Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 170438
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1138 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

A slight chance for high based showers and thunderstorms this
evening across the southeast panhandle eastward to near Thedford
and Imperial. By late evening through midnight, lingering showers
over the area still possible. In fact, the rapid refresh and rap
models show showers possible into the early morning hours in west
central Nebraska. The focus will be near and east of a weak cold
front sagging southeast over the northwest forecast area. Very
little rainfall with any of the thunderstorms this evening, and
any lightning strikes could spark a grassfire which will need to
be monitored.

Mid level moisture with a modest return of gulf moisture on
Monday will bring increased instability to the eastern panhandle
and western Sandhills. An upper level trough will move into the
Northern and Central Plains Monday afternoon. With steep mid
level lapse rates 7.5-8.0 c/km and sbcapes 500-800 j/kg a 20-30
percent chance for thunderstorms near and west of highway 61.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

Thunderstorms chances are from 30 to 40 percent across north
central and central Nebraska Monday night, with a slight chance
west central and southwest. Instability is rather weak at 200-500
j/kg, and actually weakens overnight. With H5 height falls
confined to the Dakotas, and a 40 kt low level jet pointed toward
the leeside of the Black Hills and south central South Dakota, the
best focus will remain north of the area. A few high based storms
could produce marginally severe hail/wind gusts west of Valentine
to Oshkosh until 03Z, with weakening convection expected
overnight.

Another upper trough approaches the area Tuesday night providing
a better chance for showers and thunderstorms. Increased
instability and 0-3km shear from 30-45 kts sufficient for strong
storms across southwest and central Nebraska overnight. As the
upper trough crosses the area on Wednesday, showers and a few
thunderstorms remain likely across north central and central
Nebraska. Chances decrease or end across southwest Nebraska in
the afternoon.

An upper trough will dig across the Pacific Northwest Thursday,
and close off over Colorado on Friday. This southeastward
tracking system will provide better chances for showers to the
southwestern half of the forecast area Thursday night through
Friday night, while most of the northeast may remain dry. Aside
from a slight chance for morning showers Saturday, the remainder
of the weekend looks dry.

Highs remain above normal in the 70s Tuesday. Forecast highs on
Wednesday contrast from 55 to 60 north, to near 70 south.
Temperatures cool to the mid and upper 50s by Friday and
Saturday, influenced by the upper trough and Canadian high
pressure across the region. By Sunday, upper ridge on the backside
of the trough will bring warmer highs in the 60s to western
Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

Clouds will increase across southwestern Nebraska overnight and
ceilings may be around 3000 FT AGL at the KLBF terminal by 11z
Monday. Patchy fog will be possible as well with visbys as low as
4sm. Skies will clear by late morning Monday, and will persist
through the afternoon hours. Clouds will increase after 01z
Tuesday with isolated thunderstorms possible across western
Nebraska. For the KVTN terminal: Expect scattered high clouds
around 20000 FT AGL on Monday with increasing cloud cover Monday
evening. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday night. Given
the expected isolated coverage, will forgo mentioning them in the
06z TAF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler



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