Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 251205

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
705 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Broken band of showers and thunderstorms along Interstate 80 this
morning, with additional showers exiting north central Nebraska.
The storms are lifting to the northeast, and have recently trended
down in intensity. 3 am temps in the 50s and most areas are seeing
light winds, although locally some gusty winds are experienced
near the storms.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

The north/south band has diminished and exited to the east over
the past hour. However, an east/west band continues, along the I80
corridor. The showers are moving to the northeast. Locally
moderate rain, although have not had any reports of severe weather
for a while. With the storms headed towards the watch, and still
not out of the woods completely on weather a few of these cells
will or will not reintensify, so will not cancel the severe watch

Models struggling to handle the numerous outflow boundaries from
ongoing convection, which leads to a lower than average
confidence. The consensus is for this activity to move and exit
later this morning then to see a break in the storms before
afternoon storms redevelop. Some questions as to where the dry
line will be and if the upper level support will be strong enough
to sustain the storms. Think the dry line will stay west of North
Platte and the next disturbance will be enough to kick off some
afternoon storms. The SPC has a slight risk across most of the
area and this gives more confidence storms will refire this
afternoon/evening. With some morning sun, temps rebound nicely
with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Tonight will have to
continue to monitor storms across sw into n central Nebraska.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Sounding like a broken record as thunderstorms, some severe,
remain in the forecast through the entire forecast period. While
it will not be a total wash, as thunderstorms are expected to
move across the area in waves, expect to get wet nearly if not
every day.

Best chances for storms will be Thursday night into Friday night
as an upper level closed low moves from the 4 corners region
across the high plains into the Dakotas. Another trough digs into
the 4 corners over the holiday weekend. Models continue to send
wave after wave in the southwest flow which will continue to keep
the chance for storms in the forecast. Temps should be seasonal
although the low level moisture, east of the dry line, will make
for a sticky feeling when outside.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

A few isolated morning showers moving across the area...generally
east of both KVTN and KLBF. Portions of northern Nebraska have
seen some MVFR/IFR stratus...which is expected to dissipate over
the next few hours. The VFR and mostly sunny skies into the
afternoon hours is anticipated. A few of the models bring a
disturbance across the area with the chance for showers and
thunderstorms. Higher confidence impact to KLBF for at least some
vicinity showers and will include a mention briefly in the
afternoon. Otherwise only some passing high clouds.


Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

North Platte River: Additional releases from Lake McConaughy
occurred yesterday which will cause the North Platte River down
stream to be on the rise. The North Platte River will continue at
minor to moderate flooding into June. The South Platte was showing
signs of a slight decrease, however rainfall over the past 24
hours and additional rainfall that is anticipated over the next
week will likely cause some rises. At this time no flooding is
expected on the South Platte River. The high flows on both the
South Platte and North Platte Rivers is causing the Platte River
in eastern Lincoln county to run around minor flood stage.


.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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