Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 252349
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
649 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

At H5 there is a closed low moving into south central Canada with a
trough into the California coast. Ridging from northern Mexico into
Northern Minnesota with another closed low Over Indiana and a deep
trough into the Gulf Coast of Florida. Strong surface cold front off
the east coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Severe thunderstorms watch for southern 3 counties through 10 pm
cdt.

Cool front from Ainsworth to Ogallala this afternoon with dryline
further south into southwest Kansas.

Looking at the radar mosiac thunderstorms developing along the front
range already and moving quickly onto the plains. Things could get
going early this afternoon. HRR and NAM have development beginning
around 21z. Time tool around 2130z. These storms continue to the
south of the cool frontal boundary. With 3 hr pressure falls around
2mb looks like the front is still moving south and may shunt
convection away from the higher terrain. Limited low level moisture
have kept things fairly high based this afternoon Stronger wave
to move out of Wyoming this evening. 100kt jet with minimal low
level jet will help to move wave across forecast area quickly
tonight with most convection through 3z and ending after 6z. Low
level jet minimal early on tonight. Lows tonight slightly cooler
than last and have gone on colder side of guidance. Clearing skies
Friday with upslope flow developing as next wave moves out of the
west across western Nebraska. Highs slightly cooler around 70.
Destabilizing through the afternoon with convection developing.
Outlooked again and seems reasonable with maybe somewhat later
show. Went with increased pops and qpf.


.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Cooler with highs in the 60s on Saturday and may have to be
lowered with rain ending but still cloudy and cool with cold air
advection. Cooler through the weekend and the first part of the
week and mainly dry through Tuesday. Off again and on again
showers or thunderstorms not widespread through the end of the
week in fast northwest flow with temperatures rebounding from the
60s the first part of the week into the 70s Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Satellite imagery shows expansive clouds covering much of western
NEB and north central NEB from earlier convection that
developed. Earlier this afternoon (two-three hours ago) a line of
thunderstorms moved northeastward through Lincoln county while
diminishing in intensity then into the extreme southeastern
Sandhills. Local radar currently shows isolated rain showers in
portions of northwest NEB and the southeastern Sandhills.
Meanwhile, regional radars show higher-end convection ongoing in
western KS. Upstream, some convective showers have developed and
are moving into the far south central NEB Panhandle.

Will continue to watch development upstream in far northeast
CO/southern NEB Panhandle for thunderstorm development. Otherwise,
the threat for showers/thunderstorms will persist into the late
evening tonight mainly for the southern half of the Sandhills on
south. High cloud bases present with ceilings high-end VFR
(greater than 7 kft). Clouds should start decreasing early
morning. Increasing mid- and high-level clouds then in mid/late
afternoon tomorrow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

South Platte river on a slow fall with all gages below action
stage.

North Platte river still at action stage at Lewellen and will likely
be there for a while as releases from Wyoming continue. Releases
below Kingsley have been reduced and North Platte river remains
below action stage through the confluence.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Power
SHORT TERM...Power
LONG TERM...Power
AVIATION...ET
HYDROLOGY...Power


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