Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 160903

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
403 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

Latest satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across roughly the
northern two-thirds of western and north central NEB while mid- and
high-level clouds stream eastward across northeast CO to southwest
NEB and south central NEB. Radar shows modest returns in this area
indicative of isolated rain showers with KIML actually recording a
trace after 12 AM CDT. Thus some rain has managing to reach the
ground from these elevated showers despite initial surface dew point
depressions exceeding 20 degrees mid evening and dry air in the
lower troposphere. These isolated showers could be attributable to a
modest zone of lower tropospheric frontogenesis and deformation
across northeast CO-southwest NEB in an area of scant instability.
While latest hi-res guidance has had trouble depicting this
activity, it is anticipated that precipitation chances will diminish
early this morning as this forcing slides south and east out of the

Otherwise, surface high pressure will move east of the area this
afternoon into the Middle Mississippi Valley. Aloft, quasi-zonal
flow will prevail overhead western and north central NEB and
upstream there will be increasing height rises over the eastern
Northern Plains and Saskatchewan in response to a ridge building
west of the Central Plains. Later today, there is small chances for
showers and thunderstorms developing in western NEB mid afternoon-
evening as marginal elevated unstable conditions develop in eastern
NEB Panhandle and far western NEB. Moisture will be modest at the
surface and aloft in the lower troposphere with profiles
characterized by an inverted v. Isolated areal coverage is expected
with no severe weather anticipated. Current thinking is that storms
will be low-end with respect to intensity based on deterministic
guidance soundings and the latest SPC SSEO cycle at 00Z tonight.
Chances then taper off mid-late evening with increasing cloudiness
expected overnight. Patchy fog then possible late tonight with the
present forecast confining fog to Highway 26 and the Interstate 80
corridor south.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

Upper level ridge axis to spread across west central Nebraska on
Monday, temperatures will respond to the increasing subsidence and
return of southerly flow by warming into the 70s forecast area wide.
The ridge rapidly shuffles off to the east however as a northern
Rockies shortwave crosses onto the Plains.  As upper-level forcing
for ascent overspreads the area, lapse rates in the lower and mid
levels will be sufficiently steep to promote isolated thunderstorm
development.  At this point the greatest coverage looks to be across
northern and western portions of the cwa late Monday afternoon and
evening where elevated storms could produce marginally severe hail.
The activity will struggle as in encounters greater stability
eastward, especially as the atmosphere stabilizes late evening.
Similar set-up Tuesday night into late Wednesday with the approach
of a shortwave. This system takes looks to impact central Plains
more, thus coverage chances are higher for the Sandhills region. The
atmosphere is weakly unstable, severe storms are not anticipated.
Southwest flow aloft will develop late week as a broad trough digs
into the Desert Southwest.  The brunt of the system will be to the
south of the forecast area, but will retain 20-30% chances as some
of the solutions, most notably the EC, are further north.

Highs remain above normal around 70 Monday and upper 60s to mid 70s
Tuesday. Forecast highs on Wednesday contrast from the upper 50s
north, to near 70 south. Temperatures cool to the upper 50s to
around 60 by Friday and Saturday, influenced by the upper trough and
Canadian high pressure across the region.  Lows to remain near
seasonal through the extended.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

Skies will be mostly clear across western and north central
Nebraska over the next 24 hours. Some scattered high clouds around
20000 FT AGL will be possible. Winds will be variable at under 10
KTS overnight, shifting to the southeast at the KLBF terminal and
to the southeast and southwest at the KVTN terminal. Wind speeds
on Sunday will be 10 to 15 KTS.




LONG TERM...Jacobs
AVIATION...Buttler is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.