NEBRASKA. SNOW FALL AMOUNTS DECREASED AS WINDS INCREASED
TODAY CREATING SIGNIFICANT SNOW DRIFTS...THE HIGHEST OF 8 FEET
REPORTED IN EUSTIS IN EASTERN FRONTIER COUNTY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

UPDATED FORECAST TO DROP PORTIONS OF COUNTIES UNDER WARNINGS.
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND FOR THE MOST PART SNOW HAS ENDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. WINDS
ARE DIMINISHING AND SNOW IS DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. HAVE UPDATED TO LET PANHANDLE COUNTIES GO. SOME HIGHER
CEILINGS MIXING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

INTENSE WINTER STORM CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...BUT BLOWING SNOW LIKELY TO
REMAIN A PROBLEM AT LEAST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83...SO WILL EXTEND THE BLIZZARD AND WINTER STORM WARNING
UNTIL MIDNIGHT /06Z/. SOME LIFT REMAINS THROUGH A SATURATED
DENDRITIC LAYER UNTIL MID EVENING...SO LIGHT SNOW LIKELY TO CONTINUE
ALONG WITH THE BLOWING SNOW. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
POSSIBLE WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS.

DECREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE
REGION. MUCH LESS WIND TOO...AND BLOWING SNOW SHOULD NOT BE A
PROBLEM WEDNESDAY. HIGHS COLD WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER...GENERALLY
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY DRIER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS EAST AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FROM
WESTERN COLORADO SOUTHEAST TO OVER THE GULF STATES. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA EXISTS. GUIDANCE LEADS TO LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
SUBZERO. WILL USE A BLEND AND LOWER A FEW DEGREES WHERE THE
DEEPEST SNOW EXISTS.

THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER AS THE SNOW SUBLIMATES
AND ERODES FROM WEST TO EAST. A LEE TROUGH FORMS ON THE HIGH
PLAINS LATE FOR LIGHT WINDS. THE EXTENSIVE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WITH GUIDANCE TRENDED DOWN A FEW
DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE. THURSDAY NIGHT A DISTURBANCES MOVES FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM MONTANA SOUTHEAST THAT WILL BRING
INCREASED CLOUDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY A PATTERN SHIFT LEADS TO A RIDGE IN
THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO NEAR
NORMAL READINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR
SNOW TO RETURN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CREATING DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW CAUSING
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS
WILL RISE INTO MVFR WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND VISIBILITIES
IMPROVING. CLEARING SKIES OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ010-
026>028.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ029-038.

&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...KECK
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...POWER



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