Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 230028
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
728 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Dry line analyzed this afternoon across southwest Nebraska with a
stalled frontal boundary across the sandhills. A few storms starting
to fire along the frontal boundary and a decent CU field over
portions of the dry line. The stratus has broken for the most part
with the sun warming things nicely, with 3 pm obs in the upper 70s
to mid 80s. Also east of the dry line/frontal boundary, very muggy
with dew points well into the 60s.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Severe weather is the main focus this evening and will likely linger
somewhat after midnight. Afternoon special sounding showing
impressive cape and a weakening cap. Models struggling to determine
which boundary will be the focus for initial convection. Radar
already showing the line developing over cherry county with
satellite showing a nice line of towering CU across the dry line.
With the line in cherry expect that development to continue to
expand. The HRRR and the RAP favor the dry line to also iniation
over the next hour or two. Forecast will continue to include pops
for both lines, however the better upper level support arrives when
the mid level disturbance located across central Colorado lifts
across the area. Tomorrow storms should push to the east with some
clearing and temps rebounding into the 70s.


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

The main surface front will remain southeast of the forecast area
Monday night with southwest flow aloft. kept near the 20-30 pops
across the south Monday night with a weak disturbance indicated
near the surface front.

Shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast Tuesday through
Sunday. A longwave trough extending from the west coast into the
Northern Rockies will eventually bring a closed low from Colorado
into the Central Plains Thursday night into Friday. Better chances
near 50 percent are forecast Tuesday night and again Thursday
night into Friday.

Highs mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s Tuesday and Wednesday,
then cooler behind a cold front Friday in the upper 60s to lower
70s, then 75 to 80 Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 728 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Strong to severe storms will impact the KLBF and KVTN terminals
this evening and into the early overnight hours. Wind gusts to
40+ KTS are likely with any strong to severe storms. CIGS in
association with storms will fall as low as 2000 to 4000 FT AGL.
CIGS will increase to 25000 ft AGL overnight as the threat for
storms will end after 10Z Monday. Skies will clear by mid morning
Monday, continuing into the afternoon hours.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Little change with the North Platte River forecast. Could see a
little more rise, 0.1 feet at North Platte, otherwise minor to
moderate flooding continues both upstream and downstream of lake
McConaughy. A minor wave is causing the South Platte River gages to
see a little additional rises over the next few days, however all
sites remain below flood stage on the South Platte River. The Platte
River had a change today as the slight wave moving down the South
Platte River will cause the Platte River gage at Brady to reach
minor flood stage, 7.5 feet. A flood warning was issued due to the
gage site expecting to reach the minor flood stage, the current gage
reading was 7.4 feet. Also with the potential for some rainfall
across the basin, high confidence of reaching 7.5 feet and could
possible reach 7.6 feet.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Masek
SHORT TERM...Masek
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler
HYDROLOGY...Masek



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