Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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010
FXUS63 KLBF 091811
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1211 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

H5 SIMILAR PATTERN TO YESTERDAY WITH WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH 100KTS-130KTS AT 250MB.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MODELS IN THE NEAR TERM VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND
JET DYNAMICS ALOFT PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
FLURRIES EARLY THIS MORNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. THE BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH WEST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. HAVE KEPT FLURRIES OVER
MAINLY CHERRY COUNTY THROUGH THE MORNING. A MIX THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME ENHANCED OMEGA THROUGH KVTN 18Z. AS THE BOUNDARY
PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE DAY AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
ONEILL VICINITY AND TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OVER NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS IN THE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 20S WITH
TEENS ONEILL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MID RANGE...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
TEMPERATURES. VERY STRONG 850HPA WAA IS PROMINENT IN THE
MODELS...MOST EVIDENT ALONG/EAST OF U.S. HWY 83...WITH TEMP AT LBF
RISING FROM 2C AT 00Z WED TO 9C AT 18Z AND FROM 0C TO 8C AT BBW. THE
00Z MOS GUIDANCE SUITE CAME IN WARMER...ECM SHOWS SFC TEMPS IN THE
50S AND 60S FOR THE AREA...MAV GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 50S...AND MET
UPPER 40S. GIVEN GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS IN THE WARMING
TREND...DID BUMP MAX TEMPS UP BUT STILL LIMITED TO NEAR THE MAV.
ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AT 280K AND 290K ALONG WITH WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE FAVORABLE FOR WARMER CONDITIONS THAN
FORECAST...BUT CONCERNS REMAIN IN GOING AS HIGH AS THE ECM. NAM AND
GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP AN INVERSION INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
GREATLY LIMITS MIXING...ALTHOUGH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FROM THE
SFC TO 500HPA EARLY IN THE DAY MAY HELP WEAKEN IT. ALSO...A SNOW
PACK REMAINS FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WIND DROPS OFF WHILE DEW POINTS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH. SREF
HINTS AT STRATUS OR FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK MID LEVEL
WAVE PASSES THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. FRONTOGENESIS AND SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE AND THE LACK OF LIFT BELOW 850HPA WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES
TO A MINIMUM. CLOUDS AND WEAK CAA WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX
TEMPS.

LONG RANGE...FRIDAY TO MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS GIVES WAY TO A FAST MOVING LOW/TROUGH ON SUNDAY BEFORE
RESUMING ON MONDAY. THE GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS APPEAR MORE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN IN UPPER JET PLACEMENT AND 850HPA TEMPS. WITH OVERALL FORCING
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKING BETTER FOR THE AREA...NOW A SCHC OF
PRECIP FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MEX AND ECE GUIDANCE ARE ALSO
SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT FOR MAX TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
850HPA TROUGH/CAA ARRIVING SATURDAY. RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ON MONDAY
WITH FAIR CONDITIONS AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS...ALLOWING A QUICK
REBOUND IN TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

STALLED BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DISSECT THE STATE...NORTH TO SOUTH.
ALONG THE BOUNDARY PERSISTENT VFR CLOUDS WITH A FEW POCKETS
LOWERING TO MVFR CATEGORY. ALSO HAD A FEW RETURNS ON RADAR AND A
BRIEF FLURRIE AT KVTN. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO PERSIST
INTO TOMORROW...HOWEVER SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A KVTN/KLBF LINE. FLURRIES CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HOWEVER EXPECT MOST
AREAS TO REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KTS
THROUGH TOMORROW 18Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...MASEK



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