Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 240851

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
351 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

Issued at 348 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

A chaotic, highly amplified H5 pattern was noted tonight across
the CONUS and Canada. A closed low was present over southwestern
Wyoming with a deep trough of low pressure extending well south
to the US/Mexican border. East of this feature, high pressure was
anchored over the lower Ohio and lower Mississippi valleys with a
ridge of high pressure extending north into Nunavut Canada. East
of the ridge, a trough of low pressure was present across eastern
Canada into New England. Across the central plains, H5 flow was
due south to north from eastern Colorado and western Kansas,
north into the western Dakotas. Over the past couple of hours, a
lead shortwave from the upper level low has pushed into western
Kansas and western Nebraska. The approach of the shortwave and
weakening of the strong cap which was present for most of Friday,
has led to the development of thunderstorms overnight across
western Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. This activity continues
to race to the north northeast at 40 to 50 MPH overnight and as
of 3 AM CDT was located along and east of a line from near
Lexington Nebraska to just west of Valentine Nebraska. Based on
radar imagery, a cold front extended from roughly just west of
Ainsworth, to just west of North Platte, to near Hayes Center
Nebraska as of 3 AM CDT. Temperatures behind the front were in
the 50s, while readings east of the front were in the upper 60s
to lower 70s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Precipitation chances over the next 12 hours are the main
forecasting concerns in the short term. For today: The before
mentioned cold front will begin to slow its eastward progression
later this morning, washing out across central Nebraska. This
feature will transition to more of a surface trough this
afternoon with westerly winds west of the trough and southerly
winds east of the trough. East of the trough, decent low level
moisture will be present. With afternoon heating, thunderstorms
will develop along and east of the trough. This will primarily
impact the far northeastern forecast area and pops were continued
in these areas. Further west, much drier air will filter into the
forecast area from the west. Aloft a nice tongue of drier mid
level air will push into the forecast area from the southwest as
the main upper level low lifts across eastern Wyoming. Highs
today will range from the upper 70s in the far eastern forecast
area, to the upper 60s in the west. For tonight, the upper level
low will lift into the Dakotas. A strong shortwave rotating on
the southern periphery of the low, will force a secondary,
stronger cold front through the forecast area overnight. Some
gusty northwesterly winds will develop behind the front later
tonight. H85 winds will reach 40 to 50 KTS behind the front
tonight. With a decent amount of CAA behind the front, we may mix
some of these higher winds aloft to the surface, especially right
after the fropa occurs. As for the threat of precipitation, the
latest model solutions have any lingering activity well east of
the forecast area by sundown this evening. Lows tonight will
range from the lower 40s in the west to lower 50s in the east.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Cool and dry air continues to settle across the area for Sunday
with highs in the 60s. This will set the stage for a chilly
Sunday night. Canadian high pressure positioned across the high
plains will aid in clear skies and good radiational cooling.
Guidance has lows in the 30s with favored cool spots possibiliy
seeing some frost. Will continue to monitor the center of the
high, which at this time models have to the west.

The upper level ridge building across the west will shift east
during the week with the sfc high drifting slowly towards the
great lakes. This will result in a slow warming trend and dry
conditions. Temps return to above normal with highs in the 70s to
lower 80s. Next chance for precip arrives towards the end of the
forecast period as the ridge begins to break down/shift east.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

The gusty southeast winds will give way to lighter northwest or west
winds overnight as a front crosses western Nebraska.  The front
should be through KVTN around or before 07z...then through KLBF
before or around 10z. The latest hires convective allowing models
continue to suggest showers and storms lifting northeast from
northeast Colorado across the Sandhills region. Will carry VCTS at
KLBF overnight and update if storms appear likely.


.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



SHORT TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Jacobs is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.