Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 081132
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
632 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM MONTANA INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF WRN NEBR EXCEPT FOR
LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS SWRN NEBR. THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN CO AND NRN KS...WITH LARGE COMPLEX
PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES AT 08Z RANGE FROM 57
AT VTN TO 66 AT IML.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S THROUGH
TONIGHT. H85 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 5C COOLER TODAY...RESULTING
IN HIGHS FROM NEAR 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. SKIES TO BEGIN TODAY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH SOME DEVELOPING CUMULUS IN THE AFTN ESPECIALLY
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TOP OUT FROM 10 TO 20
MPH ACROSS NCTRL INTO CENTRAL NEBR AND LIGHT AT 5 TO 10 MPH ACROSS
SWRN NEBR.

FOR TONIGHT...A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. NEAR THE NOSE OF THIS JET...WARM AIR ADVECTION NEAR H7 WILL
COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM WYOMING. THIS
APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SINCE COVERAGE MAY ONLY BE ISOLATED...HAVE MENTIONED ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE ATTM. WENT NEAR A BLEND OF THE BC MET/MAV FOR LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE /DEW POINTS NEARING 60F/
BACK INTO THE AREA. THE SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH
FAIRLY FAST NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW...AND PRODUCE A DEEPLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEARING 1500 J/KG. APPEARS THAT
TIMING OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAIN OF WESTERN NEBRASKA  ...EASTERN
WYOMING AND NORTHEAST COLORADO BY MID AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD
PERSIST/MOVE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS
/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/ ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO ADEQUATE SHEAR. HAVE
INCREASED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY...AS CONDITIONS LOOKING
RATHER FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

MORE OF THE SAME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. INSTABILITY IS BETTER THESE
DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON
THE OTHER HAND WILL BE LESS. TIMING OF ANY DISTURBANCES TO AID IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT CLEAR AT THIS POINT...SO WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR STORMS LOW. PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED THROUGH THE
REGION.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS STILL FORECASTED TO TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 08/00Z GFS MODEL RUN HAS
BACKED OFF THE COLD FRONTAL PUSH INTO THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE 08/00Z ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND CONTINUES TO BE A
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE...PUSHING THE FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS SCENARIO WOULD BE WARMER...MORE HUMID AND POSSIBLE STORMY
AS THE FRONT STALLS IN OUR REGION. THE ECMWF WOULD BE THE DRIER
SOLUTION...AS DRY CANADIAN AIR FILTERS SOUTH INTO THE NEBRASKA.
UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
COOLING TREND AND KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN AT A SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS.
EXPECT SCT080 THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...BKN080 FOR KVTN AFTER
08Z WITH TSRA POSSIBLE AT THE KVTN TERMINAL. COVERAGE TOO ISOLATED
TO MENTION IN TAF ATTM.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG








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