Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 270451 AAB
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1151 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

The 18Z sounding indicates quite a bit of low-level dry air present
over the North Platte area. As a result, any thunderstorm
development will take a little longer than anticipated to get going
across our region. Have lowered PoPs into slight chance/low chance
until after 00Z Friday when the best chance for any thunderstorm
development is expected. While thunderstorms tonight are not out of
the question, there is also a good chance that by the time better
moisture reaches northward, overall environmental instability will
be too low to produce any severe weather and the event might just
become a heavy rain event for our area with just some embedded
thunderstorms. Overnight rainfall accumulations will be in the 0.50
to 0.75 inch range mainly south of a Imperial to North Platte to
Broken Bow line. Will stick with overnight lows in the mid-50s.

For Friday, rain showers and thunderstorms will stick around for
most of the day. Low pressure will track northeastward across the
central Plains allowing rain and thunderstorm chances to continue
through Friday. While these showers are not expected to be severe or
exceptionally heavy, it will be just enough to make conditions
messy. Rain and abundant cloud cover will result in noticeably cooler
temperatures Friday. Mid-60s to Low 70s is as high as we`re going to
see tomorrow unless we can get a break in the clouds for a couple
hours.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Friday night through Sunday...an H700MB low will lift through
Cntl/Ern Neb Friday night. The 12z NAM and 00z ECM keep this low
closed while the GFS...SREF and Canadian models suggest a more open
wave. The model timing in all solns is fairly close which produces a
likely pop Friday night east of Highway 83. A blend of the
NAM...SREF and GFS models suggests clearing should move into Wrn Neb
by 12z Saturday morning. This clearing line moves east very slowly
Saturday with wrap around showers and thunderstorms continuing
across Ncntl Neb.

Rain chances fall off Saturday night across Ncntl Neb leaving
isolated showers and thunderstorms across Wrn Neb. The operative
storm mode Friday night through Sunday will be elevated
thunderstorms versus sfc based. There is little significant elevated
CAPE but the DNGNAM reflectivity product shows some very strong
returns along and east of the H700MB low track through Cntl Neb
Saturday. This is likely the result of cold air aloft with H500mb
temperatures hovering around -15C.

High temperatures Saturday have trended down to mid 70s owing to the
expected cloud cover. This forecast uses 4 blended guidance data
sets plus bias correction...EKD...ECS...MAV and MET. A blend of
deterministic model data plus bias correction produces lower 70s for
highs Saturday. Highs Sunday of 75 to 80 are in place using the
model data. More sun is expected.

Sunday night through Thursday...a closed H500mb low will drop
through western Canada and swirl through the Nrn Plains Monday and
Tuesday. The GFS ensemble suggests likely pops during this time. The
GFS and ECM support this but mainly across Ncntl Neb closer to the
corridor of return moisture which the GFS shows over the Missouri
Basin. Pops are held to 50 percent for this reason and mainly for
eastern portions of Ncntl Neb.

The upper low should send a cold front through the fcst area some
time Tuesday or Tuesday night cooling highs Tuesday and Wednesday
into the Upper 60s to Lower 70s. Otherwise highs in the mid to upper
70s are expected. This is close to a blend of the EKD guidance the
operational GFS and ECM plus bias correction for all three data sets.
Drier air and low rain chances are in place for Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms will copntinue from
soputhwest into north central Nebraska over night. Ceilings will
Ceilings will lower into mvfr categories through the early
morning on Friday. Widespread moderate to heavy rain is expected
after midnight with visibilities lowering into the mvfr category
with rainshowers and fog. Ceilings will begin to lift through
Friday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Additional releases of water from Lake McConaughy is expected to
continue. This will cause the North Platte River at North Platte to
rise into moderate flooding (6.5 ft) and approach major flooding
(7.0 ft). At this time, the water levels on the South Platte River
are not expected to reach flood stage, however, the levels will
remain high. Increased flows on both the North and South Platte
rivers are are expected through June. In addition to increased
releases, heavy rain is forecasted over the next several days, which
will only add to the rising river levels.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Power
HYDROLOGY...Kulik



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