Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 230850
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
350 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

At 08z...An MCS is currently moving through central into eastern
Nebraska. A mesoscale convective vortex (mcv) is indicated along the
Lincoln and Dawson county line. Temperatures remain mainly in the
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Will carry a chance for showers and thunderstorms through 14z as
the mcv continues to lift northeast out of the eastern fa. Another
hot day with high heat indices across much of the area. Highs will
reach the upper 90s south and east of an Ogallala through North
Platte to Ainsworth line. With dewpoints once again in the mid to
upper 60s across the southeast half of the forecast area, the
excessive heat warning will continue with heat indices from around
100 to near 105 in a few locations. A heat advisory to also
continue for far southwest Nebraska. A cold front moving into the
northwest Sandhills will bring strong heating ahead of the front.
MUCapes of 3000-3500 j/kg will exist near and east of a North
Platte through Ainsworth line. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast
to develop along the front by around 21z through 00z. Deep layer
shear is not forecast to be very strong, ranging up to about 25
knots near the cold front where storms are most likely to occur.
There will however be a marginal risk for severe storms, some of
which could be strong to possibly severe east of a Valentine
through Ogallala line.

For tonight...a slight chance for storms across the southeastern
tier of counties will slowly exit the far southeast after midnight.
A few storms could be strong to possibly severe. There could be some
post frontal elevated showers or thunderstorms overnight back across
the western counties as the upper trough exits the region. Have kept
dry conditions however across the northwest. Lows tonight behind the
front will be cooler from the upper 50s northwest to the mid 60s
southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

For the most part, the current going forecast will stand for
Sunday. A weak shortwave moving into central Nebraska early Sunday
will result in a few scattered showers across the southern counties
on Sunday morning. A greater chance for showers and thunderstorms
arrives though Sunday afternoon as a front draped across central
Kansas tries to initiate storms to the north of the frontal
boundary. Best chance for storms will once again be in the southern
counties mainly south of a North Platte to Broken Bow line for
Sunday afternoon/evening. Since central Nebraska will be north of
the front on Sunday, temperatures will remain on the cooler side
(highs in the mid to upper 80s). As the front pulls eastward Monday
morning, shower and storm development will come to an end.

Surface high pressure and weak upper level ridging will then take
hold on Monday, bringing a return to dry weather. We will also see a
return of temperatures in the low 90s on Monday. For Monday through
Thursday the trend will be dry conditions in the morning/early
afternoon with showers and thunderstorms developing after 4pm.
Severe potential with these evening storms is low, however, cannot
rule out an isolated stronger storm, especially Wednesday night when
a cold front will contribute some additional forcing and instability
to the region. High temperatures will continue in the upper 80s and
low 90s through Wednesday. With the cold front passage on Wednesday,
cooler air will filter into the area allowing temperatures to drop
off into the mid 80s for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Strong to severe thunderstorms should continue to move east at
around 15 mph tonight. This would place the storms east of the
fcst area around 12z Saturday morning. VFR is expected thereafter.
There is the possibility of isolated storm redevelopment across
eastern portions of Ncntl Neb 20z- 21z Saturday afternoon. This
storm activity...if it develops...would dissipate or move east of
the fcst area around 03z Saturday evening.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ058-
069-070.

Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
NEZ006>010-026>029-037-038-059-071.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...CDC


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