Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 011755
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1255 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. FOR TODAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY
FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THIS AFTERNOON. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AS MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. ON ITS HEELS...A SECONDARY AREA
OF MID LEVEL WAA WILL PUSH INTO SRN SD AND NERN NEBRASKA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE HEATING INVOF OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK CAP...WILL LEAD TO
TSRA INITIATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE 18Z TO 21Z TIME FRAME. SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT...THE
LATEST NAM SOLN IS INDICATING A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED CAPE AVAILABLE. WITH THIS IN MIND...DECIDED
TO LIMIT POPS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ACROSS THE NERN CWA...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40+ KTS
WILL FACILITATE SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND BEING THE MAIN
THREATS. THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE NORTH EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVER SERN SD...WHERE 0-2KM AGL HELICITIES ARE
STRONGEST INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH IS LOCATED JUST OVER THE
SD/NEBR BORDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING...BEING FOCUSED INITIALLY OVER THE NERN
CWA...SHIFTING QUICKLY EAST BY MID EVENING. WITH THIS FEATURE
PRESENT ALONG WITH LINGERING MID LEVEL WAA PRESENT...HELD ONTO
POPS IN THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT...THE LLJET
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO IOWA...DIMINISHING THE TSRA THREAT OVERNIGHT.
WENT WITH A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRACK RECORD
OF THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A ROGUE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...AS WE REMAIN ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RING OF FIRE
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR
THE NE/KS BORDER...THEN MOVE BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS AND VERY WEAK FORCING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP TSTMS FROM DEVELOPING BOTH ALONG THE STALLED COLD
FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER A FAIRLY HOT DAY MONDAY...IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SOME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT BACKS INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS. TO OUR SOUTH THE EVER PRESENT SUMMERTIME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME ANCHORED ACROSS WEST TX...WITH SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THERE IS AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THAT A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP SOME
DUE TO THE INCREASING AGREEMENT ON BOTH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THIS WAVE. SEVERAL LESS DEFINED WAVES EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS
GOING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE WAVES. AS FAR AS SEVERE
POTENTIAL...CANNOT RULE THE THREAT OUT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WHEN THE GFS SHOWS 40 TO 50
KTS OF O TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KVTN. AT
THIS TIME MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF
KLBF...HOWEVER A STRAY STORM IS POSSIBLE AND WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER MVFR AND EVEN BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
WITH WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK


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