Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 222011

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
311 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Minimal sensible weather concerns over the next 24 hours. The main
forecast challenge in the short term period will revolve around
temperatures and then winds tomorrow. The short term period will
feature: dry conditions, minimal sky cover, breezy winds/warmer
temperatures tomorrow. Latest visible satellite imagery shows
mostly clear skies. Latest water vapory imagery shows a broad
trough over the central CONUS with cyclonic flow. Upstream, there
is a shortwave trough lifting northeastward into the Pacific
Northwest and a ridge just downstream extending from the
Southwest US to the Intermountain West.

The aforementioned ridge will become less amplified and shift
eastward over the next 24 hours, extending roughly from the
Southern High Plains to the Middle Mississippi Valley. Latest
mesoanalysis shows broad surface high pressure currently over the
Central Plains and Southern Plains with the center about
overhead and a central pressure near 1027 mb. Surface high
pressure will move southward tonight with weak low pressure
developing near the Northern High Plains. Surface low pressure
will shift south and deepen tomorrow over eastern WY with a trough
extending southward near the Front Range. A strong surface
pressure gradient will develop across the local forecast area
tomorrow from far northeast CO/northwest KS to south central SD.
Breezy southerly winds are expected tomorrow given the environment
wherein BUFKIT soundings show mean mixed-layer winds up to 30 kts
in a dry and well-mixed boundary layer. Thus gusts to 30 kts are
expected across much of western and north central NEB via momentum
transport. Otherwise, warmer temperatures will prevail Sunday
compared to today with 850 hPa increasing aloft and very
favorable insolation conditions expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

A generally unsettled weather pattern is expected to prevail
through much of the long term period. The highlights in the long
term revolve around multiple chances for precipitation and cooler
highs. Highs that are more often than not expected to be well
below their seasonal normal values Tuesday through Saturday.
Of which, Monday is expected to be the last day in the long term
period to feature highs above seasonal normal values.

The large scale pattern features a modest short wave trough
exiting the Central Great Basin at the start of the period with
westerly flow over western and north central NEB aloft. The
positive PV anomaly is expected to track east into the Central
Plains Monday bringing largely slight chances for rain to the
area. Otherwise, a mix of clouds and sun is expected on Monday.
Highs Monday are expected to range from the mid 60s to mid 70s
from northwest NEB to central NEB.

A broad mid-level trough is expected to develop and evolve over
the western CONUS Tuesday through Thursday. A cold front will
advance southward through the area late Monday-early Tuesday.
This frontal passage combined with ample cloud cover and likely
precipitation will prompt significantly cooler conditions Tuesday
compared to Monday. Another decent chance for rain exist Wednesday
night-Thursday. Beyond Thursday night, weather is largely
unsettled with slight chances/chances for precipitation continuing
into Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Visible satellite imagery showed moderate cumulus development this
morning over western NEB and across southwest to north central
NEB that is now giving giving way to sunny skies. Cloud bases are
generally 4-6 kft. VFR conditions currently prevail and are
expected to persist through the TAF period.

Attention turns to winds tomorrow wherein breezy winds are
expected with winds increasing in the morning and moderate winds
continuing through the afternoon. Peak winds 20-23 kts with peak
gusts 27-30 kts, strongest winds outside the eastern NEB




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