Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 250520

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1220 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

A weak disturbance in northwest flow aloft may be sufficient for a
few showers and sprinkles to develop from the southeast panhandle
into southwest Nebraska after midnight. This agreed upon by the
NAM, HRRR, and SREF. Any rainfall amounts will be light, at up to
a tenth of an inch where any shower bands develop. Lows tonight
will remain on the cool side from the low to mid 40s north
central, where skies will remain clear to partly cloudy, with mid
40s to near 50 southwest, where cloudy skies develop. On Sunday, a
slight chance for showers will continue across the southwest,
mainly near and south of I80. Increased instability could also
cause a few thunderstorms for this area in the afternoon. Highs
fairly uniform from 75 to 78 degrees. Light winds across the
forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

For Sunday night, a warm front at 850 mb will lift northeast in
conjunction with a weak disturbance in northwest flow aloft. this
will bring a 20-30 percent chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms to southwest Nebraska during the evening, and to the
central and eastern areas after midnight.

On Monday, a broad trough will extend across the Great Lakes
Region and Midwest with upper ridging moving east into the
Great Basin. The upper flow will remain northwesterly yet on
Monday. A slight chance for showers for southeastern area as the
disturbance exits the area. A weak backdoor cool front will bring
an east to northeast wind, limiting any warmup in the east to the
mid and upper 70s, while parts of the southwest reach the lower

The upper ridge flattens out to near zonal Tuesday as a closed low
in Alberta Canada and upper trough in the Pacific Northwest moves
east. Good moisture return with dewpoints rising into the lower
60s central and east. A lead shortwave trough will move into the
Nebraska Panhandle Tuesday afternoon, to trigger thunderstorms in
the western Sandhills Tuesday afternoon. Most unstable capes
reach 2500 j/kg just east of highway 61. Strong deep layer shear
up to 50 kts will be supportive of at least a few severe
thunderstorms Tuesday late afternoon into Tuesday evening. A
slight risk for severe thunderstorm is forecast Tuesday for north
central Nebraska.

Thunderstorms chances remain Wednesday through Saturday across
portions of the forecast area as the upper trough advances across
the Northern and Central Plains into the Great Lakes Region. Highs
return to the 80s to around 90 Tuesday-Wednesday, cooling to the
upper 70s and lower 80s Friday-Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Fairly quiet aviation conditions are in store for north central
Nebraska through Sunday. Scattered to broken ceilings will be the
main concern at both TAF sites. Ceilings are expected to remain
above 5000 feet through Sunday evening. Winds remain light with
gusts under 10 knots through Sunday evening. Thunderstorm chances
are possible Sunday night, but current thinking is that
development will be after 06Z Monday.




LONG TERM...Roberg
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