Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 242033
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
333 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ALONG
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE DAKOTAS. UPPER LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA CANADIAN BORDER WITH
TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. SLIGHT RIDGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...OTHERWISE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
LOWER 48.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
AND THEN WITH TEMPERATURES BOTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW
ALSO MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW UP OVER
MONTANA WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST. THIS COOLER AIR IS SET TO START MOVING INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN FILL IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 15Z. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL DROP BY ABOUT 10C
FROM 21Z TODAY THROUGH 21Z WEDNESDAY FOR MOST AREAS. THERE WILL BE A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THEREFORE EXPECTING
WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH
SHOULD STAY BREEZY THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE DAY AS GOOD
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE ONGOING WITH A DRY 1000-500MB LAYER PUSHING INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

IN ADDITION...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA TONIGHT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS DO SHOW AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING WHILE THE SHORTWAVE
SHOULD GENERATE SOME LIFT OVER THE AREA. CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS ALSO ARE SHOWING A PERIOD OF 3-6 HOURS OF ONLY 5-10MB IN
THE 280-300K ISENTROPIC LAYER...CORRESPONDING TO ROUND 800-650MB AND
WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WOULD THINK THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST THAT MUCH LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME PRECIPITATION. WHERE THE MODELS
DIFFER IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE NAM IS MUCH
MORE SATURATED...WHERE THE GFS HAS A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER
THAT ANY RAIN WILL NEED TO GET THROUGH. WITH A GOOD DRY LAYER SEEN
AT THE CURRENT TIME...WILL PLAY THE DRIER ROUTE FOR THE FORECAST
TODAY AND JUST KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT BEING
CONCENTRATED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS LED TO THE
DETERMINATION ON ENDING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE...CONTINUE TO HAVE A MENTION OF A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW AFTER 06Z OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS AS TEMPERATURES
DROP TO OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER WILL BE HIGHER OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS
MOVE IN ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH SYSTEMS DISCUSSED ABOVE. WINDS WON/T
DROP OFF COMPLETELY SO THAT AND THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM TOTALLY DROPPING OFF. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE THE COLDER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY MORNING. THEN LOOKING TO WEDNESDAY...AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...THE AIRMASS WILL BE ABOUT 10C COOLER THAN TODAY
SO LOOKING AT HIGHS A BIT COOLER...IN THE 50S. DID GO ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE VALUES THOUGH AS THERE SHOULD BE GOOD SUNSHINE AND
AS OF LATE WARMER HAS BEEN THE TREND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MID TERM AND BEGIN TO HAVE SOME
TIMING AND TEMPERATURE ISSUES IN THE EXTENDED. GFS HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON PATTERN AND PRECIPITATION AND TREND MORE TOWARDS ITS
SOLUTION. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FAST NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING. COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE LEFT A MIX IN THE MORNING AND RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND THE
50S SOUTH. COOL...CLOUDY AND BREEZY. UPSLOPE FLOW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS RETAINED HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. RIDGE PUSHES EAST WITH WARMER DRIER AIR.
SURFACE TROUGH BUILDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. 60S PUSH WELL EAST
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH GOOD WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 70S AND DRY. SATURDAY NIGHT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH
CENTRAL AS UPPER LOW MOVES ALONG CANADIAN BORDER. SLIGHTLY COOLER
SUNDAY AS PACIFIC HIGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. MONDAY
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH AND RIDGE EXPANDS
AHEAD OF UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE BAJA AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BUT HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW WITH NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING THEN TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN AND
POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEBRASKA...GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF KVTN. THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...WITH MINIMAL IF ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR THE PINE RIDGE /KIEN AND KCDR/. SHOULD GET SOME LOWER
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT...BUT VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD
SUGGEST CEILINGS WILL STAY VFR. WINDS WILL SWITCH BACK TO THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 25KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS WINDS GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH...ACCOMPANIED
BY VERY DRY CONDITIONS. THE EXTREMELY DRY DEWPOINTS HAVE STAYED JUST
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL DISTRICTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE
CONDITIONS OF THE FUELS AND THE STRONG WINDS...HAVE NO THOUGHTS OF
CANCELING THE RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME. NEAR AND AFTER
SUNSET...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BEGIN TO DECOUPLE...WITH THE WINDS
SUBSIDING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING. THIS WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS AGAIN
EXPECTING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY. DUE TO THE
WINDS...FIRE CONCERNS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ON WEDNESDAY OVER
SOME AREAS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE. ON THURSDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS LIKELY TO STAY FAIRLY
HIGH. THEN LOOKING INTO THE WEEKEND...WARMER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE REGION WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY THREATS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS
GREEN-UP IS NOT LOOKING TO BE ANYTIME SOON WITH LACK OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ210-219.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...BROOKS
FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS






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