Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 020835
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
335 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS...ALONG THE
FORWARD EDGE OF THE WAVE. SYSTEM HAS SLOWED SOME IN THE LAST HOUR.
LOT OF LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM BUT AREA IS CONGEALING
INTO RAIN EVENT. SOME 30 TO 40 KT GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT. LLJ ABSENT THIS MORNING. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY AND CLOUD COVER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVING OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z. LOWS AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. GFS AND
EURO...AND THEIR ENSEMBLES...REMAIN IN SOLID AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS WEEKEND. A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA AS A RIDGE
AMPLIFIES UP CANADIAN COAST AND INTO ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM ADJUSTMENTS
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY WHICH
WILL AID IN THE POLEWARD FLUX OF DEEPER MOISTURE. A FEW STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE WY/NEB/SD BORDER AND TRACK
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE
A BIT OF VEERING WITH HEIGHT WHICH MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SEVERE
STORMS...HOWEVER TIMING ISSUES REMAIN AT THIS POINT AS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AFTER DARK. STORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO MANITOBA...WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT AND CANADIAN AIRMASS SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL BE WARMEST IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE TO 30C+ AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CURRENT GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LOW
90S BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS IS A LITTLE UNDERDONE. STORMS
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF A FASTER SOLUTION IS REALIZED AND THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

MODELS ARE NOW ADVERTISING A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...IN CONTRAST TO THE PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WHICH ESTABLISHED
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS AND STALLED THE COLD FRONT
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. EITHER WAY...BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S
ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY BUT HAVE TRENDED BACK ON POPS
AS SURFACE FLOW IN NOW DRIER AND LACKS THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT. POPS
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
REESTABLISHED ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH HUDSON BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

CONFIDENCE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST BEYOND 12 HOURS IS LOW TONIGHT
AS AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES SOUTHEAST FROM THE BLACK HILLS
OVERNIGHT. WITHIN THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS...A BROAD AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK FROM NWRN NEBRASKA INTO THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS...THEN IMPACTING SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND 09Z AND PERSIST THROUGH 13Z.
SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH VISBYS AS LOW AS
3SM. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END BY MID
MORNING...HOWEVER THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATTM...THE LATEST
MODEL SOLNS ARE VERY DIVERGENT IN HOW CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL
IMPACT THE PCPN THREAT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THIS
IN MIND...HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE LAST 12 HRS
OF THE TERMINAL FCSTS. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
TERMINAL...SO DECIDED TO HANDLE IT WITH A VCTS MENTION ATTM.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CLB







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