Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 241120 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
620 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TODAYS CONVECTION FOLLOWS THE ECM AND HRRR-CR
MODELS. THE MCS WHICH WORKED THROUGH SWRN NEB AND NCNTL KS
THURSDAY SHOULD PRODUCE A RAIN COOLED MESO HIGH WHICH WOULD FORCE
SOME THE VERY HIGH DEW POINT AIR WEST TOWARD IMPERIAL AND THIS
PROCESS APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY AT 07Z. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK SFC
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH WRN NEB WHICH SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY
ALONG THE KS BORDER. THE HRRR SHOWS ISOLATED DISCRETE CONVECTION
FORMING OVER NERN COLO THIS AFTN AND ALONG THE STALLED FRONT NEAR
THE KS BORDER. THIS CONVECTION COULD MERGE TO FORM A MCS WHICH
WOULD TRACK EAST THROUGH SRN NEB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THIS ECM AND NAM ALSO SHOW PARTS OF NCNTL NEB DESTABILIZING
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO NEB.

CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE WITH A
BELT OF 40 KT TO 50 KT 300MB WINDS OVERHEAD. SBCAPE IN THE ECM
RISES TO AROUND 3500J/KG. THE NAM SHOWS 4000+ SBCAPE AND NO CAP
ONCE AGAIN...A BIT SOUTH OF THE ECM WHICH IS CENTERED ALONG I-80.

THE MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION COULD LAST THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING OR MOVING EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY
THE RESULT OF AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT STALLED ALONG THE KS BORDER
AND A 30KT 850MB JET OVER WRN KS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

ACTIVE AND WARM WEEKEND. RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE
A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NW FOR THE WEEKEND THEN LIFT
TO S CENTRAL CANADA BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL SEND THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING TO THE OHIO/TENNESSE RVR
VALLEYS.

SATURDAY MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH A TROUGH STRETCHED FROM A SFC
LOW OVER WESTERN S DAKOTA SOUTHWARD ALONG WESTERN PLAINS. VERY
HUMID AIR REMAINS EAST OF THE TROUGH/SEMI DRY LINE WITH DEW PTS
WELL INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70. BEHIND THE TROUGH DEW PTS AROUND
60. MORNING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE EAST AS
DEPARTING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD LINGER IN THE CWA. SHOULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY AS THE ATMOSPHERE RELOADS FOR
ACTIVITY TO FIRE NEAR/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DECENT CAPE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPES OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG AND
GOOD SHEAR. SHOULD SEE SOME ROTATING SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THE TROUGH WILL HAVE SLIDE TO THE EAST HOWEVER WILL STILL
SEE A DRY LINE ACROSS THE WEST. THE DRY LINE COULD BE ANOTHER
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER MODELS NOT AS ACTIVE UNTIL THE
LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE HOT ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS INTO THE 90S. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST WITH
NOTICABLY COOLER TEMPS...MID 80S...HOWEVER MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE AND WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...COULD STILL SEE SOME STORMS.
STORMS MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 22Z-04Z. STORM MOTION WILL CARRY THE STORMS
GENERALLY EAST...PERHAPS NORTHEAST INTO CUSTER COUNTY.

STORM ACTIVITY COULD LAST UNTIL 09Z OR LATER AS A DISTURABANCE
ACROSS ARIZONA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NEBRASKA
TONIGHT.

THE SREF SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR CIGS 09Z-12Z SATURDAY
MORNING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
ARW-NMM SOLNS BUT NOT THE NAM.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC



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