Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 161717
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1117 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 344 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

H5 analysis from earlier this evening had low pressure
located off the coast of British Columbia with a trough of low
pressure extending southwest into the eastern Pacific. Downstream of
this feature, a low amplitude ridge of high pressure extended from
the northern plains into south central Canada. Downstream of this
feature, a shortwave trough was located over the Great Lakes with a
trough extending south into the Ohio valley. At the surface, a
trough of low pressure extended from northeastern Wyoming into
eastern Colorado. East of this feature, a decent pressure gradient
was noted across western and north central Nebraska. Winds were
fairly light overnight from the south at around 10 MPH. Temperatures
as of 3 AM CST ranged from 26 at O`Neill, to 36 at North Platte,
Ogallala and Imperial.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Today and Tonight...Winds and temperatures are the
main forecast concerns in the short term. For today: The surface
trough of low pressure will continue to deepen along the front
ranges of Wyoming and Colorado as a lead shortwave lifts across the
northern Rockies into southern Saskatchewan. A strong pressure
gradient will set up across the forecast area today. The latest NAM
and GFS bufkit soundings indicate sustained winds of 15 to 25 MPH
with gust potential approaching 30 to 35 MPH this afternoon. Decided
to increase winds for this afternoon and bring them in line with the
stronger CONSMOS guidance. With decent mixing today, we should have
no problem mixing down warm H85 temps to the surface. With H85 temps
ranging from 6C in the east to the lower teens in the west, highs
should reach the middle 50s in the east, to middle 60s in the
eastern panhandle. For tonight: Most areas should see some sort of
winds overnight, especially in open and elevated areas, which will
facilitate warm lows overnight. In sheltered and low lying areas,
enough dry air exists, which will allow lows to reach the lower 30s.
Elsewhere, lows will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Clouds will
also increase as well overnight, which will facilitate warmer low
temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

A quick moving shortwave trough will move east/southeast across the
central and northern plains Friday night into Saturday. An
associated surface cold front crosses the area Friday night, with
winds switching to the northwest and increase into the breezy to
windy category through Saturday. Local gusts to 35 mph are likely.
Mid level frontogenesis will increase Friday afternoon through
Friday night. The NAM model is now a bit stronger with the band, and
indicates a decent west to east band of rain across central
Nebraska. Sounding profiles through the band show mostly all rain
until very late Friday night when the band will be weakening and
precipitation ending. So little or no snow expected at this point.

Temperatures will be very mild Friday with highs in the mid 50s to
mid 60s. Cooler behind the front Saturday with highs in the 40s. A
westerly downslope wind develops Sunday, with highs back into the
50s.

Dry and mild weather continues next week. Highs Monday in the 50s to
lower 60s, will cool back a few degrees Tuesday and Wednesday as a
cold front plunges south due to an Alberta Clipper moving across
southern Canada.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1117 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

VFR conditions will continue across western Nebraska through the
forecast period as all cloud cover will be at or above 20kft.
Wind is the primary aviation weather concern as breezy southerly
winds continue this afternoon and evening. Gusts will approach
30kts at times across the Sandhills, mainly affecting KVTN, KONL,
and KBBW. A cold front will shift the wind to northwest overnight
for northern Nebraska, including KVTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Snively



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