Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 112337
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
537 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

A couple weather concerns are possible for tonight. First, there
is a chance for some precipitation across the extreme northeast
portion of the forecast area (east of a Burwell to Valentine line).
Precipitation is expected to start off as all rain and briefly
change over to snow before moving out of the area. Timing of
precipitation will being along the South Dakota border by 6pm
Saturday and then be out of the area around midnight. Confidence in
precipitation even making into north central Nebraska is low and any
precipitation that does develop is expected to be light and isolated
in nature.

The second main concern for tonight will be the chance for the
return of fog across southwest Nebraska. Models are pretty
consistent with strong low level moisture moving into the area once
again tonight. Will keep fog as patchy for now as the environment
doesn`t seem to be as good as last night (Friday night). Main
location for fog development will be along the route 61 corridor
extending from the Kansas border up to Hyannis. Development is
expected to begin around midnight and will quickly burn off by mid
Sunday morning.

For Sunday, high pressure builds back into the central Plains
resulting in dry conditions and a clearing of skies. Will keep
temperatures generally in the 40s across the entire area for Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

Stratus will again be present across much of western Nebraska
Monday morning, which will clear from west to east during the day.
This will hold highs in the mid 50s from North Platte through
Ainsworth east. To the west, high to reach the upper 50s to around
60.

The next substantial wave crosses the Northern and Central Plains
Tuesday afternoon and evening, but available moisture remains
east of the forecast area. A weak cold front will also move into
the area Tuesday afternoon. However, with mild 850mb temps from
14-16C, this should bring the warmest day of the week from the mid
to upper 60s. Fairly zonal flow Wednesday in advance of an upper
trough pushing through the Pacific Northwest. Wind will return to
the south with cooler 850mb temps from 2-7C, and highs in the
lower to mid 50s. Yet another wave approaches the area Thursday,
with substantial model differences. The GFS bring in the upper
trough and cold front into Nebraska, while the ECMWF is slower,
not bringing in the system until late Thursday night. Current
forecast favors the ECMWF with a slight chance for light rain,
possibly changing to light snow overnight into Friday morning
across north central Nebraska. Highs Thursday in the mid to upper
50s, cool to the upper 40s to lower 50s Friday. Northwest flow and
dry conditions Saturday with highs from 50 to 55.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 536 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

For the KLBF terminal: Expect scattered to broken CIGS tonight
ranging from 9000 to 11000 FT AGL. Some lower ceilings will
develop late tonight with CIGS around 1500 FT AGL. Skies will
scatter out by late morning Sunday with mostly clear skies
expected Sunday afternoon. For the KVTN terminal: Expect scattered
to broken ceilings ranging from 9000 to 11000 FT AGL tonight into
Sunday morning with clearing thereafter.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler



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