Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 180502
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1202 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Tue May 17 2016

A REX blocking pattern will begin to weaken for the upper ridge
axis to shift southeast tonight into Wednesday. At the surface a
weak boundary will extend northwest through western Nebraska while
the surface ridge shifts southeast for dry weather in the near
term.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Tue May 17 2016

Forecast challenge is temperatures tonight. Models have been
warmer than actual observations with low temperatures nudged
toward cooler MAV and EC guidance. Once heating ends this evening
the cloud coverage will decrease and generally clearing except
for the far southwest. temperatures tonight ranging from the
middle 30s northwest sandhills to middle 40s.

Wednesday the upper ridge weakens with the short term model more
progressive that will keep the area dry. for now left pops out as
high pressure dominates at the surface and aloft, however,
isolated showers may develop in parts of the southwest as lapse
rates steepen during the day. High temperatures for forecast into
the 60s throughout.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Tue May 17 2016

Models in fair agreement in the mid term and extended models in
fair agreement have good confidence in the forecast. 850mb
temperatures trending upwards through the forecast period with
warmest around 20C on Sunday and Monday translating to surface
temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Upper closed low to the
southwest will move across the desert southwest and move across
the southern plains as an open wave. This will keep the forecast
area dry through Saturday with upper ridge sharpening across
southern into northern plains in response to deepening upper low
moving out of the pacific northwest. Gulf opens on Saturday with
storms firing along the dry line saturday afternoon evening over
the eastern plains of Colorado and then again on Sunday similar
scenario with the dry line more to the east along the Colorado
Kansas border. Monday through Tuesday closed upper low shearing
northeast out of the Nebraska Panhandle with chances for
thunderstorms and somewhat cooler temperatures through the first
part of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Tue May 17 2016

VFR conditions continue for the next 24 hours. Generally clear
skies across north central Nebraska with some mid clouds across
southwest Nebraska. The clearing will slowly push to the
southeast overnight. By tomorrow afternoon with daytime heating,
a mid-level CU field is expected across the area, with heights
between 5k and 10k ft above ground level. Winds remain light and
variable overnight with southerly winds increasing during the
late morning/early afternoon hours with sustained 10 to 15 kts
expected. Afternoon gusts across north central Nebraska,
including the KVTN terminal, around 20 kts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Tue May 17 2016

No change to the river forecasts for the Platte river system
tonight into Wednesday. On the North Platte River the Lisco,
Lewellen and North Platte gages are all above flood stage with
minor impacts along and near the rivers as water flows into low
lying areas.

To get the latest river gage observations and forecasts visit
online at:

www.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?whfs=LBF

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Keck
SHORT TERM...Keck
LONG TERM...Power
AVIATION...Masek
HYDROLOGY...Keck



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