Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 221144

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
644 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

The main sensible weather concerns in the short term period revolve
around winds today, especially with respect to fire weather. Please
refer to the fire weather section for further fire weather
information. Otherwise, temperatures ramp-up today. Today`s highs
will be largely 8-15 degrees warmer than yesterday  upper 60s to
lower 70s. Roughly 8-12 degrees above seasonal normal values. Lows
will be mild as well, lows are forecast in the lower to mid 40.
Breezy conditions today with peak gusts 20-30 MPH, highest in the
eastern Panhandle and northwest NEB. Latest IR and NtMicro RGB
imagery depict clear skies overhead. Latest mesoanalysis showed
small 3-hr surface pressure rises across western NE over the last
few hrs as surface high pressure builds into the Southern and
Central High Plains.

Dry and warm conditions today. Large scale pattern features a upper
level ridge building eastward across the Central Plains with modest
500 hPa height rises evolving overhead. Meanwhile, setup will be
conducive for downsloping winds with westerly winds at low-levels,
850 hPa to 700 hPa. This will promote the advertised warmer
temperatures and overall lower afternoon humidity today. Otherwise,
setup is decent for upper-level winds to mix down via momentum
transfer as noted in BUFKIT soundings, albeit it won`t be as breezy
as yesterday. Tonight, a weak cold front advances southeastward
across western and north central NEB. Mild lows are expected with
some clouds in place and elevated winds overnight as light breezes
prevail. Winds will shift and become northwesterly mid-evening
through the small hours.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

The main story heading into next week will be the potential for
strong winds on Monday. Have increased winds significantly from the
previous forecast for Monday afternoon. While on the fence about
issuing a high wind watch, ultimately decided to hold off as
confidence is low in getting the stronger winds to mix down to the
surface. Will keep both sustained winds and gusts just below high
wind criteria. Sustained winds are expected to top out near 37 mph
by mid afternoon, with gusts up to 50 mph across mainly the eastern
Panhandle. Will keep an eye on the wind forecast over the next 24
hours to see if headlines will be necessary.

Otherwise, a mostly quiet week is in store for north central
Nebraska. High pressure will remain in place throughout much of the
week with only a few isolated chances of precipitation on Thursday
afternoon and night. Precipitation chances are low enough that
nothing more than a mention is needed at this time. Will have to
keep an eye on this system, though, over the next several days as
temperatures will be cold enough Thursday night to change any
precipitation over to a rain/snow mix. The best chances for
precipitation development will be across southwest Nebraska.

As far as temperatures go, north central Nebraska will be looking
highly fluctuating temperatures throughout next week. Monday and
Tuesday will see high temperatures near normal (upper 50s to low
60s) before temperatures rise into the mid 70s on Wednesday.
Temperatures return to below normal for the end of the week.
Thursday highs will range from the upper 40s across the north to the
mid 50s across the south. Highs on Friday will be even cooler in the
low 40s across the entire forecast area.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Aviation concerns revolve around winds the next 24 hours.
Currently skies are clear and winds range from light and
westerly to variable. Breezy conditions are expected to develop
today with gusts up to 20-30 MPH this afternoon, highest gusts in
the eastern Panhandle and northwest NEB. Winds will lessen late
afternoon with light winds in place for much of the evening. A
cold front will advance southeast mid-evening through the small
hours, which will prompt winds to shift and become northwesterly.
Winds will then be elevated rest of tonight. Meanwhile, LLWS
conditions associated with the frontal passage is expected to
develop late tonight affecting terminals across the area,
including KLBF and KVTN. Upper height of the wind shear layer is
forecast about 1500 ft AGL with 40-50 kts winds at the top of the
layer out of the northwest. Otherwise, clouds increase tonight
across northern NEB with ceilings staying high-end VFR (greater
than 7 kft).


Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected today as downsloping
winds promote drying and warmer temperatures. While afternoon
humidity is forecast in the 20-25% across much of the area,
afternoon RH values in the upper teens are expected largely south of
Interstate 80. Nonetheless, critical fire weather conditions are not
expected as winds are not significant and afternoon humidity
stays above critical values. Gusts 20-30 MPH are expected today,
highest in the eastern Panhandle and northwest NEB.

Looking ahead, windy conditions are expected on Monday with gusts up
50 MPH expected to be common across the eastern Panhandle and
portions of north central NEB. Afternoon humidity appears to be a
limiting factor at this time with values ranging 20-30 percent
across western and north central NEB.




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