Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 241806
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
106 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

At 08z...The surface front extended from the Oklahoma panhandle
through far sern Nebraska...then northward through central
Minnesota. A northern stream trough extended from sctrl Montana into
western North Dakota.

Most of the scattered shower or thunderstorm activity was located
near and north of the main surface front in Kansas into the Oklahoma
panhandle region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Today...weak high pressure will extend from the Dakotas into
Nebraska as the surface front becomes more east-west oriented across
central Kansas. A noticeable reprieve from the heat today. Highs
today will be 5 to 15 degrees cooler from 85 to 89 degrees with
lower dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s. It should be a dry day
across western and north central Nebraska, with pops to our north
across parts of South Dakota from the northern stream trough, to
our south near the stalled surface front in Kansas, and also along
the front range where easterly upslope flow will exist.

For tonight...a slight chance for storms across southwest Nebraska,
mainly south of Interstate 80. Storms which initiate in far sern
Wyoming and the front range of Colorado should move east-southeast
into southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas overnight. Models
differ on placement of resultant QPF, favoring the latest GFS and
HRRR model solutions. With skies becoming mostly clear overnight and
a weak ridge of surface high pressure, lows tonight will cool into
the upper 50s to lower 60s most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Surface high pressure and weak upper level ridging will remain
situated over the region on Monday, bringing a return to dry
weather. Shower and thunderstorm chances return, however, on Monday
night. A shortwave is expected to drop southward across South Dakota
late Monday afternoon and slowly make its way towards the South
Dakota/Nebraska line by early Tuesday morning. For this reason,
convection will be confined mainly towards the northern half of the
CWA. The first chance of shower development will not occur until
after 00Z Tuesday (7pm Monday) with the best chance of thunderstorms
occurring between 12am and 6am Tuesday morning. With this feature so
small and not very well defined this far out in the forecast
process, it was hard to put anything more than low chance pops for
the extreme northern portion of Nebraska along the South Dakota
border. With the most current SPC outlook still including this
northern portion in a marginal risk, an isolated severe storm is not
out of the question as this trough drops southward. The question of
where and when a severe storm develops exactly is still uncertain
and this only adds to the reason only low chance pops are in the
forecast at this time.

Thunderstorm chances remain for Tuesday through Friday as a series
of disturbances impact the region through the end of the week. While
showers and thunderstorms are possible all day, the best chance of
convection will be in the afternoon/early evening hours when daytime
heating help to destabilize the environment. Warming temperatures are
also expected through Wednesday with high temperatures rising up
into the low to mid-90s Monday through Wednesday. A weak cold front
tracking over central Nebraska on Wednesday will allow a slightly
cooler airmass to filter into the region towards the end of the
week. High temperatures will be in the mid-80s through the remainder
of the week. Overnight low temperatures will generally be in the mid-
60s Monday night through Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

A few isolated high based showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon and tonight, otherwise expect VFR at all
locations with easterly surface winds at 5 to 10 KTS.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Taylor



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