Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 211758

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1258 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

Issued at 705 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Updated to expand thunderstorms farther east this morning.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Models all in good agreement with short term forecast. Heat
continues today with 31c to 32c at 850mb over entire forecast area.
A frontal boundary will move south across western Nebraska today.
More or less a wind shift line with somewhat drier air behind. Have
tweaked high temperature forecast today with some lower temperatures
and higher dew points in favored locations like North Platte
Thedford Ogallala and Broken Bow. The effect on the heat index is
the same. Highs 95 to 103 and dew points in the mid to upper 60s.
Continue highlights.  Disturbance along the Colorado Nebraska border
and the surface trough axis has been sitting there all night. It
will begin to shift east this morning and have included schc pops
trw over southwest Nebraska through the morning and then expanded
schc precipitation along the front as it moves south across the
forecast area. Some mid level forcing with 700mb wave moving around
the upper high and mucapes around 1500 j/kg^2. No hailers...wind
would be main concern. Better chances over north central zones
Broken Bow to Oneill. This will continue along the front into the
early morning on Friday. Lows 65 to 70.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Another warm day is in store for Friday as warm mid-level air
continues to filter into the region. Have kept temperatures on
Friday in the mid-90s as the majority of model guidance is trending
towards the continued warmer temperatures. Heat advisories and
Excessive Heat warnings continue through Friday evening. Relief from
the warm temperatures won`t come until the weekend as a cold front
moves across central Nebraska on Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm
potential returns on Friday night and continues through most of
Saturday as this frontal system and upper level disturbance track
through the region. At this time, severe potential is low, however,
an isolated stronger storm or two can not be ruled out which is
supported by the marginal risk from SPC for Friday night and
Saturday. While temperatures begin to cool down on Saturday (highs
in the low to mid-90s), the noticeably cooler temperatures arrive on
Sunday when highs only rise into the upper 80s. Dry conditions
return for Sunday.

For Sunday night and beyond, will see high temperatures hold steady
in the upper 80s. Showers and thunderstorms are also possible
through mid-week as a result of a series of shortwaves tracking
across the north central Plains. Timing, intensity, and location of
development of these storms is uncertain and therefore, have just
put in low chance pops for most of next week (Monday through


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Isolated thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and
tonight across all of western and north central Nebraska.
Otherwise expect VFR conditions with scattered mid level clouds at
around 15,000 feet AGL. Surface winds will be light, under 10 KTS.


.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Friday for NEZ004-022-

Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Friday for



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