Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 290845

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
345 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Upper low to the east has had a substantial effect on western
Nebraska`s weather for the past several days and will continue to do
so today and tonight. The low centered over Kentucky will continue
to draw cooler air aloft into western Nebraska today with 850mb
temperatures at 14c yesterday to 11c today. Highs will range from
the upper 60s in Oneill to the mid 70s at Imperial. Skies will
remain clear today and tonight with southerly winds on the backside
of surface high centered over the Lake of the Woods. Hint at some
patchy fog Friday morning early but have left out of the forecast
due to lack of confidence. Lows tonight in the 40s. Dry.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Upper level ridging will build across the central plains Friday
through Monday ahead of a deepening trough of low pressure over the
western U.S. Little chance of any precipitation this weekend, as
models are backing off on Pacific moisture making into the region.
What moisture does make it into the area will be in the mid and
upper levels of the atmosphere, so expecting at least some increase
in mid and high level clouds, but low level moisture will be
lacking, which will limit convective development. Otherwise
southerly flow will advect warmer air northward into the area, with
highs both Saturday and Sunday in the mid to upper 70s.

Attention then remains on how the upper level trough will evolve as
it progresses east into the central and northern plains next week.
Models are in somewhat better agreement tonight, and suggest a round
of strong thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of dryline
Tuesday, followed by a Pacific cold frontal passage with breezy and
now mainly dry conditions expected for Wednesday behind the front.
The drier forecast for Wednesday hinges on the fact that the models
now eject the upper low across the northern plains, with a more
southerly track closer to our area seeming unlikely at this point.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

VFR is expected along and west of Highway 83 overnight through
Thursday evening. There is a slight chance patchy fog will develop
along and east of Highway 183 for a few hours Thursday
morning...11z-13z. Local IFR is possible in this area. Otherwise
a few high clouds may invade Western Nebraska Thursday afternoon
and Thursday evening.




LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...CDC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.